witesoxfan

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 7, 2011 -> 10:04 AM) I'm glad I am not the only one who still has that reflex. I don't know that they have the pitching depth to do it, and they may have dug a hole too deep (because damn near 20 games under .500 is RIDICULOUS). All I can think of is 2006. Then, they were 12.5 back on May 27th in 2006 compared to 16.5 back on June 1st this year. They also aren't facing the two best teams in the league - one of them legitimately the best team in the league (and that team somehow missed the playoffs...) - ahead of them this year. 87 games might win the division this year, and that is certainly within grasp of any team in the Central right now.

That's because they are. They are going to need Rios and Dunn to turn it around. I know one will, and Lillibridge has been performing like a stud in place of the other. dare I say, Lillibridge:Torres::Rios:Rowand?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 7, 2011 -> 10:00 AM) I feel a lot better chasing the Tigers and Indians of this year, than the Twins of last year. Mostly because the Tigers have proven in the past to be second half duds (though of course, that was without Victor Martinez) and the Indians are already starting to feel some regression. I still worry about the Twins. Just when you stick a knife in them, they win 5 straight against opponents in the Central. It should be literally impossible for that team, as currently constructed, to win 5 straight games. I think a good college team could beat them. They will get healthy, and it could all be at the same time.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 7, 2011 -> 09:47 AM) Devon White was a great defensive CF in his day. I miss stuff like that, but I sort of understand it. I think that's the hope of the organization. Honestly, I don't mind this draft philosophy. Draft athletes who project to CF (or SS, though they haven't done that yet) who can grow into their bodies. If they grow so big and get good enough offensively, you can switch positions. If you draft a 1B at 47 overall, you better know that dude is either going to hit 30 homers a year or is going to rise quickly. Having multiple tools doesn't hurt. Thought I read he had a good arm too. Seems to me Walker at the moment is a 20/40 Bat 20/35 Power 75/80 Speed 40/80 Field 60/80 Arm The two that bug me the most are the bat and power. Those, especially the bat, are the most easily coached and able to go above the initial scouting report. If they can develop him into a 50 bat with a decent eye at the plate, then the rest is golden. The stealing will translate over time and the fielding and arm will get better through mere repetition. Hope and pray that the worst case scenario is Carlos Gomez. At least then, if he's still broadcasting (and alive, quite frankly), Hawk will be able to gush about how big of a Twins kills Keenyn Walker in.

On June 8th, last year (the Sox didn't play on June 7th last year), they were 25-33, Williams and Guillen were trying to hang each other, and Mark Kotsay was in a White Sox uniform. On June 7th (the Sox DO play on June 7th this year), they are 29-33, Williams and Guillen are not (publicly) trying to hang each other, and Mark Kotsay gained weight, changed his name to Adam Dunn, signed a $56 million deal, and finally got a hit off of a f***ing left handed pitcher. Things ain't looking too f***ing bad, eh??

I will say, regardless of my actual feelings for the pick, that he better develop defensively. Naturally, the predictions/projections to players come from coaches within the system, but White was a .263/.319/.419/.739 and 98 OPS+ player. B-R has him at 4 years with a WAR at or above 5, which makes him among the best players in the league that year. That was, for the most part, predicated upon the fact that he played a great CF and was average to good offensively. Let's hope he cuts down on the strikeouts! /not sure if referring to Danks, Flowers, Viciedo, Short, Thompson, or name-a-minor-league

