Rosenthal: Tanaka to Yankees

[hi8is]

I just need to put it in my head that Tanaka is already a Yankee.

[Lillian]

Anyone care to conjecture just how the Sox front office might have pitched him?

 

What else, besides their bright future, a great city, less media scrutiny and thus less pressure, and an opt out clause in the contract?

Edited January 12, 2014 by Lillian

[beautox]

I wonder how big of a check Arte Moreno will write given his limitations. If Yanks really aren't going to go crazy Sox could actually have a chance. I always figured Dodgers would go crazy. I still think Cubs would too, especially in this case, since everyone should have a pretty good idea what other teams are bidding. It isn't like its a blind bid. I'd think if the Cubs hear the Sox are the leaders by $5M or whatever it might be, they'd blow that offer up and come in higher (unless Epstein really is tied up). Hopefully Tanaka is secretly best friends with Shingo and Shingo tells him go to the White Sox!!!

 

PS: I still don't know if it is a good idea to give the type of money being talked about but s***, as a fan, I'm not going to lie, it would make this probably the most exciting off-season in White Sox history. Whether it works or not, who knows. You got to like the fact that you don't have to use prospects / lose draft picks. Also, we seem to have a lot of cost controlled guys lined up which would allow the club to have a few guys signed to higher priced deals (and this gets a guy who at least over that long term window, should be in his prime).

I just don't think the dodgers or angels go crazy with money for Tanaka. The dodgers for two reasons, they have Kershaw's pay day coming up shortly and they have plenty of depth on their 40man in the pitching department. The Angels need to start saving for Trouts record breaking contract they've got some room at 138m committed before salary ARB and are down from their '12 payroll of 155 but I don't think they make it happen.

[oldsox]

Anyone care to conjecture just how the Sox front office might have pitched him?

 

What else, besides their bright future, a great city, less media scrutiny and thus less pressure, and an opt out clause in the contract?

Weather?

[Frank_Thomas]

Masahiro Tanaka updates from Sunday, January 12, 2014:

 

Tanaka returned to Japan on Saturday after spending about fifty hours in Los Angeles -- four days, two nights.

He got a physical and then met with at least six MLB teams.

Over thirty reporters were at the airport in Los Angeles (he avoided the media by using a separate check-in counter) and Narita (he did not respond to questions by the media).

The trip to the United States was most likely about getting the physical out of the way to address any concerns teams might have about his health.

Teams most likely did not present any specific contractual terms during their meetings with him.  Discussions likely focused on things like team environment and facilities.

He will resume him training in the Kanto region until the 17th.

 

Another update from the Japan news. Looks like this race is just starting, since it looks as if $ and years weren't discussed. The meetings were informational about how he fit in each club.

[Quin]

I had it at .00001% days ago. Im shocked by their interest.

 

I knew they were looking for money to sign someone, it may just be this guy.

 

Same. I held onto it as a pipe dream, but this seems like the Sox are gonna go as hard as they can for him.

[maggsmaggs]

@dylanohernandez The Yankees, Dodgers and Angels are finalists to sign Masahiro Tanaka, according to Sports Hochi.

 

https://twitter.com/dylanohernandez/status/...263278752899073

 

Not really a surprise if those were the final three because of the location and deep pockets.

 

Hernandez, the Dodgers beat writer for the LA Times, also said this:

 

@dylanohernandez I would take the Sports Hochi report with a grain of salt.

Edited January 12, 2014 by maggsmaggs

[gosoxtim]

https://twitter.com/dylanohernandez/status/...263278752899073

 

Not really a surprise if those were the final three because of the location and deep pockets.

 

Hernandez, the Dodgers beat writer for the LA Times, also said this:

 

 

yeah i guess the sports hochi reported that he not going to be posted also

[Mattchoo]

Well... He fits this team...

 

I just doubt it happening.

 

 

5% chance?

 

 

At least we are smart enough to get involved.

