Baseball America's Top 10 White Sox Prospects

[Marty34]

Chris Carter/Quentin

B. Allen

Michael Morse

Ordonez

Lee

Durham

Crede

Rowand

Beckham was a great hitter at UGA and his first year with us, until fading at the end

Alexei Ramirez

Dayan Viciedo

Jeremy Reed

Jeff Abbott was a great hitter in college/minors, like J. Reed

Chris Young

Morel has the ability to stick around for 5+ years

 

It's not like the White Sox system can't produce any hitters. The big misses on Fields/Anderson/Borchard are partly what have created that perception.

 

 

That's a sorry list particularly when you consider the players that were drafted.

Edited January 12, 2012 by Marty34

[gatnom]

But if the 10 Nick Puntos were as highly regarded coming up as our own Nick Punto (Beckham), they could be the basis of a really strong farm system.

 

This is true. However, it also highlights the difficulty people have with focusing on farm system rankings. I think a lot of people are missing the forest for the trees with this issue. The fact that we are ranked essentially last among these experts is merely a symptom for our poor drafting philosophy which leads to our largely unproductive system. As I was saying earlier, not only do you need to develop major league players, but you also need to develop some impact players within that group in order to have a truly productive system. Developing Morel and Beckham (currently) along with a couple of impact relievers over a 4 year period is not all that good. Sale could obviously move from impact reliever to impact starter, and Beckham could obviously move from role player to impact middle infielder. But, as of right now they are not.

 

I think it says a lot about us as an organization that our only two potential impact players were only drafted because we had to be in a high position to get them. Although, I guess I am selling our toolsy outfielders with strikeout problems in A ball a little bit short.

 

 

 

[gatnom]

The ideal farm sytem would produce high quantity and quality players. But most don't.

 

I would prefer the 10 MLB players vs. 1 superstar for a few reasons.

 

1. In baseball 1 player will not win you anything.

2. You can field a team of the 10 players or package a deal of 5 for a better player and still have the team of 5 average players and one really good one.

 

It's a matter of preference but I would still base it on the number of MLB players.

 

The thing is that putting a bunch of Nick Puntos together will never add up to a truly impact player, making your scenario of trading 5 of them unrealistic. My whole point of that metaphor was to illustrate that you cannot just judge a system based on pure output of players (and on the flip side pure quality of players). You conveniently ignored my scenario of the 5 very good players versus the 10 role players. By your logic, the system which produced the 10 role players is better even though I think you would agree that 5 very good players are better than 10 role players.

 

 

[ptatc]

The thing is that putting a bunch of Nick Puntos together will never add up to a truly impact player, making your scenario of trading 5 of them unrealistic. My whole point of that metaphor was to illustrate that you cannot just judge a system based on pure output of players (and on the flip side pure quality of players). You conveniently ignored my scenario of the 5 very good players versus the 10 role players. By your logic, the system which produced the 10 role players is better even though I think you would agree that 5 very good players are better than 10 role players.

You brought up the 1 Puljols vs. 10 Punto scenario. I gave you my answer.

 

The scenario of 5 good vs. the 10 average players is nothing more than the middle of the spectrum. That's where the preference applies and that's when you need to start looking at details. Are they pitchers vs. hitters. Pitching is still more valuable so if the scenario is 10 average pitchers vs. 5 very good hitters I'll take the 10 pitchers.

 

We can go on like this indefinitely. As I said, it's a matter of preference in general the more you produce the more effective the farm system. Because the fewer players you develop, the odds are you will have a weaker team.

[Chicago White Sox]

I can tell you one thing, Juan Silverio won't be in the top ten. What a joke.

You really think Martinez and Marinez are better prospects?

 

Silverio is still fairly young (turns 21 in April), has a nice set of physical tools, and is coming off a pretty decent season with the bat. He's obviously a huge long-shot and may not even have a true position (he was beyond terrible at 3B last year), but at least he has some upside if he puts everything together. Moreso than a lot of players in our system. Maybe he shouldn't be in the top 10, but he deserves to be ranked ahead of Martinez and Marinez at least.

