beautox

Beautox’s Offseason Plan Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR): Todd Frazier, $13.5M - Tender Brett Lawrie, $5.1M - Tender Avisail Garcia, $3.5M - Non-Tender Miguel Gonzalez, $2.6M - Tender Dan Jennings, $1.2M - Tender J.B. Shuck, $1M - Non-Tender Jake Petricka, $900K - Tender Zach Putnam, $900K - Tender Daniel Webb, $600K - Non-Tender Explain the toughest calls if necessary: Pretty straight forward across the board Contract options (pick up or buy out) Matt Albers: $3M for 2017 or a $250,000 buyout - Buyout Impending free agents (re-sign, let go or qualifying offer) Austin Jackson: Made $5 million in 2016. - Let Go Alex Avila: Made $2.5 million in 2016. - Let Go Justin Morneau: Made $1 million in 2016, although he signed during the season. - Re-Sign for 2.5 million. Free agents Sign a number of project pitchers like CJ Wilson, Jarrod Parker, Doug Fister and others to suppress the future rotation’s arbitration eligibility. Sign someone like Mark Teixeira as a nice veteran presence and possible player to be flipped at the deadline in a similar fashion as Carlos Beltran last deadline. Trade I'll be using The Point of Pittsburgh as a soft guide to surplus value of prospects for this exercise. Chris Sale to Boston for OF Andrew Benintendi, 3B Rafael Devers, LHP Jason Groome & C/LF Blake Swihart. Sales surplus value is near 150 million and going by the point of Pittsburgh's mlb prospect surplus values, this deal on Boston’s end comes in around 165 million while not taking into account Swihart’s value and the premium placed on the free agent market since it is a seller’s market this offseason. Jose Quintana to Houston for SS/3B/2B Alex Bregman, RHP Francis Martes, RHP David Paulino & OF Teoscar Hernandez. It has been said this offseason Houston is willing to move Bregman for a top of the line starter and Quintana fits the bill. Jose’s surplus value comes in right around 130m, this package without factoring in Hernandez’s value comes in at about 120 so its a bit light in comparison to the Sale package so there could be an additional piece added. Jose Abreu to Texas for LHP Yohander Mendez, 3B/1B/LF Joey Gallo, OF Leody Taveras. The rangers have holes with their starting pitching, first base and center field, this trade was a bit of a challenge to properly value. I see Aberu’s value being somewhere near 40 million while Joey Gallo’s value continues to plummet in a similar fashion to Mike Olt. Yohander looks to be a mid to back of the rotation starter and Taveras offers a lot of upside but will take a bit of time to develop in the minors. Todd Frazier, Nate Jones & Brett Lawrie to Los Angeles for 1B/OF Cody Bellinger, 2B/C Austin Barnes & SS Gavin Lux. I think the dodgers pass on re-signing Turner and Utley and will need an additional arm out of the pen to back up Jansen or Chapman or whomever they sign this offseason. Bellinger doesn’t have a path in LA for the foreseeable future with Adrian locked up. Barnes hasn’t delivered on any of his promise yet and will be 27 on opening day and Lux is a prospect the white sox heavily scouted during the ‘16 draft. Frazier offers both surplus value and a likely draft pick after ‘17. Jones is an asset that should provide anywhere from 28-40m in surplus value alone during the life of his contract and Lawrie gives them a second basemen with youth and some upside with a slim chance of getting a draft pick in ‘17. If the dodgers go this route and QO Turner and Jansen while signing Chapman and trading for Frazier that affords them two additional draft picks in the ‘17 draft. David Robertson to San Francisco for OF Bryan Reynolds and LHP Steven Okert. Even with his knee being cleaned out before the start of the season relief pitching will be at a premium after the world series demonstrations of Chicago and Cleveland. Robertson has a little bit of surplus value and is likely being paid nearly what he is worth. Reynolds was the Giants first round draft pick from vanderbilt and a switch hitter another prospect that would be in the mold of the direction of "baseball players" as seen by drafting Collins, Fisher and Call. Okert looks to be a middle reliever that can handle both righties and lefties Melky Cabrera and Miguel Gonzalez to Toronto for RHP Sean Reid-Foley and LHP Angel Perdomo. Depending on what you think 1 WAR will cost this offseason this is a very close and "fair" trade; Reid-Foley has a surplus value of 15.6m and Gonzalez’s value will likely be around 14M. There is no way the jays QO Saunders for 17.2m, Melky is likely being paid what he will produce for ‘17 and there is a slim chance they could extend him a QO next year, same applies for Gonzalez. There is familiarity with Melky within the organization and Gonzalez has had success in the East previously with the O’s. Reid-Foley is a classic white sox pitching target - "Reid-Foley's delivery and arm action may not be picturesque, but he has the physical strength and athleticism to repeat both." Perdomo is a solid looking lottery ticket, both of these arms haven’t moved beyond high A. Summary The only pieces of the current 25 man roster that will likely be around for the next White Sox window are Carlos Rodon, Adam Eaton and Tim Anderson, by having a fire sale in this fashion the farm system now has waves of talent to infuse as not all prospects will pan out. The remaining pen arms that are solid: Petricka, Putman and Jennings can be moved at the deadline with the place holding rotation members and veteran bats provided they perform, if not they served their purpose of mentoring the future core while ideally getting an additional year of control out of them by keeping them down on the farm. This team will likely have a top 5 draft pick in ‘18 and a top 10 pick in ‘19. Here is what the organization’s depth chart would like at the start of ‘17 Here is what the 25 man roster would look like going into mid ‘18

