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QUOTE (knightni @ Mar 22, 2010 -> 04:40 AM) My only comment was to a MLB Trade Rumors thread involving Mike Lowell. I'm playing wait-and-see with Teahen. If he can't break .250 by June, I might say something then, because his statistics historically trend similarly to Linebrink's. He bats well early on, then fades in August and September. His september/october ops of .777 is higher than any other month(s). You are correct about his august, as his .718 ops is his lowest.

QUOTE (joeynach @ Mar 18, 2010 -> 06:29 PM) If you read Baseball Between the Numbers, by Baseball Prospectus, they devote a whole chapter of analyzed statistical information to clutchness. The result, there is no single player you can label clutch, in fact clutchness is statistical myth. Nate silver, the creator of PECOTA and and main man behind the scenes at baseball prospectus has a different view. This article and the ones below has to be read in it's entirety to grasp them. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story...rs/ortiz/060405 QUOTE (Kalapse @ Mar 18, 2010 -> 06:32 PM) Good luck trying to convince anyone that this is the case. Believe me, I've tried with very little success. Studies in the past vastly paled in comparison (though they should still most definitely be taken into consideration) The last five year to seven years studies have gotten gradually better and much more in depth. It's terrific really. Both of these are fairly recent by tango. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...he-line-i-want/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...olor-of-clutch/ Cyril Morong's clutch hitting link compilation... both sides of the argument. Silver's and tango's conclusions sum it up pretty nicely, as far as i am concerned. But there will always be people on both sides of the fence. Nothing can be done about that. Sorta off topic... in this link is ''underestimating the fog'' by bill james, i think it is a must read for most anyone due to the simplicity and wealth of information it provides. http://www.sabr.org/cmsfiles/underestimating.pdf

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Mar 18, 2010 -> 11:38 AM) Did I ever say that Santos has the results that Marmol has? The numbers? The pedigree? The long-term potential. No, i did not. The . Because that would be a ridiculous statement. one conclusion i jumped to was one of wishful thinking. Marmol is fastball dominant with a nasty slurve; Santos is fastball dominant with a developing curve. They're both converted position players, and both will be pitching in the City of Chicago. I never said that they were the same guy, only that both feature similar histories and repertories. There's nothing wrong with comparing one pitcher to another. That’s exactly what I did. Marmol was ahead of santos a good 6 years in regards to converting. Marmol got significant innings year after year and at a perfect age, nothing was lost, it was like he was never a position player to begin with. Santos has gone the complete opposite route. I can see small, vague similarities, but when they are so vague to the point they barely exist, it's not much of a comparison. From the very, very limited amount of data available (pitch f/x) santos appears to throw his slider the best. But thesample size is so limited it's not worth a mention. The one thing that is a fact is that his fastball has shown to be severely underwhelming. What do you mean that marmol is fastball dominant? Do you mean that he throws it the majority of the time? Or do you mean that his fastball is his best pitch? Because neither would be true for the last three seasons, and in his rookie season his fastball was very poor.

