ESPN radio reporting Mets/White Sox talks heating up...

[BearSox]

I see that his performance-to-cost ratio is very favorable, but I just don't know how anyone can deal real talent for him. With someone like Javy, yeah he makes a lot more money, but you still have the upside of a #2-like season with the downside of a #3/#4-type season. Sonnanstine just strikes me as the type of guy who is always on the edge of disaster, every single game, every single situation. At least Javy has the ability to take over a game and dominate.

 

I just don't know how any team can watch Andy Sonnanstine pitch and say, "You know what? I'm gonna go ahead and trade one of my best pitching prospects, a guy with twice the ceiling, for a junkballer who can spot his junk. That sounds like a great idea." Paul Byrd is capable of doing the same thing and doesn't cost any top talent, just tha cheddah. I don't even know if Byrd is a Type B free agent.

I completely agree. And what was worse was seeing him completely shut down our offense when we faced him.

[Dick Allen]

I see that his performance-to-cost ratio is very favorable, but I just don't know how anyone can deal real talent for him. With someone like Javy, yeah he makes a lot more money, but you still have the upside of a #2-like season with the downside of a #3/#4-type season. Sonnanstine just strikes me as the type of guy who is always on the edge of disaster, every single game, every single situation. At least Javy has the ability to take over a game and dominate.

 

I just don't know how any team can watch Andy Sonnanstine pitch and say, "You know what? I'm gonna go ahead and trade one of my best pitching prospects, a guy with twice the ceiling, for a junkballer who can spot his junk. That sounds like a great idea." Paul Byrd is capable of doing the same thing and doesn't cost any top talent, just tha cheddah. I don't even know if Byrd is a Type B free agent.

2008

AS 13-9 4.38 ERA 1.29 WHIP .277 BAA 2 post season wins 400,000k salary

JV 12-16 4.67 ERA 1.32 WHIP .263 BAA 0 post season wins 11,500,000 salary.

 

If, as you say, Javy's downside is a #3 or #4 starter, this guy is already better than that and he makes peanuts. Javy has only had 1 year the last 5 with an ERA lower than AS posted in 2008. Could you imagine what Javy's ERA was if he had to face Boston and NY as much as Tampa pitchers do?

 

I don't see how any team can watch Javy pitch and think they are going to get a guy who is going to be anything but average at best when all the results are in, at a price which is a lot more than average. I hope KW can find someone who thinks Javy will put it all together consistently for them.

Edited November 26, 2008 by Dick Allen

[BearSox]

2008

AS 13-9 4.38 ERA 1.29 WHIP .277 BAA 2 post season wins 400,000k salary

JV 12-16 4.67 ERA 1.32 WHIP .263 BAA 0 post season wins 11,500,000 salary.

 

If, as you say, Javy's downside is a #3 or #4 starter, this guy is already better than that and he makes peanuts. Javy has only had 1 year the last 5 with an ERA lower than AS posted in 2008. Could you imagine what Javy's ERA was if he had to face Boston and NY as much as Tampa pitchers do?

That's fine and dandy, but simple fact is the Sonnanstine does not have good stuff, at all, and I will bet anyone that he will have a worse season then Javy next year. Sonnanstine simply had a good year, but I'd be shocked if he ever repeats his 08 preformance. Maybe his first year in the NL, but that's all.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

That's fine and dandy, but simple fact is the Sonnanstine does not have good stuff, at all, and I will bet anyone that he will have a worse season then Javy next year. Sonnanstine simply had a good year, but I'd be shocked if he ever repeats his 08 preformance. Maybe his first year in the NL, but that's all.

I'm with you there 100%. Of all the young pitchers who broke out last year, Sonnanstine would be the most likely in my mind to regress, and regress severely. If I'm in the Rays FO and someone wants to deal better talent for him, I'd do that in a heartbeat and keep Edwin Jackson.

 

I read on another board where someone was trying to put forth the argument that Sonnanstine is better than Jackson, basically saying that Jackson was "lucky" because of his poor BB rate and that Jackson benefitted from superb Rays defense. Sonnanstine OTOH wasn't a recipient of luck because he had control.

