caulfield12

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 05:37 PM) Not even close to reality. Hawkins is our number 1 outfield prospect, an easy top 10 in our system, with excellent, albeit unrefined tools, who just had a bounceback season. Nothing about him fits the definition of a spare part. The Sox have no second baseman and may be peddling the SS. Those 2 positions will be divided among 3 players, of whom Sanchez is one. Now it's also true I have little interest in a highly paid player with De Aza numbers away from Coors field who is poor defensively and who has big warning signs indicating sharp decline. He may be iconic to the Rockies, but he's extremely flawed in my eye. The Sox need a good fielding LF who can hit -and that will be the hardest need to fill, no doubt. And from that list....Rasmus, Melky Cabrera, Morse, Torii Hunter, Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, good luck choosing from among them. M.Cabrera, Morse, Hunter (even at his age) and Cruz (except for the 2nd half decline) can obviously hit, but then your defense is not taking a step forward. We're building the anti-Royals, a diametrically opposed opposite if we were to trade Alexei. Markakis can sort of hit and sort of field, but not superior by any stretch at either, especially for the price tag. Then you have the Rasmus Enigma.

If "contact skills" was translatable, it surely didn't happen with Keppinger's example. Or when we had AJ and Pierre on the team. It has to be a systemic, team-based change of hitting philosophy, like we saw in combination with Pods and Iguchi and the non-power hitters in 2005. The Royals are the perfect example...even Gordon wasn't a GREAT hitter last year, but they make a lot of contact at most spots in the line-up (obviously Moustakas and Hosmer have a ways to go) and have a team with lots of speed to take advantage of those balls put in play. One of the reasons that started happening was Escobar was moved to the top of the line-up and became less of a free swinger, and then Aoki's such an unorthodox contact hitter behind him it rubbed off on Cain too, who started to make better contact and decided to be a "pure" hitter rather than high strikeout/15-18 homers projection. Butler as well in the 2nd half, even though his power numbers were way down.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 04:54 PM) Ha, both are literally the baseball definition of a spare part. Sanchez is (at this point) a decent utility infielder that has maybe a 1/3 shot to turn into an average MLB middle infielder either at SS or 2B. Hawkins is a B- prospect that hasn't yet played above A ball. You trade those guys 10/10 for an established MLB player like Gonzo. Not saying Gonzo would even be a particularly good target (don't know enough about his injury history or his splits outside Coors) but those guys are by every definition "spare parts" that would be used in a trade like this. To already define Hawkins as a "spare" part after he was pushed so much in 2013...beyond where most experts believe a high school player with limited baseball experience should have been, it's a risk that we finally do have a "toolsy" player break through. With the noted failures of Mitchell, Thompson, K.Walker, it seems logical to just lump Hawkins into that group, believe the White Sox won't develop him and trade him away. Sanchez, sure. But Hawkins has the most power potential of any prospect in our system when power's becoming a more and more valuable factor in the game. Let's look at it this way. If Carlos Gonzalez was a free agent today, would we be happy if the White Sox signed him to a contract that's the exact same one as we would be taking on if we traded for him? You've got the injury concerns, the fact he's had two "subpar" seasons in the last three years (no matter how you aggregate the numbers over 5 years to mask 2 of the last 3, where his "average" WAR over 2 of those 3 has been in the 0.5-1.0 range), the home/away splits, the transition from the NL to the AL thing to deal with, it's too much, in combination. If your medical team is convinced he's 100% healthy, sure, you have to consider it. The Rockies' doctors/medical team has even more information, so why would THEY want to trade him when you have a potential superstar (return to that status) whose trade market value has been dinged at least 50%? If CarGo was on the White Sox, we'd all be saying let him play this year and rebuild value...don't sell low on a player with that type of ability. If he doesn't show the health (we have another version of this problem in Danks), then you are pretty much stuck with him unless you're willing to eat a significant amount of salary. The problem is that he's an iconic player there (unlike Danks in Chicago), so you can't just "dump" CarGo and trade Tulowitzki without getting major pieces in return. Just don't see it happening. Finally, I haven't even looked them up, but haven't his defensive metrics also eroded over the last 2-3 seasons? To say that he's STILL a better outfielder than Eaton at this stage is pushing it a bit.

This is still a lot of antipathy towards Cuomo's father...numerous skeletons buried in the closet that supposedly prevented a presidential run back in 1988 or 1992. Then you have the Kennedy connections, which can rub people the wrong way sometimes. He's not nearly as articulate or well-spoken as his father. To me, he's another version of Rahn Emmanuel.

