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Yoenis Cespedes traded to Detroit for Rick Porcello

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QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 04:36 PM)
I think it was more along the lines of Cooper knowing how to make Noesi more effective than the Sox saying he needs to be starting because his stats were better.

Of course - they claimed him because they thought they could fix him. But they still took a middle reliever and immediately put him in the rotation.

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QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 05:00 PM)
Eh?

 

 

Do any projections have JD Martinez improving on last year?

 

Or Conor?

 

 

Obviously, the Tigers weren't willing to trust Rajai Davis to repeat his 2014, especially the first 3-4 months. They also weren't able to stomach a defensive black hole in CF manned by the likes of Don Kelly.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 07:29 PM)
Do any projections have JD Martinez improving on last year?

 

Or Conor?

 

 

Obviously, the Tigers weren't willing to trust Rajai Davis to repeat his 2014, especially the first 3-4 months. They also weren't able to stomach a defensive black hole in CF manned by the likes of Don Kelly.

 

Well first off, they aren't even remotely close to the same type of player, so putting them on the same projection path is odd to say the least. Second off, you indicated that maybe he was going to attempt the same thing Conor did, not "he won't improve because it is not likely". And that is even more odd when you read it the way you put it. And this is because what Conor did was sacrifice power for average, which i certainly dont see Martinez doing.

 

I dunno man, sometimes your streams of consciousness in these threads are a bit out there.

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QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 07:50 PM)
Well first off, they aren't even remotely close to the same type of player, so putting them on the same projection path is odd to say the least. Second off, you indicated that maybe he was going to attempt the same thing Conor did, not "he won't improve because it is not likely". And that is even more odd when you read it the way you put it. And this is because what Conor did was sacrifice power for average, which i certainly dont see Martinez doing.

 

I dunno man, sometimes your streams of consciousness in these threads are a bit out there.

 

 

Both players were acquired for next to nothing or garbage.

 

Both players were originally pretty highly-regarded.

 

Both players had career "outlier" years in 2014.

 

Both players are not expected to repeat their 2014 performance in 2015.

 

 

Maybe it would be better simply to have said both had arguably flukey seasons (for altogether different reasons) and the chances of seeing the same results in 2015 are arguable at best. I was never intending to delve so deeply into the particular reasons for their success, offensive approaches, etc. Just a general statement.

Edited by caulfield12

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i just don't know, does anyone think that Det just screwed themself by

trading Rick Porcello?

 

i just can't see the logic. so for all those who are smart about baseball,

which is almost everyone here, i would like to read your opinions, again.

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i just don't know, does anyone think that Det just screwed themself by

trading Rick Porcello?

 

i just can't see the logic. so for all those who are smart about baseball,

which is almost everyone here, i would like to read your opinions, again.

 

Yes, I think trading Porcello for Cespedes was a bad deal, compounded by the fact that they don't seem to be getting Scherzer back.

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Dombrowski says that they aren't talking to Scherzer, but I wouldn't be surprised if he returns to Detroit. That's another reason why I want the Sox to sign him.

If he joins our rotation, the Sox would be consensus picks to win the Division. If Detroit signs him, they are still the team to beat.

 

The Sox don't have a single big long term, expensive contract. That's the one that would put them over the top.

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QUOTE (Lillian @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 08:25 AM)
Dombrowski says that they aren't talking to Scherzer, but I wouldn't be surprised if he returns to Detroit. That's another reason why I want the Sox to sign him.

If he joins our rotation, the Sox would be consensus picks to win the Division. If Detroit signs him, they are still the team to beat.

 

The Sox don't have a single big long term, expensive contract. That's the one that would put them over the top.

I can't see the Sox signing Scherzer (not that I wouldn't love it) and then extending Shark as well..Thats gotta be 50 mil for 2 pitchers an we'd still need a corner outfielder.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 09:14 AM)
What the f*** is going on?

 

Cespedes in Comerica will be lolworthy.

Yeah - I'm not sure what the Tigers are thinking here.

