Addison Reed trade from DBacks' perspective

[Chisoxfn]

If the Sox had the option of swapping Davidson/Reed again, I would do it. Then I would spin Reed off for a different player. Point being, last year Reed and Davidson had similar values. I would argue Davidson had more especially considering the state of the Sox. Now, after Davidson's abortion of a season, Reed has more value. That doesn't make Reed some stud, just the better contributor of the two.

 

I remember last offseason where it seemed like everyone was excited and posting about Hahn's big four acquisitions since the deadline (Abreu, Eaton, Avi and Davidson). When certain posters started constructing mock lineups with all four reaching their potential, flocks of posters came in with reminders that away from Abreu, the other three players had roughly a 40-60% chance of being regular contributors. Obviously Abreu was a homer, Eaton's right behind him, Garcia is making great strides and Davidson fell on his face. The Sox hit on at least two of their big four with Garcia looking to be a third hit. Why is it so hard for those same posters to accept that Davidson didn't workout? Has anyone ever been able to find a player who had a season like Davidson's in AAA and turned into a big leaguer?

 

My favorite illustration that Davidson was overrated at the time of the trade.

 

Eaton in 562 PAs for Reno (PCL) in 2012 - .381/.456/.539/.995

Davidson in 500 PAs for Reno in 2013 -. 280/.350 /.481 /.831

To be frank, if we want to complain, we should focus our complaints on the Sox scouting department because they bought on Davidson's hype and not his actual skill-set and swing. You can't be that bad in AAA without some major flaws that should have been pretty easy to identify. Maybe they thought they would be easier to fix but making major adjustments to a AAA player swing is not easy. Minor changes, sure, but major changes don't happen much by that point in a players professional development (not from a hitting perspective).

[Chisoxfn]

I think you're missing the point of the arguments that are being made. Or at least what I'm making.

 

Based on what we knew when the trade was made, I'll make it every time. If you told me Davidson would have about as bad a season as we could imagine, I wouldn't want him. But the idea of trading Addison Reed for a top-100 caliber 3B prospect in AAA is fantastic no matter which way you turn it.

 

Now, if you want to say the White Sox missed the boat on the scouting and maybe even argue that the only reason we could make the deal is that AZ knew he was overrated, then I think that's legit. But it's separate from the idea of making the deal based on what we knew at the time.

IF I am Hahn, I am looking back at the trade and the scouting reports and asking our scouts what we missed. Its one thing for guys to fail at the major league level but what he did was fail on an epic proportion. I wish something would come out about a back injury or something that would give more hope. The concept of the trade was a fine one, but our scouting department missed the boat on this one and ultimately we should have targeted another guy.

 

Note: I'm not saying you should be 100% right all the time, that is impossible, but this was a pretty major fail. On the bright side, our scouting department did do a good job at understanding the upside of Addison Reed and knowing some of his limitations. That said, Reed is going to have a long major league career and will have some above average seasons out of the pen.

[greg775]

You knew in January that Nate Jones would be hurt all year?

No. I don't like his pitching motion; I don't like his control; I'm not a Jones guy.

 

Even today, I'd rather have Davidson than Reed.

 

Davidson's upside is huge. Closers are replaced every year.

Except on the Chicago White Sox. The Sox trade a closer with no replacement. Oops, Nate Jones lovers say he'd have been fine.

Look, trading for a third baseman is fine. The Sox thought Davidson would man the position for 10 years. At this point he looks like Josh Fields. We'll see if he gets it together. None of us want Davidson to stink. I will eat my words gladly if he quickly becomes a home run hitting version of Crede or a new Ventura.

One thing we do know is in 2014, on a team that had some life and looked like a possible .500 team, the bullpen totally killed all chances of .500.

Now, .500 wouldn't have been a playoff team so it doesn't matter except to those of us who hate the fact our team has become a joke in the division.

Edited September 24, 2014 by greg775

[witesoxfan]

No. I don't like his pitching motion; I don't like his control; I'm not a Jones guy.

 

 

Except on the Chicago White Sox. The Sox trade a closer with no replacement. Oops, Nate Jones lovers say he'd have been fine.

Look, trading for a third baseman is fine. The Sox thought Davidson would man the position for 10 years. At this point he looks like Josh Fields. We'll see if he gets it together. None of us want Davidson to stink. I will eat my words gladly if he quickly becomes a home run hitting version of Crede or a new Ventura.

