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I don't know what we get out of Burke and Kay, but it is typically a bad idea to expect a lot out of a guy in his first season off of TJS, especially for someone who already has a below average velocity.

What context is needed? This is a bullpen that is so bad, it has caused the team to preform under their expected record by about 20 games the last two years. There really hasn't been any substantive changes from the last year to this year, so I wouldn't expect that to change until the people out there do.

Interesting. So a former consensus top 70 prospect stinks because of why? Did you actually watch Kay pitch in the NPB? And I guess Burke performing fairly well down the stretch is meaningless for reasons unknown.

Historically awful in what context?

Yes.

I’m really excited to see what Thorpe looks like after he returns. I’ve probably been higher on him than most.

This bullpen is, and continues to be, historically awful. Even getting back to "average" would involve massive overhaul of the people out there.

You think Burke, Thorpe, & Kay stink?

Yeah, I don’t think we need to add 4 high leverage relievers to perform at a semi normalized level in one run games. Add veteran like Fairbanks, use Taylor more in high leverage situations, and hope for some better luck. We don’t an elite bullpen to not underperform our expected W-L record by 10 games.

I think an 80 win best case scenario exists assuming they keep Robert and he is healthy. Realistically I think they fight to get out of the 90 loss range.

There is a lot to unpack in the quote Really shines light on why the organization has been so dysfunctional and unable to be consistently competitive

That's the fun of baseball, I guess it could happen. That said, this team has very little pitching and could very well lose 100 games again. Big error ranges though, as Teel and Colson offer some upside to envision. Of course they also offer downside. Shane taking a step back after an innings load increase wouldn't be surprising, and the rest of the starters stink.

If everything goes well I could see 75 wins…which is competitive compared to the past 2 years. Still a good bit to go in order to be actually competitive in terms of making a serious playoff run though.

Yep, reallocate the resources

Could free up salary for the Mets to take Robert though.

The bullpen is not good. As of right now, there will be 2 arms that haven't pitched above A-ball.

Or 4.

Which is why I’m saying we should invest in a high leverage reliever.

He probably ain't the leader, but Jerry is up there as a very stupid rich person.

We don’t have a lot of data point yet, but the new lottery system SHOULD at least disincentivize teams for being bad for consecutive years. Pirates and ATH saw 19 and 14 win increases the following season after being ineligible for lottery the following season, and that’s without significant payroll increase. If they choose to spend and address a couple areas of weaknesses I think the likelihood of .500 ball is higher than those numbers would suggest.

That’s fair on the statistical win rate post ASB. However I do think there is a quite a bit of difference between field a team of rookies just getting called up and guys knowing there is not much to play for with two months left on the season vs guys who are a bit more experienced, acclimated to the big leagues, and being on a roster that could compete and play winning baseball. As for what a “competitive roster” looks like, I think that would be another impactful signing or two on SP, RP, and cutting down on the number of guys (2 Rule 5 picks, likes of Mead, Hill, Pereira) auditioning for roster spots. I made this post fully know how Jerry operates, and throwing another $30M on the 2026 team just to get to .500 may not be the best ROI financially for him and his investors, so it may just be wishful thinking.

Well, that probably takes Benintendi to the A's for Severino off the table

Hey, they finally traded Steven Wilson....baby steps, these things take time.