caulfield12

Schoenfield came out and predicted Sale for the Cy Young already. Jinx? Said he would have won it two years ago (vs. Kluber) if not for those missed starts.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/features/cyyoung Sale and Latos 1/2 Just wanted to capture this moment (like when Tyler Flowers was leading the AL in hitting) for posterity's sake. Bet a lot of teams out there are wishing they took a chance on Cishek or Ryan Madson (seems Beane miraculously finds closers out of thin air nearly every season).

Attendance first 9 games 2008 228,065 (finish 16th in MLB, this despite a disastrous 2007) 2009 252,230 (finish 16th in MLB, bounce from 2008 playoffs, albeit disappointment due to CQ injury) 2010 206,879 (17th in MLB, team does well and is in first place until fading down stretch against MN) DIVIDING LINE 1 2011 207,900 (21st, slight uptick again due to relatively successful 2010 season offset by Dunn disaster) 2012 188,177 (24th, fallout of the Dunn disappointment, team is in 1st for most of year but finishes 4-11 and 3 gb) 2013 181,696 (24th, surprising performance of 2012 season stops bleeding but no playoffs) DIVIDING LINE 2 2014 152,141 (28th, bottom completely drops out and the wheels come off the wagon, Abreu/Sale/Eaton the only reasons to watch) 2015 183,308 (26th, White Sox spend nearly $200 million in offseason spree on Cabrera, Robertson, LaRoche, Duke, etc.) 2016 170,939 (27th, currently down -6.7% from 2015 start) The Red Sox series will be another interesting "tell" next week...unfortunately, those games are midweek and not a weekend series because the Twins have been playing like crap. Do they still have the "dynamic pricing" in effect? Realistically, the White Sox, should they continue to play competitively (not necessarily first place but within 2-3 games of it) could jump up to around to 22nd-24th in attendance but unless they're way out in front like 2005 and running away with the division, the 2012 "skepticism" will stay with them until they actually win it and fans jump back on the bandwagon (and/or get tired of the Cubs' Love Fest). For what it's worth, I might have been hasty saying the season ticket loss was 2000-3000 per game, it now looks like it might be roughly 1/2 of that...we'll find out more in the coming weeks. The positive here is that we're up 12.4% on 2014 already, which should continue to grow in the next 4-5 weeks before the real "summer" attendance and weather arrives.

Yeah, and they also compared Alexei Ramirez to Ramon Santiago. Nobody really knows...but to assume OBP numbers from Cuba are going to stand up is a bit far-fetched. Or that he could contribute as early as this season for the White Sox. The odds are that he's more of a fourth outfielder than a star in the making. That said, scouts have been wrong before, as in the Alexei Ramirez case as previously mentioned. Kang with the Pirates last year was a shocker. This year, Minnesota's Korean DH has already hit some massive shots as well, although he looks like he's going to strike out a ton. OTOH, the Korean the Orioles signed has been a pretty big disappointment. Time will tell. If you look at the money thrown at Yasmany Tomas, Rusney Castillo, Jorge Soler, Alex Guerrero, Hector Olivera...none of those contracts have come close to being justified as of yet. At any rate, if there's ANY Cuban we target, it should be Gourriel because next year's going to be make or break for the Sox and they need someone who can step in right away and make an impact wherever they put him.

It's the backup QB syndrome with Saladino again. Let's not forget last year that despite his stellar defense, when the position was presented to him on a silver platter after Gillaspie and Beckham struggled that he couldn't handle it offensively. He pretty much disappeared the second half of the season, and, despite all the offseason hype, if they were really sure about playing him at SS this season, they 1) would have had him playing nearly everyday for Alexei in September (Ramirez could have been DH, 2B, CF, etc., to demonstrate his versatility if they cared THAT much about his free agency with another team,) 2) wouldn't have acquired Jimmy Rollins at least three years too late.

That would make sense if one of Danks' starts wasn't the home opener and the other on the road. Statistically, there's very little correlation with attendance upticks even in Chris Sale starts. It's looking at the same number of games (six) as last year, so the rainout probably ends up as a neutral because had they tried to play under those conditions the walk-up would have been less than 500 and their overall attendance would be even lower than its current 18,000+ average. At any rate, more evidence forthcoming this weekend against the Rangers, an "average" or slightly below draw one would imagine.