 

[Lillian]

Weather?

 

'Yea' right, beautiful Chicago weather in the spring and Post Season Fall!!!!!

I wonder if he's ever played baseball in the snow.

 

That must have been right after they told him about the ancient 'Grabowski Dynasty', and that Butkus was a famous Samurai warrior. Hey, come to think of it, the '85 Bears did have "Samurai Mike".

Edited January 12, 2014 by Lillian

[Jose Abreu]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/masa...medium=facebook

[ScottyDo]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/masa...medium=facebook

Yeaaaah...I don't think we're in that ballpark. Just guessing.

[Quin]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/masa...medium=facebook

 

Elliott's source also outlined what Tanaka will be seeking from potential suitors. "Tanaka wants to go to a World Series, wants a city where his family will feel at home since they don’t speak English. He has a desire to be on a team with potential to win and loves the pressure."

 

Chicago fulfills that.

 

I feel like it depends if the Sox can sell him on Sale/Q/JDA/Avi/Eaton/Davidson being the core of a contender.

[Jose Abreu]

Elliott's source also outlined what Tanaka will be seeking from potential suitors. "Tanaka wants to go to a World Series, wants a city where his family will feel at home since they don’t speak English. He has a desire to be on a team with potential to win and loves the pressure."

 

Chicago fulfills that.

 

I feel like it depends if the Sox can sell him on Sale/Q/JDA/Avi/Eaton/Davidson being the core of a contender.

Yes, Chicago fulfills that, but so does New York, LA, Boston, etc.

[gosoxtim]

Yeaaaah...I don't think we're in that ballpark. Just guessing.

 

Maybe we dont know for sure

[ScottyDo]

Maybe we dont know for sure

It's possible. Tanaka might be the kind of player that we finally break the bank for. But it's unprecedented for the Sox to offer anything like that, so I'm skeptical. That would easily be the biggest contract the Sox have ever given out, or probably offered.

[The Ultimate Champion]

If the choice is Tanaka at $20M per and 6-8 years I think you just fold your cards and go home. The odds of that working out are going to be pretty small because the deal is going to likely be at its greatest value in the early going (when the Sox are still building) and at its least value near the end, when the Sox should be in their contention window.

 

There is also a potentially catastrophic consequence to be seen should the Sox go all in for Tanaka, get him, and then decide to "rush" this rebuilding thing. While keeping the losing to a minimum is preferable, you should never rush through this. The Sox have been asked to rebuilt by their fanbase for much of the last 10 years, off and on. All this current s***tiness is also a veiled opportunity to make the necessary moves to be a contender for a long time into the future. Probably to compete against the Twins; we probably don't want to watch the Twins put us to shame by going through their rebuild properly and then spanking us like children as soon as we're good enough to compete for a division. That already happened & it is not fun.

 

The Sox are good at developing pitching. They are also good at pulling near-MLB ready projects out of other organizations. I know this may sound strange, but Masato Tanaka is *not* the only guy on the planet with 2 very good pitches plus a third pitch. The reality in MLB is that 3 very good pitches *can* make you an ace, or not, but there is at least potential there. I believe there are players out there the Sox can acquire who they also believe can develop 2 potentially dominant offerings plus a solid third pitch, and maybe we can get one of those guys. It's not like we haven't done it before.

 

And as far as the money goes, if the Sox do indeed have $20M per to offer right now, it's better to not offer that out than it is to remove $20M worth of payroll flexibility per season during our next contention window in the hope that we'll still be getting the value we need when we actually need it on the field.

 

Lastly, per Cot's Baseball Contracts, here is a list of the largest contracts given out in total value, listed at $120M or greater. This is probably a pretty comparable list for Tanaka given the number of years being offered as well as the annual value. Look at these contracts & decide how many of them you would actually be comfortable with - remember that a lot of these didn't work out so great - and consider that these are also MLB-proven players. Tanaka has age going for him, but just about everything else is going to be a negative, from the fact he's unproven to the fact that he throws a splitter to workload etc.