[DirtySox]

You really think Martinez and Marinez are better prospects?

 

Silverio is still fairly young (turns 21 in April), has a nice set of physical tools, and is coming off a pretty decent season with the bat. He's obviously a huge long-shot and may not even have a true position (he was beyond terrible at 3B last year), but at least he has some upside if he puts everything together. Moreso than a lot of players in our system. Maybe he shouldn't be in the top 10, but he deserves to be ranked ahead of Martinez and Marinez at least.

 

I wouldn't have Martinez, Marinez, or Silverio in my top ten. I'd probably have Hector Santiago, Dylan Axelrod, and Erik Johnson replacing them, though not necessarily in that order.

 

The Baseball America list is pretty bad.

Edited January 12, 2012 by DirtySox

[Chicago White Sox]

I wouldn't have Martinez, Marinez, or Silverio in my top ten. I'd probably have Hector Santiago, Dylan Axelrod, and Erik Johnson replacing them, though not necessarily in that order.

 

The Baseball America list is pretty bad.

Yes, the BA list is pretty bad, but what can you really expect from Phil? At least he got the first 5/6 right.

 

As for the bottom of the list, for some dumb reason I was thinking Axelrod wasn't eligible, but yes he and Santiago should definitely have been included. I like Johnson as well and think he should be right around 10 - 12.

[Milkman delivers]

Ditka, of course

 

I do have a frame of reference for this as Farley was a drinking buddy at Marquette and that bit came up while at a bar (O'Donohue's) during the Bears Super Bowl season in 1985.

 

Wow, that's pretty cool, as I know a guy that hung out with him a lot at Marquette as well.

[DirtySox]

Yes, the BA list is pretty bad, but what can you really expect from Phil? At least he got the first 5/6 right.

 

As for the bottom of the list, for some dumb reason I was thinking Axelrod wasn't eligible, but yes he and Santiago should definitely have been included. I like Johnson as well and think he should be right around 10 - 12.

 

Agreed on Johnson. He has the upside of a middle of the rotation guy, but he has such little pro data it's hard to place him any higher than 10, which is right where I would probably have him. If he can figure out his control issues he could jump up the list next season.

[ptatc]

Wow, that's pretty cool, as I know a guy that hung out with him a lot at Marquette as well.

Yeah, I was starting there when he was finishing. He was a legend in the bars. He was a great guy and absolutely hilarious. Unfortunately, it also lead to his downfall. It's a shame he had to leave us so soon. He lived in an apartment near us just up the street from Jeffery Dahmer but that's a whole different story.

[Milkman delivers]

Yeah, I was starting there when he was finishing. He was a legend in the bars. He was a great guy and absolutely hilarious. Unfortunately, it also lead to his downfall. It's a shame he had to leave us so soon. He lived in an apartment near us just up the street from Jeffery Dahmer but that's a whole different story.

 

The guy I know said he would lock himself away for long periods of time, though. I'm guessing some kind of manic depression based on that. He also apparently read John Belushi's biography over and over.

[ptatc]

The guy I know said he would lock himself away for long periods of time, though. I'm guessing some kind of manic depression based on that. He also apparently read John Belushi's biography over and over.

I'm not sure about the locking himself away part, I really only saw him in the bars. He was a huge fan of Belushi and used to joke about dying that way while we were all drinking.

[Milkman delivers]

I'm not sure about the locking himself away part, I really only saw him in the bars. He was a huge fan of Belushi and used to joke about dying that way while we were all drinking.

 

I heard the same thing.

[danman31]

You really think Martinez and Marinez are better prospects?

 

Silverio is still fairly young (turns 21 in April), has a nice set of physical tools, and is coming off a pretty decent season with the bat. He's obviously a huge long-shot and may not even have a true position (he was beyond terrible at 3B last year), but at least he has some upside if he puts everything together. Moreso than a lot of players in our system. Maybe he shouldn't be in the top 10, but he deserves to be ranked ahead of Martinez and Marinez at least.