 

I would easily counter that saying both pitchers benefitted from the Rays superb defense, and that if anyone was "lucky" it was Sonnanstine. Jackson posted the numbers he did because his walk rate actually held him back. Jackson got by on great stuff and bad control, nothing more than that. He's still developing, and if anyone is lucky in regards to Jackson, it is the rest of the league that is lucky Jackson hasn't figured it out yet. If Jackson does, he's a top of the rotation guy. Meanwhile Sonnanstine was lucky to face overaggressive hitters who couldn't sit back and look to go up the middle or the other way against him. Sonnanstine was lucky that his smoke-and-mirrors junk pitching fooled Major League hitters in his first season because he had no problems dropping below the hitting speed. As soon as the league adjusts to his garbage, he's a 5.50 ERA waiting to happen, even pitching in a dome with great defense behind him.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

2008

AS 13-9 4.38 ERA 1.29 WHIP .277 BAA 2 post season wins 400,000k salary

JV 12-16 4.67 ERA 1.32 WHIP .263 BAA 0 post season wins 11,500,000 salary.

 

If, as you say, Javy's downside is a #3 or #4 starter, this guy is already better than that and he makes peanuts. Javy has only had 1 year the last 5 with an ERA lower than AS posted in 2008. Could you imagine what Javy's ERA was if he had to face Boston and NY as much as Tampa pitchers do?

 

I don't see how any team can watch Javy pitch and think they are going to get a guy who is going to be anything but average at best when all the results are in, at a price which is a lot more than average. I hope KW can find someone who thinks Javy will put it all together consistently for them.

No, see that's the thing. Andy isn't better than Javy, at all, and if you adjust for park I'm sure their numbers are a lot closer.

 

Basically, Javy had a bad year. We all saw in 2007 what Javy can do in a good year. We all have seen what Javy's ceiling is.

 

In his first year, Sonnanstine has already surpassed his ceiling IMO. When the league adjusts to him he's going to suck, and his stuff is so poor that unlike Javy he's not going to have to the stuff to keep him out there. Look at that BAA, watch the guy pitch, and tell me he's better than Javy. Javy has been doing his thing in the Majors since 1998, and Javy's struggles are mainly because the opposition just waits on him to throw a lot of pitches and start leaving his offspeed stuff up in the zone. Andy Sonnanstine got away with hanging his offspeed stuff every single time he pitched against us last year, and as soon as our hitters took the right approach against him, he started getting hit and then was pulled. He's not going to get away with that next year IMO.

[SoxFan562004]

No, see that's the thing. Andy isn't better than Javy, at all, and if you adjust for park I'm sure their numbers are a lot closer.

Basically, Javy had a bad year. We all saw in 2007 what Javy can do in a good year. We all have seen what Javy's ceiling is.

 

In his first year, Sonnanstine has already surpassed his ceiling IMO. When the league adjusts to him he's going to suck, and his stuff is so poor that unlike Javy he's not going to have to the stuff to keep him out there. Look at that BAA, watch the guy pitch, and tell me he's better than Javy. Javy has been doing his thing in the Majors since 1998, and Javy's struggles are mainly because the opposition just waits on him to throw a lot of pitches and start leaving his offspeed stuff up in the zone. Andy Sonnanstine got away with hanging his offspeed stuff every single time he pitched against us last year, and as soon as our hitters took the right approach against him, he started getting hit and then was pulled. He's not going to get away with that next year IMO.

it's a rough stat, but ERA + is league and ballpark adjusted, with 100 being an average pitcher...

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sonnaan01.shtml

 

AS pitched about 190 innings last year and put up a 102 ERA+

 

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/v/vazquja01.shtml

 

Javy put up a 98 ERA+, so using that stat they were both about league average pitchers.

 

Obviously it's hard to compare them using stats since AS has pitched only 2 years, 130 innings in his first and 190 innings in his second.

 

For his career Javy is 105 pitcher, but he goes up and down i.e. having a 127 the year before.

Edited November 26, 2008 by SoxFan562004

[Dick Allen]

No, see that's the thing. Andy isn't better than Javy, at all, and if you adjust for park I'm sure their numbers are a lot closer.