Hands down rios has the best arm out of our outfielders. He has been terrific in that aspect since he established himself in the league.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Mar 18, 2010 -> 10:20 AM) Santos has the raw stuff to be our version of Carlos Marmol. If he could even reach half that level of results, we'll have a hell of a pitcher. Come on now. He is no where close. No way, no how. Comparing santos to one of the nastiest pitchers in the game will not have many signing up to agree with you. At least i should hope not. How i see it is both have control problems, which is most definitely to be expected from santos, and the slider is their best pitch. Their comparison pretty much ends there. The biggest reason being is there is next to nothing to work off of to evaluate santos. You have to have very limited expectations for someone who is turning 27 in three and a half months who is yet to pitch a full season worth of baseball in any league... regular season and off-season combined. For the organization to expect results in which santos benefits the team seems beyond foolish to me, i would even go as far as saying it's irresponsible. I know, i know, waivers! I don't doubt that he can get by on smoke and mirrors for a limited time (handful of innings) but the control will catch up to him sooner rather than later. Miguel Asencio move on over.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 17, 2010 -> 09:16 PM) As I remember, no player gets suspended for their first positive recreational drug test either, it's a slap on the wrist (it goes up to 50 for the second, as that is what Miguel Negron is faced with). It seems as though MLB is trying to sweep recreational drug use under the rug. Consider that there are 700+ players in the major leagues - do you ever remember a player getting suspended for recreational drug use at the major league level? What are the odds that 0 out of 700 players test positive 2 times for a drug of abuse? In the majors one offense with a stimulant is a slap on the wrist. The second offense is 50, and the third is 80. Minor leaguers and major leaguers (on the 40) get suspended/fined on an entirely different scale than one another... with the minors being much stricter of the two. In the minors you can get suspended heavily (50 games) for something you will only receive a warning for if on the 40 man roster. Hell, as recently as this past decade players in the majors were suspended by days rather than games. In the minors players have always been suspended by games. This is the most recent joint drug agreement. http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/pdf/jda.pdf http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/mlb/news/story?id=4906579 =============================================================================== ''Major League Baseball’s collectively bargained drug policy has undergone changes, adding 12 new performance-enhancing drugs, and 30 new stimulants that players will be tested for''... http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?opt...s&Itemid=42 There is no up to this very moment pdf version of the joint drug agreement (with these add ons) to my knowledge... which is why i said what i said up top. =============================================================================== Here is an outdated link, but the point still applies. This is in regards to how much different the suspensions/fines varied (still do) from the minors to majors. The old agreement was nothing short of a joke, not that it's anything extravagant at this stage. http://www.mlnsports.com/baseball/features...5/03/21/01.html

Pretty much every teams last spot in the pen is nothing more than a rotating door full of terrible production throughout the year. Going into this off-season i was not particularly confident in the bullpen being entirely shored up from the front end to the back end. Now, frighteningly, i actually think i have less confidence than then. Santos is the definition of raw talent, something which he will not be able harness in such a limited period of time. I personally don't give santos a month on the big league roster, and if he is still somehow still around at the all star break, we will all be able to claim that we witnessed a miracle in action. When aquino is your second best option (last spot) you have a problem (big). Basically what it comes down to is a battle to see which piece of s*** smells less. It's terrible. No good reason for it to come down to this. It seems like i have seen very little concern about putz this off-season. Why is this? In my opinion putz is far from a lock to put up good numbers, let alone the possibility of stellar numbers. I will be content if he ends up being just slightly above average at this point. Linkbrink. Enough said. Pena i can potentially see big things out of, but realistically speaking i envision he will be somewhere between slightly above to slightly below average. Hopefully williams gives us a year flash in the pan type year, it would be a big boost to what appears to be a fragile pen. Never under ozzie's reign have both lefties in the pen both had good years. Six full seasons. The last good season the sox got out of a ''loogy'' was 2003, manuel's last season here. Marte's 2005 was terrible despite what looks like a not so terrible era, which was 3.77. For a guy that loves his matchups, it seems kinda odd to me that the loogies have been as bad as they have under him. Really bad. Then again he can only use what is available, which therefore lies on kenny williams shoulders. All in all, the only actual bona fide confidence i have in the pen would be thornton and jenks. Yes, jenks. ============================================================================= I was reading over this thread again and i came across this. I don't know why it bothered me... but it did. QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Feb 23, 2010 -> 11:12 PM) At the Dodgers 13 inning game, he was overpowering the Dodgers players. If they trade for Gonzalez, I'd try and include some throw ins to get Poreda back. I think he could be a good lefty out the pen. QUOTE (Kalapse @ Feb 23, 2010 -> 11:20 PM) Looking at PitchFX data; Poreda threw 13 fastballs in that game (no runners reached base on him so I assume they were all from the windup), the average velocity on his fastball was 92.35 MPH with a max speed of 93.6. For reference: Jenks and Thornton were both clocked at about 95/96 (avg/max) in that same game. QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Feb 23, 2010 -> 11:26 PM) Eh, I was going by eye, because most people were gone at that point so I went and sat around the plate. Maybe the Dodgers were just tired by that point. Now don't let kalapse make you think otherwise... not that i think he was trying to. Overpowering someone does not just entail high velocity. It goes into much greater detail. Throughout this games history some of the very nastiest and most overpowering pitchers are those who are lucky if they can hit 90 on the radar.

