witesoxfan

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 31, 2011 -> 09:51 AM) Sox the only team carrying 5 on the bench and 6 in the pen, as opposed to 4 and 7. One year too late. I mean, seriously, what's so hard about carrying both Thome AND Kotsay? Not that I actually want to start that again, but it still to this day seemed like such an obvious move.

QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Mar 31, 2011 -> 08:56 AM) How many playoff series' have the almighty Twins and their invincible "farm" won? (I'm assuming everyone here would cry tears of joy if we had the Twins system) Neither team is doing it 100% right, and just as you don't think we're consistent contenders, I don't think the Twins are either. Wining the division then getting demolished in the playoffs every year isn't a contender in my opinion. As a couple writers have said, the Sox are extremely volatile, we'll either be incredible or huge underachievers with nothing in the middle. I'm fine with that strategy as long as they are doing everything possible to fill huge holes (Dunn>Kotsay) and gambling on having a legit WS contender vs building the Twins version of a "contender". Writers' opinions are generally more respected, but a lot of these guys are still relatively clueless when it comes to the game. If you think about it, they have the ability to develop connections within the game itself and yet almost none of them ever end up in any front office capacity whatsoever. Perhaps most of them simply enjoy the writing and don't want to get involved with the game itself, but I tend to doubt that is a universal truth. Personally, I think the Sox are the surest thing in the division, but it's hard to know how high the ceiling really is. I've basically been making my predictions sporadically across the site, but I believe the Sox are about an 88-93 win team as currently constructed. Considering I have the Tigers maxing out at 86 wins and the Twins anywhere from below .500 to 95 wins, I think the Sox have a good shot at winning the division this year. I just generally don't understand how the Sox are anything close to a boom or bust team. If you seriously look at the composition of the team, I can really only think of about 3-5 guys that I only have a general idea of what they are going to do this year, with those 3 being Quentin, Beckham, and Peavy, and the 4th and 5th guys being Morel and Jackson. I think it's very safe to say that, on paper, the White Sox have the fewest question marks throughout their 25-man roster among all the teams in the AL Central.

QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Mar 31, 2011 -> 06:08 AM) And although that list is somewhat impressive (to be able to find guys like Floyd, Danks, etc) where has it taken us? They haven't even won a playoff series with that team, and only made the playoffs once with the players they've acquired since 2005. Just look at what they had to do with the payroll, they spiked it up to $125 mill to fill holes, and they still don't have depth t many key areas. In my mind, the only area that the White Sox don't have sufficient depth is for the starting pitching staff, and that's quite clearly felt with Humber starting the year in the rotation. I think there are a couple of medium upside arms starting in Birmingham that may be able to come up and give the Sox a good start or two if need be. I'm hoping it's Rienzo. Beyond that, the White Sox generally do have a solid injury replacement at most positions. C - Castro/Flowers 1B - Dunn/Viciedo/Teahen 2B - Vizquel/Escobar 3B - Vizquel/Viciedo SS - Vizquel/Escobar LF - Teahen/Viciedo/Milledge/De Aza CF - Milledge/De Aza RF - Teahen/Viciedo/Milledge/De Aza DH - every single person above As far as bullpen arms are concerned, the Sox have Anthony Carter and Gregory Infante who are both very close to being ready and, in fact, I think it's very possible that Infante is a better option than even Pena at this point, but the Sox believe in Pena, he does have a bit more experience, Infante is still raw yet, and he has options, whereas the Sox have already guaranteed about $2 mill to Pena. On top of that, Infante would have been the last man out of the pen this year, and in Ozzie's bullpen, he wants that to be a guy who can go multiple innings while doing what can be done to keep the team in the game. That is nowhere near Infante's style. I don't worry about the actual "depth" of this team because they, like most teams, have capable short-term replacements in the wings. My concern is the prospect of those replacement players actually developing into some type of good, consistent, everyday player. Of those I listed above in that depth chart, I see only two guys that I have confidence in going forward, and one of those - Escobar - is completely blocked.