Marinez yes, but I'm also really down on Silverio to be honest. I'm not sure he has all that much upside.

 

I wouldn't have Martinez, Marinez, or Silverio in my top ten. I'd probably have Hector Santiago, Dylan Axelrod, and Erik Johnson replacing them, though not necessarily in that order.

 

The Baseball America list is pretty bad.

Agree. None of them would make it. I have Escobar fairly high. His upside is minimal, but his floor is MLB player. In this system that's something. I'd also put Santiago in there.

 

Pretty much in this system it's personal preference after the top handful. Depending on when people saw the players or what stats people like you could see a player like Silverio in a top ten and outside the top 20 in another. Same goes for a lot of prospects in this system.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Our 2015 lineup looks worse than a Triple A lineup.

[danman31]

Our 2015 lineup looks worse than a Triple A lineup.

That's because it is one.

[thxfrthmmrs]

You really think Martinez and Marinez are better prospects?

 

Silverio is still fairly young (turns 21 in April), has a nice set of physical tools, and is coming off a pretty decent season with the bat. He's obviously a huge long-shot and may not even have a true position (he was beyond terrible at 3B last year), but at least he has some upside if he puts everything together. Moreso than a lot of players in our system. Maybe he shouldn't be in the top 10, but he deserves to be ranked ahead of Martinez and Marinez at least.

 

Silverio was an intriguing prospect a few years back when he was still a SS. But he's nothing special as a 3B, he's got a strong arm, but he doesn't have great range, and his throw is not accurate. I think he would move to LF eventually. His offense is a bigger suspect, as he couldn't hit for power, his plate discipline is terrible, and he is not a good base runner. Add that up, you got a sub .700 OPS player with no speed and average defense. He will be lucky if he can make it to the majors as a utility player.

[Pale Sox]

Silverio was an intriguing prospect a few years back when he was still a SS. But he's nothing special as a 3B, he's got a strong arm, but he doesn't have great range, and his throw is not accurate. I think he would move to LF eventually. His offense is a bigger suspect, as he couldn't hit for power, his plate discipline is terrible, and he is not a good base runner. Add that up, you got a sub .700 OPS player with no speed and average defense. He will be lucky if he can make it to the majors as a utility player.

Rogers was perhaps Silverio's biggest supporter prior to the whole Wilder scandal stuff. At least from what I can remember. He's probably just happy that the guy finally had a passable season, so he can save face a little bit.

 

And the whole future lineups thing is just an exercise in futility. It's meaningless.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Rogers was perhaps Silverio's biggest supporter prior to the whole Wilder scandal stuff. At least from what I can remember. He's probably just happy that the guy finally had a passable season, so he can save face a little bit.

 

And the whole future lineups thing is just an exercise in futility. It's meaningless.

 

There were rumors floating around that he might even be a few years older, so I am not a fan of Silverio at all.

 

The future lineup projection is a meaningless exercise, but it also shows how thin our farm system's depth is in some of these positions. We have been stockpiling on pitching so far this off season, along with a few international signing of pitchers, but it's frightening that we don't have any 1B, 2B, or 3B prospects in our very weak top 20 prospect list. And our OF prospects are really long term, high risk high reward prospects.

Edited January 12, 2012 by thxfrthmmrs

[Pale Sox]

There were rumors floating around that he might even be a few years older, so I am not a fan of Silverio at all.

 

The future lineup projection is a meaningless exercise, but it also shows how thin our farm system's depth is in some of these positions. We have been stockpiling on pitching so far this off season, along with a few international signing of pitchers, but it's frightening that we don't have any 1B, 2B, or 3B prospects in our very weak top 20 prospect list. And our OF prospects are really long term, high risk high reward prospects.

We have been stockpiling pitching prospects, but I have no issue with that. That's where we were the thinnest and also where we had the most need. Also the most success in terms of development.

 

Our system is thin on positional prospects right now (as with basically everything), but there isn't a ton of need with position guys. Viciedo, De Aza, Alexei, Morel, Beckham are all young (Alexei aside, although he's the best of the bunch) and controllable for years to come. Their effectiveness is arguable in some cases, but there's still the option there. Three of the other positions (1B, DH, OF) are the easiest to fill, and the other (catcher) is one with which we actually have some semblance of depth.