Spring training is the best tool we have to determine how the roster will be constructed on opening day. You are not gonna find many that will argue with you about that. But year after year, inevitable and unwarranted roster spots are obtained by someone that got hot at the right moment. By this someone i mean those AAAA fodder type that catch on with a new organization trying to make it, somewhere, anywhere. While on the other hand, another player who is more talented, struggled mightily. Every team has a dewayne wise or two.There was arguably no reason for a player of his caliber to be on the roster, let alone a starter. How many relievers don't even make it three weeks because they get absolutely shelled in their limited outings? It's a good deal. But then again i suppose it is fair, since they got the job based on limited outing in the first place. Between may and june (hell it can be even sooner) all of those replacement players are in the process of being weeded out. The weather comes into play big time, it's huge. Playing in the weather they play in during spring is a complete 180 in comparison to the first month of baseball in a lot of cities, and chicago tends to rank up there on the list. As stated earlier, pitches are very flat with limited bite, which is not an exaggeration. 20-80 at-bats should not be looked at as anything more than what it is, 20-80 at-bats. Sample size. I feel the sox organization/players bought the andruw jones hype. This is not the first time organizations/players have said the same thing him in the past couple of seasons. As we know, he ended up falling on his face. Hopefully this time around there is a different outcome.

QUOTE (SoxAce @ Feb 25, 2010 -> 04:17 PM) Well thats why I put "supposedly" but from what I gather, The Reds were throwing Votto out there just to see what kings ransom they can land. Walt, of course, denied it strongly early on this offseason, but there were rumors (not to mention an inside source of mine, so take it with a grain of salt) that said he did indeed throw him out there. I believe next year he's arb eligible so his salary will jump. I would think they would move him to LF once Alonso is ready, but I'm not sure if the Reds would sub the offense for the defense in Votto since he's bad in LF. (not to mention it baffled me why they threw him out there in the first place, unless they were looking for a stud OF) I dunno what is up with the city and management though. Cinny predident said the financial stuff was "blown out of proportion" but the same thing was said about Detroit too. Never thought Granderson was gonna get dealt, but here we are. Then again.. Cinny signed Chapman for what 50 million, so who knows. Every player is thrown out there during the off-season. It's just that the level of seriousness varies all sorts of different degrees.

QUOTE (Ranger @ Feb 25, 2010 -> 03:15 AM) You're assuming WAR isn't flawed, by the way, so yes, there is plenty of room for debate. You can't just be married to the advanced statistics. You dismiss statistics in favor of your eyes. Every time. Eyes tend to tell a great deal of lies. It's a two way street, you just can't be married to things you think you saw. When it comes down to it, you don't get the whole picture just from visuals, nor can you from stats. It's a very, very in depth combination. Anytime anything other than generic statistics are brought up you insist on letting us know that there are flaws, i get it, you have more than stressed it enough. Advanced statistics are intended to help us get a better understanding of the game, not the opposite. Sabremetrics is one never ending pursuit to benefit the game of baseball. There is lots of forward progress, backwards progress, and forward progress again in the sabremetric community, just like any other field. Very little is definitive in this game. You are a traditional baseball fan, through and through. There is nothing wrong with that, as long as you don't keep coming off as what you say is gold, and everything others think is rubbish. I could be wrong and you have no intention to come off that way, but that is how i interrupt it. For what it's worth, i think you are a damn fine poster who adds another much needed dimension to soxtalk. I have noticed when i agree with you (your posts in general, does not mean i replied), i agree wholeheartedly, and when i don't, it's like we are on completely opposite ends of the spectrum. It's nice to have a level head around here, considering that the ratio is probably somewhere in the 20-1 range. The pessimism just for the sake of being pessimistic is extremely old. You know it's sad when this board is dead during a seven game win streak and absolutely hopping on a five game losing streak. People just love to female dog and moan.

