beautox

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 12, 2016 -> 04:23 PM) Where are people hearing that Musgrove is a sticking point? where are these hypothetical Astros deals even coming from? Not questioning, just curious (since I was offline most of the weekend). Luhnhow saying he doesn't want to trade away major league assets as he views them as instrumental to their post season run in 17; Bregman and Musgrove.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 12, 2016 -> 10:29 AM) Reed would be worth a gamble in a three of four player package. He entered 2016 as a highly touted prospect but a horrible 48 game stretch at the mlb level has tarnished that quite a bit. Hitting .164 overall and .064 in 17 at bats against lefties is frightening for sure for a guy pegged as a plus hitter. If Musgrove is not in the deal I could see Martes/Tucker/Reed plus one lower level prospect making sense, although Houston might not want to give up on him so quickly If musgrove is really the sticking point an Reed doesn't have a place in their line up I wouldn't be against Martes/Tucker/Whitley/Reed/Stubbs put the screws to them.

Great Job, enjoyed every word of it. Hansen has so much upside, the insight was refreshing.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 12, 2016 -> 08:25 AM) Gonzalez quietly threw a pretty decent 135 innings for the White Sox in 2016 with a very respectable 3.71 FIP By no means is he a part of the future, right now he is penciled in for a rotation spot and him and Melky combined should be able to do a bit better than Gohara and Hernandez I agree Gonzalez was a pleasant surprise putting up 2.7 fWAR last year he has some surplus value but melky is likely being overpaid slightly so unless the sox pay some or most of his salary (which they should do regardless since its dead money on a non contending team) i don't think we're able to land the likes of O'Neill. Gohara and Hernandez would be solid gets, interesting lottery tickets with a lot of upside that are very young and have already made the transition to playing in the states. They both also line up with the sox time line of '19/20

with turner likely going back to the dodgers Frazier's market appears to be the cards, mets and rockies. I doubt the dodgers want to push much further past the 220m that Olney is reporting. Jansen is likely to get an AAV of 15-17mil Robertson + Jones and Lawrie as a throw in to play 2B could go a long way in securing the back end of their pen and not pushing them to much further into the tax, especially if the sox pick up some money on Robertson to bring back an even nicer package.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 11, 2016 -> 09:29 PM) It seems "surplus value" calculators are pretty hard to utilize unless that prospect's in AA or AAA...and, even then, if you were to go back over the last 20-30 years of BA Top 100 lists and see how many of those prospects lived up to their original "surplus value" calculations, it would be WAY OFF if you compared projections and reality. It might give you some type of rough estimation at the time of the trade (who won, who lost the deal, from an immediate/instant reaction standpoint)... I agree I think it gives all the arm chair GMs (myself included) and the media a basic foundation and like I said rankings in general are more art than science. Kopech is a great example BA midseason had in in the 90s but his late season and afl performance moved the needle a ton, while mlb had him ranked in the 30s. Additionally it often takes 4-6 years to see who "won or lost" a deal.

Melky & MiGo to the Mariners for Luiz Gohara & Brayan Hernandez

QUOTE (hi8is @ Dec 11, 2016 -> 05:31 PM) Would people here rather have Pint or Hoffman as a second piece behind Rodgers? I would prefer Pint If the Sox asked for Martes/Tucker/Musgrove and are standing firm going by BA's midseason ranking and TPoP surplus value calculator the sox value Quintana at 97.8m now having said that prospect values and how the sox and other organizations view their value is more of an art and less of a science. A Rodgers/Pint/Tapia package depending on where you view Pint ranges from 99.1m to 112m, its similar if you replace Pint with German Marquez but on the lower end at 98.2. I find it hard to believe if the rockies are getting Q that they'll want to strip their major league ready arms like German/Hoffman/Freeland

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Dec 11, 2016 -> 03:02 PM) I think aside from maybe trade #3, we could get all those deals 2 years from now for Q. I think Rodgers/Pint/Tapia makes the most sense for a number of reasons. Rodgers isn't going to be ready till late '19 at his earliest and Story isn't going anywhere and Nolan Arenado will be around for the majority of Q's time in Colorado additionally they have McMahon as his heir apparent. Pint if he takes a level a year (unlikely in the sox system but still) '21 on a normal path late '19 on a "sox" path. Tapia doesn't have a spot in the outfield even if they trade blackmon, Tapia has a Kevin Pillar / Devon White ceiling. That package is has enough potential tier 1 talent to entice the sox while also being far enough away that the rox don't have to worry about coming back to bite them during their window, while replacing future wins with present. Lastly getting Quintana and moving blackmon likely gets them an additional starter while getting the ability to sign a 1B and move Desmond to the OF and they still maintain their near major league depth in Hoffman, Marquez and Freeland.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Dec 11, 2016 -> 02:13 AM) I do want Severino, but I want a 2-1 deal. Ask for Stevenson + Severino, settle for Severino + Soto. I would be very interested in Severino + Soto. Having Severino's glove would go a long way with a young staff and additionally allowing the sox to bring along Collins behind the dish slowly.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 10, 2016 -> 11:27 PM) I think Jansen signing with the Dodgers and Turner signing elsewhere works out best for the Sox. Robertson can block a deal to LAD, but not MIA. If the Dodgers are desperate for Frazier and the Marlins desperate for Robertson, Hahn could squeeze a nice return out of both teams. Jones and Frazier to the dodger for Bellinger, Barnes and Lux. Robertson for Braxton garrett and Tyler kolek just looking over the marlins system man its barely a tick above the angels..wow