 

Our starting pitching options were totally barren compared to any other team. The guys we had as our lead prospects (Petricka, Santiago, etc.) would be afterthoughts anywhere else. Most of our pitching prospects are relievers or relievers trying to become starters. They've been trying to add some options, and I think that's the best approach. It represents our greatest need. I love the Castro addition, and I buy into Molina. I like both additions. They bought low on Castro. This was a near elite guy a year ago that struggled with his mechanics, went to the DL, and finished strong. I believe even the Molina acquisition was buying low. He still has the RP stigma unfairly attached to him simply because he worked out of the bullpen initially to help him ease into becoming a pitcher. He has everything you want in a starting pitcher. Sickles was the only pundit really high on him, and that's to his credit. He's usually the guy that focuses the least on reputation, and the most on what he actually sees.

Edited January 12, 2012 by Pale Sox

[Real]

didn't read the last two pages so forgive me if it's already been mentioned but what if the problem isn't with identifying the talent during the drafting process but, you know.... converting those drafts into MLB players

 

there are ways to tell if it were the player, or the player development staff when deciding of a guy is any good or not after leaving through a trade or whatever, such as if he "finds it" on another team

 

obviously borchard, fields, poreda, BA, Broadway were horrible first round picks, we'll see eventually how Beckham pans out as well as the pitchers everybody keeps mentioning

 

my point: we suck at drafting and developing

[Pale Sox]

didn't read the last two pages so forgive me if it's already been mentioned but what if the problem isn't with identifying the talent during the drafting process but, you know.... converting those drafts into MLB players

 

there are ways to tell if it were the player, or the player development staff when deciding of a guy is any good or not after leaving through a trade or whatever, such as if he "finds it" on another team

 

obviously borchard, fields, poreda, BA, Broadway were horrible first round picks, we'll see eventually how Beckham pans out as well as the pitchers everybody keeps mentioning

 

my point: we suck at drafting and developing

I think we've suffered from a bad combination of luck and execution. We've either swung (and missed) for the fences with high-upside types that never develop, or settle for low-risk/low-upside guys that top out as organizational filler.

 

There never seems to be a happy medium. There seems to be a serious disconnect between our scouting department and player development. I like to think this is an issue being addressed, but with this organization, you never know. I used to be optimistic, but now I just assume the worst.

[Chicago White Sox]

Silverio was an intriguing prospect a few years back when he was still a SS. But he's nothing special as a 3B, he's got a strong arm, but he doesn't have great range, and his throw is not accurate. I think he would move to LF eventually. His offense is a bigger suspect, as he couldn't hit for power, his plate discipline is terrible, and he is not a good base runner. Add that up, you got a sub .700 OPS player with no speed and average defense. He will be lucky if he can make it to the majors as a utility player.

The plate discipline is a concern, but he's a 20 year old player latin player. Still too early write him off based on that. I completely disagree on the power, as he had nearly 60 XBHs last year. A huge number of those were doubles and triples, and some of them will start going over the fence as he fills out his frame.

 

The defense is what will most likely kill his prospect chances, because his offensive potential won't translate to a corner spot, so it's really 3B or bust. His odds of sticking at 3B look pretty bad at the moment.

 

No doubt he's a long-shot, but I like him than a lot of garbage in our system.

 

 

[PolishPrince34]

When is Baseball America going to get a better analyst to critique the White Sox farm system. Including Jhan Marinez, rhp, Juan Silverio, 3b, and Ozzie Martinez, ss in our Top 10 list is pathetic. Phil Rogers needs to get some new glasses because Silverio and Martinez shouldn't even be in the Top 20. Hopefully the addition of Paddy is going to really help out evaluating the Latin America area and spend some before the international cap begins.

[OZZIE_FAN_69]

Whatever happened to Mitchell? Kid fell off the face of the Earth after that injury.