I'm of the belief that Hahn would rather wait another year and sacrifice a first rounder from #12-18 in 2016 if he can't get any of the few logical targeted players this off-season. Or that we might strike in the Cuban/Japanese/Korean market again, where it wouldn't cost us a high draft pick. Or that instead of forcing an acquisition that's not an ideal fit, he'll figure out a way to trade for that logical/critical asset instead. Granted, he doesn't have Reed and Santiago to dangle this time around....he's stuck with moving fringy prospects, Alexei Ramirez or Dayan Viciedo, which doesn't provide much in the way of wiggle room.

$100-116 million for a 3B who's very likely to continue to battle weight/health issues into his 30's....and who's likely to put up a 725-750ish OPS in the coming years? I don't think the upgrade is worth the money unless it's for an all-around superstar-caliber player with offensive and defensive skills in the OF or at catcher. Sandoval's a 12-18 homer guy now, which isn't FAR off what Conor could be expected to provide in the next year or so. The major difference is his defense, but is that really worth a nine figure contract for a team that hasn't approached that number for a single player?

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 06:53 AM) Next year our 1st round pick might not be protected so if you want a premium hitter or 2 which comes attached with a qualifying offer then your giving up a 1st rd. draft pick. If we get a premium hitter or 2 this year. we give up a 2nd and 3rd round draft pick. Also if you target some of those guy above will it not impact the Sox ability to get those guys next year since you have now occupied much of the payroll flexilbilty ? If we're going to make moves for premium talent then this is the ideal year for it. Except there are no "ideal" players. Sandoval's projected to get $100-116 million for 5-6 years and he's probably a 725-750 OPS 3B from here on out.

The date "skinny ASU/Pirates" Bonds started using and went from borderline HOF with great defense, steals and XB power (but not 40-70 homers annually)?

QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 01:30 AM) someone actually knows how it is done. great. but let me ask, this doesn't include for a pitcher having a bad day. it the pitcher has a bad day, it counts against the catcher. unless I am reading this wrong. the idea is that over thousands of pitches, trends will develop between umpires and certain catchers getting the "benefit of the doubt" on "grey zone/corner or on the black" calls over others of course, it would be hard to calculate exactly because some hitters are known for having such a precise strike zone that anything they don't swing at should be called a ball

QUOTE (Heads22 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 09:52 PM) What democrat do you guys think will win the Iowa caucuses? Because it matters.... Historically, you've had to win either Iowa or New Hampshire. I can't remember, but Bill Clinton was one of the few exceptions... http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/30/politics...lone/index.html About the possibility of nobody contesting Iowa against Clinton. Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders (zero chance to win), Warren (popular but needs more experience?), Webb, Biden, Klobuchar (MN, border state, might be looking to raise national profile, first "two women" ticket?) and Deval Patrick (pretty much zero chance NOW with Obama's performance, unfortunately race will be used against him). Webb and Warren the most interesing resumes. O'Malley would be the 3rd choice there. I always thought Bayh from IND had some potential but I think he's done with politics as far as I understand.

A healthy CarGo in his prime at Coors Field > Rasmus Unfortunately, that 759 OPS over the last three years away from Denver doesn't help his case...not to mention the injuries, the contract we'd be assuming and talent surrendered. Basically, two of the last three years he's been a 0-1 WAR player. And he's finally reached the last season of his "peak" years, his age 29 season. That would be fine, in and of itself, if he'd shown an ability to stay on the field the past three years. That worrying trend, alone, doesn't augur well for him staying healthier as he continues to age. Too much risk IMO.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/...llar-big-hero-6 First really interesting box office showdown (Interstellar vs. Big Hero 6) since the summer.

QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 07:51 PM) according to mlb rumor page, Col would be willing to hear any proposal for Troy Tulowitzki. his new contract starts next yr, for 6 yrs. he is 30 yrs old now. according to the splits you will see the huge difference in fields stats. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/...ar=2014&t=b Tempting, but even our best offer of Montas, Danish, Anderson and Hawkins might not be enough to get it done. They would ask for Quintana in addition and that would be the deal breaker IMO. If they would accept the first deal, it's definitely something to consider. However, a Rockies player coming to the AL, his injury history...his going into his decline years, only the Kenny Williamses of the world have the balls to make that deal. And the problem is that the farm system still doesn't have enough depth to recover from losing every top prospect but Rodon in one fell swoop. It would take another 18 months to replace that level of talent.