 

Basically, Javy had a bad year. We all saw in 2007 what Javy can do in a good year. We all have seen what Javy's ceiling is.

 

In his first year, Sonnanstine has already surpassed his ceiling IMO. When the league adjusts to him he's going to suck, and his stuff is so poor that unlike Javy he's not going to have to the stuff to keep him out there. Look at that BAA, watch the guy pitch, and tell me he's better than Javy. Javy has been doing his thing in the Majors since 1998, and Javy's struggles are mainly because the opposition just waits on him to throw a lot of pitches and start leaving his offspeed stuff up in the zone. Andy Sonnanstine got away with hanging his offspeed stuff every single time he pitched against us last year, and as soon as our hitters took the right approach against him, he started getting hit and then was pulled. He's not going to get away with that next year IMO.

Javy has sucked 4 of the last 5 years. A GM counting on Javy "hitting his ceiling" better have a resume ready.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Javy has sucked 4 of the last 5 years. A GM counting on Javy "hitting his ceiling" better have a resume ready.

He's underperformed much of his career, but he's "fooled" Brian Cashman, Kenny Williams, and whoever was D'Backs GM when they traded for him.

 

The point is, Javy's ceiling is high and his floor is where he is. IMO, Sonnanstine's ceiling was what he did last year, and his floor is somewhere in Triple A.

 

Edit: People getting excited over the possibility of acquiring Andy Sonnanstine are probably the same people who got all excited after Lance Broadway's start against the Royals during '07 garbage time.

Edited November 26, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[Dick Allen]

He's underperformed much of his career, but he's "fooled" Brian Cashman, Kenny Williams, and whoever was D'Backs GM when they traded for him.

 

The point is, Javy's ceiling is high and his floor is where he is. IMO, Sonnanstine's ceiling was what he did last year, and his floor is somewhere in Triple A.

 

Edit: People getting excited over the possibility of acquiring Andy Sonnanstine are probably the same people who got all excited after Lance Broadway's start against the Royals during '07 garbage time.

I wouldn't be excited about Sonnastine, but I'd be less excited about paying Javy $23 million the next 2 seasons. If my choice was Sonnanstine + $11 million a season to play with or Javy, I'd pick Sonnanstine.

 

I really couldn't care less about ceilings and floors with guys who have been around a decade or so. I look for results.

[BearSox]

I'm with you there 100%. Of all the young pitchers who broke out last year, Sonnanstine would be the most likely in my mind to regress, and regress severely. If I'm in the Rays FO and someone wants to deal better talent for him, I'd do that in a heartbeat and keep Edwin Jackson.

 

I read on another board where someone was trying to put forth the argument that Sonnanstine is better than Jackson, basically saying that Jackson was "lucky" because of his poor BB rate and that Jackson benefitted from superb Rays defense. Sonnanstine OTOH wasn't a recipient of luck because he had control.

 

I would easily counter that saying both pitchers benefitted from the Rays superb defense, and that if anyone was "lucky" it was Sonnanstine. Jackson posted the numbers he did because his walk rate actually held him back. Jackson got by on great stuff and bad control, nothing more than that. He's still developing, and if anyone is lucky in regards to Jackson, it is the rest of the league that is lucky Jackson hasn't figured it out yet. If Jackson does, he's a top of the rotation guy. Meanwhile Sonnanstine was lucky to face overaggressive hitters who couldn't sit back and look to go up the middle or the other way against him. Sonnanstine was lucky that his smoke-and-mirrors junk pitching fooled Major League hitters in his first season because he had no problems dropping below the hitting speed. As soon as the league adjusts to his garbage, he's a 5.50 ERA waiting to happen, even pitching in a dome with great defense behind him.

Imagine if you could fuse Sonnanstine and Jackson into one pitcher. Damn, talk about an ACE. Someone with the pure overpowering stuff of Jackson to go along with the finesse and control of Sonnanstine would be one damn good pitcher.

[knightni]

Imagine if you could fuse Sonnanstine and Jackson into one pitcher. Damn, talk about an ACE. Someone with the pure overpowering stuff of Jackson to go along with the finesse and control of Sonnanstine would be one damn good pitcher.