QUOTE (SoxFan1 @ Mar 31, 2011 -> 03:09 AM) This is a good place to ask, I suppose. Your most expensive bar tab, GO: Mine personally is only about $60, but a guy we were with at the Fieldhouse in Iowa City racked up like a $500 tab. I think he talked it down to about $200, but that was unreal. It was shots and pitchers all night long.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Mar 30, 2011 -> 10:07 PM) You're right for the most part. Teams with subpar pitching rarely end up winning it all. But you're assuming guys like Beckett/Lackey, two guys with a number of years of proven performance, will be as bad (and in Lackey's case he wasn't bad) as they were last year. If they are, then Boston won't win it all. But if they bounce back, and there's plenty of reason to believe they will, they're most definitely the team to beat. Well that's exactly it, teams with sub-par pitching don't pitch well, but teams with OK pitching or even just good pitching can do just fine. And beyond even that, it's simply a matter of playing really good baseball and the right time. As pretty much the perfect example of this, the 2001 Diamondbacks won the World Series against a vaunted Yankees team that was playing with a ton of emotion behind them (and for my money, that was my second favorite World Series that I've witnessed and the absolute best overall World Series). That 2001 Diamondbacks team were led by Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson. Their numbers from that year... Schilling - 2.98 ERA, 256.2 IP, 7.3 bWAR Johnson - 2.49 ERA, 249.2 IP, 8.4 bWAR I'm not going to do any complicated math, but those two combined for 500+ IP. That was 1/3 of the innings that the Diamondbacks pitching staff threw that year (which is pretty f'ing remarkable). Their starting pitchers' ERA that year 3.88; their bullpen ERA was 3.88, which is good but not fantastic. I think the general point has been made. It's late and I'm rambling and the Red Sox have enough pitching talent to win a World Series. So do the White Sox and Athletics and Yankees and quite a few other teams around the league.

Vids or it didn't happen

QUOTE (Heads22 @ Mar 30, 2011 -> 10:38 PM) wite needs a new av never ever

QUOTE (gfbaseball @ Mar 30, 2011 -> 10:40 PM) You can drive from Kannapolis to Great Falls if you want, I'm flying. 2177 miles if you take I-94 which just so happens, takes you right through Chicago. Charlotte to Birmingham is about 350 miles too, so it's a little more than a hop, skip, and a jump away too, but, averaging 70 MPH, it's 5 hours, give some for traffic.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 30, 2011 -> 07:35 PM) Ozzie saids crap like that all of the time. At the end of the day, it took a lot for Jenks to get yanked. Getting hurt. I think had Jenks been healthy in September, he would have been closing then too. In fact, his last day pitching for the White Sox, he got 2 saves in 1 day.

I say deal with the weather. It's two weeks of s***ty weather. It's also two weeks sooner that real baseball starts. If it gets postponed by a day or two, that's better than having it postponed by 14 days. I also disagree with October not being a baseball month. I think October is a great month for baseball. I think November is a poor month for baseball. They should really be able to schedule the season so that, even if a series every round went the max, you can still get Game 7 of the World Series in October. Also, the MLB season is really nothing compared to the NBA season. There are more games played, but there are like 8 months in total of the basketball season, which is a full month more than baseball. I find that to be excessive.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Mar 30, 2011 -> 01:33 PM) Could not disagree more. Certainly some things have to go right for them but they have big time power arms in their rotation as well as their bullpen. And Vmart and Miggy could be do massive damage in the middle of that lineup. They scare me more than a healthy Morneau and Mauer. Both Det and Min had very good springs and seem like they're ready to kick off the season strong. Plus they don't seem to be such p*****s when they play the Twins like the Sox do, and since the Twins are still the team to beat, I would say they have a very good chance in hell. Well they only play the Twins 18 times, so even if they go above .500 against them, they still have 144 games with other teams. I think the Tigers are going to have some problems getting the ball to Valverde. It shouldn't be a big problem, but I think they are about middle of the pack in terms of bullpen talent. I also don't like the back end of the Tigers rotation - Penny, Porcello, and Coke doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence. They are still injury prone and older, and the defense is not really that great either. Brandon Inge, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila, and Boesch/Wells are all going to be in their opening day lineup. Austin Jackson has always hit for an above average BABIP, but to expect him to be able to retain a .396 BABIP is too much. I wouldn't be surprised at all if his batting average dropped anywhere from 20-40 points, and either one would leave his OBP around .300-.330. You want more out of a guy who is going to be your leadoff hitter. Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen are supposed be in the lineup everyday this year, but Maggs is 37 and hitting for less and less power each year, and Carlos Guillen is already starting the year on the DL and it's not likely to be his last trip either. I also think Victor Martinez is a bit overrated around here. He's not a good defensive catcher, which is why he's mainly DHing at this point, he isn't a particularly patient hitter, he's not an amazing hitter for average - he's just a good hitter. I think he'll probably put up an .850 OPS or so, which is good, but not amazing. I also don't care how any team is ever playing in spring training. The Royals have 20 wins this spring - I'm not concerned. Let's see how it all unfolds in the regular season.

QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Mar 30, 2011 -> 12:21 PM) Just think though, Aaron Poreda could be our ace right now No way, he'd be in the bullpen. The Sox will get him in the rotation next year. Seriously, with that many weaknesses, they aren't NOT going to put him in the rotation.

QUOTE (joeynach @ Mar 30, 2011 -> 02:16 AM) After looking through a lot of information for fantasy drafts I actually think John Danks is very similar to Ricky Romero when trying to compare top left handed pitchers. I understand Danks has a few more seasons under his bealt, but the perphrials are strikingly similar. Romero is 27-18 with a 3.99 ERA, 7.3K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over the course of 2 seasons. Those are very similar to Danks and Romero has recieved a 5 year 30M deal. I think Romero is a better comparison than Billingsley becuase of factors liked Kalapse mentioned. Romero pitches in the AL (and AL East at that) and pitches in a hitter friendly park as well. But you can't compare them from a contract point of view because Ricky Romero exchanged the risk for future earnings by capitalizing on guaranteed money from the blue Jays, which is exactly what Evan Longoria did too. Had anyone suggested that the Whtie Sox resign Alexei Ramirez based on Evan Longoria's contract, they would have been laughed out of the room. So sure, they may be comparable pitchers, but the contract doesn't make sense. I would also say that the future value they agreed to is about $13.1 mill - the value of his club option in 2016. Perhaps Romero keeps improving and proves that he is a better pitcher than Danks, but I tend to think that he's slightly worse due to his command issues. Either way, we can't compare his contract to the one Danks is eventually going to get. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 30, 2011 -> 09:06 AM) If it was that easy, I think it would have been done already. I wouldn't necessarily say that. I think it's possible that that the White Sox are dead set on giving him 3 years and/or far less than $16 mill at this point and Danks' side has been dead set on getting 5-6 years plus more than $16 mill. The fact of the matter is, that would be the biggest contract the White Sox have ever given to a pitcher, and it could be quite a bit more than Buehrle's contract, which is currently the biggest (at 4/$56). In base value alone, it's like 14% bigger than Buehrle's contract, and it could ultimately be like 43% bigger in value and a year longer. It's not a small contract, and not something that Reinsdorf might easily approve (especially because Danks hasn't won him a World Series...only half joking). We'll just have to see how it plays out. If he won't compromise, I hope Jesus Montero ends up with the White Sox.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 30, 2011 -> 09:55 AM) Other teams had worse OPS's out of the DH spot than us, so I was surprised to see this statistic about last year's team. That's because there's absolutely no way that's correct. http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-ind...HW|2010|bat|AB| What I imagine these writers did was look at Kotsay's fWAR - -0.7 - his bWAR - -0.9 - and found the average of those two to, you know, make everyone happy. They then just said that he was the full-time designated hitter and didn't consider anybody else who did DH. It's not entirely flawed, because Dunn is replacing most of those ABs, but they are absolutely incorrect in their analysis. Beyond that, what's worse about them using simply WAR for DH is that it includes the fielding quotient of WAR too. Depending on who you use, Kotsay was worth -2 to -4 runs saved defensively last year, but DHs don't play the field, so that tends to work against one's argument. What would have been better was to simply say "Mark Kotsay was awful but now they have Adam Dunn so the White Sox are going to be way better"

