Dick Allen

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 15, 2015 -> 02:19 PM) How long does he have to be this bad before we use that term? 4 months? 6? How much money would you like to put on him being worth 4+ fWAR over his full contract, which would be a significant overpay for that production level? As long as there is no big DL stint, I'd put a lot of money on that. Of course, your previous posts suggest he will never even be replacement level again.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 15, 2015 -> 02:10 PM) And now he has the worst ISO in all of baseball. From 80th place last year in all of baseball to dead last. He has hit into a lot of bad luck, and has been bad when not doing that. It happens. To think he has nothing left and the numbers he has now is basically his ceiling is something the people certain of this will never actually put money on.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 15, 2015 -> 12:36 PM) Here's the problem with that statement...where exactly are we going to get position players otherwise? We're regularly drafting pitchers at the top of our draft. We traded away position players to get a pitcher this year. When we sign position players we are spending high dollar amounts to get guys towards the end of their career. We keep saying "draft and develop pitching and trade it for hitting". Don't we actually have to do that at some point? Put it this way..."Pitching is the name of the game". The White Sox have the lowest offensive WAR in MLB over the last 10 years and are right at the top in pitching fWAR (3rd). That has translated to a below .500 record. Pitching is important but it can't be the only part of the game. We aren't winning by signing veterans to plug holes and developing no offensive talent despite our regularly great pitching. So the pitching has been great 2013,2014, and 2015? 2015 13th, 2014 13th, 2013 9th. I would venture to guess the pitching was awful in 2007 as well, 12th out of 14. Those are the years the team was totally dreadful, which accounts for the below .500 record since winning the WS. People don't like trading prospects for hitters because too many people think guys like Montas will be stars, when, in reality, the odds are still against him. I'd hang on to Q. Trade Montas and Danish for hitters. If they are thought of anywhere near where some have placed them on this site, there should be plenty of offense coming back. That, and some bounce back from guys who have struggled. I am not talking Tyler Flowers. I think he is what he is, but realistically, Melky is a better offensive player. Eaton is a better offensive player. So is Alexei. Sanchez can't be as bad as he's been. Abreu should do better. LaRoche should hit some more home runs. I'm as sick of watching 1 or 2 runs scored as much as anyone. But this team will hit better. Whether that is this week, next month, in August or next season, they are better than they have shown.

If the White Sox did what some want here, a total rebuild, and not be competitive for 3 or 4 seasons, then you do trade Sale to the highest bidder, and Abreu as well. People would then be very happy with the farm system rankings, but the odds are slim that when it's all over, the package you receive is better than what you gave up. Toronto has the best cumulative WAR in baseball. The White Sox the worst. 3 games ago, they were about a half game apart in the standings. So judging a trade by cumulative WAR would seem silly. The Sox trading a pitcher who has an excellent chance of winning if the offense scores 3 runs, just doesn't make sense. You aren't going to have an offense 2 or 3 runs better a game from what you get from Chris Sale. The guys they have are going to have to hit. I am not holding out hope much offense is coming from the system for at least a couple of years, so they are going to have to get lucky. It would be interesting to see what it would have taken to get Donaldson and Cervelli this past offseason, but even if they had those guys, would they really be 4 or 5 games better than they are right now?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 15, 2015 -> 09:34 AM) So obviously there's a huge statistical formula differentiation from dWAR, fWAR and whatever ESPN is using. Tell me in your own words why Fangraphs has a better number....something besides, "but it's from Fangraphs so it must be right." Because obviously if one system or another's proven to be BETTER and more accurate, then everyone would have a vested interested in adopting or improving it. It has already happened with fielding ratings going from UZR to Range Factor to Net Fielding Wins to Defensive Runs Saved in the span of less than 5 years. You are the one using ESPN. So maybe we should know why those are gospel to you and not fangraphs. The fWAR for whatever reason, is considered by the saber community more accurate. So why don't you tell us in your own words why it is not. The fact is, these numbers are very, very different, especially when you consider we aren't even halfway done with the season. So, IMO, there probably is some inaccuracy in both, especially when they are giving you major credit for defense. Those numbers have always been out of whack, and it is well documented. I read an article a couple of years ago which basically stated in a few years people will laugh at how defense was being valued.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 15, 2015 -> 09:23 AM) http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/pos.../qualified/true You're only off by one full point in your WAR numbers on Betts. Not a big deal. Statistics. Check fangraphs. Then pop off. Also, 1.8 vs. 1.0 isn't one full point.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 15, 2015 -> 09:15 AM) You just made the case we've already made a terrible trade for Jeff Samardzija...and it will only get worse in the coming years. At any rate, Boston isn't going to trade either Betts or Bogaerts. No I didn't. We all know Josh Phegley can't keep this up. And the great Marcus Semien is fading fast while still "holding his own" at SS with only 22 errors.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 15, 2015 -> 09:01 AM) I'm talking about his defense, mostly. His offense has been erratic, sure. Look at the WAR ratings. He'll start to jump out soon enough. http://espn.go.com/mlb/war/leaders/_/type/...nsive/year/2015 He's Top 20 in the majors defensively among all players. Teams are going to pay J. Heyward $100+ million for less offense and a corner instead of CF spot. Same with Alex Gordon. Betts is going to be a very valuable player for them going forward. Not to mention his pittance of a salary compared to Heyward/Gordon, etc. If we're going to laugh or scoff at CFers who put up an OPS around 700 while playing close to elite defense, we might as well give up trying to compete in the new era of baseball because we're going to continue to be terrible offensively AND defensively....at the very worst, if you're not going to score, you should have elite defense and pitching (both starting and relieving) in order to field a competitive team. Betts is a 1.0 WAR player right now. So is Josh Phegley. Bogaerts is a 1.4, 7th in baseball for SS and he is 22.