Jackanstine...

 

Sounds very Halloween-ish.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Imagine if you could fuse Sonnanstine and Jackson into one pitcher. Damn, talk about an ACE. Someone with the pure overpowering stuff of Jackson to go along with the finesse and control of Sonnanstine would be one damn good pitcher.

You'd basically be talking about the right-handed CC Sabathia, being someone who can hit his spots and change speeds on pretty much everything, and has the ability to gear it up in the high-90's to blow people away if he feels like it.

[Gregory Pratt]

Everybody seems to have their own definition of what a 'big game' is when it comes to Javy.

 

I think his win against Cleveland on September 3rd was a very big game.

 

The Sox were reeling... having just lost 5 of their last 6 games... on the verge of getting swept by a very hot Cleveland team on the road... the Sox were tied in the standings with Minnesota...

 

Danks got knocked out in 4 innings the day before...

 

Buehrle got slapped around in 4 innings just before that...

 

And Javy stepped up, shut down the Tribe (in Cleveland) and put the Sox back in 1st place.

 

Anybody who suggests this was not a big game is kidding themselves.

 

That's fine, but here's my problem with that: it's just one game. I don't know if this example exists in real-life, but it's akin to pointing out that one time, Shaq was getting The Treatment, and he wound up scoring his free throws and the other team lost because of it. That doesn't mean he's a clutch free throw shooter or a good one.

 

Vazquez, in his career, is bad in pressure situations and "big games" and big "spots." In hundreds of games, not one or two. That isn't to say he has his virtues, but the ability to win games when his team needs them isn't really one of them.

[greg775]

Trade Javy with Jermaine in a blockbuster; sign Garland as an inning eater. He's better than Byrd.

Garland is less annoying than Javy. Just do it.

[caulfield12]

1) Garland won't come back here, I think he'll end up in the NL

2) He's not worth whatever he is asking..which is about the same as Vazquez makes

3) We need younger/cheaper options at 4th/5th starter, not MORE expensive (per KW's recent pronouncements)

4) He'll get 3-4 years, JR and KW don't like to give long-term deals, Buehrle was the one exception and Contreras

[Jordan4life_2007]

Word is Brian Fuentes is looking for 3 years at more than 11 million per year. Yes, Brian Fuentes. So you could imagine what K-Rod is going to command. I expect talks between the Mets/Sox regarding Jenks to 'legitimately' heat up in the coming days.

[Dick Allen]

That's fine, but here's my problem with that: it's just one game. I don't know if this example exists in real-life, but it's akin to pointing out that one time, Shaq was getting The Treatment, and he wound up scoring his free throws and the other team lost because of it. That doesn't mean he's a clutch free throw shooter or a good one.

 

Vazquez, in his career, is bad in pressure situations and "big games" and big "spots." In hundreds of games, not one or two. That isn't to say he has his virtues, but the ability to win games when his team needs them isn't really one of them.

Exactly. Its like saying a guy who hits .125 in what are deemed to be clutch situations are clutch players because that one or two or however many times, they did get a hit. When you make $11.5 million, your not supposed to fold like a cheap card table down the stretch.

Edited November 28, 2008 by Dick Allen

[greg775]

1) Garland won't come back here, I think he'll end up in the NL

2) He's not worth whatever he is asking..which is about the same as Vazquez makes

3) We need younger/cheaper options at 4th/5th starter, not MORE expensive (per KW's recent pronouncements)

4) He'll get 3-4 years, JR and KW don't like to give long-term deals, Buehrle was the one exception and Contreras

 

I respectfully disagree with you a lot.

1.) Why wouldn't Garland come back to Chicago? Great city. He won a title here.

2.) You say he's not worth whatever he's asking. Who the hell in baseball today IS WORTH what they are asking/making?? I mean if you want us to have all guys in the first 3-4 years of their careers making peanuts, say so. But my god. How many players do you think are worth what they make? None? I'd agree with that. No ballplayer who is eligible for free agency is worth what he's making.

3.) Garland is not exactly old I realize what Kenny said about money.