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 10, 2016 -> 11:17 PM) After thinking more about it, I really like the Rockies offer based on Rogers headlining the package. That package is a more reasonable offer than the one proposed about Pitt. A future indie!d of Moncada, Anderson and Rogers sounds good to me. Comp wise provided that trade happens and they all hit, it would be as if we had Ryan Zimmerman (Rodgers), David Wright (Moncada) & Starling Marte (Anderson) in our infield and that would be crazy, certainly something to dream on, but here is a dose of reality. Having said that the defense would be insane.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 10, 2016 -> 04:52 PM) I love that Rockies offer. All players are far enough off that their risk is legitimate for Rockies to consider but talent so huge it's compelling for white sox. Thats my take on it as well, it pushes this rebuild as a dark horse for '19 more so than '18, but thats fine if you're getting another TOR arm in Pint and a prospect on that same caliber as Swanson and Bregman but further off while still getting a major league piece you can stash at AAA for most of '17 in Tapia to see what if anything Tilson/Engel and Liriano are and if Avi has any chance at redemption.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 10, 2016 -> 04:47 PM) Pint and Beer on a future Sox roster would be pretty hysterical haha Pint, Beer & Burger

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Dec 10, 2016 -> 01:59 PM) Saw someone on Twitter saying that Buster Olney said that he could see the Rockies offer Rodgers/Tapia/Pint for Q and the Pirates offer Glasnow/Meadows/Bell or Newman. I'd take either.... The Rodgers/Pint/Tapia deal makes a ton of sense for the rox. Their infield isn't going anywhere with Story at SS and Arenado at 3B till he his FA in '19, Pint hasn't reached A and Tapia doesn't have a place in that outfield especially with them signing desmond. Rodgers could fit the bill for 3B of the future or replace TA or Yoan if they fail to make adjustments and flame out. Pint has a TOR arm but hasn't made it to A ball yet even after being the #4 pick overall last year and Tapia if everything breaks right you could be looking at a Kevin Pillar / Devon White type of player in CF. I like the alleged Pirates offer but that seems steep even after seeing what Sale and Eaton got, i could see one of Glasnow or Meadows + Bell or Newman + Mitch Keller. Either package and I would be happy.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 10, 2016 -> 10:40 AM) The Sox will definitely make a bunch more moves between now and opening day. I'm confident that Quintana, Robertson, Frazier, & Jennings will all be dealt in the next month. I'm far less certain on Jones, Melky, & Gonzalez. I think the price for Jones will be sky high and they might feel that making him our closer in 2017 will help us realize that value. I don't see there being a huge market for Melky right now and he might be better served as a trade deadline chip. And assuming Quintana goes, I could see them less inclined to move Gonzalez right away. The one guy I don't think gets moved this offseason is Abreu. His value would increase significantly if he put up 2H 2016 numbers in 1H 2017. So overall, I see us making another four or five trades between now and opening day. I would prefer the sox sell off Q and Gonzalez, jones and robertson and just tank the season for the #1 pick in 18 in Seth Beer and also afford them the ability to load up on vets to flip at the deadline and keep all the young arms service time down. Something like the following below Rodon* Shields Holland* Covey Anderson* In a perfect world Shields regains his form and is traded along with a healthy Holland and Anderson and Covey doesn't get destroyed at the major league level, while Fulmer, Giolito and Lopez trickle in to replace them after the trade deadline or DFA.

QUOTE (Ro Da Don @ Dec 10, 2016 -> 12:04 PM) 3. Musgrove is a #5. QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 10, 2016 -> 12:10 PM) You seriously can never have too much pitching. Pitching is also extremely expensive in free agency. Not all of our prospects will pan out, plus they can be used to trade for bats when the time is right Musgrove has the potential to be a very solid #3 or 4 starter with great control. He does pose some injury risk though. Clearly Bregman is not in the deal, but with that being the case the Astros can't be overly picky about prospects in order to get a deal done for Q I do think Musgrove might be who they do not want to give up in that package I think Musgrove has the stuff and ability to profile like John Lackey or our very own James Shields. Low 90s fastball with heavy sink a solid slider and good but developing change. He has a K/9 north of 7.5 nearly 8 and BB/9 of 2.3.