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 30, 2016 -> 10:54 AM) I meant in the sense he's now a spare part, like Shaw, Rusney Castillo and Holt. They still have to figure out a place for Moncada to play, and they probably don't want to start him as DH when he has so many (unrefined) physical tools. Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez have to fit as well. And they're already talking about Bautista or Encarnacion coming on board at DH. Moncada probably will end up at 3b or a corner of spot if Benitendi's dealt. His best position might be 2b, but Pedroia blocks him there for now. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 30, 2016 -> 10:56 AM) An impossible thought from last night... Say the Cubs do get knocked out by the Indians. If the Cubs come to the White Sox with a player package starting around Kyle Schwarber, could a deal get done? What would it take to get a deal done? I agree he is a lottery ticket and no longer a part of bostons future. Boston needed a back stop to step in seamlessly and that wasn't going to happen with Swihart in a new organization like Chicago's he could get a nice long look while Collins develops; worse case he is a bust, best case he can stick behind the dish, median we have a nice bat that can play emergency catcher while playing LF/1B. I'm not against trading with the Cubs, I'm all for what will bring about the fastest change to this organization with impact talent and Schwarber and Baez are def that.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 29, 2016 -> 10:38 AM) They'd probably have the choice of just one of Kopech or Groome...your package seems to be a bit too much for the Red Sox to give up. Perhaps they try to throw in Shaw/Holt instead of a prospect. This offseason will be interesting because its a sellers market and the premium that was applied during the deadline should be even more pronounced when a 36 year old Rich Hill is the best arm followed by Nova and Hellickson. Chris's surplus value per fangraphs trade deadline article is somewhere around 150mil and thats not taking into account a premium for the seller's market. If you go by this article you get a good understanding of what "fair value" is for top 100 prospects. a package of Benintendi, Devers, Groome & Swihart would likely be "fair". Benintendi - 73.5m Devers - 62m Groome - 29.8m Swihart - ?? Sox get what many considered the #1 arm in last years draft that has #1 ceiling. 2 Major league ready pieces up the middle in Benintendi and Swihart all though Benintendi is likely better suited in left field and swihart may just be a LF/1B/DH a rebuilding team can afford to put them in center field and catcher and a high upside bat in Devers, that may or may not stick at 3B.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 19, 2016 -> 01:57 PM) Plus Dombrowski has a history of selling to get what he wants. Yes, Even though Maybin and Miller didn't quite work out for the Marlins doesn't prove they weren't talented pieces to be given up for Miggy.

I personally feel Dombrowski and soon to be Wren don't have the same investment and attachment to Moncada as their departing FO, so after his lack luster and rushed debut I think Moncada and Benintendi are on the table for Sale. Hahn's asking price was allegedly Betts++.