4.) If JR and KW won't give a 3-4 year deal, then I guess just keep getting guys like Danks and Floyd. Even the Royals have signed some free agent pitchers like Meche. You think Meche is worth what he is making? Of course not. They are paying him anyway.

 

I think there's a decent chance Danks and Floyd will regress next season. Hopefully they won't. We need some veteran pitchers and Oz obviously wants nothing to do with Javy.

My rotation: Mark, Danks, Floyd, Garland, Byrd.

I think my rotation is a division winner.

Edited November 28, 2008 by greg775

[bmags]

I don't think baseball players are that overpaid considering the amount of money baseball makes and the amount of players who can compete at that skill level.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I respectfully disagree with you a lot.

1.) Why wouldn't Garland come back to Chicago? Great city. He won a title here.

2.) You say he's not worth whatever he's asking. Who the hell in baseball today IS WORTH what they are asking/making?? I mean if you want us to have all guys in the first 3-4 years of their careers making peanuts, say so. But my god. How many players do you think are worth what they make? None? I'd agree with that. No ballplayer who is eligible for free agency is worth what he's making.

3.) Garland is not exactly old I realize what Kenny said about money.

4.) If JR and KW won't give a 3-4 year deal, then I guess just keep getting guys like Danks and Floyd. Even the Royals have signed some free agent pitchers like Meche. You think Meche is worth what he is making? Of course not. They are paying him anyway.

 

I think there's a decent chance Danks and Floyd will regress next season. Hopefully they won't. We need some veteran pitchers and Oz obviously wants nothing to do with Javy.

My rotation: Mark, Danks, Floyd, Garland, Byrd.

I think my rotation is a division winner.

I could be wrong, but I don't think the Sox are going to trade a bunch of very good players on below-market deals in order to sign mediocre players at or above market value. Kenny will be looking for good, young MLB-ready players to step in now, and if he does give $11-13M to a player, it probably won't be Garland. The Sox even came out and said after the Garland trade that they felt he'd reached his ceiling and wasn't capable of replicating his '05 season.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I don't think baseball players are that overpaid considering the amount of money baseball makes and the amount of players who can compete at that skill level.

The Giants, speaking on Barry Zito, and the Angels, speaking on GMJ, would probably disagree. The difference between a veteran player on a large free agent contract and a prospect or AAA player making league minimum can easily be marginal or worse on the field and astronomical on the payroll. The reason we're trading our own bargain in Javy Vazquez is because we're looking for similar or better performance for $400K. Makes sense.

 

That said, the players deserve whatever the market will bare. It's unfortunate when s***ty GM's offer s***ty contracts to s***ty players that upset the market, but these things will always work themselves out in the end. You don't see teams like Texas and Arizona overpaying on the free agent market anymore, and for good reason.

[bmags]

The Giants, speaking on Barry Zito, and the Angels, speaking on GMJ, would probably disagree. The difference between a veteran player on a large free agent contract and a prospect or AAA player making league minimum can easily be marginal or worse on the field and astronomical on the payroll. The reason we're trading our own bargain in Javy Vazquez is because we're looking for similar or better performance for $400K. Makes sense.

 

That said, the players deserve whatever the market will bare. It's unfortunate when s***ty GM's offer s***ty contracts to s***ty players that upset the market, but these things will always work themselves out in the end. You don't see teams like Texas and Arizona overpaying on the free agent market anymore, and for good reason.

 

but those are two bad contracts, as I'm sure there are more, but I'd imagine just as bad as any other private field.

[klaus kinski]

They just ran a crawl on ESPN from Gammons saying the Mets think they can sign Frankie Rodriguez for 3 yrs because "there are no other takers"

[chunk23]

If he can be had for 3 years there will be many more takers. Lots of teams would want him for three, it's the fact that he wants five that is the problem.

[bschmaranz]

From mlbtraderumors.com

 

Let's dig into the latest column from John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus.

 

Perrotto speaks of whispers of a possible White Sox-Mets blockbuster. The Mets would receive Jermaine Dye and Bobby Jenks and the White Sox would receive Fernando Martinez among others.