What it takes to get back into it by the All-Star Break?

[maki]

I've been thinking a bunch about what it actually takes to get back into a race depending on how far back you're at and the possibility of such a run with a specific team. Right now we're at 20-24. Right now we have to bank on the hope it may take a game or 2 less to win the division than last year, putting it at 87 or 86 wins before discussing a tie.

 

I think a sweet spot would be 46-43 or so by the break. That means we go 26-19 in the games leading up to the break. That means we play .578 ball from now until then, leading to an achievalbe 2nd half, provided you can play at a level at or slightly below that run. 2 or so more losses makes it a tougher path when you're looking at 44-45.

Break it down further and I think you'll see the difficulty in getting something like this done.

 

Next 9 - 2 in LA. 3 in KC with Greinke and Bannister, whose ERA is back up to 2.79, but has pitched well outside of the Cleveland outing 2 starts ago. Then you come back for 4 against Oakland, where you're going to have to go 3-1, no easy task. I don't think you can expect 2-3 in KC and 3-1 against Oak, but 1 is a good possibility. You're probably looking at 5-4 as a favorable result

 

Then you've got 3 with Cleveland and 5 with Detroit. Favorable outcome 5-3.

Follow that with a road trip through the NL central, which unfortunately doesn't include a stop in Pittsburgh. Winning 2 out of these 3 series is difficult and unlikely, with a lot contingent on how Cincy's rotation sets up. at 4-5 this trip is probably a success.

 

Next, Dodgers and Cubs at home. These are about as tough as 6 home games in a row will be this season. If we go 4-2 that's a stellar showing.

 

7 game trip to Cleveland and KC - 4-3 again is possibly achievable.

 

Finally you've got 6 central games with 3 vs Cleveland and 3 at Minny. Favorable outcome 3-3 considering our great success in the dome.

 

 

Those breakdowns put you at 25-20 and 45-44 through the break. This isn't a terrible place to be but its tough to get there as I've generally skewed towards a positive bias on almost all scenarios. Combine that with the fact that I don't believe .600 ball is sustainable for this ballclub over the 2nd half. If we can't win either of the Angels or Royals series right now we're in a hole that we're probably not getting out of.

 

 

Most of this was brought on by the Score conversation this morning with Zaidman I believe, who refuses to acknowledge the lovable losers may be in trouble. If Milwaukee or St Louis can manage 90+ wins they're in a similar spot. The only difference I can see is the Cubs have a greater ability to run off 6-8 wins in a row and can possibly play a sustainable .600 or so in the central.

 

I guess I'm surprised by how much you actually know through 45 games or so into the season. In a game generally played slightly above or below .500 making up even 5-6 games requires a lot of work.

 

 

this is definitely too long, hopefully somebody cares to read and discuss.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

We are 5.5 games out with 3/4 of the season to go. We are still "in" it. Teams have come back from way further back against better teams.

[wilmot825]

I have a feeling that Kenny has a few trades up his sleeve to get us back into and infront the Central race.

[hogan873]

Good analysis of what the team needs to do in order to have a chance. Playing .578 ball before the all star break (and beyond) is achievable, even with the team as it stands now. If they are in this position come June/July, expect KW to make a move or two which would hopefully strengthen the chances of taking the division. Winning last night (big) against the Angels was huge, and one would hope they can take at least one more against the Halos. That would be a great start towards being in a favorable position at the all star break.

[maki]

We are 5.5 games out with 3/4 of the season to go. We are still "in" it. Teams have come back from way further back against better teams.

 

 

they've also arguably had better teams themselves. a team that meddles along at .500 for a quarter season working through the kinks with a well-constructed team or one battling through injuries is a completely different story where you have to decide if they're simply underachieving or will figure it out. Even if we "figure it out" we can't play .600 baseball from here on out.

 

[ThunderBolt]

Keep winning (at least) 2 out 0f 3.

[Kyyle23]

The way I see it right now the Sox are a good 2 week stretch from getting back into it. Not a 12-0 record, but winning each series.

[jasonxctf]

now you've obviously said by the all star break, however lets take a big look at this.

 

14 games left versus Detroit including 6 of the last 9 games of the season.

 

Can the Sox go 10-4 verus Detroit? If so, then there's your division lead.

[Baines3]

I have a feeling that Kenny has a few trades up his sleeve to get us back into and infront the Central race.