Here's another hypothetical: Trade Danks for Ethier/Edwin Jackson/Josh Hamilton vs. Trade some package of prospects not named Anderson and of course Rodon (let's say Montas, Hawkins and Semien/Sanchez) for CarGO I don't think anyone's (except the poster on this thread page) going to give up that talent and take on another possibly corrosive contract...just way too much risk. We did it with Thome, but that was with a rather large subsidy attached to make the financials work. The Rockies are going to be more desperate to unload him with so many outfielders, especially if they're serious about keeping Tulowitzki). Then you have that other batch: Nelson Cruz, Rasmus, Markakis, Torii Hunter, Michael Morse and Melky Cabrera All six of those guys have HUGE HUGE red flags that you could point to and say why signing them would be disasters. Of course, that's why GM's are paid the amount they are. To assess that risk and pull the trigger...so far, with the exception of Abreu and Eaton, Hahn has been very conservative and risk-averse. Maybe not this offseason, but heading into 2016 (just like the Cubs' situation going into 2016 for Theo) he's going to have to put his job on the line.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-leag...-190201826.html And if you surveyed all the current players, 75% or more would probably agree with him. That's the biggest issue for any "Ivory Tower/young breed" GM, gaining respect, learning the lingo and providing insights that actually help the players and their careers...being able to translate "saber" language into "clubhouse" language. Part of it is the "disrespect" of being cut or evaluated by someone who's never played the sport, whether that's right or wrong to feel, it's there for many athletes unless that coach/GM becomes so effective with his approach that nobody questions it. We saw it in the Hosmer article if you read that...about a writer trying too hard to "be cool" and relate to the players.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:40 AM) I will say this, if Victor signs with someone else, I hope he sucks even worse than the posters who don't want him think he will. Didn't we all say basically the same thing about Ubaldo Jimenez and Beckham last year at this time?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:38 AM) I think "always" is the wrong word to use in this situation, as there are always exceptions - guys like Jose Abreu and Jermaine Dye come to mind immediately. Still, I think you know what he meant. We don't need to play this semantics game. It's a good and valuable discussion and I don't want to see it degrade into a pissing match. Alexei Ramirez also comes to mind.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:18 AM) Uhhh, another $35-45? You'd assume somewhere around $10-12 mill a year for Robertson and $8-10 mill for Miller. At the most, that's $22. You bring in a couple of flyers - not $6-10 million type guys, but $2-5 million types or minor league free agents who aren't going to cost a ton of money. And then a 4th outfielder who hits left handed and is fairly good defensively? That costs like $5 mill at the most. No, it's nothing like $100,000 in student loands, what's another couple hundred thousand, because that's all borrowed money. It's like "I have $70,000 I can spend on a new car, and while I should go for something reasonable that will cost me in the $20-$30,000 range, I am going to splurge on a $55,000 car and hope nothing comes up." It's risky but has high dividends. It's not may favorite way of going and I'm not advocating it, but if you get Victor, you may as well try and set yourself up the best you can to win this season. Robertson's already guaranteed $15.3 million. He's unlikely to get any $36 million/3 year deals, so he ends up staying in NYC... If we're bringing in $2-5 million reclamation starting pitchers, Dick Allen will have his own website. They would be better off going with Noesi and Bassitt in that case, unless Don Cooper really knows something nobody else does....never mind. And why are we adding a 4th outfielder when we don't even have a 3rd one? Sounds like you want Aoki, Denorfia or perhaps DeAza again.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:04 AM) Obviously dependent upon price. We can argue that until the cows come home, but I agree his bat would look good in the lineup. I just don't think the price is going to match up for what the Sox are willing to pay compared to others. If it does, that's awesome. At that point, they may as well go out, spend big money on Robertson and Miller, bring in a couple decent starting pitching flyers, sign or acquire a left handed outfielder who is good defensively, and see what happens. Another $35-45 million when you just blew $17-18? It's kind of like when you have over $100,000 in student loans, what's another couple of hundred thousand at that point?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:02 AM) Apparently you were only focusing on the bad signings then? You didn't mention the big one, nor did you mention all of the little things that have worked otu. When has signing a 36 year old to a 3-4 year guaranteed free agent contract (and not a convicted in the court of public opinion PEDS user) ever worked out in baseball history when that player was coming off an anomalous statistical career timeline performance in his contract year, which happened to be in his mid 30's?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:00 AM) I am not switching arguments. You made my point. You have to spend money to sign good players. Besides, if the White Sox do improve just a little bit, the cost for signing a free agent will become a 1st round pick if they wait. Again, I wouldn't go 4 guaranteed years for Martinez. 3 with performance based incentives to make it 4, but he is perfect for the White Sox line up. Abreu and Tanaka were unique circumstances. We only had 2-3 competitors for Jose, when normally the big spenders would have been involved. In this case, we're fighting with 6-8 (maybe even 10) teams (the majority closer to the playoffs) who could use Victor Martinez at either DH or 1B. The other teams are all kicking the tires on Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez and Headley, who might quickly sign with the Yankees and further decrease the supply and push up demand.

