With the lineup changes I can't see how comparisons to 20/21 are valid. I don't think it's outrageous to believe the team just floats along and plays at .500 again. I can barely consider it negative thinking. But yes, Jack is a sky is falling poster most of the time. And like a broken watch that is right twice a day, he's got a reasonable point right now.
Currently we have lost more than we have gained. Until we see who replaces the players who are leaving, .500 may be a valid goal.