The first person to use the term "White Flag" gets banned.

 

you just did. banned

you just did. banned

The first person to use the term "White Flag" gets banned.

Thank you! That phrase has been whored so often it should be renamed Paris Hilton.

Thank you! That phrase has been whored so often it should be renamed Paris Hilton.

 

Whoa, easy now

If your odds are 3.7%, it's pretty obvious what side of the buy/sell you should be on.

If your odds are 3.7%, it's pretty obvious what side of the buy/sell you should be on.

 

If selling means getting rid of Beckham, Viciedo, and Dunn we could end up having a better chance of making the playoffs with different guys in there.

Classic "buyers or sellers" situation. If we do buy and make the playoffs, this team still wouldn't make it out of the wild card round.

 

 

If your odds are 3.7%, it's pretty obvious what side of the buy/sell you should be on.

So no, not a classic situation.

 

And you have zero idea what would happen in a wild card game or round. Baseball is so random, it's all about just getting to the playoffs as many times as possible to keep getting a spin of the roulette wheel.

So no, not a classic situation.

 

And you have zero idea what would happen in a wild card game or round. Baseball is so random, it's all about just getting to the playoffs as many times as possible to keep getting a spin of the roulette wheel.

Unless you're the A's then you just keep losing.

Sale vs Garrett Richards? Yeah I'm going with us.

 

Same, was just gonna say the same thing.

The play-in game might as well be 50/50.

 

Jumping 6-8 teams to get there? Nope.

The play-in game might as well be 50/50.

 

Jumping 6-8 teams to get there? Nope.

Not with this bullpen, but only 4 teams in baseball have done better than 6-4 their last 10 games. If you go on a streak, you can leapfrog several teams quickly. I don't think the Sox have the horses for a big streak, but maybe beating the crap out of the Twins 4 times can start something.

Edited July 25, 201411 yr by Dick Allen

It's a race to get to 10-over .500...86-76.

 

What everyone would have to do--

 

NY 33-28

Tor 32-27

Sea 33-27

KC 35-26

Cle 35-25

TB 37-23

Sox 37-22

 

Somebody will meet or exceed this, and it won't be the Sox.

Not with this bullpen, but only 4 teams in baseball have done better than 6-4 their last 10 games. If you go on a streak, you can leapfrog several teams quickly. I don't think the Sox have the horses for a big streak, but maybe beating the crap out of the Twins 4 times can start something.

 

Right but what are the chances that they all continue to choke? For us to get in, an entire series of very specific events must occur, all of them individually plausible but not particularly likely:

 

Sox go on winning streak

Team 1 collapses

Team 2 collapses

Team 3 collapses

Team 4 collapses

Team 5 collapses

Team 6 collapses

 

If even one of those things doesn't happen, we're not in. Even if you give each one 50/50 odds, the chance that all occur is 1.5%. That's super rough math, of course, but I use it just to illustrate how important the number of teams ahead are. Each team ahead of us essentially halves our chances another time over.

 

The actual projections you can find online take ROS season projections into account to be more accurate, and paint us around 3% or so, also accounting for the nonzero chance we'll win the division.

Right but what are the chances that they all continue to choke? For us to get in, an entire series of very specific events must occur, all of them individually plausible but not particularly likely:

 

Sox go on winning streak

Team 1 collapses

Team 2 collapses

Team 3 collapses

Team 4 collapses

Team 5 collapses

Team 6 collapses

 

If even one of those things doesn't happen, we're not in. Even if you give each one 50/50 odds, the chance that all occur is 1.5%. That's super rough math, of course, but I use it just to illustrate how important the number of teams ahead are. Each team ahead of us essentially halves our chances another time over.

 

The actual projections you can find online take ROS season projections into account to be more accurate, and paint us around 3% or so, also accounting for the nonzero chance we'll win the division.

They don't have to collapse is what I'm saying. If the Sox had one of those 25-5 streaks in them they had in 2010, they probably are in. The 2010 team was like this team except for that streak. They were 6 under without that streak. The problem is, the Sox don't have a roster where you can anticipate a real hot run even for 12-15 games, and really don't have pieces that are worth trading for an upgrade that probably still doesn't get them there. I don't think leapfrogging 6 or 8 teams if there is a 5 game difference right now, that big of a deal. The problem is, at least so far on the field and on paper, the Sox roster is probably worse than the teams it would have to jump over, and upgrading the bullpen is going to be tough, unless they are willing to do something that is probably stupid.

Edited July 25, 201411 yr by Dick Allen

Not with this bullpen, but only 4 teams in baseball have done better than 6-4 their last 10 games. If you go on a streak, you can leapfrog several teams quickly. I don't think the Sox have the horses for a big streak, but maybe beating the crap out of the Twins 4 times can start something.

Hadn't the Sox lost six in a row to Minnie before last night or six in a row at target field or something? IMO we'll be lucky still to split.

They don't have to collapse is what I'm saying. If the Sox had one of those 25-5 streaks in them they had in 2010, they probably are in. The 2010 team was like this team except for that streak. They were 6 under without that streak. The problem is, the Sox don't have a roster where you can anticipate a real hot run even for 12-15 games, and really don't have pieces that are worth trading for an upgrade that probably still doesn't get them there. I don't think leapfrogging 6 or 8 teams if there is a 5 game difference right now, that big of a deal. The problem is, at least so far on the field and on paper, the Sox roster is probably worse than the teams it would have to jump over, and upgrading the bullpen is going to be tough, unless they are willing to do something that is probably stupid.

 

We're splitting hairs, and I agree with your point about this team not being built well for a streak of sustained winning -- but the amount of teams they have to "beat" increases the quality of "hot streak" required in order to ensure victory in the absence of 6 "collapses" of the other teams. Sure, a 25-5 streak would put them ahead of the expected performances of all 6 teams, but the 25-5 streak is so astronomically unlikely, that it's a wash. If they only had to get over, say, two teams, then the "hot streak" would maybe "only" have to be something like 20-10 to get in, because we'd already have a better record than so many of the other contenders.

Sale vs Garrett Richards? Yeah I'm going with us.

Funny you say this, MLB Network just did their top ten pitchers. Sale was 7, Richards was 4.

Funny you say this, MLB Network just did their top ten pitchers. Sale was 7, Richards was 4.

By what measure? Because I can't find one that says Richards is better.

Whoa, easy now

Was that a little strong? I was thinking Kim K initially?

By what measure? Because I can't find one that says Richards is better.

Their "machine" which has supposedly been meticulously programmed to determine the game's best pitcher.

Funny you say this, MLB Network just did their top ten pitchers. Sale was 7, Richards was 4.

 

Ok, that is a joke.

the list was

10. Darvish

9. Teheran

8. Kluber

7. Sale

6. Price

5. Wainwright

4. Richards

3. Cueto

2. Kershaw

1. Hernandez

Edited July 25, 201411 yr by Jose Abreu

Their "machine" which has supposedly been meticulously programmed to determine the game's best pitcher.

It's buggy.

Nevermind, 10 wasn't MadBum, it was Yu Darvish

Edited July 25, 201411 yr by Jose Abreu

So no, not a classic situation.

 

And you have zero idea what would happen in a wild card game or round. Baseball is so random, it's all about just getting to the playoffs as many times as possible to keep getting a spin of the roulette wheel.

This is true. Between Bobby Cox and Joe Torre their teams went to the playoffs a combined 31 times Torre's teams won 3 WS Cox 1 . You'd think it would be more but it's genuinely a crap shoot once the playoffs start . Sure having the horses helps a lot but so does riding the hot hand.