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jun 7, 2011 -> 02:23 AM) Man I respect your optimism. Don't you ever go by the eye test though? Throw out the past numbers? It's the end of the first week of June and the man is LOST. He's a DP/K machine. Of course I use the eye test greg - you must have missed my Quentin thread a week ago. I've done the same thing with Dunn. I've looked at the extremely limited video I have, as well as the limited unpaid time I have (*erHEM* Sox people), and I see absolutely no difference in swing from year to year to year. I thought I saw something from 09 to 11, but it turned out to be a fan's glove in the background. Players who have extremely long swings like Dunn have a tendency to go through extreme streaks. The first three relatively current players I can think of are Jim Thome, Ryan Howard, and Mark Reynolds. Thome doesn't work quite as well because, though he does have a long swing, he [f***ing STILL, to this very day, at the ripe age of 40] gets it through the zone quicker than Dunn does - there's a reason why his career batting average is .277 when he strikes out almost 25%, and that's all predicated upon bat speed and bat control. He has always been superior to Dunn in that regard, but Dunn got $10 mill more a year with an additional 3 years because he can actually stay healthy and has proven to produce similar results in the past. Considering Thome has been on the DL twice already this year, you'd be pissed if the Sox were paying him $13 mill. I seem to recall you being pissed at Thome as it was. Beyond this point, I will not nor would I suggest anyone else debate the White Sox (stupid, dumbass, moronic, f*** Mark Kotsay, I mean really Mark f***ing Kotsay?) decision to not pursue Thome last season. Ryan Howard, through the first 47 games of 2008 (zOMG, Dunn is more than 47 games in!!!) put up a .183/.289/.396/.686 line. His OPS was at .608 10 games previous to that, so he had been on a bit of a hot streak. Mark Reynolds line from all of 2010 was .198/.320/.433/.753. I would suggest this as the worst case scenario, but I believe that Dunn has a better eye at the plate than Reynolds, so I would suggest that .200/.335/.430/.765 is about the absolute worst that can be expected upon out of Dunn. The power is ever so slightly down, but that's mostly due to me trying to round to easily addable numbers. His worst case could be .762 or .768 or .757...hell, I don't know. He's not going to be this bad all year - I KNOW that. QUOTE (T R U @ Jun 7, 2011 -> 02:32 AM) Ugh, Konerko was SO bad in that first half.. its crazy that it does almost feel exactly the same with Dunn right now.. its just like, what the hell is going on?? Eddie Guardado's right handed version needs to come out to pitch in extra innings with the Sox down by 1 at home so he can tie it up. He'll come through it. We will probably see it in a key at bat at some point in the next 2 weeks. He'll strike out a bit afterwards, but so long as he knows he's coming out of it, then it will be. /Socrates'd /almost certainly destroyed that classical philosophical analogy QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Jun 7, 2011 -> 08:36 AM) I truly feel sorry for Adam. This slump has got to be killing him. Dude has dealt with slumps before. He's just never dealt with them with a White Sox crowd. He'll get through it. Honest to [whatever you believe in], I feel that this is something at which Ozzie excels. He is doing everything he can to take the pressure off of Dunn. At this point, with as many lefties as the Sox are facing on this homestand, it might be best just to sit him for a few games. Let him relax. Let him collect his thoughts. Give him some time in the cages where his swings mean nothing. Give someone who is going to hit better some playing time. Perhaps DHing Rios is the thing to do now...let him work strictly on his swing against pitchers he has an advantage against, but giving him instant and extended access to the coach (gahh Walker!!) after each AB. I hate to say it, but really, nothing is going to hurt at this point. May as well think at least a bit outside of the box.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jun 7, 2011 -> 12:50 AM) When I say "gone" I don't mean for the rest of his career. I mean pretty much for this year. Like Mark McGwire in 1991. It might just be one of those flukish years that one simply can't explain. You hope that a switch just goes on and he becomes the monster he used to be, and that really isn't unprecedented, but it's really just a wait and see game. I don't think people remember how bad Konerko was in the first half of 2003. On June 28th, Paul Konerko's OPS was .525. From July 2nd until the end of the season, Konerko put up an .865 OPS. To cherry pick further, from July 13th to September 7th, he OPS'd 1.050. Dunn is definitely not going to have his typical year, but I'm going to be extremely surprised if he doesn't end up with an OPS of .800. He's had a pretty terrible year, but I would honestly say it's probably only half as bad as the year Konerko was having in 2003 - considering his OPS was more than 100 points less and strong offense was much more prevalent then. He will right the ship. He won't end up with a typical 38 homer, .900 OPS Adam Dunn season, but he will right the ship.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Jun 7, 2011 -> 12:19 AM) Joe Borchard retired. Sox should have signed him to a 4 year, $56 mill deal. They'd be getting the same production!!!

QUOTE (danman31 @ Jun 7, 2011 -> 01:15 AM) Yes and at the time that was warranted. It really can't be said enough how awesome the Sale pick was. Teams were backing off of him because of signability and the Sox worked around that. Obviously, his upside is lower as a reliever, but you still have to love the pick. I seem to recall that Law's biggest criticism of the Sale pick was that he didn't see him profiling as a starter. I don't recall him ever questioning Sale's stuff but rather the lack of pitches in his arsenal as well as his durability.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jun 7, 2011 -> 12:30 AM) Your optimism is to be commended. But I've never seen Dunn this lost. He's decimating his career K% and that's saying A LOT. I think he might be gone at this point. I've thought Konerko was gone a lot before too, and he's turned it around just fine. In fact, this season sort of reminds me a lot of Konerko's 2003 season. There is absolutely something wrong with Dunn right now. Whether that it is mechanical, physical, mental, or even emotional, I'm hoping he is doing everything in his power to keep the team up to date on it to try and get it fixed.

QUOTE (JorgeFabregas @ Jun 6, 2011 -> 11:22 PM) Because of that, many folks were paying more attention to the Tigers. Sox lost half a game to the Tigers during that same stretch. It is amazing to me that they only lost half a game, because it seemed like the Sox sort of struggled for a portion of that, the Tigers played well, and then the Tigers beat the Sox in that series.

QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Jun 6, 2011 -> 03:52 PM) I hope you're right. The only issues I have with your initial post are a.) all 5 of the slumps you mentioned occurred in August and later, when he had solid first half production. Might this say more about his general production in Aug/Sept than a general, time-neutral slump? Looking at his career splits, his career BA, SLG and OPS are are lower in Aug and Sept than any other month. Also, even during those specific slumps he never had a K% of 42% (I checked). b.) Also, the fact the Sox may be out of the race by the time Dunn turns it around is reason enough to worry. It'll be great when he starts to hit, but it might not have much effect on the season if he's tearing it up in relatively meaningless Aug/Sept games. Also, out of curiosity, I understand you're not worried now, but at what length of time of similar production would you become worried? 300 at bats? 400? 500? Not a sarcastic question, just wondering what's your threshold? If Adam Dunn does this for the entire season - hits about .180 and 15 homers and a Pierre-ian OPS - then I get worried, because that is about 800 plate appearances dating back to roughly midseason of 2010 that Dunn has been a bad hitter. I mention that I have 6400 plate appearances worth of data to base these assumptions on. I have about 10,000 PAs worth of data that says Frank Thomas is going to be an MVP candidate next year. At some point, a detrimental change in talent can have its effect on a player. I haven't seen anything to indicate that there has been one with Dunn, whereas it is quite clear that it has happened with a now 43 year old Frank Thomas.

31 of 54 outs were strikeouts. Oh, and Lehigh Valley hit into a DP.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jun 6, 2011 -> 11:51 PM) We've already got raw, speedy, boom or bust clones in Mitchell and Thompson. Why do we need another? Thompson isn't really speedy, at least not in the same sense that Walker is. And quite frankly, can you really ever have too much talent in a system, even if it is in the outfield? Like I said, there are quite a few other directions I would have rather they gone. I have no major qualms with the selection.

I expect the Sox to draft about 8 pitchers tomorrow. I don't really care either way for the Walker pick. To be quite blunt, there's a lot to both like and hate about his game. Point blank, I have no problem with the Sox injecting pure raw talent into the system and that's exactly what this pick is. I would say it deserves a grade of a C+/B-. I would have preferred they draft someone who may hit for a bit of power if they were going to go with a hitter, but I would have ultimately hoped that they had brought in a pitcher. Whatever.

QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Jun 6, 2011 -> 10:57 AM) At all? Wow, you have some serious faith in stats there wite. I am a stats guy, and I like and agree overall with you initial, well thought out analysis. But I think we have to use our eyes a little in the analysis of Dunn. It's likely he'll turn things around in the second half (whether or not the Sox are seriously in the race by that point notwithstanding), but it won't just be a case of stats and luck normalizing. It will take a serious physical and mental adjustment, because his stance, swing and head are so out of whack right now. Of course there is work to be done to get Dunn back to his career norms. Baseball isn't a game of random luck where you can just ride the storm out and a player will start producing. These plays have to constantly make mechanical adjustments to correct flaws in their games. 6400 plate appearances tells me that Dunn can make those adjustments and that it's a matter of time.

On June 3rd, the height of the river was 15 feet in Pierre. As of right now, it's 18.28.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jun 6, 2011 -> 01:25 AM) I don't think the Dunn we see today will hit eventually. I am thinking he needs to lose weight or change his approach cause he has no f***ing clue. Ok Greg

QUOTE (Jake @ Jun 5, 2011 -> 10:39 PM) I had a bad groin strain my freshman year of high school that was never really treated beyond icing and a few days off because of the nature of the beast in high school, trying not to miss any games as a three sport athlete. Now as a sophomore in college, it still bothers me. I still pitch and deal with some pain and inflexibility, but I'd venture to guess that I would have a hard time discerning whether I had reinjured it or not unless I did so on a large scale. Sometimes it's hard to discern whether a small pain/sensation is just one of those momentary things or not. The same thing happens to me when I bowl, actually. I'll tweak it just the wrong way, and sometimes it's like "OK, try and be easy with the next one to make sure it isn't in too much pain" and it's usually fine. There are times when I actually do tweak it and doing anything can become a burden from there.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 5, 2011 -> 10:14 PM) so you prefer the type of athlete that, at the slightest pain just gives up and says I'm done? That's fine if you prefer an athlete with that type of attitude. I prefer the type that doesn't give in and continues to work at it. Pitching is a violent motion and pitchers always hurt to some extent. You get guys like Prior who can't deal with it and guys like Peavy who try to work through it. You can have Prior, I'll take Peavy. I prefer the type of athlete you do, but when the athlete in question has had a problem of pitching through pain and then missing an extended period of time due to said time frame, he needs to be much more cautious when he actually plays. For 24 guys on the White Sox roster, I want them to try to pitch through the pain, even if it's just to gut it out for an inning. For Jake Peavy, I want him to signal to the training staff the second something doesn't feel right.

QUOTE (Bighurt52235 @ Jun 5, 2011 -> 08:20 PM) The Indians, are who we thought they were (on April 2nd)! I'm not concerned with them, and the Tigers are not that great either. I don't think the Tigers are that great either but they do have the talent to win the division and sneak into an 87 or 90 win season.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 5, 2011 -> 07:51 PM) I'd trade him for Zambrano in a heartbeat, but Cubs would never do that. Absolutely. I think they are pretty similar pitchers actually.

Groins typically don't heal quickly either.

You f***ing moron