 

 

I agree. I think KW has a few trades planned also. I look for him to go after another solid starter, not sure who we would trade but I think a trade or two will be made.

[greg775]

Good analysis, but in reality what we need is a kick ass winning streak.

Without winning eight or 10 in a row at some point or going 8-2 or 9-2 or something, forget it.

 

[CanOfCorn]

Good analysis, but in reality what we need is a kick ass winning streak.

Without winning eight or 10 in a row at some point or going 8-2 or 9-2 or something, forget it.

 

While that's great...winning series is more important. Sweeping the occasional series helps, but going 2 for 3 is the way to go, especially in this division.

[clyons]

We are 5.5 games out with 3/4 of the season to go. We are still "in" it. Teams have come back from way further back against better teams.

 

Absolutely. Its over a month and a half to the All-Star break. We just need to win series and work our way up the standings one team at a time.

 

I'm not especially thrilled with this team, but that's certainly not beyond the realm of possibility, even as presently assembled.

[Jimbo's Drinker]

A good start from Colon will go a long way in the grand scheme of things. I have confidence in other starters to sustain a nice winnning streak.

[ILMOU]

A good start from Colon will go a long way in the grand scheme of things. I have confidence in other starters to sustain a nice winnning streak.

 

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

This.

 

The acquisition of a stud veteran righty (like Oswalt, Peavy) could provide a mentor for Floyd, the way it seems that Buehrle is a mentor for Danks, Richard. Danks has shown some of guttiness and intangibles as Buehrle's, and Richard's looking better as a starter, for some reason.

 

If such an acquisition happens, I can see lots of winning streaks ahead, but I'm thinking I might want to work a deal without Richard. He may be a competent fifth starter long term, and he'll remain cheap.

 

[WCSox]

they've also arguably had better teams themselves. a team that meddles along at .500 for a quarter season working through the kinks with a well-constructed team or one battling through injuries is a completely different story where you have to decide if they're simply underachieving or will figure it out. Even if we "figure it out" we can't play .600 baseball from here on out.

 

Given that Floyd, Danks, and most of the offense is under-performing and we're not far below .500, I don't think that things are that bleak. Even without a big-name addition at the deadline, this team is capable of winning 90-92 games. And that's about what it'll take to win the Central.

 

[Baines3]

As soutsider2k5 said we're only 5.5 games out. If we can keep hitting and get goog pitching we can pick that up. Teams have come from farther back then we are and made the playoffs.

[VAfan]

The Sox have to get the kind of consistent starting they have gotten after the 20-1 debacle. Colon has to pitch solidly at least 50% of the time. The bullpen can't afford to blow late leads, as it has several times. And we need a couple more guys to start hitting. I'd say the key is Ramirez, who seems to be starting to turn it on again. But we also need a healthy Quentin, and for 2 of the 3 guys at 2B, 3B, and CF to hit.

[Steve9347]

The Sox have to get the kind of consistent starting they have gotten after the 20-1 debacle.

Jake Peavy will help. Having him in the rotation instead of Clayton will make all the difference.

 

/alternate universe where Peavy doesn't suck balls.

 

[The Ginger Kid]

sweep the five game series with the kitties and we'll be well long before the break...

[GreatScott82]

Make a trade for a stud righty. (I really want Oswalt)

 

Bring up Beckham to replace Josh Fields.

 

A healthy Carlos Quentin, a Scotty 2 step Pods and BA to continue to impress. If those things happen and Clayton Richard proves he can be a dependable starter- we could definitley get back in this.

 

 

[ThunderBolt]

Keep playing like we're playing.

[Harry Chappas]

If they don't blow Sunday's game they would be 3.5 back. 4.5 back and it is not even June 1st.

[T R U]

Make a trade for a stud righty. (I really want Oswalt)

 

Problem with Oswalt is Houston wouldn't be giving him to us like SD was ready to Peavy. And yes, I consider giving up Richard and Poreda and two possible meh PTBNL a give away for a pitcher of Peavy/Oswalt calibur.

[Lemon_44]

another thing to consider is, if i counted correctly, the Sox have will have played 18 road games in May. That's a ton for one month. The good thing is that it evens out in September when they play only 11.So, if they are at or near the top come Sep 1, you have to like their chances.

[SnB]

don't get shutout, don't pitch jose contreras.