It's all risk. Let's not pretend that just because we get "prospects" that they are going to somehow replace what we are giving up. What I see is in all the examples of hitters that do keep hitting into their mid and late 30's they seem to be bigger and stronger guys who primary tool is a big hit tool, while being strong enough to make those hits go for power. The tool that ages the least well is speed, and let's face it, that is nothing that Abreu needs to worry about. The guys I listed in previous posts as having defied those numbers are very similar to Abreu in the type of players that they are. It is also worth noting that while you are posting a league average number, just by a statistical nature, there are outliers to those. I really think Abreu profiles as the type of hitter who will hit into his mid to maybe even late 30's and is the kind of guy that a team should be OK with extending.