11,525 vs. 11,418 yesterday. Right now, we're currently in 28th place in attendance, ahead of only TB and Cleveland. At this point last year, after six games...we had drawn 125,423 for an average of 20,904. After Thursday's games, we passed the 100,000 mark, at 109,213 for an average of 18,202. The net difference is -2,702 tickets sold per game, a decline of roughly 13%. That's probably a pretty fair estimate of the decrease in season tickets sold from 2015, a loss of somewhere between 2,500-3,000 season tickets. The only difference was that first Sunday game against CLE was wiped out, but the weekday opponent (Angels/Trout & Pujols) was or should have been a better draw than the Cleveland Indians. On the plus side, last year we were 7-9 (and headed to 8-14) vs. 10-6 this year, a three game improvement (and a pace for 101 wins). If you consider the "Fan Cost Index" number of $26.05 for the 2015 White Sox, over a full season, that projects to a loss of ONLY $5.7 million in revenue, or less than 1/2 of Adam LaRoche's 2016 contract.

If the White Sox were 6-10, then it MIGHT be something to take a look at. Suppose it's a harmless diversion from criticizing Avi Garcia, Danks and Duke (lesser extent)...or Sands. Everyone was so spoiled by his rookie year, especially the first half when his PA's were "must see tv" that maybe he's now a little bit the victim of unfair expectations or assumptions he'll always produce homers like in 2014 when 2015 might be closer to the norm.

Speaking of Latin American prospects, there's a really interesting documentary about that agent/trainer/buscone system in the Dominican Republic (the year was 2009, the actual film came out in 2012) titled "Ballplayer: Pelotero" which follows Miguel Angel Sano as a 16 year old (his battle to establish that he's really not 18-20 as many claimed) and the family fight to be cleared. Another SS prospect who is lying about his age and who goes from expecting $1.4-1.8 million from the Astros to "only" receiving $200,000 (Jean Carlos Batista) when it turns out he's actually a year older. (During the course of filming, he turned down $450,000, which has almost never happened in the Dominican that a bonus like that was snubbed...then the age allegations/birth record alteration came out.) Cool to see Sano wearing a White Sox hat. Michael Inoa/Ynoa also has a bit role, having signed the previous high bonus with the A's that Sano's agent was targeting.

I think it was a bit of a stretch to expect "historical norms" from Jackson, the catchers and Rollins based on their performances the last two seasons. Then you had the obvious uncertainty about Garcia coming into this season, even though he was "only" replacing LaRoche's terrible numbers. Right there, you've got four issues out of 9. Lawrie, it was/is probably not too irrational to expect some improvement at USCF...simply because one of these busted prospects has to break out every 5-10 years for the Sox. That leaves Frazier, Abreu, Eaton and Cabrera that we were just hoping for their norms of the last two seasons offensively. They can get by with five hitters, but there's no way over a full season it's going to be enough to compete with KC and Detroit if you just compare. Right now, the only thing that's really going right is the bullpen, defense is improved (especially with Jackson and Eaton in RF looking better than anyone would have envisioned) and then you have Latos and Sale basically carrying the team with Quintana consistent and Rodon still a bit unpredictable. Danks, also, isn't a surprise. The observation of the Angels' radio crew was that "he's one of those guys who everyone in the stands feels they could go up to the plate and have a chance of making contact against."

It would be a lot easier to stomach if not for: 1) LaRoche leaving too late in ST 2) Having Avi/Beckham/Viciedo forced on us year after year 3) If we actually had a treasure chest of minor league prospects champing at the bit for playing time 4) Missing on all those opportunities in the off-season (but hey, at least we didn't sign Jason Heyward!)

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 08:15 PM) PEDS If it wasn't for exposing McGwire/Sosa after that historic 1998 season/HR chase...you could almost argue that protecting Arrieta from being outed would be worth a lot more to MLB than "heartbreaking" news of a PEDS violation and the Cubs' season being upended.