If the astros are worried about back end depth thats understandable so maybe do something like this: Q and Gonzalez for Martes/Tucker/Musgrove/Hernandez/Stubbs. Astros get a TOR ace, and a #5 that just put up over 2.5WAR and is super cheap, sox get two major league pieces that they'll likely stash at AAA to see what Avi/Tilson/Engel can do for half a season and a solid looking catcher in Stubbs.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 10, 2016 -> 11:45 AM) That is a fair asking price in my opinion. Quintana is a very valuable pitcher I would not accept less than Musgrove or Reed, Martes and Tucker for Q I agree, I wonder what i would take for Stubbs and Hernandez though.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Dec 10, 2016 -> 11:13 AM) The lack of catching prospects in all these packages makes me slightly concerned they aren't placing a ton of value on the position Thats fair but maybe they truly feel Collins is the catcher of the future and just got wore down in the AFL, additionally they might feel that frazier and robertson/jones trade partners match up at the near major league level so its better to leverage Q for higher ceiling talent. Cards could be in on Frazier, they've got Carson Kelly Dodgers could be in on all of Frazier, Robertson & Jones they've got Austin Barnes Red Sox could be in on Robertson & Jones they've still got Swihart marked as 3rd string catcher Nats could be in on Robertson & Jones and they've got Severino.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 9, 2016 -> 10:34 AM) Fangraphs ripped him. We will see what happens. Anderson had an incredible BABIP, but someone compared him to Marte, and he has similar BABIP for his career. This guy just hasn't played much, and has never been on the same level for long. I don't think there is any conclusion that can be drawn until we see what he does. He could be a guy who makes major adjustments, strikes out less and walks more, or he could be a guy with a .268 OBP in July 2017. He looked a lot better to me than expected, and the ball does jump off his bat. I'm sure there are tons of guys who have become pretty good hitters who fangraphs would have written off as someone with Anderson's experience. That was me, I did a deep dive on him and I think if you look at both their minor and major league career you're looking at a similar hitting profile to Marte; that would be great because if that is his hitting profile while playing a + defensive shortstop you're looking at a 4-6 win player. Tim is going to be fine people like to point to his walk rate going up in the second half and they should but while doing that his wRC+ went down as well as his power, he wasn't selling out to crush it and being more selective at the plate, his development will not be linear and he has shown a propensity to get comfortable at every level and then be pushed by this org, well there is no where for him to go so i expect to see him get really comfortable with the speed of the major league game. The thought of a 10-12 win middle infield should get people excited between Tim and Yoan and if Tim delivers this year like I personally believe he will I would love for the org to offer up a deal similar to Altuve to Marte $30m+ / 6 Years + 2 options.

this is the of seth that i'm trying to embed

QUOTE (Ro Da Don @ Dec 8, 2016 -> 11:44 PM) Definitely Martes/Tucker/Reed if they move off the untouchable crap on Martes and Tucker. No deal if they don't get off it. That projection sounds about right. That is incredibly light of a return. Quintana has about 128m in surplus value. Bregman even as the #1 top prospect in the game is only worth about 73.5 in surplus value. If Houston doesn't want to include him then tell them to look forward to going out in the first round in October. Top prospect hitters are worth significantly more than their pitching counter parts. Quintana is worth just going by the point of pittsburgh value Bregman - 73.5, Tucker - 38.2, Paulino - 16.5 = 128.2 compare that to say a rockies package of Rodgers - 73.5, Pint - 29.8 & Tapia - 22.4 = 125.7 and you possibly get a throw in as well like Freeland.

I really like Jake Burger, JJ Schwarz and Brendan McKay. I think it would be awesome to draft Jake Burger in '17 and Seth Beer in '18 the promos write themselves. I've read a lazy comp of burger to Bryant so we'll see. Anyone got a hot take on Beer?

QUOTE (QuickJones81 @ Dec 8, 2016 -> 06:43 PM) I personally would still rather have Moncada, but lets assume for the sake of argument you are correct and Bregman is the better prospect. Is the drop in value from Sale to Quintana equal to the drop in value from Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz to just Bregman? I think you guys are getting sucked in to the psychological games the Astros are trying to play to get an advantage in the deal. The deal should be based on value, not desperation brought on by chasing the supposedly unattainable. Playing hard to get may make you want the girl more, but it doesn't make her hotter. I agree, If bregman isn't on the table the rockies need a TOR starter and have a system that lines up with our timeline from both a talent and positional aspect; Rodgers/Pint/Tapia & Freeland/Murphy fits the sox like a glove.