QUOTE (Ranger @ Feb 25, 2010 -> 12:39 AM) The question really isn't whether he was worth his contract or not, but I think it's debatable whether or not he was worth $2.5 mil last year. You could argue the two seasons were comparable, though the greater point is that we're considering his 2009 to be satisfying, while is 2004 was not. We should put the numbers down for a second and remind ourselves that, not only was his offense not good last year, he barely played more than half of his team's games. That's not satisfactory, which was my point. His 2009 was better than his 2004 season by 0.7 wins and he did so in 54 less games. In 2008 and 2009 teams were spending roughly 4.5 million on one win, which means he was more than worth the 2.5 million he received. I do not see room for debate. Also, i was in no way trying to imply what you described as satisfactory.

QUOTE (BigEdWalsh @ Feb 23, 2010 -> 09:52 PM) Even better (well, worse) Bob Buhl went 0 for 70 in 1962 (for the Cubs, hehe). I have mixed feelings about the DH. There's good arguments for it and against it. I do think that both leagues should be the same. Either the NL should use the DH or the AL should drop it. If I HAD to say yay or nay, I'd say nay...get rid of it. Buhl was originally signed by the sox, and later went on to help net the cubs fergie jenkins.

QUOTE (Real @ Feb 24, 2010 -> 11:42 PM) How many more years of Quentin getting drilled before he starts to permanently disable himself? Serious question. You'd think after a while fractures would start to develop I have posted it before i believe, but it's such a cool site it cannot hurt to again, hell it's slow anyway. http://www.plunkeveryone.com/

QUOTE (Ranger @ Feb 24, 2010 -> 09:27 PM) Well, you can through every single players statistics and find at least a game or two that a big hit of theirs gave the team the win or one good play helped preserve a victory. I just want to make sure I get this right: you would be satisfied with the contributions of an individual Sox player that hit .225 with an OBP below .300 over only 90 games as long as his defense was good? Something about that strikes me as odd considering his 2004 season was statistically better, yet I remember vividly many, many Sox fans trying to run him out of town before the '05 season. Then people should have also been satisfied with Juan Uribe's contributions the last couple of Sox seasons, yet it sure didn't sound like they were. I'm assuming that you were also satisfied with Brian Anderson's 2006? I'm not quite certain his 2004 season was better. 2004- His slash line was .239/.299/.418. 16.5 K% 0.42 BB/K .180 ISO .309 wOBA 84 wRC+ 83 OPS+ 19.5% O-Swing% 2009- His slash line was .225/.289/.414. 16.8 K% 0.48 BB/K .189 ISO .305 wOBA 86 wRC+ 83 OPS+ 31.5% O-Swing% =============================================================================== Nothing stands out in his batted ball percentages. Though two things do when it comes to his plate discipline, his 12% increase in O-Swing%, and a 7.4% increase in his O-Contact% in 2009 compared to 2004. You likely already know his defensive metrics for the two years in question, which was pretty drastic, considering the significant amount of difference in games played (54 games). Crede WAR was 1.9 in 2009 compared to his 1.2 WAR in 2004. He was worth his contract. To answer your question, i would take a .225 average, with a sub .300 obp, that is of course if their defense is good enough to make them worth 2-2.5 wins annually. Admittedly, the defensive numbers one would have to produce annually with that sort of offensive production would be rather low. If i were running a team not looking to contend, and for the stop gap type, he could possibly be a terrific pick up. Now if i were a team with a good chance to contend, i would only be looking in his direction if his lack of offense could be made up else where in the line-up, and my team was maybe a bit thin defensively.