That, and the fact that he's better. Chad Billingsley has pitched his home games at Chavez Ravine for the duration of his career, which has played as a pitcher's park for pretty much the entirety of Billingsley's career. He's also pitched in the NL, which has been a weaker and generally more diluted talent wise throughout his career as well. Meanwhile, Danks has pitched his home games at USCF, which has been incredibly hitter friendly largely due to the short fences. He's also pitched in the AL, which has generally had far more talent than the NL and is tougher to pitch in simply due to the DH (for quick comparison's sake, DH's put up a .758 OPS last year; pitchers put up a .353 OPS). I would say that John Danks is, at the very least, in the conversation as one of the 10 best left handed starters in the game and he's probably one step below being an overall "Ace," like a Roy Halladay, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, whatever. And I think you can probably argue that Danks is a top 5 lefty in the game based on the "proven" factor and durability, which rule out guys like Liriano, Price, Santana, Wilson. John Danks is really good, and if the Sox don't pay him as if he's really good, then he's going to sign with someone else.

QUOTE (Benchwarmerjim @ Mar 29, 2011 -> 11:19 PM) I think the Twins will be ok...but it will be a battle in the AL Central as always. I mean, it wouldnt shock me if the Twins Sox or Tigers win it. I think the lineup will be fine. The one player I look forward to is Nishioka. He has had a good spring, and adds speed to the lineup. Maybe the combo of Span and Nishi will finally be the combo that breaks through and gets on base constantly for Mauer and Morneau. Rotating DH of Thome/Kubel/Mauer/Morneau seems to be in the works The starting pitchers dont worry me. The Twins seem to have some depth there, with Slowey in the bullpen and Kyle Gibson in AAA Rochester. The bullpen is a huge worry. Nathan bouncing back from injury means that he wont pitch back to back days right away. A lot of the pen has been overhauled, with no Guerrier and Crain...its going to be weird for a while. But, the Twins have done this before and its worked out. Bottom line: I am more confident in this team than in years past. But, with the additions the Sox have made (mainly, Adam freaking Dunn who is going to kill Twins pitching), I cant fully say the Twins will win the division. Peeking in, I think the biggest two issues with the Twins will be getting the ball to Nathan/Capps and the middle infield. You seem pretty confident in Nishioka, and I assume like most Japanese players he is a non-flashy, good fundamental player (like most Twins players anyways). I assume Alexi Casilla has to concern you a bit. He's been weird in the past, with like one or two good runs of play and otherwise very mediocre. Perhaps he'll be better with very few expectations put upon him. And that bullpen is going to struggle initially, though there's still enough talent in there to make it work. Gardenhire, though he tends to micromanage at times, is the best bullpen manager in the entire game, so if there is anyone that can find some success with that group, it's him. It will be a lot of mixing and matching early in the year getting to the back end of it, so that is going to be the biggest struggle by far. This is also the second time you've mentioned that you think Dunn is going to be an absolute Twins killer, and I do agree. Dunn has never had a weakness towards any pitch and isn't afraid to swing the bat (but has no problem holding back). The Twins mantra over the past decade has been all about location and not nearly as much about stuff, though Liriano can obviously bring it. That type of pitcher just seems to be the exact type of pitcher that Dunn will crush. Lo and behold, that's exactly right. Dunn's power vs finesse splits Power - .217/.362/.458/.820 Avg P/F - .245/.381/.505/.887 Finesse - .280/.394/.583/.977 For comparison's sake, here are Konerko's Power - .263/.354/.480/.834 Avg - .262/.342/.465/.807 Finesse - .299/.364/.527/.891 Power is defined as top third in BB + K, finesse as bottom third of BB + K. I'm assuming that, generally, because the Twins focus on location and getting hitters to get themselves out, that most "Twins pitchers" are considered finesse pitchers, aside from Liriano. Those would be the exact type of pitchers that Dunn has almost put up a 1.000 OPS against in his career. As I alluded to in another thread, I think the Twins are a more talented team than the White Sox. I also said that I think a hell of a lot more can go wrong with the Twins than can with the White Sox, namely both middle infielders, Morneau's head, Mauer's knee, Thome's back, Valencia and Young's bats, the back end of the rotation, Pavano in general, the middle bullpen, and the back end of the bullpen. I could honestly see the Twins anywhere between below .500 to 95 wins. It's really tough to get a handle on them. Oh, and I don't think the Tigers have a chance in hell at winning the division. They seem to be a 78-86 win team, nothing more, nothing less.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Mar 29, 2011 -> 06:59 PM) You obviously think more of Viciedo than I do. I'll be content with early 2000's Jose Guillen as his ceiling. Heyward and Posey are generational type talents. And you know how I feel about Cargo. I do absolutely love Viciedo. It's hard for me to even think of someone with a bat that quick with so much strength behind it. The first thought that pops into my head is Cecil Fielder but I don't foresee Viciedo adding that much weight. Jose Guillen actually isn't a terrible comparison, but I think Viciedo is going to hit for a higher average and a bit more power than that too. If I had to give a range, I'd say anywhere between an .850-.950 OPS during his peak years - anywhere from .300/.350/.500 to .325/.375/.575 (with some wiggle room in-between). If Quentin wants to start for the White Sox next year, he really needs to bring his A-game because Viciedo is going to be knocking on the door. And for your personal sake, he better have a good year because I could easily see the Sox resigning Pierre on a 1-year deal to bridge the gap to Mitchell or whomever with Viciedo taking over in RF in 2012 if he does not.