 

1. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)

2. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)

3. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21)

. . . Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23)

5. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)

6. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20)

7. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10)

8. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18)

9. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)

. . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19)

11. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19)

12. Buster Posey, $167,000,000 (2013-21)

13. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15)

14. Manny Ramirez, $160,000,000 (2001-08)

. . . Matt Kemp, $160,000,000 (2012-19)

16. Troy Tulowitzki, $157,750,000 (2011-20)

17. Adrian Gonzalez, $154,000,000 (2012-18)

18. Jacoby Ellsbury, $153,000,000 (2014-20)

19. Miguel Cabrera, $152,300,000 (2008-15)

20. Zack Greinke, $147,000,000 (2013-18)

21. Cole Hamels, $144,000,000 (2013-18)

22. Carl Crawford, $142,000,000 (2011-17)

23. Todd Helton, $141,500,000 (2003-11)

24. David Wright, $138,000,000 (2013-20)

25. Johan Santana, $137,500,000 (2008-13)

26. Alfonso Soriano, $136,000,000 (2007-14)

27. Shin-Shoo Choo, $130,000,000 (2014-20)

28. Matt Cain, $127,500,000 (2012-17)

29. Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13)

. . . Vernon Wells, $126,000,000 (2008-14)

. . . Jayson Werth, $126,000,000 (2011-17)

32. Ryan Howard, $125,000,000 (2012-16)

. . . Josh Hamilton, $125,000,000 (2013-17)

34. CC Sabathia, $122,000,000 (2012-16)

35. Mike Hampton, $121,000,000 (2001-08)

36. Jason Giambi, $120,000,000 (2002-08)

. . . Matt Holliday, $120,000,000 (2010-16)

. . . Cliff Lee, $120,000,000 (2011-15)

. . . Elvis Andrus, $120,000,000 (2015-22)

[The Ultimate Champion]

One last thing too:

 

Let's say the Yankees sign Tanaka. The Sox make the playoffs as a WildCard in 2015. The Yankees play the Sox and start Tanaka in Game 1 vs. Sale. Are we somehow destined to lose that game? If we start Quintana #2 against CC, are we destined to lose that one, too? Or maybe we get another RHSP in that period, starting him in Game 2 and Q in Game 3. Are we destined to lose that serious, or are we destined to have a s***ty rotation or else get out-pitched and beaten in the playoffs just because we don't have Tanaka?

 

Thinking with your brain and not your dick helps at times.

[gosoxtim]

One last thing too:

 

Let's say the Yankees sign Tanaka. The Sox make the playoffs as a WildCard in 2015. The Yankees play the Sox and start Tanaka in Game 1 vs. Sale. Are we somehow destined to lose that game? If we start Quintana #2 against CC, are we destined to lose that one, too? Or maybe we get another RHSP in that period, starting him in Game 2 and Q in Game 3. Are we destined to lose that serious, or are we destined to have a s***ty rotation or else get out-pitched and beaten in the playoffs just because we don't have Tanaka?

 

Thinking with your brain and not your dick helps at times.

 

That why baseball my favorite sport you may never know what might happen look at the 2005 sox our rotaion wasnt great but we won it anyway

[Lillian]

If the Sox end up drafting Jeff Hoffman, how would that figure into this equation?

How long would it likely take for Hoffman to be able to contribute?

Could they end up with a staff of Sale, Tanaka, Quintana, Hoffman and Johnson in a couple of years?

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

If the Sox end up drafting Jeff Hoffman, how would that figure into this equation?

How long would it likely take for Hoffman to be able to contribute?

Could they end up with a staff of Sale, Tanaka, Quintana, Hoffman and Johnson in a couple of years?

It'd be a mistake to think about either scenario here. If you think he's going to be worth $125 million to this team, you offer him that and if you think that guy is worthy of the #3 pick you draft him.

