ChiliIrishHammock24
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2014 White Sox ZiPS projections
ChiliIrishHammock24 replied to ChiliIrishHammock24's topic in Pale Hose Talk
The WAR projections scare me. So we only have 2 hitters with a WAR over 2.0, with Abreu leading the team at 2.3 WAR. Ouch. That's worse than last year. -
Don't get too excited, they haven't been released yet for the Sox, although it appears very soon, because Dan Szymborski couldn't sleep so he started running some of the projections...... The results aren't going to make too many people here happy.... Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 23m Decided not to go to bed. Decided to run White Sox ZiPS projections. Now too scared to go to sleep. Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 20m After Sale and Quintana, White Sox pitching ZiPS are more depressing than a Darren Aronofsky movie. In reference to a question about Riezno.... @asroka He's at least interesting, more than you can say for most of the system Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 13m @SportsJunkie854 Tweeted him awhile back - Eaton's not a great fit for the Cell. Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 9m Well, one bit of good news - ZiPS likes Marcus Semien quite a bit. Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 6m Jared Mitchell's projected offensive line is...uh...interesting. Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 4m List of ZiPS White Sox Batters over 2 WAR: Jose Abreu, Alexei Ramirez. End of list. Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 3m List of White Sox hitters projected within 30 points of OPS+ of Jose Abreu: End of list. Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 2m Don't tell the people asleep, but Abreu's at 273/364/494, OPS+ 129, 2.3 WAR, 26 HR. HR heavy profile good fit for the Cell.
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I am willing to bet that Hank Hill is Matt Thornton.
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QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 13, 2014 -> 03:27 PM) I understand this, that is why I questioned such a baseless prediction. It was moreorless because I wrote all my predictions in, and then as I was doing the rankings I realized how high I put the RBI count relative to everything else, but I am a person who likes to go with my gut, so I said "f*** it" and left it. It's much more likely if he is hitting 28 HR, that his RBI total will be around 85-90, or if he hits reaches 104 RBI that his HR total will be more like 33-35. Oh well, going with the gut and hoping he rakes W/RISP.
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My family is doing another Hawks roadtrip this year, this time in Nashville in April. I think it may even be the last game of the season. Last year our trip was to Detroit. Since the Hawks have become amazing, and the city loves them, I haven't been able to go to a game in over 5 years at the United Center. Yet I have seen them play in Detroit and now will see them in Nashville.
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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jan 13, 2014 -> 03:13 PM) News Alert: Joe will watch a TV show. You watch EVERYTHING. When you have insomnia and stay up until 4-5 AM every night, you'll find yourself watching a ton of TV shows and movies.
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QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 13, 2014 -> 03:18 PM) What makes you think his AVG W/RISP will be so strong. Absolutely nothing. Guessing RBI totals is completely a crap shoot (other than the HRx3 baseline number), so by picking such a high RBI total without having a great AVG or high HR count, the most logical way to bridge that gap is that the player is great W/RISP. I have no reason to believe he will be or won't be, I'm just hoping he will be to justify my RBI prediction.
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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jan 13, 2014 -> 03:03 PM) Is anyone else tired of the Soxtalk user acting like he's Jose Abreu shtick yet? No, because it doesn't matter, and it's easy to ignore. I don't think it's particularly funny, but it also doesn't bother me if it makes him happy.
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QUOTE (scs787 @ Jan 13, 2014 -> 11:30 AM) I'll say he matches what Cespedes did he first year only in more games (Cespedes played 129 games, I'll say Abreu plays in the 140s).... .290/.355/.505 25-30 HRs 90-100 RBI 120-140 Ks. I'll also add that he'll be clutch as funk. That's what I was going for with my prediction of 104 RBI based off only a .270 AVG and 28 HR. I see a lot of doubles, and a great AVG W/RISP.
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True Detective was pretty interesting. I like the format of how it takes place in near-present day, but all the stories seem to be flashbacks to the past. Keeps it all a mystery, outside of the characters obviously surviving each story. It wasn't a terribly exciting pilot, but it planted some seeds. I'll keep watching.