Is this the low point for Sox fans in terms of their relative position against the Cubs? If it wasn't last post-season, or 2003...it feels like it is coming soon. Would hate to compare the tv and radio ratings for the respective series this week...but it would be interesting to see how many more were watching Arrieta tonight (granted, the no-hitter will attract more the last three innings, but the "average" over the broadcast) and compare it with the Sale start. Of course, that's not altogether fair since it was a day game, but the Cubs are just sucking all the air out of the room. It almost makes you cringe HOPING that something bad happens (not an injury to Arrieta)...that strange sensation of rooting almost as hard against the Cubs as for the White Sox.

We'll also throw in a set of instructional videos from the Todd Steverson "How to Hit Like a Big Leaguer" collection done in conjunction with world-renowned coach/guru Tom Emanski and Fred McGriff absolutely free if you call in the next 9 minutes. 1-800-SOX-RAKE

QUOTE (SoxSteve @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 05:07 PM) True but those guys knocked in 100 plus runs and hit 30 homers. And when it's your average for the last 3 years that tells me something and its not the kind of player i want on my team. I don't need to see what his WAR IS. That's says it all And putting up those RBI numbers are completely different contexts if you're comparing the 2016 White Sox with the Cubs or Cardinals. That's the whole point of statistics, after all, to account for those differences. As far as the error and strikeout numbers go, once again, context. From a SS, you can have your Royce Clayton or Jimmy Rollins who make all the routine plays or you can have a Valentin or Uribe that will probably make more total errors but have a lot more total chances due to range, and a lot more outs recorded due to their arm strength. If a SS fields the ball cleanly but can't get the ball to 1b in time, it's never going to be recorded as an error unless he throws it away. Then you have to look at the average offensive production of players at that position. Ian Desmond is still mentally in a funk that dates back to passing up that $107 million contract, but Jon Daniels in Texas is one of the smartest GM's in the game. Surely they took more into consideration than errors/strikeouts when signing Desmond to play in the outfield when he'd never done so before.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 07:20 PM) This thread should be stickied every early march as well. Spring doesn't mean s***. My name is Wilson Betemit, I'm the second most interesting man in the world and I fully support this message.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 06:32 PM) To think the Red Sox offered Iglesias and we said no. You have two evaluation errors there, perhaps three (remains to be seen)... One, on Avi Garcia. Two, on the fact that they weren't ready to let go of Alexei Ramirez (until it was too late and they'd already missed the chance to get Iglesias. Plus they got nothing in return for him.) Three, the assumption Anderson would play that position in the future. Looking back, it's always those little things. Granted, the Tigers have a payroll nearly $80 million higher than the White Sox, but if you put JD Martinez (released), Salty and Iglesias on the White Sox, you likely have a first place team that can compete with almost anyone.

QUOTE (ewokpelts @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 07:45 AM) The sox get free rent if attendance falls below 1.2 million. They haven't hit that in the new park. And last year saw an attendance increase from 2014. I'm not sure why that would be an issue for a club that makes its 125 million dollar payroll simply with tv money. Because that 3,000 extra in attendance per game is going to provide them the additional $9 million (+$13 million saved on LaRoche) that it's going to take to afford a Carlos Gonzalez or Jay Bruce. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensa...cago-white-sox/ The White Sox are at $114.5 million, KC at $131.5 million and the Tigers at $198.5 million, fwiw.