QUOTE (WCSox @ Feb 18, 2010 -> 08:06 PM) What, you mean that Pierre is the only player who doesn't put up the exact same numbers every month? Say it ain't so! Pierre put up a .455 OBP in March/Arpil, a .435 OBP in may, and a .413 OBP in August. Those three months accounted for 262 of his 380 at-bats, and that's pretty freaking impressive for a guy who didn't play regularly for much of the season. Some of you people need to do your homework before posting. QUOTE (WCSox @ Feb 18, 2010 -> 08:08 PM) No, I think I'll ignore your elitist rhetoric, incorrect statements, and flawed statistical analysis instead. March/april = 20 at-bats, may = 111 at-bats, august 41 at-bats... in all that is 172... 90 off of your total. You added his may, june, and august at-bat totals together.

My avatar pretty much echoes my thoughts perfectly. But here it is one more time. Now that i think about it again, i am not one to be stingy, as there is plenty to go around.

QUOTE (SouthsideDon48 @ Feb 1, 2010 -> 10:20 PM) I had no idea Walmart sold that stuff, I'm gonna have to try and find it there, cause I bet it'll be cheaper than at GFS. About how much is a can like that? The price doesn't show up on my cell phone, but I'm hoping it's not more than $6 or $7 bucks. Gfs is basically wholesale that is open to the public. We used to go to the gfs on 78th and cicero (we owned a concession trailer for several years) and the cans ranged anywhere from $5.50 to $ 6.50. The price cannot be be beat anywhere, at least that has always been the case. There also is definitely no milk added.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 30, 2010 -> 03:26 PM) Neyer's projections actually look somewhat right in terms of wins. PECTOA is an extremely conservative system... They have been highly accurate prior to last season. But i do expect them to take a continuous hit now that nate silver is not the main man behind the scenes.

Neyer was the most correct analyst in both 2007 and 2008 when it came to predicting win totals. http://vegaswatch.net/2007/09/evaluating-a...redictions.html http://vegaswatch.net/2008/09/evaluating-a...tions-2008.html http://vegaswatch.net/2008/09/evaluating-a...ons-update.html No neyer prediction ... but pecota was terrible last season after 3 out of four extremely good seasons in a row. http://vegaswatch.net/2009/09/evaluating-a...tions-2009.html **************************************************************************************************** **** 2005-2009

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 12:09 AM) Why do you say that? The original was considered one of the greatest American movies for 22 years before the Rudux was released. The redux version simply made and already terrific film, an even better film, for myself anyway. I like both versions, it's just that the redux version is even darker, something i really enjoy. I know i am not the only one to have this thought process about the redux version (that it's better).

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 07:49 PM) Because it was as stupid rule. I think it was some time in the last year or so maybe 2 years, not sure It was in 2006 already now.

Moneyball the movie is in the process of casting at the moment. Bennett miller, the director of capote, is the director.

QUOTE (Yoda @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 11:57 AM) Watched Apocalypse Now last night and forgot how outrageously out of shape Marlon Brando was at this time of his career. Wouldn’t recognize him if it wasn’t for his dark eyes and that entrenched voice of his. The movie itself has a nice plot, but it lags in several sequences which does not lend itself to repeated viewings as perhaps a Full Metal Jacket or Platoon. Was it the redux version? If not, it's the only version.

Jim h being his usual sad self... ooooh he might want to fight me now.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 24, 2010 -> 05:07 AM) How on earth do you manage to function on such little sleep? I don't know. I honestly do not know of a better way to answer your question. I just do. My mom is like me but to a slightly less degree. She sleeps maybe five hours a day, on a good day, and she usually goes to sleep around 9 a.m. She blames her f***ed up sleep on me, which is pretty much as accurate as can be. She always used to stay up until about four or five a.m. (about five years ago now) but then on the other hand she still got up at nine or ten. Oh well. Hopefully some day i will be able to break the insomnia, stranger things have happened.