Trade Winds Forum?

[The Ultimate Champion]

I sure wish he was at his 2008 velocity.

If he could pull off a Mike Mussina then that's just perfectly fine. There's no way around it: Danks has been getting the job done lately. With the lesser stuff it takes more time for people to become believers, but he IS a veteran lefthander with good enough offspeed stuff and control otherwise to where you have to at least allow for the possibility. He definitely is in the right situation re: coaching and health/strength/injury prevention.

[Balta1701]

If he could pull off a Mike Mussina then that's just perfectly fine. There's no way around it: Danks has been getting the job done lately. With the lesser stuff it takes more time for people to become believers, but he IS a veteran lefthander with good enough offspeed stuff and control otherwise to where you have to at least allow for the possibility. He definitely is in the right situation re: coaching and health/strength/injury prevention.

If he keeps being a solid looking pitcher (1.51 ERA in his last 5 starts) then when the deadline rolls around, he'll be sitting there with an ERA in the mid-3's (he's at 3.97 on the full season) and the Sox will be in a position to ask for a whole lot for him, basically that'd be him pitching like a borderline #2 starter again, signed to a multi year, affordable deal. Of course, other teams should be hesitant to give up the kind of value for him that it would take to get a #2 starter given his recent injury history, making dealing him exceptionally unlikely unless the White Sox cut the price in order to move salary to find more Cubans.

[witesoxfan]

If he keeps being a solid looking pitcher (1.51 ERA in his last 5 starts) then when the deadline rolls around, he'll be sitting there with an ERA in the mid-3's (he's at 3.97 on the full season) and the Sox will be in a position to ask for a whole lot for him, basically that'd be him pitching like a borderline #2 starter again, signed to a multi year, affordable deal. Of course, other teams should be hesitant to give up the kind of value for him that it would take to get a #2 starter given his recent injury history, making dealing him exceptionally unlikely unless the White Sox cut the price in order to move salary to find more Cubans.

I just want to point this post out again.

 

 

Last 5 starts - 35.1 IP, 24 H, 9 BB, 21 K, 2 HR, 1.51 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .188/.262/.297/.559, .210 BABIP

 

There is a lot of noise in those numbers, but there's also a lot of luck. However, worth mentioning far more - and an alarming number - are the LD%/GB%/FB% (respectively listed below) numbers in those starts

 

NYY - 8.3%/50.0%/41.7%

SD - 18.2%/54.5%/27.3%

LAD - 12.5%/50.0%/37.5%

DET - 23.8%/19.0%/57.1%

SF - 23.8%/23.8%/52.4%

 

He has been giving up a ton of line drives and fly balls. That doesn't need an eye test to tell you that those will turn into a blow up sooner rather than later. The first 3, yes, it's completely understandable why he pitched so well, especially against New York, but Detroit and San Francisco hit him around pretty good and he needs to start throwing more ground balls.

[harfman77]

I just want to point this post out again.

 

 

Last 5 starts - 35.1 IP, 24 H, 9 BB, 21 K, 2 HR, 1.51 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .188/.262/.297/.559, .210 BABIP

 

There is a lot of noise in those numbers, but there's also a lot of luck. However, worth mentioning far more - and an alarming number - are the LD%/GB%/FB% (respectively listed below) numbers in those starts

 

NYY - 8.3%/50.0%/41.7%

SD - 18.2%/54.5%/27.3%

LAD - 12.5%/50.0%/37.5%

DET - 23.8%/19.0%/57.1%

SF - 23.8%/23.8%/52.4%

 

He has been giving up a ton of line drives and fly balls. That doesn't need an eye test to tell you that those will turn into a blow up sooner rather than later. The first 3, yes, it's completely understandable why he pitched so well, especially against New York, but Detroit and San Francisco hit him around pretty good and he needs to start throwing more ground balls.

 

 

So does the FB% give us any indication how the ball was hit? Are these pop-ups or deep flys? Is it possible that hitters have tried to make and adjustment to him throwing a lot of GB's and are making an attempt to get under the ball only to weakly pop-out? Just curious as I really don't know what the entire context is behind those numbers, they don't seem to paint the whole picture.

[Balta1701]

I just want to point this post out again.