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QUOTE (Lillian @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 07:25 AM)
Dombrowski says that they aren't talking to Scherzer, but I wouldn't be surprised if he returns to Detroit. That's another reason why I want the Sox to sign him.

If he joins our rotation, the Sox would be consensus picks to win the Division. If Detroit signs him, they are still the team to beat.

 

The Sox don't have a single big long term, expensive contract. That's the one that would put them over the top.

Not according to war projections (see Dave Cameron article).

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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 02:19 PM)
Yeah - I'm not sure what the Tigers are thinking here.

 

det got a player who is going to be there for 1 yr, then FA, Porcello

is going to be a fa when??

 

det just weaken themself with the pitching rotation. unless they

sign or trade for another #1 pitcher, what are they thinking.

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QUOTE (LDF @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 09:44 AM)
det got a player who is going to be there for 1 yr, then FA, Porcello

is going to be a fa when??

 

det just weaken themself with the pitching rotation. unless they

sign or trade for another #1 pitcher, what are they thinking.

Porcello is also a free agent at the end of this season.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 02:44 PM)
Porcello is also a free agent at the end of this season.

 

many thanks.....

 

so how was this a equal trade for DET. i am really am confuse.

there has to be something else in the works for Det.

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I'd never underestimate Ilitch's ability to just decide to sign someone. I think he's one of those owners who might just tell Dave Dombrowski to go sign Scherzer, at whatever cost.

 

 

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QUOTE (South Sider @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 03:02 PM)
I'd never underestimate Ilitch's ability to just decide to sign someone. I think he's one of those owners who might just tell Dave Dombrowski to go sign Scherzer, at whatever cost.

 

i know. which is why i am stating that JR need to spend a little more.

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QUOTE (Lillian @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 07:25 AM)
Dombrowski says that they aren't talking to Scherzer, but I wouldn't be surprised if he returns to Detroit. That's another reason why I want the Sox to sign him.

If he joins our rotation, the Sox would be consensus picks to win the Division. If Detroit signs him, they are still the team to beat.

 

The Sox don't have a single big long term, expensive contract. That's the one that would put them over the top.

I would love scherzer but don't want that contract on this team. But anyways, I agree, I don't believe the Tigers are completely out on scherzer like dombroski claims. He said the same thing about fielder then signed him like a week later lol. Also, there just aren't many options for scherzer. Only big market/high payroll teams can afford him and a lot aren't going to sign him that are known like LAD, LAA, Cubs, at this point most likely not Red Sox with all their pitching additions, Giants I don't think since they would have got lester instead, so that leaves the Yankees and tigers? And haven't really heard much on the Yankees getting him but they probably are quietly doing this?

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 03:37 PM)
I can't f***ing wait to get a real keyboard here tonight so I can argue better. Typing on tablet sucks I am 4 days out of biletrral patellar tendon repair and just now starting to get life back in order.

 

Noesis splits as a Sox are very comparable to Simons. And Simon has no ability to eat innings asmamreliever turned starter that collapsed in august and sept.

How did you rupture both patellar tendon? That is absolutely awful. You have my sympathies. You will recover but you have agreat deal of work ahead.

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QUOTE (Melissa1334 @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 03:09 PM)
I would love scherzer but don't want that contract on this team. But anyways, I agree, I don't believe the Tigers are completely out on scherzer like dombroski claims. He said the same thing about fielder then signed him like a week later lol. Also, there just aren't many options for scherzer. Only big market/high payroll teams can afford him and a lot aren't going to sign him that are known like LAD, LAA, Cubs, at this point most likely not Red Sox with all their pitching additions, Giants I don't think since they would have got lester instead, so that leaves the Yankees and tigers? And haven't really heard much on the Yankees getting him but they probably are quietly doing this?

 

getting Scherzer will be a major coup. but as Hahn said the other day,

the team may not have the room to bring in a 20 + mil player, or

something to that effect.

 

a trade, maybe headed by Hawkins + prospects, can get the sox a 1

yr fix. someone like Leake. someone who can come in and be a plus

at the #4 pitcher.