With how thin the market on starting pitching is let alone impact starting pitching the white sox should cash in. Rich Hill is the best option of the market this year. If Boston wants Sale then they'll have to pony up and JBJr shouldn't even be in the conversation he'll be 27 on opening day and is about to be very expensive due to his super 2 status, he'll have 4 ARB years. I would expect a package around Chris to look like this: LF/CF Andrew Benintendi, 2B Yoan Moncada, C/OF Blake Swihart, LHP Jason Groome (who is eligible to be traded after the world series) and RHRP Trey Ball. If Sale is moved there is no reason not to move on everyone except Anderson, Rodon & possibly Eaton, as he could be a part of the next divisional title, due to his age and contract.

QUOTE (flavum @ Aug 16, 2016 -> 09:41 PM) I have to say, I'm optimistic about this year's draft choices. Some exciting talent that may actually be something. Here is hoping it can rival the '11 draft of the red sox Barnes Swihart Owens Bradley Betts Noe Ramirez Shaw thats a hell of a draft class.

For New York to rebuild their farm system at the deadline only to flip it would be such a yankee thing. I want to believe

Miguel Gonzalez & Dan Jennings to the Blue Jays for Sean Reid-Foley & Rowdy Tellez. Jays need pitching. Gonzalez has a lot of familarity with the east and an additional year of control left and they would like an additional left hander out of the pen. Foley is a top 100 prospect that projects to be middle of the rotation and Tellez is similar to Vogelbach where he his playing of first base leaves a lot to be desired but he can mash.

QUOTE (bschmaranz @ Jul 24, 2016 -> 12:49 PM) I don't get why we would deal one and not the other. Wouldn't moving both make more sense? Exactly, Q would likely be the one to remain if any because he has one more year of control, but if the sox are going to stop the half measures they should move everyone sans Abreu (down year unless he picks it up these next 9 days) and Eaton locked up with options till '21 unless they're blown away. Eaton is on pace for 4.5WAR and i could see him being a fit with the Astros and bringing back an impressive haul as well.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jul 24, 2016 -> 11:23 AM) Would be insane to make 2 of those deals moving Sale and Q. I agree, I think Q's extra year of control is equal to sale's perceived dominance, and if both get moved the packages will rival one another. The question becomes do you move Eaton and Abreu as well or can they anchor your future core with Collins and Anderson. Eaton will be 29/30 if they sell off and we compete in 2 to 3 years Abreu will be 31/32.

If Sale gets traded I would prefer it be to the red sox. It would have to be a blockbuster something like: Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi, Michael Kopech, Blake Swihart & Trey Ball. Thats one top 5 prospect, 1 top 20 prospect, 1 top 100 prospect a major league lotto ticket with questions if he can stick behind the dish and a live arm that hasnt lived up to his draft stock in the minors.

QUOTE (PolishPrince34 @ Jul 23, 2016 -> 09:19 AM) I feel their only 3 contender teams that can pull off a trade for Sale that carry the offense talent we need to bring to the organization: Red Sox, Rangers, and Cubs. Houston can also be included, but I'm only sold on Bergman with Houston organization. I can't see the Sox making a major trade with the Cubs this this year or even in the future. Dodgers have the depth to get involved, but don't have the upper echlon hitters that we need to upgrade our offense. It really leaves us with the Red Sox and Rangers. Starting point: Red Sox: Moncado, Benintedi, Devers, Kopech, PTBL: Groome for Sale and Robertson Rangers: Profar, Gallo, Brinson, Ortiz, Tavarez, De Leon for Sale If Cubs get involved: Schwarber, Baez, Jimenez, Torres, Happ for Sale. You have to really hurt the Cubs if your trading a Chris Sale to them. You can't trade Groome as a PTBNL any more because of the Trea Turner rule, if you wanted Groome the deal would have to be made past the world seires.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 10:07 AM) Trade both if you trade one. Q for a King's Ransom Sale for an Emperor's Ransom I agree with this post. If you trade Sale or Q you trade everyone on the 25 man roster not named Anderson, Rodon & Fulmer and you look to contend in 3 years.