 

FIgure there's a finite chance that either guy gets hurt, there's a chance guys don't develop, there's a chance a really good looking trade comes along, there's a chance the draftee needs an extra year or two in the minors you don't expect, who knows.

[Paulstar]

I could see the White Sox feeling that an added bonus of signing Tanaka would make it more flexible to trade Quintana for a young impact bat in the near future.

[Balta1701]

I could see the White Sox feeling that an added bonus of signing Tanaka would make it more flexible to trade Quintana for a young impact bat in the near future.

That would certainly be one sensible thing to do if we signed the guy...but so far it definitely seems like the org really likes Quintana. They gave him the shot above other people when he had been at AA for a month, they pushed him hard and he keeps responding well, and they traded Santiago instead of him already

[Eminor3rd]

There's nothing wrong with a rebuilding team acquiring assets that help them win now, but they need to (a) also help them win in 3-5 years and (b) provide surplus value financially. If Tanaka's price is $20m over 6-8 years like TUC suggested, that doesn't satisfy part b, because that is, at best, market rate for those services. When rebuilding, there are a LOT of moving parts -- players that may or may not develop at variable rates -- and it behooves a team to maintain as much flexibility with its money as possible so that it can spend the money to shore up areas that need shored up after it sees what it has with its core.

 

JDA and Tanaka both have the upside to be worth $20m/year in market value. The JDA signing at 6/$68m (~$11m/yr) was really smart for Hahn because he purchased an asset with potential surplus value. Tanaka at 7/$140 ($20m) would not be smart for Hahn because he has then purchased a very expensive asset with no surplus value -- he has tied his hands over the next 7 years by committing a substantial portion of his resources, at top dollar rate, to something he doesn't know he'll need when it matters.

[The Ultimate Champion]

That why baseball my favorite sport you may never know what might happen look at the 2005 sox our rotaion wasnt great but we won it anyway

Jose Contreras, like Tanaka now, was once the hottest thing out there. A great comp actually given Jose's forkball and competitiveness, and his desire to pitch deep into games/the workhorse mentality.

 

Things went very bad in NY.

 

KW signed Esteban Loaiza as a comeback candidate. Loaiza picked up a cutter with Coop and apart from a late fade nearly won the Cy Young. The following season Loaiza reverted back to Esteban Loaiza, and the Sox traded him to the Yankees in his walk year for 2 years of Jose Contreras with the Yankees picking up enough of Contreras' salary to essentially make him a back-end starter. Obviously, Contreras had A #1 ace level stuff, and luckily for us he started to find it during the 2005 season and for a span of about a year was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.

 

The rest of that rotation was the following: 2 draft picks in Buehrle and McCarthy, a rebuild-your-value 5th starter FA signing in El Duque, a halfway decent reliever who was traded for a SP which became Garland, and 3 players (Reed, Olivo, and Morse) who were not starting pitchers but became Freddy Garcia. Freddy, also, had tip-top ability but just wasn't labeled as a sure-fire ace. A more competitive Gavin Floyd basically, tons of ability but a better competitor.

 

Nowhere on that team was there a zillion dollar FA. And looking around baseball, usually the greatest players are those making the smallest amounts of money and preforming in their prime years through the arbitration system. And there's a pretty consistent rule of thumb/precedent set through free agency (essentially what this is) that says when you blow your wad chasing the sexiest object available you often lose sight of the real goals and abandon the rationale that put you in that position to make your offer in the first place. And make no mistake, the only reason the Sox would even bother *talking* to Tanaka is because they drafted and developed Sale (who the extended), plus Jones, plus Reed (now Davidson), plus Santiago (now Eaton), plus Viciedo, plus they acquired cheaply players from other organizations through trade or MiLB FA or claimes like Quintana and DeAza and Gillaspie and so on, some of whom, if not in any way part of the future, can still be traded off for other assets.