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Jose Abreu

Rumors that Cespedes is opting out

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QUOTE (dpd9189 @ Oct 9, 2016 -> 09:20 PM)
I expect Frazier to be in a different uniform on Opening Day 2017.

If so then you should also expect to see Sale, Q, Abreu, and Eaton in a different uniform as well. No reason to sell off a low salary high power infielder unless you're going full rebuild.

 

I'd find it more likely that Frazier gets extended than sold in the offseason.

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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 12:15 AM)
A lot of that was due to many more pop-ups and more weak contact

I mean, a low BABIP is indicative of bad luck, but I'll take your anecdotal evidence into consideration.

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QUOTE (Reddy @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 12:29 AM)
I mean, a low BABIP is indicative of bad luck, but I'll take your anecdotal evidence into consideration.

 

Pop ups are a fraction of an inch from being hits.

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QUOTE (Reddy @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 12:29 AM)
I mean, a low BABIP is indicative of bad luck, but I'll take your anecdotal evidence into consideration.

Per Fangraphs:

 

Line drive percentage decreased from 19.1% in 2015 to 15.7%.

Ground ball percentage increased from 33.1% in 2015 to 35.6%.

Pop-up/infield fly ball percentage increased from 16.8% in 2015 to 18.5%.

Soft contact percentage increased from 18.4% in 2015 to 20.7%.

Hard contact percentage decreased from 37.3% in 2015 to 31.3%.

 

Here is a supplementary article that explains it all as well.

 

Of course your BABIP is gonna be extremely low when you're popping out, hitting fewer line drives, and hitting weak grounders far more often than you used to.

Is that enough evidence for you?

Edited by Jose Abreu

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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 11:29 AM)
Per Fangraphs:

 

Line drive percentage decreased from 19.1% in 2015 to 15.7%.

Ground ball percentage increased from 33.1% in 2015 to 35.6%.

Pop-up/infield fly ball percentage increased from 16.8% in 2015 to 18.5%.

Soft contact percentage increased from 18.4% in 2015 to 20.7%.

Hard contact percentage decreased from 37.3% in 2015 to 31.3%.

 

Here is a supplementary article that explains it all as well.

 

Of course your BABIP is gonna be extremely low when you're popping out, hitting fewer line drives, and hitting weak grounders far more often than you used to.

Is that enough evidence for you?

 

You're talking very small numbers here. Frazier put 394 balls in play this year.

 

So overall this year he hit (versus what he would have with last years percentages):

13 less line drives

10 more ground balls

7 more popups

9 more softly hit balls

23 less hard hit balls

 

Obviously some of those overlap too (less lines drives / less hard hit balls, popups / softly hit balls). Those type of numbers do not entirely equate to a 35 point drop in BABIP. His hard hit ball percentage is pretty well right in line with his career numbers but his BABIP was 40+ points less than his career mark. Part of that can be attributed to a higher HR/FB% but overall he did have some bad luck this year. No reason to think he can't rebound at least some.

 

 

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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 12:30 PM)
You're talking very small numbers here. Frazier put 394 balls in play this year.

 

So overall this year he hit (versus what he would have with last years percentages):

13 less line drives

10 more ground balls

7 more popups

9 more softly hit balls

23 less hard hit balls

 

Obviously some of those overlap too (less lines drives / less hard hit balls, popups / softly hit balls). Those type of numbers do not entirely equate to a 35 point drop in BABIP. His hard hit ball percentage is pretty well right in line with his career numbers but his BABIP was 40+ points less than his career mark. Part of that can be attributed to a higher HR/FB% but overall he did have some bad luck this year. No reason to think he can't rebound at least some.

I know he had some bad luck, but a lot of his poor performance was definitely on him and not luck, due to the stats I cited. As you said, BABIP is also low due to his HR%. BABIP is known to penalize big time HR hitters since a HR is technically not "in play"- Mark Trumbo's, for example was .278.