Jose Fernandez doesn't make a lot of sense because he ALSO isn't a very good defender and he's playing a position where we have three potential options (Semien/Sanchez, eventually Micah Johnson)... If we're going to upgrade, it has to be at C, 3B, LF and DH. I've read a number of threads and there's almost no mention of what Flowers is going to do next year...more of the focus has been on improving the 3B situation or whether Garcia will be a 2-3 WAR guy despite his defense and whether Eaton will/can stay healthy. I think Balta's right that there are just too many holes to fill that can't be filled (because it's cutting down the remaining money left considerably) by signing Victor Martinez. Let's say you have $15-20 million more to spend after signing Martinez (that wouldn't even get you ONE season of Robertson now). So I'll go back to my V. Martinez, Rasmus AND Brett Anderson or Sergio Romo example. Most here would say even if you added ALL FOUR of those players, you wouldn't have a surefire contender. All past evidence points to the White Sox adding AT MOST three pretty high level free agents. I'll substitute Edinson Volquez for Anderson and now we're close to $35 million again with Victor, Rasmus and Volquez and we STILL would begin the 2015 season with Danks/Noesi/Bassitt at the back end until Rodon came up....which might get us buried early. We STILL wouldn't have done anything to improve the bullpen. If you DON'T add a starter, you're stuck with the worst 3-5 rotation in baseball again. You're adding four players with LOTS of question marks. I honestly don't think there's a single player on the market right now 75% of the posters would be happy if we bought them on the free agency market because of the dollar figures/years. Ethier (subtract Danks and add $3.5 million, now no need for Rasmus) OR trade Danish, Montas and Hawkins for Heyward (which nobody will be in favor of) Victor Martinez +$17.5 million Then we'd have to add at least one veteran "second tier" starter to the rotation, let's say Volquez +$9 million Then you have $10 million left for one really good bullpen piece or two Luke Hochevars that are more speculative Eaton Ethier Abreu V.Martinez A.Garcia Conor Gillaspie/Semien Alexei Ramirez Flowers Semien/Sanchez (eventually Micah Johnson) That line-up STILL feels ONE player short, with quite a few question marks 5-9 IMO. Sale Quintana Volquez Noesi Bassitt/Beck/Carroll becoming Sale Quintana Volquez Rodon Noesi with Bassitt, Beck and Montas figuring into the bullpen puzzle, along with the $10 million you spent on a closer or two high quality set-up guys

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 08:25 AM) Yeah, spread it around. $4.25 million for Keppinger, $3 million for Belisario, $2 million for Paulino, $4 million for Downs, how did that work out? You are going to need a lot more than 5 or 10 Andersons to make it through the season. You do not "win bets", let alone win bets everytime loading your roster with players that cannot play even half a season. The same way Iguchi, Everett, Contreras, Pods, Vizcaino, Politte, Hermanson, Dye, AJ and El Duque worked for the White Sox...or the veteran additions the Red Sox made heading into the 2013 season. Remember Napoli, Victorino, Uehara, Gomes and David Ross??? None of those guys were "headliners" like Victor Martinez when they were acquired. Same thing with all the players the White Sox brought in (with the exception of F. Garcia)....Everett and El Duque were among the most expensive additions. Or the success the A's had for most of the season with Jessie Chavez and Scott Kazmir, along with their numerous "who the hell is that guy?" platoons?

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 08:17 AM) Very good summary though your solutions for the pen are a bit farfetched. No idea who Babbit is and Montas will be given every chance to stick as a starter and Cleto can't throw strikes. I was the one who suggested Saunders so if he could be traded for then there's no need to sign a FA OF and the remaining money after signing VMart could be used on the pen and/or innings eater SP . I don't like Aoki , his defense just isn't up to snuff for a slap hitter type. Bassitt, not Bruce or the novel name Saunders will now cost more than just Viciedo, if they actually intend to keep Dayan on the roster through the offseason. Like Aoki, Saunders is fine if you add a BIG bat in the middle of the line-up to go with Abreu and hopefully Avisail. He's going to give you marginal improvement, but he's the definition of a complementary player on a really good team. Now I would rather have him than Nick Markakis, but that's simply cost-benefit analysis, not who's the better player.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 07:56 AM) Brett Anderson hasn't pitched more than 83 innings in a season since 2010, and hasn't pitched more than 112 since 2009. Coming off back surgery, I don't know how anyone could project him to suddenly be a guy who can pitch the entire season. Giving him $5 million is a waste of money. Sign players that will actually help you win, not guys who will spend most of the year on the DL. Just like $60 million will be a HUGE waste of money for Martinez. I'll take 5-10 Anderson's and win that bet every time. The problem is that Hahn has to make much better assessments in that salary range than Keppinger, Belisario, Downs and Paulino (to a lesser extent). Besides, we wasted a lot more than that on Beckham and DeAza with little payoff as well.