 

 

Last 5 starts - 35.1 IP, 24 H, 9 BB, 21 K, 2 HR, 1.51 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .188/.262/.297/.559, .210 BABIP

 

There is a lot of noise in those numbers, but there's also a lot of luck. However, worth mentioning far more - and an alarming number - are the LD%/GB%/FB% (respectively listed below) numbers in those starts

 

NYY - 8.3%/50.0%/41.7%

SD - 18.2%/54.5%/27.3%

LAD - 12.5%/50.0%/37.5%

DET - 23.8%/19.0%/57.1%

SF - 23.8%/23.8%/52.4%

 

He has been giving up a ton of line drives and fly balls. That doesn't need an eye test to tell you that those will turn into a blow up sooner rather than later. The first 3, yes, it's completely understandable why he pitched so well, especially against New York, but Detroit and San Francisco hit him around pretty good and he needs to start throwing more ground balls.

On the other hand though, if you go through his full season numbers, thanks to the "lots of luck" the last 5 games, his total season numbers are starting to look an awful lot like "pre-injury John Danks". Line drive percentage overall is better than it was in 2008 - not Danks's best year in that but tolerable. Home run rate has returned to normal after skyrocketing last year. Strikeout rate is a tick worse than his normal seasons but a big upgrade from the last 2 years. His BABIP on the season is ~0.015 lower than it has been on average through his career.

 

He could benefit from getting the ball on the ground a little more, I'll agree, but I disagree with your statement that "those will turn into a blowup sooner than later" on the grounds that we've already seen them turn into blowups this season and although he may have gotten a little lucky during that 5 game stretch, his numbers on the season suggests that the luck you're referring to is balanced fairly well by a few poor luck games over the previous month.

[2nd_city_saint787]

It has lead to "blow ups" twice this season. I have been Danks biggest fan here but I'm sure those games will pop up now and then, but I think more oten then not he'll be what we saw his last 5 starts.

 

His velo, I believe is about the same as it was last year, I just think he's "learned how to pitch", and that is making the difference.

[ptatc]

It has lead to "blow ups" twice this season. I have been Danks biggest fan here but I'm sure those games will pop up now and then, but I think more oten then not he'll be what we saw his last 5 starts.

 

His velo, I believe is about the same as it was last year, I just think he's "learned how to pitch", and that is making the difference.

You mean every now and then he'll have a bad game? I'll live with that from any pitcher.

[2nd_city_saint787]

You mean every now and then he'll have a bad game? I'll live with that from any pitcher.

 

Indeed. As I always like to point out, Danks had 2 starts where he gave up a combined 15 runs....His other 11 have all been quality starts. People keep bringing up his last 5 starts, but really we should be talking about his season as a whole sans those 2 starts.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

On the other hand though, if you go through his full season numbers, thanks to the "lots of luck" the last 5 games, his total season numbers are starting to look an awful lot like "pre-injury John Danks". Line drive percentage overall is better than it was in 2008 - not Danks's best year in that but tolerable. Home run rate has returned to normal after skyrocketing last year. Strikeout rate is a tick worse than his normal seasons but a big upgrade from the last 2 years. His BABIP on the season is ~0.015 lower than it has been on average through his career.

 

He could benefit from getting the ball on the ground a little more, I'll agree, but I disagree with your statement that "those will turn into a blowup sooner than later" on the grounds that we've already seen them turn into blowups this season and although he may have gotten a little lucky during that 5 game stretch, his numbers on the season suggests that the luck you're referring to is balanced fairly well by a few poor luck games over the previous month.

 

The problem with making these assumptions is that Danks's stuff has gotten worse in the last 6 years, considerably so, and he really needs to have good command to continue pitching well.

 

The blowups (or at least inconsistency) will happen if 70-75% of the balls he allows in play remain in the air. It's just not feasible to keep limiting people like he has. Over his last 3 games, his HR/FB is at 3.4%, which is well below his career average. For his career, that number is 10.6%. He's not producing many infield popups. It's just a razor thin line he's walking right now and eventually he's either going to have to start producing more ground balls, more swings and misses, or he's going to start allowing more runs.

 

FYI, the last 3 games, here are his balls in play

 

17 ground balls

29 fly balls (3 infield fly balls)

12 line drives

13 strike outs

 

 

[The Ultimate Champion]

It has lead to "blow ups" twice this season. I have been Danks biggest fan here but I'm sure those games will pop up now and then, but I think more oten then not he'll be what we saw his last 5 starts.

 

His velo, I believe is about the same as it was last year, I just think he's "learned how to pitch", and that is making the difference.