One thing we do know is in 2014, on a team that had some life and looked like a possible .500 team, the bullpen totally killed all chances of .500.

Now, .500 wouldn't have been a playoff team so it doesn't matter except to those of us who hate the fact our team has become a joke in the division.

 

But the White Sox did replace Reed as closer and their current closer, Jake Petricka, has been just as effective as Reed was and has been.

[shysocks]

A simple assessment

 

2014 White Sox starting pitching: 4.27 ERA, 25th in MLB

2014 White Sox relief pitching: 4.30 ERA, 28th in MLB

2014 Addison Reed pitching: 4.40 ERA, bottom 10% of qualified relievers

 

So can we stop saying Reed makes this a .500 team, or a competitive team, or a much better team? Can we be at least a little bit grounded in reality?

[Dick Allen]

A simple assessment

 

2014 White Sox starting pitching: 4.27 ERA, 25th in MLB

2014 White Sox relief pitching: 4.30 ERA, 28th in MLB

2014 Addison Reed pitching: 4.40 ERA, bottom 10% of qualified relievers

 

So can we stop saying Reed makes this a .500 team, or a competitive team, or a much better team? Can we be at least a little bit grounded in reality?

I'd take the reliever ERA with a grain of salt. One really bad outing hurts. 3 or 4 are sometimes hard to overcome in a season, but I think I am one of the biggest pro-Reed guys in this thread, and I already did say, the trade didn't cost the White Sox the playoffs.

 

One thing we will never be able to determine is how many of the games where the bullpen fell apart demoralized and affected the team in other games. Hopefully, none, but you have to figure a few. Maybe Reed blows it those games. But IMO Reed would have helped the White Sox this year. We know Davidson did not, and certainly doesn't seem a lock to ever help them.

[caulfield12]

But the White Sox did replace Reed as closer and their current closer, Jake Petricka, has been just as effective as Reed was and has been.

 

 

Except they went through using Lindstrom, Belisario and even Putnam to disastrous results....only to get to the point where we now have a reliever NOBODY believes should be the heir-apparent closer going into 2015 (unless they don't care about competing for the playoffs until 2015).

[witesoxfan]

Except they went through using Lindstrom, Belisario and even Putnam to disastrous results....only to get to the point where we now have a reliever NOBODY believes should be the heir-apparent closer going into 2015 (unless they don't care about competing for the playoffs until 2015).

 

You are missing the point. I didn't care about the means of acquiring said closer or said closer's future prospects as the closer. The point was that the Sox DID have a replacement for Addison Reed.

[2nd_city_saint787]

No. I don't like his pitching motion; I don't like his control; I'm not a Jones guy.

 

I know you don't look at stats but....

 

In the 2nd half last year Jones walked 2.37 guys per 9, Reed walked 4.15.

 

Not sure how they come up with high leverage stats, but Jones walked 2.82 per 9 in high leverage situations, Reed walked 4.31.

 

Jones K numbers were also better than Reeds... 12.08 vs 8.90 in the 2nd half....9.27 vs 7.47 in high leverage.

 

 

 

 

[southsider2k5]

I know you don't look at stats but....

 

In the 2nd half last year Jones walked 2.37 guys per 9, Reed walked 4.15.

 

Not sure how they come up with high leverage stats, but Jones walked 2.82 per 9 in high leverage situations, Reed walked 4.31.

 

Jones K numbers were also better than Reeds... 12.08 vs 8.90 in the 2nd half....9.27 vs 7.47 in high leverage.

 

[Meanwhile, inside greg's brain]

 

[Does fact add up with rant?]

 

[No]

 

[Fact ignored]

 

[Repeat original rant in slightly different form]

 

[greg775]

But the White Sox did replace Reed as closer and their current closer, Jake Petricka, has been just as effective as Reed was and has been.

 

I thought Reed had 30 saves?? Petricka is lousy.

[southsider2k5]

I thought Reed had 30 saves?? Petricka is lousy.

 

If Petricka is lousy, Reed is terrible, at least according to their 2014 stats.

[oldsox]

But the White Sox did replace Reed as closer and their current closer, Jake Petricka, has been just as effective as Reed was and has been.

Damage was already done by the time Petricka got the gig.

[Dick Allen]

Damage was already done by the time Petricka got the gig.

