This type of player may not be around for a while.

What makes you say that? You mean a player like Tanaka? In recent history there are 2 major Japanese posted FA signings in the last what, 3 offseasons? And 3 in the last 8 if you throw in Matsuzaka?

 

I feel like Japan is regularly starting to turn out this caliber of talent.

Due to the curvature of the earth and the higher latitude, we're closer to Japan than we look

 

EDIT: If you check it out on Google Earth, it's much more obvious. Stupid Mercator and his s****y projections!

Thats f***ing crazy. I need a globe.

 

 

Update from the Sox-still confident.

Compared to the MLB draft, that's a good track record.

 

Very true, but nobody is committing $100+ million dollars to draft picks.

I agree with the people concerned about the price....like I was saying earlier some of the figures have him getting up into Top 5 pitcher money. Basically in the company of King Felix and Verlander.

The Japanese league is considered the 2nd strongest baseball league in the world and has a decent track record of pitchers having successful transitions. We committed 68 million to a Cuban who has never seen a MLB pitch and that deal is widely applauded, I don't see the big difference in risk here.

Specify "decent track record of pitchers having successful transitions". I see a group who, with only one exception I am aware of, are all pretty awful by year 2 or 3. Show me a list of Japanese pro pitchers coming over and being successful for more than about 1.5 seasons. Maybe I am missing some, beyond the one I am aware of.

 

 

 

Update from the Sox-still confident.

It's 100% talent level and 0% league IMO. The only thing competition is used for I would imagine is to judge how the player reacts under less-than-ideal circumstances i.e. when under pressure by a count, situation, etc. Teams look for pure talent but also other things like poise, competitive fire, things that would suggest that a player would or would not be able to deal with the struggles that are part of the MLB game and part of the development of any MLB player.

 

So a good portion of the price teams will pay on Tanaka is related to the talent he possesses and his mental make-up. Another good portion of that total has to deal with the fact that he is seen as MLB-ready because everything is very advanced. The remaining total of what his price will be is all about player age, the lack of draft pick cost, the fact that the signing does not come out of any draft or INTL signing budget, and the posting system process itself ($20M max).

 

Compounding things further is the fact that this process isn't slotted at all nor are rights acquired by any specific team meaning that teams are capable of bidding against each other without any sort of cap or ceiling.

 

If you add up what the Cubs have given to Soler & Conception alone in one offseason, and you look for other examples around the league - the guys who were nowhere near MLB-ready - you see right away that there is a huge % based value attached to the no draft pick cost, no specific budget cost, etc. I imagine one day soon the FanGraphs people or someone like that will attempt to break down the costs and put a % based value on this stuff and come up with a somewhat reasonable method of predicting an open market signing out of Japan or Cuba based on a number of factors. And whatever that would be, when you break down what you're actually paying for on-field value, it's only a portion of the cost and maybe an underwhelming portion of what the cost should be.

Considering that bet is dependent on Tanaka, should just bet the 20 to 1 that the Sox land Tanaka. A lot safer odds and only one thing needs to go right. I put 5 down.

Considering that bet is dependent on Tanaka, should just bet the 20 to 1 that the Sox land Tanaka. A lot safer odds and only one thing needs to go right. I put 5 down.

Take the parlay where Sox get Tanaka and win the pennant both.

Specify "decent track record of pitchers having successful transitions". I see a group who, with only one exception I am aware of, are all pretty awful by year 2 or 3. Show me a list of Japanese pro pitchers coming over and being successful for more than about 1.5 seasons. Maybe I am missing some, beyond the one I am aware of.

 

I say decent, because as the case with most high profile FA's, it's about 50/50 on worth it. Nomo, Darvish, Uehara, Iwakuma were or are profiling to be tremendous successes. Irabu, the later years of Dice-K, Igawa and others are disappointments. It's a mixed bag, but there is a decent track record to be found.

MLB Network keeps talking about the smaller ball in Japan. I did not know this until the Tanaka deal came up. I have heard in the past that they have larger seams than MLB. Wonder if size counts.

Darvish

Iwakuma

Kuroda

Hideo Nomo

 

Tomo Ohka had a couple good years but sucked more often than not.

 

Then a glut of relievers

Tazawa

Uehara

Hasegawa

Kaz Sasaki

Otsuka

Saito

 

The obvious failures are Dice-K, Igawa, Irabu.

 

Forgot Kuroda, good call.

 

Very true, but nobody is committing $100+ million dollars to draft picks.

Many of the variables that make draft picks questions marks are also negated in these situations such as maturity, workload and professional schedule.

Darvish

Iwakuma

Kuroda

Hideo Nomo

 

Tomo Ohka had a couple good years but sucked more often than not.

 

Then a glut of relievers

Tazawa

Uehara

Hasegawa

Kaz Sasaki

Otsuka

Saito

 

The obvious failures are Dice-K, Igawa, Irabu.

 

Dice-K could have been good if his body didnt fall apart.

 

If he is supposedly "a notch down from Dervish" then I would be perfectly ok if his stats looked like Iwakuma or Kuroda

Dice-K could have been good if his body didnt fall apart.

Yeah, he had one really nice year. 18-3 2.90 ERA

If he is supposedly "a notch down from Dervish" then I would be perfectly ok if his stats looked like Iwakuma or Kuroda

Except Darvish makes around 10 mil a year and this guy could make double.

Yeah, he had one really nice year. 18-3 2.90 ERA

His WAR his first two years was pretty good, and then BOOM, body failed.

wang chu ‏@nflnbainsider 20m

sources saying #Yankees sign #tanaka 6 year 130 mil

Retweeted by AP III

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Except Darvish makes around 10 mil a year and this guy could make double.

 

Darvish would have gotten a much larger contract with the new posting rules though. I think the Rangers paid over $50 million for the posting fee.

wang chu ‏@nflnbainsider 15s

#Tanaka decision coming around 9am Tokyo time. 3 1/2 hours from now he's going to #yankees for 6 years 130 million as its been reported

Logan Durant ‏@kdurantokc 14m

@nflnbainsider I like how he doesn't respond when you ask what source

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wang chu ‏@nflnbainsider 12m

@kdurantokc goldenchoo japan newspapper

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wang chu ‏@nflnbainsider 20m

sources saying #Yankees sign #tanaka 6 year 130 mil

Retweeted by AP III

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Well if wang chu says it, it has to be true.

wang chu ‏@nflnbainsider 20m

sources saying #Yankees sign #tanaka 6 year 130 mil

Retweeted by AP III

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fake dude that not real her

Well if wang chu says it, it has to be true.

I know, I mean... it even Will Rhymes.