The only reason a team would trade Sale was he was going to be ultra expensive and become a free agent fairly soon. Trading him now to fill in holes would be about the dumbest thing Rick Hahn could do.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Jun 12, 2015 -> 11:50 AM) Friday July 3 is a company holiday for me but I'm thinking of taking the 2nd off too. Where is your fire? Where is your passion? You might be a nice guy, but I really wonder if you are up to being a poster on a message board.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 12, 2015 -> 10:56 AM) For anyone who listens to games, apparently they are picking up on the Swirsky thing of reading people's tweeted questions. Darrin Jackson ‏@DJWhiteSox 8m8 minutes ago Every game we will try to respond to some of your tweets in the middle of the game. They used to do it through emails on the TV side, but it has been many years. I think it's a good idea.

Hopefully keep the team in the game Danks shows up tonight. Even when Danks was at his peak, when he was bad, he was really bad. He just is bad more often these days.

The haters should be comforted in knowing that when Robin gets back from this "vacation", he will only have 2 days the next 4 weeks he won't be required to work. Slacker.

I don't like KW, but his story with Sale has been the same since it happened. There is no hindsight here. Sale could have flopped, could have broken down injured, then KW would have been full of hot air, as he usually is, but this time, spot on.

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 01:12 PM) Hypothetically, if Sale retired today, would his number be retired by the Sox? No way.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 12:28 PM) For those who haven't read this, there is a ton of high praise from people like Randy Johnson, Jerry DiPoto, and Don Cooper who called him the best pitcher he has everhad. I'll be seeing the Big Unit tomorrow night at the Rush show. He is their Joe Photo. And before he really took off and was still sort of struggling with Seattle, Randy Johnson almost became a White Sox. The trade was so close, they had a uniform for him hanging in their clubhouse.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 12:14 PM) Because his number isn't retired...since they didn't have numbers...people tend to forget one of the greatest pitchers of all-time pitched for the Sox. It is retired in a way. No one will ever go numberless again.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 10:31 AM) It would be different if the Sox were the only ones who did it. Heck he wasn't even the only owners kid drafted yesterday. That isn't even getting into all of the coaches kids drafted, etc. After the White Sox selected Carey Schueler, they actually drafted 3 guys who played in the major leagues, including Placido Polonco who put up over a 41 WAR for his career. He didn't sign.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 10:34 AM) Now you're going back from a 3-2 count to a general plate appearance. This is pointless. Either way, my original point in the thread was that we should generally stop running with Avi. It's way less stupid to do it in that situation than it was to do it in the 3-1 count his prior caught stealing, granted. The first time he ran, it was 2-1 when he ran. The pitch he ran on was a ball to make it 3-1.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 10:22 AM) Are you for real? It's 24% chance of a positive, 27% chance of a negative and 49% chance of a neutral. And that's without considering infield liners, which extends the gap even further. It's net negative. And even with your numbers, 73 is much higher than 27 and Avi is still 50/50 into second. The way this team has been bouncing into DPs, they are trying to do something about it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. With a runner on 1st and less than 2 out in his career, Soto has 540 plate appearances and has grounded into a DP 69 times. And even on a strikeout Avi is 50/50 into second.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 10:02 AM) I'll reply here since the thread you made the comment in is closed. I am not wrong. He may have a .497 OBP, but that's mostly down to walks. In a 3-2 count, he gets hits 14% of the time. He puts the ball in play for outs a further 24% of the time. Of this, let's presume he hits his career average 40% grounders. That means he hits 10% grounders. He strikes out 27% of the time. So that's 24% chance of a ground ball or hit, where running is advantageous, 27% chance of a strikeout, where it's disadvantageous, with the rest being walks or fly outs (neutral) or infield liners (disadvantageous). I'm right, you're wrong. And that's purely assuming an average runner, whereas this whole thing started because I stated that Avi was below average. There is a far greater chance of a positive or neutral result than negative.

