CaliSoxFanViaSWside

QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 04:11 PM) Except "eyes" don't always agree. Adam Dunn is the perfect example. Some people will just never admit that a hitter that strike out 25-30% of the time can be good no matter what else he does. Advanced stats allow us to have a more empirical way to say that Dunn is, in fact, a good hitter. I can hold whatever position I'd like if all of our eyes are acceptable as measurement. Since people don't like arguing over eyes, we have numbers. And when we have numbers, the best numbers are better. Batting average says Dunn sucks. OBP sometimes suggests that Dunn sucks. Yet, he does not suck. We didn't need advanced stats to see that Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout were great, but WAR told us that Trout was more valuable by quite a measure last year. It also tells us that Miggy is more valuable this year, despite being an absolutely atrocious defender. There will always be arguments over stats providing a players individual value because baseball is a team game. A players value can be diminished or enhanced by what those around him do. Trout leads off with a single steals 2nd in a close game late innings. Oppossing team manger decides to IBB next guy to set up the double play .Maybe the next player hits into a double play, or hits a 3 run HR. So that stolen base could be great or could be bad for his team. The stolen base itself was not bad but it did set up a sequence of events that turned out bad.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 11:09 AM) If WAR isn't created equally, it is a deceiving and incorrect stat. I don't think there is any question 5 years from now, unless it is totally tweaked, statheads will be calling anyone who brings up WAR a fossil. If one run created = one run saved, if the stat was accurate, 2 teams 14 games apart in less than 100 games, shouldn't have the same cummulative WAR. It simply doesn't add up. I just think its impossible to add up one particular stat of individuals and expect to try and apply it to wins and losses of a team because if thats what your looking for it will never happen at least not in any one stat. Traditional stats do a better job of that because you can just look at a pitching stats W's in any given year on a particular teams roster and if it adds up to 100 wins you know that team had a good year. Brian Kenney (MLB network resident saber dude)would hate this since he advocates getting rid of wins and losses of pitchers as a stat. Of course you won't know how good those actual pitchers actually are until you examine more advanced pitching stats. I think I'm just as likely to make an accurate guess at a teams final record by looking at traditional team stats (even if you eliminate pitchers W/L stats and saves) as I would be looking at saber stats. Would be an interesting experiment to take traditional offensive defensive pitching and baserunning stats of a team and pit them against saber stats for the same categories and let fans try and predict the teams record by them.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 08:05 PM) It mostly doesn't -- team WAR is just the sum or individual player WAR. So anything that happens that has to do with how the players interact with one another or how different streaks or sequences of events occur will NOT be reflected. These are the factors that make reality reality and so it cannot be predicted entirely by a mathematical formula. Just by following this conversation , I'd venture to guess most of the Sox WAR is on the pitching side whereas Clevelands is evenly distributed, so any value the Sox have in pitching WAR is negated by lack of hitting WAR . So teams can have even WAR's but a team where it is more evenly distributed between offense and pitching probably has a better record. Is this assumption correct and a better way to explain it than trying to explain how Wins Above Replacement does not translate to actual wins and losses to the layman ?

Sale is a winner !

Fielder does a Kevin James into 3rd.

Got my 2003 All-Star Sox cap with the pinwheels and fireworks patch on it on.

Just for reference sake it was posted here on July 12th http://www.southsidesox.com/2013/7/12/4516...clear-ejections

Dude it's the All Star game in NYC ! Are you going to the game ? This is the time for constant updates !

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 15, 2013 -> 01:46 PM) Garza will be gone by this weekend -- hopefully to someone we don't want to trade with anyway like the Indians. The timing will be perfect for Peavy to come in and make a quality start against the #Barves and look like a SEXY pick-up for all the teams that missed on Garza. Let's just hope he looks good. I really think we can get a good haul for him if he does. I don't expect much from Peavy in his 1st start especially if it's hot outside. Hopefully 5+ innings and 2 or less runs.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jul 15, 2013 -> 07:46 PM) It's definitely a rotation you could hang with if the offense was putting up 4-5-6 runs a night. Which is why I never understand when i see posters use the rebuild word.

Seeing Cespedes' swing makes me wish Frank Thomas would work with Viciedo . Is it just me or does Viciedo's swing seem choppy like he's hacking ? He needs more of an uppercut swing.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 15, 2013 -> 10:47 AM) The sad thing is we heard all last year how Robin needed to move Rios to the 3rd spot instead of Dunn because Rios was the most consistent hitter. Things change from year to year and adjustments and flexibility is the key.

Robin's been kind of inflexible as a manager. He trots out basically the same line up every day . Then if a player gets hot he says I don't want to move him because he's had success in that spot. I know the production as whole hasn't been there and we strand a lot of runners. I think a manager has a lot more to do with outcomes of games than people think, not on strategic decision making but on the line up construction. Group the hot hitters together , play matchup, show some creative thinking. The tried and true lineup hasn't hit and more than likely pretty much any line up wouldn't hit either so why not experiment with it ? Rios hasn't hit all year with RISP but he is always 3rd in the line up and lately he takes the 1st pitch constantly and is always behind 0-1 and often 0-2. De Aza is our 2nd best HR hitter and maybe our best hitter with RISP and only hits lead off. Robin hardly ever pinch hits against AL teams . How many times do we have to see Flowers making outs in the 9th of a close game ? Seems like Robin thinks he's dealing with a bunch of babies who can only hit where he puts them and couldn't hack being moved up or down in the lineup or being PH for.

Good luck Matt . You had some really good years with the Sox and it was appreciated.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 12, 2013 -> 09:07 PM) It's getting harder to imagine him being healthy enough to pitch well and raise his stock before the deadline. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,3112864.story I'm not overly optimistic about Crain coming back before the trade dealine either especially when he's got free agency coming. He'll want to show he's healthy but only when he is throwing with no discomfort and that looks like it will be after the trade dealine passes more and more every day.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jul 12, 2013 -> 07:24 PM) It's almost like they have to do something with Hawkins right now, but what? Can you just pull the plug on his season, send him to Instructional League, and start all over next year? When a player shows a high likelihood of never getting it together ( and I'm not saying Hawkins is in that category) I think you have to tell him he needs to change his whole approach and or technique. Hire a private hitting instructor to work with him trying all kinds of different batting stances, bat positions , crouching , standing up straight and everything in between. Give that instructor some resources to hire amatuer pitchers of different abilities to throw to him if thats possible and/or legal. Work on just making contact with a player with high K rates but a lot of strength. Break him down completely and start over. There's too much invested in Hawkins to care about hiring an instructor for say 50K for the offseason and giving him another 25K for expenses. Tell him every penny of that 25K must be documented with receipts. I'm sure some savvy independent league pitchers would be willing to make a few extra thousand .

Winner !

Can we get Ruf ?

Way to go JR !

Nice 2 out extra base hits to net a run . Up to Reed to hold it.

QUOTE (JoshPR @ Jul 13, 2013 -> 07:19 AM) My point exactly Your point exactly is what? You rather have player's without tools ? Those are called accountants.

Get used to this in the 2nd half once the bullpen is shipped out.

QUOTE (Noonskadoodle @ Jul 5, 2013 -> 06:11 PM) What is Phegleys listed height? He is built like a brick s***house. 5'10"

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Jul 5, 2013 -> 06:28 PM) What a bum He's a journeyman for sure.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 5, 2013 -> 06:26 PM) I don't know if Purcey is much of a prospect, but you have to think he is very nervous making his debut. His debut for the Sox but has spent time in the bigs . Nothing since 2011 though.