It just seems close to implausible the White Sox would give Coats the starting job at the end of April or in early May when they're in first place or within hailing distance of KC/Detroit. After passing on all those available hitters (and yes, a large part of it was the late timing of the LaRoche decision), it's going to feel like a slap in the face to fans having to watch the likes of Upton and Gordon in the same division while the White Sox continue as a bottom 8-10 MLB offense. You can argue the Tigers have Gose getting at-bats, the Royals have Dyson/Orlando/Fuentes...but both of those offenses are much more balanced top to bottom. Garcia's spot was EXPECTED to be roughly the 4th or 5th most productive in the line-up (after Abreu, Frazier, Eaton and Cabrera)...at the very worst, the equivalent of Lawrie. That's a lot of pressure to put on a rookie, and a test that has been failed more often than not. The last homegrown rookies who held their own were Fields and Owens in 2007, and those were pretty meaningless games that they excelled in...same with Trayce Thompson last year.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 06:32 AM) Todd Frazier cost Montas, Thompson, & Johnson. No way in hell CarGo costs two top 50 type prospects. Outside of a few select trades (Shelby Miller, Cole Hamel), teams simply aren't giving up high end prospects and definitely not without years of control or limited payroll obligations for the player being acquired. Don't forget the Giles and Kimbrel trades. Philadelphia's sitting pretty right now in terms of young pitching. Of course, the Devil's Advocate position is that there is no compelling reason for the Rockies to trade CarGo, either...not with Story doing so well and the team at least semi-competitive in the early going (Blackmon's apparently out, too). Colorado isn't hurting financially, and the focus has come off Jose Reyes and onto more positives for that franchise. They have the second best young 3B in the game (to Machado) in Nolan Arenado as well. As for Cincy, the Reds will want to ride Bruce's positive start and hope if he can extend it for 2+ months that it will increase his trade value and they might not even end up having to eat anything on him or Phillips (who's also off to a solid start, but has no that no-trade clause).

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tige...-moya/83275764/ Here's another attempt from a Detroit writer at stirring up the trade market. Moya is blocked now by Upton/JD Martinez, but they would be unlikely to help a division rival (the year of the Garcia trade, the White Sox were well out of it already)...and then how much do we trust someone from the Tigers with how Avi's panned out? They seemingly are making the better choices (Salty, JD Martinez, Iglesias) while their castoffs like Avila and Jackson (he's doing better than it looks statistically) are struggling. Joey Gallo's an interesting name, if you like your hitters in the "all or nothing" Dunn/Thome/LaRoche camp. Seemingly blocked at multiple positions, value's down quite a bit. Billy Hamilton...not sure I want to touch this one with a ten foot pole. Danny Duffy...KC bullpen (see Moya, and he would be adding more to our overall left-handedness again)...don't see a match, unless Cooper really coveted him (plus KC might need to replace Young/Medlen, etc., at some point) Matt Kemp...this name has been much discussed, depends upon the financials, similar to Hanley Ramirez in terms of status (how much would the Padres be willing to pay to get rid of him?) Like CarGo, can absolutely carry a team for 4-6 weeks but is the negative baggage worth it? Another name would be Jurickson Profar...who also appears to be blocked in Texas, but they're going to wait it out and see if they can keep him at middle infield before they give up and move him to the outfield.

12,093 for the night game, 12,785 for the day game (WED)...for an increase of 5.7%. Seems they're fighting for every possible fan they can get with those promotions (flash sales) for selected seats at $10 in different locations. Cincy (team in complete rebuild mode) at 12,979 and CLE at 9,890 today.

Even with the presence of Sale (Trout for the Angels games), Abreu, etc., it hasn't meant much because of the team simply not winning and/or playing entertaining AND sound baseball for three years now. We're 27th in the majors in attendance at this point. The only teams behind are OAK, CLE and TB. Two of those are teams with stadium issues, one a team which had the longest streak of consecutive sellouts at Jacobs Field but has simply never recovered from two complete sell-offs/rebuilds and another factor was CLE being hard-hit by the 2008-2009 financial crisis. CLE drawing 9,890 instead of the White Sox or Reds (today's crowds) drawing about 3,000 more is around the worst-case scenario...and then you have the stadium lease agreement which has a controversial clause subsidizing attendance if it falls below a certain amount, can't remember if it's 1.2 or 1.4 million. As of this exact moment, we're in first place by 1/2 game over KC and 1 game over the Tigers, with Cleveland trudging along around .500.

Matt Latos, Chicago's answer to Jarrod Saltalamacchia. That has to be one of the highest return on investments through 3 starts of any free agent pitcher. Of course, otoh, returns on Avi Garcia, Rollins, the catching corps and Austin Jackson leave something to be desired. At any rate, the plus of having a competitive team is it's exerting some pressure on Hahn not to allow another Beckham/Viciedo "development year" for Garcia. At best, he has six weeks to prove himself.