QUOTE (Paint it Black @ Mar 29, 2011 -> 07:01 PM) How is Posey for MVP ridiculous? On a side note, Keith Law picked the White Sox to win by 2 games. I thought about making a thread but then realized 40 posts of "Keith Law hates the White Sox" without anyone having actual proof, isn't fun. You don't say? I'm completely with you on this one. I've never seen Keith Law really go out of his way to take shots at the White Sox, the Alexei joke aside (and I'm sure he sat up all night coming up with it...he doesn't seem to be a beacon of personality). He hasn't liked the White Sox talent, and a lot of his knowledge and beliefs are grounded in both statistical and scouting analysis, so when he sees a player and doesn't see the numbers (or vice versa), he is going to criticize them. He criticized the Sale pick because he doesn't believe that Sale can be a starting pitcher and it IS an extreme overdraft picking a reliever that high, no matter how successful they are (for comparison's sake, I would say it's like picking a kicker in the first round of the NFL, and there's only been one man crazy enough to do that). I have no problem with Sale in the bullpen this year, but have major reservations about him staying there next year. The fact of the matter is, the White Sox have a lot of really good pieces in place this year and I'd say by far the fewest questions marks up and down the team. Based on pure talent alone, I would give a slight edge to the Twins, but so much more can go wrong with that team than can the White Sox (I feel weird saying that, but I honestly believe it to be true).