QUOTE (harkness @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 09:18 AM) I have never seen this before. I really don't care if Ventura misses... it's nice that the Sox organization isn't being facist to its manager. Just going to be honest this and last year missing games for graduations.... Can someone give me a similar example? I can't think of one. Cooper missed time earlier this season for I believe the same thing. As far as players, MLB does now have a Paternity Leave policy, which covers 72 hours. But in the grand scheme of things, Robin's #1 job is being a dad, not making out the White Sox line up, and it's pretty likely he would have been back Sunday if it wasn't a coast to coast, west to east, day game. It's nice that the organization understands this as well.

Since being 8-14, they have played 4 over .500 without playing well. Rodon in the rotation helps. Sale, IMO, getting up to speed after missing spring training helps. Q is been much better lately. Get Samardjiza going, some guys starting to hit better, and who knows what happens. As great as everyone wants to make out the AL Central, each team has some major flaws. The fact that the Sox probably have a much better record than they should I find encouraging. They have to regress to the mean which would mean some guys are really going to be playing pretty well soon. There is no question in my mind Melky will be much better. Eaton will be much better. Alexei will be much better. Abreu will be much better. To me the key is Samardjiza. If he starts pitching like they thought he would when acquired, it is going to be hard to beat this team. That would be 4 top guys. It is so funny how little respect Q gets. The advanced numbers say for the past 3 1/2 seasons, he's been just as good as Jon Lester. Yet he makes more than $100 million less, and is younger.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 10:15 PM) I said adjustments can be made but I'm still right. You said the chance of a groundball/hit was higher than a K. I believe I have demonstrated that not to be true. As if to prove it, Soto just came up with a runner at first, looked at a strike, swung at a strike and looked at 4 straight balls. He just doesn't perform in a way that it's optimum to run with him there, particularly with my gripes about Avi not being a good runner. No you are not. You are also ignoring the count. Soto in his career has a .497 OBP with a full count. Again the only plays that hurt are infield liners and strikeouts. Anything else either doesn't matter or it helps he was running.A fly out, Avi gets back to first, a pop out, same thing. It is worth the gamble, now be like you want Hawk and Stome to be and just admit you are wrong.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 09:57 PM) Well that just strengthens my argument. If it's merely to stay out of the double play, that means you're expecting Soto to behave like he does in a normal at-bat. And Soto swings just 40% of the time, puts the ball in play about 35% of the time, and gets groundballs on his balls in play just 40% of the time. Therefore, he hits a groundball on roughly 6% of pitches. He gets hits on about 10% of pitches. He takes called strikes about 27% of the time and swinging strikes about 10% of the time. Therefore I have the chances at a groundball or hit at about 16% and a strikeout at about 37% of the time. Adjust somewhat for a 3-2 count if you want to but it's not gonna make up the difference. But you are ignoring the situations his running is a push. The only gamble is striking out and lining out. Plus with 3 balls his chances for a walk are heightened.