Besides, the White Sox are so broke, they can't afford first year arb guys. They are too expensive. So next year should be the last for Petricka in a Sox uniform. Good thing the White Sox didn't listen to Sox talk and make Webb the closer. 2015 would have to be his final season in a White Sox uniform.

 

I wonder what will be higher. Addison Reed career saves vs. Matt Davidson career hits.

Edited September 24, 2014 by Dick Allen

[oldsox]

IIRC, that same poster also advocates for 26 year old AA journeymen to be promoted and gives up on 19 and 20 year old kids in single-A who don't immediately set the world on fire so there's also that

Who? Courtney Hawkins? I haven't given up on him. Last year, say mid-season 2013 and beyond, I criticized fellow posters for ranking him so high. He improved a bunch this year, and I don't have as much disagreement with where others rank him now. I never called him a 'bust'; others did. Face it, he had a lousy year in 2013. Much better in 2014. Next year is huge for him. I'm pulling for him.

I assume the 26 year old journeyman is Wilkins. Sure, I wanted him promoted to see what he could do. Lots of posters here wanted that. What does that have to do with Hawkins or the Reed/Davidson deal?

[2nd_city_saint787]

Aww man, I saw greg in the thread earlier and hoped he'd address the stats I put up...

[Rowand44]

[Meanwhile, inside greg's brain]

 

[Does fact add up with rant?]

 

[No]

 

[Fact ignored]

 

[Repeat original rant in slightly different form]

I won't even get into the argument but I just like how your point was proven on the next post.

[greg775]

I know you don't look at stats but....

 

In the 2nd half last year Jones walked 2.37 guys per 9, Reed walked 4.15.

 

Not sure how they come up with high leverage stats, but Jones walked 2.82 per 9 in high leverage situations, Reed walked 4.31.

 

Jones K numbers were also better than Reeds... 12.08 vs 8.90 in the 2nd half....9.27 vs 7.47 in high leverage.

Well, you have proof of sorts that Jones would be a fine closer. I guess I'm going to have to see it to believe it in terms of racking up dozens of saves like Reed does. Nice stats, though.

 

If Petricka is lousy, Reed is terrible, at least according to their 2014 stats.

Addison Reed has 31 saves. I know we are only looking at advanced stats, but cmon. Petricka ain't a 31-save guy. I'll give you he's probably the best option in our crud bullpen though.

[caulfield12]

We all know it's a LOT different getting those 3 outs in the 9th than the 7th or 8th.

 

Sure, there will always be anomalies like Grilli, Jim Johnson, Frieri, that rise up for a season or two...but very few (maybe 8-10) can sustain successful closing roles for a minimum of five years or more.

 

It's the reason Dotel and Linebrink struggled when pushed back in the pen (although Dotel was better after leaving the Sox with DET)...and we've seen what happens with guys like Belisario, Petricka and Putnam when they're out of their comfort zone and in uncomfortable positions they're not familiar with.

 

My biggest concern with Jones is simply his lack of movement when he overthrows and his control, which would end up looking like the Bobby Jenks Tightrope we saw the last 2-3 seasons of his Sox career (or Joe Nathan in 2014). If I was a gambling man, I'd guess that Jones wouldn't have lasted a full season (as closer) unless he really refined his offspeed stuff, added a third pitch and/or learned how to consistently get ahead of opposing hitters. Nobody ever confused him for a strike thrower, like a Foulke.

 

I do think Jones would have done better (if healthy) than Lindstrom or Belisario, but consistent enough to nail down the job permanently....probably not.

Edited September 25, 2014 by caulfield12

[Quin]

Next year Davidson will hit 30 homers and Nate Jones will have 60 saves.

[SoxAce]

Next year Davidson will hit 30 homers and Nate Jones will have 60 saves.

Impossible since Jones won't be back till like 2016.

[Dick Allen]

There has been a couple of posts earlier about Reed being old. People might be a little shocked to know Petricka is actually older than Reed by a few months. Reed is still 25.

[greg775]

There has been a couple of posts earlier about Reed being old. People might be a little shocked to know Petricka is actually older than Reed by a few months. Reed is still 25.

 

Is anybody THAT high on Petricka? I mean he might be the best of our rotten bullpen and I wish him the best but is he a great prospect?

[Quin]

It's like this thread is stuck on an awful repeat.

[Kyyle23]

There has been a couple of posts earlier about Reed being old. People might be a little shocked to know Petricka is actually older than Reed by a few months. Reed is still 25.

 

I will be shocked that anyone cares.