The Aiken situation is another example of why Rodon would be nuts not to sign in the next 11 days.

The Astros took a guy that many felt was the best arm with the highest ceiling in the draft, found out that he may have some injury concerns after initially agreeing to a $6.5 million deal, and are still saying to him "look, we're still willing to give you $5 mill, which we believe is more than fair."

 

I don't see anything questionable with what the Astros have done.

 

Exactly, I'm not sure of their other issues, but any other sport and this would have been a known issue prior to the draft. Him continuing to get 5 million is a win for the players union I guess.

I can't figure out if Aiken injury is a GOOD thing for us, or a BAD thing.

 

One the one hand, it may give us a bullet to use against Boras/Rodon as far as money goes if Aiken signs for only $5M.

 

But on the other hand, if the Astros don't sign him, it would not only bump our pick next year down 1 more spot, but if WE then fail to sign Rodon, we get the 5th pick as compensation instead of the 4th pick next year.

The Astros took a guy that many felt was the best arm with the highest ceiling in the draft, found out that he may have some injury concerns after initially agreeing to a $6.5 million deal, and are still saying to him "look, we're still willing to give you $5 mill, which we believe is more than fair."

 

I don't see anything questionable with what the Astros have done.

 

Aiken is going to get paid if he holds out. Remember, if the Astros don't offer 90% of slot, they lose the compensation for Aiken not signing. His slot value is $7,922,100. Meaning if the Astros don't offer about $7.2 million, they won't get a replacement pick for Aiken if he doesn't sign.

The Astros took a guy that many felt was the best arm with the highest ceiling in the draft, found out that he may have some injury concerns after initially agreeing to a $6.5 million deal, and are still saying to him "look, we're still willing to give you $5 mill, which we believe is more than fair."

 

I don't see anything questionable with what the Astros have done.

But if the Astros offer $5MM and he doesn't take it, then the Astros do not get a replacement first round pick in 2015, correct?

 

Edit: Sorry, I did not see Southsider's previous post.

Edited July 8, 201411 yr by oldsox

The Aiken situation is another example of why Rodon would be nuts not to sign in the next 11 days.

 

I think that would make 3 or 4 first rounders involved with ligament problems.

Interesting the new Astros regime involved in two "controversies" in the first round already....Appel selected after not signing with the Pirates, and now the Aiken situation.

Edited July 8, 201411 yr by caulfield12

I think that would make 3 or 4 first rounders involved with ligament problems.

 

Aiken, Hoffman and Fedde (UNLV)....rumors about Finnegan (TCU)

Aiken is going to get paid if he holds out. Remember, if the Astros don't offer 90% of slot, they lose the compensation for Aiken not signing. His slot value is $7,922,100. Meaning if the Astros don't offer about $7.2 million, they won't get a replacement pick for Aiken if he doesn't sign.

They get a replacement pick if he failed the physical and they offered 40% slot.

They get a replacement pick if he failed the physical and they offered 40% slot.

 

 

So around $3.2 million.

 

That makes sense. $5.5 million is pretty much the midpoint between $7.9 and $3.2...almost exactly.

 

Seems that's what Luhnow and company believe is a fair settlement.

Edited July 8, 201411 yr by caulfield12

So around $3.2 million.

 

That makes sense. $5.5 million is pretty much the midpoint between $7.9 and $3.2...almost exactly.

 

Seems that's what Luhnow and company believe is a fair settlement.

The Astros have him by the balls. He is 17 or 18. $5 million sets him up pretty well if baseball doesn't work out. He is hurt. If he needs surgery, the draft next year is probably out. As long as the injury is legit, I think they are being more than fair.

The Astros have him by the balls. He is 17 or 18. $5 million sets him up pretty well if baseball doesn't work out. He is hurt. If he needs surgery, the draft next year is probably out. As long as the injury is legit, I think they are being more than fair.

 

 

It would be interesting if we could get the test results to PTAC and see if he agrees conclusively that the Astros are warranted in red flagging him...

 

Can't Aiken's family get a second or third opinion now from Dr. Andrews or the Jobe Clinic and put that information out there publicly?

 

Who is the arbiter of whether there's a legit injury or not...to say they can lower the slot offer from 90% to 40%???

Boras is not going to let his client be another Matt Harrington, but I realize there is precedent with Appel, but that only makes our case stronger with how terrible Appel has been this year. One week until Rodon signs, can't wait.

The Astros have him by the balls. He is 17 or 18. $5 million sets him up pretty well if baseball doesn't work out. He is hurt. If he needs surgery, the draft next year is probably out. As long as the injury is legit, I think they are being more than fair.

 

You're right, Aiken has no leverage at all. He either signs for $5 mill, or he goes JuCo, in which case he's not getting drafted that highly again for at least 2 years, or he goes D1 and then he can't get drafted for 3 years. He HAS to sign. It's a goodwill offering by the Astros that they're giving that much.

 

Boras is not going to let his client be another Matt Harrington, but I realize there is precedent with Appel, but that only makes our case stronger with how terrible Appel has been this year. One week until Rodon signs, can't wait.

 

Appel did have a little less leverage than Rodon. So long as Boras has not had direct negotiations with the Sox, he can go back, but you can point to what Appel got as a senior draft pick #1 overall.