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Mar 29, 2011 -> 09:57 PM) Jerry is going to have to swallow his pride and get off this little 3-year rule when it comes to pitchers. He went 4 years with Mark because of '05. But Danks will command a minimum of 5 years. So something will have to give. I would say that the best compromise would be to go 4 years with a vesting option that should be easily reached if Danks stays healthy. It becomes a regular team option with a large buyout if not reach so that, assuming it isn't reached which would also assume that Danks did not pitch particularly well, he would still go into free agency with a bit of change so he can still get a 1-year deal and not need to make a killing on it. Somewhere around $16 mill a year at full value, so like... '12 - $12 mill '13 - $15 mill '14 - $16 mill '15 - $17 mill '16 - $20 mill or $4 mill buyout, vests with 90 starts between '13-'15 or 25 starts in '15 Total guaranteed value is $64 mill over 4 years while the 5th year, if reached, pushes the total value to $80 million (maintaining the $16 mill per year value). If Danks is healthy and pitching well, he's worth that contract and, again assuming health and all that jazz, he is still young enough that he can secure another pretty sizable deal and push his career earnings well over $100 mill.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Mar 29, 2011 -> 06:19 PM) I still don't see your point? So because the Nats weren't going to settle for our garbage that's somehow a win for the White Sox? And why are you bringing up names like Heyward and Posey? As if Viciedo is in the same stratosphere. I think ceiling wise Viciedo is absolutely on par with those two. The problem is that his floor is a AAAA player, where those two have already established themselves as above average starters. If he becomes just a little more patient at the plate, he is going to be a force. Just because... Carlos Gonzalez @ 21 years - .288/.336/.478/.814, 130 games (120 at AA), 19.9% K, 6.9% BB, 547 PAs Dayan Viciedo @ 21 years - .274/.308/.493/.801, 86 games (all at AAA), 21.5% K, 3% BB, 363 PAs We are also well aware that Viciedo can atleast hang at the major league level, though he wouldn't have been able to maintain his .308 MLB batting average with a .365 BABIP. I'm obviously not trying to say that Viciedo IS Carlos Gonzalez, just that they have pretty similar minor league numbers and progressions and games overall. Gonzalez is a superior athlete (and thus, also a superior defender), but Viciedo has a lot going for him as well. He still has a lot to work on, but there is no question that he could turn into an incredibly special player within the next 2-3 years. So yes, while it's frustrating that the Sox didn't have the depth required to deal for Adam Dunn at the deadline last year, they did the right thing in keeping Viciedo around.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Mar 29, 2011 -> 12:44 PM) I realize that. Reporter - "Ozzie, Carlos Quentin is hitting .300 against right handed pitchers this season, but only .200 against left handers, do you plan on sitting him against lefties?" Ozzie - "Where you come up with those stats? Right hander never hit bad against left hander, it against rules of besibol. When I was a ked playing in streets of Venezuela, my manager would tell me to go hide in a trash can whenever the opposing pitcher throw with his left hand. You tink I'm going to break the tradition? Who the f*** you think I am? Buck Showalter?" I heard Ozzie use the word phrase on-base percentage. I will seriously believe anything at this point in time, so it's possible that he may be receptive to a righty/righty platoon.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Mar 29, 2011 -> 10:14 AM) Does anyone else think Joe Buck's call in the 2005 WS was one of the worst ever? Every time they replay it on that Score commercial, it's like nails on a chalkboard. "Juan Uribe with a play, charging it, throwing it..." So...freaking...LAZY!!!! What kind of description is that? "A guy, does a thing, and someone is out, I guess." My grandma could call that play better and she barely knows where she is! What a terrible broadcaster. /aside That's the major criticism of Joe Buck. He shows no emotion whatsoever.

QUOTE (TheBigHurt @ Mar 29, 2011 -> 02:52 AM) I admit I haven't done a whole lot of research, but if Dunn's OBP is generally better than Konerko's that's shocking to me. The dude draws a lot of walks. Career .250/.381/.521/.902 hitter. It's not entirely surprising to have almost half of Dunn's plate appearances each year ending in the form of a walk, strikeout, or home run.

QUOTE (joeynach @ Mar 29, 2011 -> 01:17 AM) r This is actually not so bad, id rather play more home games in the warmer months of June/July/August where our team can really take advantage with power. We get to play at the Yanks and Red Sox at a time where they too will be "waiting for the warmer, slugger happy" weather to come around. We play the Yanks and Red Sox early where they usually get off to a slow start as well. 2010 marked the first time the Red Sox had a below .500 April since 1996, and most of them weren't even borderline. In 2005, they went 12-11 and in 1999, they went 11-11. Otherwise, they've been quite a bit over .500. The Red Sox simply haven't gotten off to slow starts for the better part of 2 decades. The Yankees are a bit different, but their lineup has become more athletic over the past few years, so they are less dependent upon power and moreso on good pitching and executing offensively. In fact, they went 15-7 in April last year, so that's quite the opposite of starting slow. No matter what, those are always going to be tough games. Just gotta hope you can play them well.

If Chris Sale struggles, this team is going to be in trouble down the stretch.