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There is another way to look at a potential Scherzer signing. Let's assume that the Sox did sign Scherzer. Since Samardjiza is only signed for one year, at around $10 Million, at the end of the season he would have to decide whether to stay on the

South Side, be part of a good chance to win a few World Championships, playing for his favorite team, close to home, or going for more money and signing somewhere else. If he is going to cost really

big money, I would rather have it invested in Scherzer, who is the better of the two pitchers. The Sox would be in a much better bargaining position, when negotiating his extension, if Scherzer were on the

staff. And, if Jeff walked, they would still have a great rotation with Rodon added, or get someone else.

 

Look, the money that teams are spending on pitching means that if you really want a shot at a couple of Championships, you are going to have to spend. If J. R. wants that chance, I'm confident that he

knows that it will cost him more than the current projected payroll. because of the pitching they already have, this team is really close to being able to win multiple World Series Rings, and you can be

certain that Mr. Reinsdorf knows it.

 

I understand all of this parity, and that so many teams can get into the playoffs, but dominating pitching is still the best weapon, if you want to win it all. Every team has a 5 man rotation, but most simply

make do with the 4th and 5th starters, and hope to find a solid 1 - 3. That's a lot of games that they are not putting a really competitive team on the field. What kind of a chance would those teams have if

the rested their 2 or 3 best hitters, every 4th and 5Th game, and went with bench players? It's understandable with the cost of pitching, but it's still a major obstacle to winning.

 

The Sox would be in the rare and enviable position of having a great staff, 1 through 5, with Scherzer. Even with just an average offense, and respectable defense, they would have to be favorites.

Edited by Lillian

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QUOTE (LDF @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 09:58 AM)
getting Scherzer will be a major coup. but as Hahn said the other day,

the team may not have the room to bring in a 20 + mil player, or

something to that effect.

 

a trade, maybe headed by Hawkins + prospects, can get the sox a 1

yr fix. someone like Leake. someone who can come in and be a plus

at the #4 pitcher.

I basically ignore every baseball exec when it comes to $$ talk at this time of year. Zero of them are going to say "hells yes we have tons o' cash we're just lookin' to burn up!!!"

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I like the trade for DET. I have never been a big Porcello guy. Yeah, he's a solid pitcher, but prior to last season, he was in every way shape and form, a back of the rotation pitcher. He took a nice step forward last year, but with only one year of control remaining, it made sense for DET to upgrade their OF. Not to mention, they got a guy in Wilson who will be in their pen, plus a low level lottery ticket. It also freed up about $2M for this coming year. It wasn't a great move by any stretch, but Cespedes will help them.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 10:45 AM)
I like the trade for DET. I have never been a big Porcello guy. Yeah, he's a solid pitcher, but prior to last season, he was in every way shape and form, a back of the rotation pitcher. He took a nice step forward last year, but with only one year of control remaining, it made sense for DET to upgrade their OF. Not to mention, they got a guy in Wilson who will be in their pen, plus a low level lottery ticket. It also freed up about $2M for this coming year. It wasn't a great move by any stretch, but Cespedes will help them.

 

If you want to look at it glass half full, Porcello seems like he's been around forever, but he was a top 20 prospect years ago, reached the majors at 20 years old and is only just turning 26. Last year was the first year he finally put up a shiny ERA, but he's been pretty good in FIP and WAR for a few years now. I think he has finally put it together and will be a solid #3 or #2 starter from here on out.

 

And for the record Cespedes is also a free agent at the end of the year for the Tigers. Wilson is the definition of a AAAA reliever, whose ERA is an outlier according to FIP. The other kid they got in the deal wouldn't even see the big leagues for another 4 years or so, if he doesn't fall apart between now and then.

 

I don't think Detroit did bad, but I like the trade better for Red Sox since they struck out on the big names pitchers, but was able to trade from an area of surplus to fill their needs, while getting good value in return.