If Anderson keeps it up I would love to see the Sox lock him up sometime before the start of '18.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jun 30, 2016 -> 06:03 AM) Another multi hit game. Anderson will be at .300 soon until pitchers figure out not to bother even throwing the kid a strike. Pretty soon will be seeing what Boshers of the Twins did to him in the 8 th inning. Threw all balls and Anderren swung at 3 of them and K'ed. None of the pitches were even particularly close to a strike. Am I the only one that thinks that Tim's major league comp isn't Brandon Phillips but Starling Marte? check out their similarites below I think its great Tim has found success early with his defnese and hit tool at the major league level often that takes him a bit of time to get comfortable before he excels. I don't believe he will continue to strike out at 30% of the time while walking a mere 1% i could see him getting back to his 4BB%/20K% in the not too distant future. The sox might have something very special on their hands with Tim Anderson.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Jun 27, 2016 -> 12:03 AM) I am excited about Michalczewski as a prospect. He is up to .250 average in AA as a 21 year old. In 2/3 years we could have our next 3B, hopefully he continues to trend upwards The 28%K rate is concerning but the fact that he is so young for that level and a switch hitter are very encouraging signs. Power is always the last tool to develop and the fact that he is over a .400 slugging is impressive considering he is at Birmingham.

I'm not surprised at Sinn Fein calling for a referendum for a united Ireland; a united Ireland in my life time would be something to behold; There has also been a run on RI passports and it will become even more pronounced now as NI's want to remain in the EU.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jun 21, 2016 -> 08:47 PM) A bunch of Boston fans I saw talking online seemed to agree on Sale for Moncada and Espinoza Just do it after the WS when Groome becomes available. Moncada, Benintendi, Espinoza, Groome, Swihart

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Jun 20, 2016 -> 04:23 PM) If you're doing a rebuild, who's untouchable/who are you holding on to? I would say that Rodon, Anderson, and my current prospects are all untouchable going forward. You? Rodon & Anderson. With Carlos you've got 5 more years of control and 6 for Tim.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 20, 2016 -> 04:57 PM) Sox are in better shape than the Padres, at least, with Q, EAton, Sale and Abreu. I agree, sox are in a much better position provided the whole front office and pro scouting goes and they move their assets. If & when that happens they would be well served paying the majority of the contracts they move for better returns since its dead money and they won't be a player in free agency in the short term. A sox rebuild isn't with out its own set of issues but at least its a direction instead of what we've witnessed during the Hahn era, and they could get back to contention in a short period of time based off the haul Sale, Quintana, Eaton & Abreu should provide.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jun 20, 2016 -> 11:49 AM) The player we would hope to get is compared to Brett Gardner and that's exciting? Brett Gardner is a hell of player, in his first 6 non injured seasons he was worth 21.3WAR. I would gladly take that out of center field. So yeah I think thats exciting.

QUOTE (bjm676 @ Jun 20, 2016 -> 10:42 AM) They won't end up as bad as the Twins (or can they?) I see them ending up with #7 or #8 pick. I agree I don't see them completely bottoming out but I think another top 10 protected pick is more than likely. I too see 7/8 as our range.

Where there was once a #RoadToRodon, now there is only #KendAllHope. Current Reverse order standings for the '17 draft 1 Minnesota Twins 2 Atlanta Braves 3 Cincinnati Reds 4 Oakland Athletics 5 San Diego Padres 6 Philadelphia Phillies 7 Milwaukee Brewers 8 Los Angeles Angels 9 Arizona Diamondbacks 10 Tampa Bay Rays 11 Colorado Rockies 12 Chicago White Sox Jeren Kendall appears to be one of the stand out college players in next years draft, often being compared to Brett Gardner. Here are some hot takes on next years draft class. Bleacher Report SI Baseball America MLB

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jun 20, 2016 -> 01:17 AM) If Sales being traded I want Giolito and Turner from Washington as a starting point. If we're talking Boston, I want their top three in Moncada, Devers, and Benintendi -- plus two more lower level SP prospects. Sales trade value and his contract should bring an unprecedented return. I agree he is under control for the next three years and is the nearest thing to Kershaw and only going to make 38m from 17-19. His return should be unprecedented.