They said on the radio that his CH speed is lower now than before, putting more of a velocity gap between the FB and CH. The FB looks to be up a tick, not old Danks by any means, but a tick. The ball looks just a lot crisper than last year too, the breaking ball is better and if the gap has widened a bit then the velocity separation really helps. Basically Danks this year just looks more like a lefty whose offspeed arsenal was built around his fastball whereas before it looked like he was a fastball pitcher with a s***ty fastball and an offspeed arsenal that didn't match up properly. Fangraphs backs this up: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?pla...=P&pitch=CH but it shows his FB velocity as being down? I'm not sure about that at all, it looks to me like he has a bit more on the 4-seamer but if the readings are lower then I'm guessing he's throwing more cutters/focusing on movement and the readings aren't considering that stuff, i.e. they're calling cutters and s*** 4 seamers or something. He definitely looks to have more there on the FB at least to me. But WTF do I know, mostly I listen on the radio and haven't watched all his starts.

[The Ultimate Champion]

The problem with making these assumptions is that Danks's stuff has gotten worse in the last 6 years, considerably so, and he really needs to have good command to continue pitching well.

 

The blowups (or at least inconsistency) will happen if 70-75% of the balls he allows in play remain in the air. It's just not feasible to keep limiting people like he has. Over his last 3 games, his HR/FB is at 3.4%, which is well below his career average. For his career, that number is 10.6%. He's not producing many infield popups. It's just a razor thin line he's walking right now and eventually he's either going to have to start producing more ground balls, more swings and misses, or he's going to start allowing more runs.

 

FYI, the last 3 games, here are his balls in play

 

17 ground balls

29 fly balls (3 infield fly balls)

12 line drives

13 strike outs

I think oftentimes too much is made of flyballs. Flyballs are just perfectly fine as long as they result in outs. Hard hit flyballs are different but flyballs themselves are often just a product of using more of the strikezone, i.e. the upper parts. You don't need a blazing FB to effectively pitch up in the zone. As long as the hitters are off balance I really don't care where they hit the ball, in the air or on the ground.

[witesoxfan]

I think oftentimes too much is made of flyballs. Flyballs are just perfectly fine as long as they result in outs. Hard hit flyballs are different but flyballs themselves are often just a product of using more of the strikezone, i.e. the upper parts. You don't need a blazing FB to effectively pitch up in the zone. As long as the hitters are off balance I really don't care where they hit the ball, in the air or on the ground.

 

The problem is when your fastball averages 87 MPH. There are hitters good enough that you can throw that pitch at their eyes and they'll hit it out of the park.

 

I also don't mind the idea when pitching in a bigger park - use the playing environment to your advantage as best you can - but USCF is a bandbox in the summer and guys that get jammed can end up putting balls out of the park.

 

Flyballs are not the worst thing, but I'd prefer those balls stay on the ground.

[Eminor3rd]

I think oftentimes too much is made of flyballs. Flyballs are just perfectly fine as long as they result in outs. Hard hit flyballs are different but flyballs themselves are often just a product of using more of the strikezone, i.e. the upper parts. You don't need a blazing FB to effectively pitch up in the zone. As long as the hitters are off balance I really don't care where they hit the ball, in the air or on the ground.

 

Well, yeah.

[witesoxfan]

Well, yeah.

 

lol

[The Ultimate Champion]

The problem is when your fastball averages 87 MPH. There are hitters good enough that you can throw that pitch at their eyes and they'll hit it out of the park.

 

I also don't mind the idea when pitching in a bigger park - use the playing environment to your advantage as best you can - but USCF is a bandbox in the summer and guys that get jammed can end up putting balls out of the park.

 

Flyballs are not the worst thing, but I'd prefer those balls stay on the ground.

Danks will certainly have to take the conditions into consideration just like everyone else does, from the coaching staff to the catcher, the relievers, etc.

 

Danks has said he has been spending a whole lot more time going over hitters and scouting reports this year than in the past and has been overall paying much more attention to the pitching aspect of the game. If the scouting report on someone says he'll pop such and such a pitch up, give it to him, just be careful to hit your spot and don't take chances with the wind blowing out, etc.