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QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 11:05 AM)
If you want to look at it glass half full, Porcello seems like he's been around forever, but he was a top 20 prospect years ago, reached the majors at 20 years old and is only just turning 26. Last year was the first year he finally put up a shiny ERA, but he's been pretty good in FIP and WAR for a few years now. I think he has finally put it together and will be a solid #3 or #2 starter from here on out.

 

And for the record Cespedes is also a free agent at the end of the year for the Tigers. Wilson is the definition of a AAAA reliever, whose ERA is an outlier according to FIP. The other kid they got in the deal wouldn't even see the big leagues for another 4 years or so, if he doesn't fall apart between now and then.

 

I don't think Detroit did bad, but I like the trade better for Red Sox since they struck out on the big names pitchers, but was able to trade from an area of surplus to fill their needs, while getting good value in return.

 

I am well aware of Porcello's pedigree and Cespedes' contract status. Even without the lottery ticket and Wilson, who will compete for a spot in their pen, they still needed help in the OF big time and flipped one year of a mid rotation pitcher for a guy that is going to add to a very formidable middle of the line up.

 

It is the definition of a good baseball trade.

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QUOTE (Lillian @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 05:34 PM)
There is another way to look at a potential Scherzer signing. Let's assume that the Sox did sign Scherzer. Since Samardjiza is only signed for one year, at around $10 Million, at the end of the season he would have to decide whether to stay on the

South Side, be part of a good chance to win a few World Championships, playing for his favorite team, close to home, or going for more money and signing somewhere else. If he is going to cost really

big money, I would rather have it invested in Scherzer, who is the better of the two pitchers. The Sox would be in a much better bargaining position, when negotiating his extension, if Scherzer were on the

staff. And, if Jeff walked, they would still have a great rotation with Rodon added, or get someone else.

 

Look, the money that teams are spending on pitching means that if you really want a shot at a couple of Championships, you are going to have to spend. If J. R. wants that chance, I'm confident that he

knows that it will cost him more than the current projected payroll. because of the pitching they already have, this team is really close to being able to win multiple World Series Rings, and you can be

certain that Mr. Reinsdorf knows it.

 

I understand all of this parity, and that so many teams can get into the playoffs, but dominating pitching is still the best weapon, if you want to win it all. Every team has a 5 man rotation, but most simply

make do with the 4th and 5th starters, and hope to find a solid 1 - 3. That's a lot of games that they are not putting a really competitive team on the field. What kind of a chance would those teams have if

the rested their 2 or 3 best hitters, every 4th and 5Th game, and went with bench players? It's understandable with the cost of pitching, but it's still a major obstacle to winning.

 

The Sox would be in the rare and enviable position of having a great staff, 1 through 5, with Scherzer. Even with just an average offense, and respectable defense, they would have to be favorites.

 

 

thanks, and this was a good post. here is the 1 part i have with it.

 

getting Scherzer will be great, but will not give the sox some wiggle room to make any late

unexpected deicisions. getting a pitcher even if its a 1 yr fix, can keep the team improving

and make some little changes. the one factor i will like the sox not to get into is a full team

without having room to make any minor fixes.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 12:31 PM)
I am well aware of Porcello's pedigree and Cespedes' contract status. Even without the lottery ticket and Wilson, who will compete for a spot in their pen, they still needed help in the OF big time and flipped one year of a mid rotation pitcher for a guy that is going to add to a very formidable middle of the line up.

 

It is the definition of a good baseball trade.

 

I like that you keep bringing up that Porcello only has 1 year left, when Cespedes is also an FA next year.

 

Both teams got fair value from the deal. The difference is Red Sox traded from a position of strength, even without Cespedes, they have no less than 6 guys who can start in OF for them. They needed an SP badly and did not overpay for one. The Tigers on the other hand are left with Price, the fragile Anibal Sanchez and a declining Verlander as reliable starters. Yes, they needed a glove in the OF, but are now left with another hole in the rotation.

 

We also shouldn't overlooked the fact that Porcello has made improvements each and every year. He's likely to be better than last year.

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