 

It's still 99.9999%.

You're right, Aiken has no leverage at all. He either signs for $5 mill, or he goes JuCo, in which case he's not getting drafted that highly again for at least 2 years, or he goes D1 and then he can't get drafted for 3 years. He HAS to sign. It's a goodwill offering by the Astros that they're giving that much.

 

 

 

Appel did have a little less leverage than Rodon. So long as Boras has not had direct negotiations with the Sox, he can go back, but you can point to what Appel got as a senior draft pick #1 overall.

 

It's still 99.9999%.

 

 

The most that the Pirates could offer Appel was like $3.2 million. He went back to school and got over $6 million I believe. Rodon will get $6 million now and most likely won't next year.

As Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle explained in late June, Aiken would become a free agent if he failed his physical and the Astros did not make an offer of at least 40 percent of his slot value (roughly $3.17MM). Clearly, based on Heyman’s report, Houston is still comfortable enough with Aiken’s elbow that this scenario is unlikely.

 

However, the Astros would also lose the value of Aiken’s slot from their bonus pool should he elect not to sign, which would be problematic. The Astros were set to save about $1.4MM on Aiken’s original $6.5MM bonus, and a great deal of those savings were reserved for the $1.5MM bonus they’ve agreed to with fifth-rounder Jacob Nix – a bonus that is $1.13MM over slot. It is in Houston’s best interest to get some form of deal worked out, as losing Aiken’s slot would drop Houston’s overall pool to roughly $5.44MM, leaving them unable to officially sign Nix at that figure without incurring penalties in future drafts (the maximum penalty, which is enforced if a team exceeds its draft pool by more than 15 percent, is the forfeiture of a team’s next two first-round picks and a 100 percent luxury tax on the overage).

 

 

Also, reports from the Chronicle's Drellich that Flores (Aiken's personal trainer) says Brady is "absolutely healthy." Interesting to see how this one ends up.

 

Maybe Aiken's camp is going to ask for some kind of addendum where if he doesn't go down to TJ surgery within 6-10 years they will have to pay back the $1.5 million they're subtracting for the physical results.

Interesting the new Astros regime involved in two "controversies" in the first round already....Appel selected after not signing with the Pirates, and now the Aiken situation.

How is drafting Appel after he didn't sign a controversy for the Astros?

As Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle explained in late June, Aiken would become a free agent if he failed his physical and the Astros did not make an offer of at least 40 percent of his slot value (roughly $3.17MM). Clearly, based on Heyman’s report, Houston is still comfortable enough with Aiken’s elbow that this scenario is unlikely.

 

However, the Astros would also lose the value of Aiken’s slot from their bonus pool should he elect not to sign, which would be problematic. The Astros were set to save about $1.4MM on Aiken’s original $6.5MM bonus, and a great deal of those savings were reserved for the $1.5MM bonus they’ve agreed to with fifth-rounder Jacob Nix – a bonus that is $1.13MM over slot. It is in Houston’s best interest to get some form of deal worked out, as losing Aiken’s slot would drop Houston’s overall pool to roughly $5.44MM, leaving them unable to officially sign Nix at that figure without incurring penalties in future drafts (the maximum penalty, which is enforced if a team exceeds its draft pool by more than 15 percent, is the forfeiture of a team’s next two first-round picks and a 100 percent luxury tax on the overage).

 

 

Also, reports from the Chronicle's Drellich that Flores (Aiken's personal trainer) says Brady is "absolutely healthy." Interesting to see how this one ends up.

 

Maybe Aiken's camp is going to ask for some kind of addendum where if he doesn't go down to TJ surgery within 6-10 years they will have to pay back the $1.5 million they're subtracting for the physical results.

6-10 years; seriously; Probably 30% of pitchers are going to have some form of surgery during a 6-10 year window. If not, higher. How about 1 year.

6-10 years; seriously; Probably 30% of pitchers are going to have some form of surgery during a 6-10 year window. If not, higher. How about 1 year.

 

Yeah, I was going to say 1 year as well. 6-10 years and that TJS could have absolutely nothing to do with his elbow at the current stage. No one though Bronson Arroyo was unhealthy 6-10 years ago. He was the healthiest pitcher in baseball until last week. First ever DL trip, and it's TJS.

Rodon is really gonna make us wait until the last minute isn't he?

Rodon is really gonna make us wait until the last minute isn't he?

If this was a betting option in Vegas - I would have put millions on it.

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 3m

 

To clarify, yes. Rodon will sign w/@WhiteSox before the deadline. @PSLToFlushing: @MLBDraft safe to say by 7/18?

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 3m

 

To clarify, yes. Rodon will sign w/@WhiteSox before the deadline. @PSLToFlushing: @MLBDraft safe to say by 7/18?

 

Jim Callis says it's 100%. Not even I'm that ballsy.

Somebody on Twitter (so you know it's true), is saying Rodon could be in Chicago as early as today to sign his contract.

More smoke...

 

https://twitter.com/jgravleyWRAL

 

I have learned @CarlosRodon16 is flying to Chicago today to sign #MLB contract. Physical tomorrow & expected to join Winston-Salem.