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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 10:39 AM)
I know he had some bad luck, but a lot of his poor performance was definitely on him and not luck, due to the stats I cited. As you said, BABIP is also low due to his HR%. BABIP is known to penalize big time HR hitters since a HR is technically not "in play"- Mark Trumbo's, for example was .278.

Weird how a HR isn't a ball in play . Any ball hit between the foul poles should be considered in play. HR hitters shouldn't be penalized for what's considered the best struck ball you can hit. Might not be the hardest hit but distance counts in this game whether or not it's hit like a rocket.

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 03:52 PM)
Weird how a HR isn't a ball in play . Any ball hit between the foul poles should be considered in play. HR hitters shouldn't be penalized for what's considered the best struck ball you can hit. Might not be the hardest hit but distance counts in this game whether or not it's hit like a rocket.

 

In this vein, it is worth pointing out that Todd Frazier also put up the highest HR rate of his career. Last year was his previous best of 17.7 AB/HR, this past season he improved it to 14.8 AB/HR, which also contributes to a lower BABIP.

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QUOTE (Reddy @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 12:29 AM)
I mean, a low BABIP is indicative of bad luck, but I'll take your anecdotal evidence into consideration.

 

The point he's making is that luck is only one factor of BABIP.

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 03:52 PM)
Weird how a HR isn't a ball in play . Any ball hit between the foul poles should be considered in play. HR hitters shouldn't be penalized for what's considered the best struck ball you can hit. Might not be the hardest hit but distance counts in this game whether or not it's hit like a rocket.

 

Not really. By definition, a home run is not "in play", as the defense can neither catch the ball for an out, nor can they throw to a base timely to get the hitter out. A home run is one of the three true outcomes (HR, K, BB), none of which effect BABIP.

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 01:06 PM)
Not really. By definition, a home run is not "in play", as the defense can neither catch the ball for an out, nor can they throw to a base timely to get the hitter out. A home run is one of the three true outcomes (HR, K, BB), none of which effect BABIP.

 

What about an inside the park homer?

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 01:08 PM)
What about an inside the park homer?

 

Those are so rare as to be statistically irrelevant.

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 01:21 PM)
But should still count as balls in play.

 

And they do, at least as far as I'm aware, but I'm not the BABIP police.

Edited by Dam8610

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 03:18 PM)
And they do, at least as far as I'm aware, but I'm not the BABIP police.

I don't think they are.

 

What if you hit a ball over the wall and missed 3B rounding the bases and you were called out on appeal? Technically it's a double. Would that be considered a ball in play.

 

Pretty rare. Carlos May once missed home plate hitting a ball over the wall. He got a triple.

 

 

The ball that bounced off Canseco's head over the wall for a HR, was technically in play for a bit.

Edited by Dick Allen

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 01:11 PM)
Those are so rare as to be statistically irrelevant.

 

I mean what are we talking about 5 in all of baseball in a year? Maybe 10? Let me put it this way, the AL had almost 100,000 PAs this season. Even if there were 10 hit in the AL this year, we are talking about a 1 in 10,000 event. We are talking about 0.0001.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 03:36 PM)
I mean what are we talking about 5 in all of baseball in a year? Maybe 10? Let me put it this way, the AL had almost 100,000 PAs this season. Even if there were 10 hit in the AL this year, we are talking about a 1 in 10,000 event. We are talking about 0.0001.

/discussion

 

BABIP is actually a very useful stat if you can interpret it and take contact type/HR rate into consideration.

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So Cespedes is actually opting out.

 

Eaton

Cabrera

Abreu

Cespedes

Frazier

DH

Anderson

Saladino/Lawrie

C

 

#ALLIN

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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Oct 27, 2016 -> 07:17 AM)
So Cespedes is actually opting out.

 

Eaton

Cabrera

Abreu

Cespedes

Frazier

DH

Anderson

Saladino/Lawrie

C

 

#ALLIN

 

Trumbo DH, go get a #3 SP and boom playoffs. Maybe? Probably not because that isn't how it works with the Sox no matter who we sign. Most of us on this board liked the moves of the last 2 off-seasons but we still were average at best.

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