 

Also any hitter in the Majors including Leury Garcia can nail a 87mph FB over the fence. Also any hitter in the Majors including Leury Garcia can nail a 93mph FB over the fence. Danks needs to keep hitters off balance, keep them guessing, and if he does that I don't see why he can't continue being successful. But he can't really have his fastball be a "go-to" pitch really anymore as far as relying on it to get him out of a bad count, he'll have to have more weapons on a per start basis. But I do believe that in some situations he'll be able to reach back and hit 91-92 when he needs it, he was doing that in Spring, and he just seems a lot stronger now than last year. So he can still surprise the hitter with some velocity I think, but he can't be like "Here, hit this." anymore.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Well, yeah.

Meaning don't get too wrapped up in their predictive values, because they are still ideal results.

[Eminor3rd]

Meaning don't get too wrapped up in their predictive values, because they are still ideal results.

 

With all the respect due to an ultimate champion, I could not possibly disagree with a statement more. What you just uttered is antithesis to the Enlightenment values that propelled our race into the Industrial Revolution that gave rise to global economy, food surpluses, and advances in medical technology that has increased the quality and length of life of billions of the world's denizens.

 

I shall pray to the pantheon of Abrahamic god figures that, for as long as you hold the belief you just described, you NEVER take up gambling.

Edited June 20, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[witesoxfan]

With all the respect due to an ultimate champion, I could not possibly disagree with a statement more. What you just uttered is antithesis to the Enlightenment values that propelled our race into the Industrial Revolution that gave rise to global economy, food surpluses, and advances in medical technology that has increased the quality and length of life of billions of the world's denizens.

 

I shall pray to the pantheon of Abrahamic god figures that, for as long as you hold the belief you just described, you NEVER take up gambling.

 

Epic post is epic.

 

Also, though I am not the first to come to this conclusion, here are the pitching preferences as noted by yours truly.

 

1) A strikeout is the best guarantee for an out.

2) A walk is never an out.

3) If the batter hits it, you prefer it to be on the ground because it's almost never a home run and the batter will usually not advance beyond 1B.

4) A flyball is preferable to a line drive, but those can be dangerous.

5) You do not ever want to give up line drives.

 

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...t&p=2935694

[TaylorStSox]

Epic post is epic.

 

Also, though I am not the first to come to this conclusion, here are the pitching preferences as noted by yours truly.

 

1) A strikeout is the best guarantee for an out.

2) A walk is never an out.

3) If the batter hits it, you prefer it to be on the ground because it's almost never a home run and the batter will usually not advance beyond 1B.

4) A flyball is preferable to a line drive, but those can be dangerous.

5) You do not ever want to give up line drives.

 

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...t&p=2935694

Epic post is epic? Who still talks like that?

[witesoxfan]

Epic post is epic? Who still talks like that?

 

I do. This is America.

[The Ultimate Champion]

With all the respect due to an ultimate champion, I could not possibly disagree with a statement more. What you just uttered is antithesis to the Enlightenment values that propelled our race into the Industrial Revolution that gave rise to global economy, food surpluses, and advances in medical technology that has increased the quality and length of life of billions of the world's denizens.

 

I shall pray to the pantheon of Abrahamic god figures that, for as long as you hold the belief you just described, you NEVER take up gambling.

Well I could argue at length about the artificial nature of food resources and the like, and how fragile the economy really is and how devastating some of these things can be on the majority of the world's citizens who were not fortunate enough to have been born into a first world country propped up by third world labor under deplorable living and working conditions and so on... but I'll choose to stick to baseball and your & wite's belief that John Danks is going to become a bad pitcher because he gives up a lot of flyballs currently - if that's what your point is I guess. I can't believe you would honestly believe that billions of people on this planet live and work under desirable conditions but whatever, baseball......

 

I think the right way to look at John Danks is this: going into the year we had 2 questions, 1) is John Danks going to return to the old John Danks, and 2) If not, will he still be able to become an effective Major League pitcher?

 

The answer to #1 is no. #2 we're waiting to see how this all turns out. Can John Danks generally become a 30+ start, 200IP+ starter with an ERA roughly at 4.00 or below on an annual basis? I don't know. It's been done before, but nobody really knows. He's been giving up flyballs but he hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He's been, by his own admission, rededicated to the finer points of pitching and spends a lot of time studying hitters and hitter tendencies. Rather than look for a reason to be pessimistic I would look at his recent success as a reason for optimism.

 

In a vacuum, can John Danks give up flyballs forever and not have bad starts because of it? No. But what do the flyballs look like for one, how is he getting them for two, are the hitters coming close to squaring the ball up off him and just missing or is Danks doing a much better job of keeping them off balance? Further, again, the outs are what is important. He needs to keep getting outs, and yes, he will give up HRs but that means it's more important he keeps the walks way down. Will John Danks continue to put up an ERA of 1.50 or whatever it was that Balta posted re: his last 5 starts? No, he's not Sale. But ERA below 4.00, 200IP, can he do that? Let's not be Negative Nancies around here please? No dark clouds here, just at WSI.

 

[The Ultimate Champion]

I do. This is America.

In America you talk with your stomach and your ass. Ship in resources, chew them up, s*** them back out into the landfill and let the poor people root through it. And it's called 'Merica thank you very much. And we like to fite too. And watch the teevee. f*** yeah.

[caulfield12]

It goes back to that effective velocity article that someone linked.

 

When Danks is throwing nearly every pitch within 4-6 miles of the previous one, and the spotters aren't able to distinguish between fastball/cutter/two-seamer/four-seamer/slider and change-up, then there's a huge problem.

 

As we all know, when you can push that difference to 8-12 MPH, then you have something. With movement and tricking the batter's eye into seeing 87-88 as 92-93, then you can pitch quite effectively...but, as mentioned before, you can't come after hitters when you're behind in the count with your fastball and expect positive results start after start unless your location is just pinpoint.

[Eminor3rd]

Well I could argue at length about the artificial nature of food resources and the like, and how fragile the economy really is and how devastating some of these things can be on the majority of the world's citizens who were not fortunate enough to have been born into a first world country propped up by third world labor under deplorable living and working conditions and so on... but I'll choose to stick to baseball and your & wite's belief that John Danks is going to become a bad pitcher because he gives up a lot of flyballs currently - if that's what your point is I guess. I can't believe you would honestly believe that billions of people on this planet live and work under desirable conditions but whatever, baseball......

 

Yeah, totally. On average, I'd say people would choose to return to the days of the bubonic plague, when lifespans averaged 25-30 years, and when insane religious-driven governments ran Inquisitions and committed mass genocides unchecked across the developed world. Because, you know, progress isn't worthwhile unless it instantly creates Utopia.

 

But baseball...

 

I think the right way to look at John Danks is this: going into the year we had 2 questions, 1) is John Danks going to return to the old John Danks, and 2) If not, will he still be able to become an effective Major League pitcher?

 

The answer to #1 is no. #2 we're waiting to see how this all turns out. Can John Danks generally become a 30+ start, 200IP+ starter with an ERA roughly at 4.00 or below on an annual basis? I don't know. It's been done before, but nobody really knows. He's been giving up flyballs but he hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He's been, by his own admission, rededicated to the finer points of pitching and spends a lot of time studying hitters and hitter tendencies. Rather than look for a reason to be pessimistic I would look at his recent success as a reason for optimism.

 

In a vacuum, can John Danks give up flyballs forever and not have bad starts because of it? No. But what do the flyballs look like for one, how is he getting them for two, are the hitters coming close to squaring the ball up off him and just missing or is Danks doing a much better job of keeping them off balance? Further, again, the outs are what is important. He needs to keep getting outs, and yes, he will give up HRs but that means it's more important he keeps the walks way down. Will John Danks continue to put up an ERA of 1.50 or whatever it was that Balta posted re: his last 5 starts? No, he's not Sale. But ERA below 4.00, 200IP, can he do that? Let's not be Negative Nancies around here please? No dark clouds here, just at WSI.

 

The original point that wite was making is that we have information that tells us that his results have not lined up with his batted ball profile, which is a sign of impending negative regression. It was not that Danks is a garbage pitcher.

 

[iamshack]

Yeah, totally. On average, I'd say people would choose to return to the days of the bubonic plague, when lifespans averaged 25-30 years, and when insane religious-driven governments ran Inquisitions and committed mass genocides unchecked across the developed world. Because, you know, progress isn't worthwhile unless it instantly creates Utopia.

 

But baseball...

 

 

 

The original point that wite was making is that we have information that tells us that his results have not lined up with his batted ball profile, which is a sign of impending negative regression. It was not that Danks is a garbage pitcher.

Question for you...have fly balls always been as dangerous as in recent history (say the last 20 years), or is that a more recent phenomenon brought about as a result of the newer, smaller ballparks and the steroid era?