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Hingle McCringleberry
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QUOTE (Paulstar @ Jan 13, 2014 -> 01:05 AM) They don't need Gillaspie. They need a right handed bat that can play 3B, and it looks more and more likely that they are satisfied going into the season with Kelly Johnson at 3B, Brian Roberts at 2B, and a combo of Ryan and Nunez being the backup infielders. If anything, I could see someone like Carlos Sanchez be appealing to them as he seems pretty close to MLB ready and can get called up in case one of Roberts or Jeter gets hurt. Why a right handed bat? I would think they would want the lefties to take advantage of that short porch in RF where the ball just flies. A balanced line-up, I guess, but they have so many switch hitters on that team that they could be absolute death on RHP and survive against LHP. I mean, they have what, 4 switch hitters on that team?
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Sherlock, magnificent yet again. It's funny when I hear people complain about a 13-week show ending and having to wait 9 months for the next season. Sherlock is only a 3-week show and now I have to wait 11+ months to see it again! Season 3 ended on an awesome cliffhanger. This show is just so great. If it wasn't for the short-short seasons, I would enjoy it even more than Shameless.
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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 10:29 PM) Gillaspie and De Aza for a scrub I'd trade them Conor Gillaspie and De Aza (whom they really don't need) for something like LHP Vidal Nuno and SS Cito Culver.
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I'm going to say.... .270 AVG, 28 HR, 104 RBI, 3.2 WAR And because every seems to care, I will say 165 Ks, which would put him somewhere around like 23-25% K-rate? Just to put these predictions in to perspective, here is where those would rank last year among 1B..... .270 AVG (13th) 28 HR (8th) 104 RBI (5th) 3.2 WAR (8th) 23-25% K rate (19th) That would pretty much make him a fringe top-10 1B next year, and his best OFFENSIVE comparison would have been Prince Fielder. Now hopefully he plays better defense than Prince, so he will have a WAR higher than Prince's 2.2, and more like Eric Hosmer's 3.1. I'd take that in a rookie season 8 days of the week.
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I would say wait until January 25th to make it. Then make it either.... Sale, Abreu, Avi or Sale, Tanaka, Abreu
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My drunk idea right now is that youcall ihim Curtis Thomas "last name". Then he can be called "The Little Curt".
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Predict when the Sox announce Tanaka 's signing
ChiliIrishHammock24 replied to sin city sox fan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (Whitey @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 06:02 PM) My ideal scenario... Sox sign Tanaka then trade Sale. I get trading Sale when he is the only good piece on this team. But put Tanaka and Sale and Quintana in the same rotation and it should make this team a contender in 2015, maybe even 2014 if Detroit struggles. Adding Tanaka make me LESS inclined to want to trade Sale, not more. -
QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 10:23 PM) After receiving yet another raise today, I now officially make double what I did a year ago. It's weird. After having a budget always and forever, I just find myself with more cash than I could imagine spending. That's with a huge savings account. Adulthood. Awesome. Hey, so if you want to buy a poor just-out-of-college kid a PS4, that'd be pretty swell. Kthxbye.
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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 11:37 PM) Intriguing. The more I read and hear, the more I think the Sox have a legit shot at him. Part of me doesn't even want to be in it because I don't want this team to have to spend almost $200M on a pitcher for 7-8 years. Unless Hahn can get creative and do something like a 4 yr/$110M deal w/ a no trade clause in which the Sox then trade Tanaka for a king's ransom after the 3rd year. Or maybe like 8 yrs/$150M and give Tanaka and opt-out after 5 years. If the Sox SOMEHOW sign this guy, it will likely be with some sort of creative deal.
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QUOTE (hi8is @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 12:39 AM) I can also see us all over Bailey. We've been after him since... What... 2006? I hope the Reds then sign Jermaine Dye.
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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 08:51 PM) The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Ben Stiller) turned out be quite a bit better than I thought it would be. Just finished it and I thought it was awesome! Such a cool and fun movie. Highly recommend that movie and Lone Survivor right now.
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QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 08:05 PM) Came out of LF, got promoted today. Didn't think that was going to happen for another few months. Very nice. I take it you accepted it then? Hope you can get that pool now, Clark!
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QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 07:26 PM) Which trade do you guys prefer? Hector for Eaton or Reed for Davidson? I think the Eaton trade is a lot safer and there is a good chance we win that one. With the Davidson acquisition, I think it could easily go either way, but if we do end up winning that trade it'll be by a landslide. Well, I think the Hector/Eaton trade is low risk/mid reward for both teams. And the Reed/Davidson trade is mid risk/high reward.
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QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 04:28 PM) Pods was a no-defense, no-arm, no-power, little-walk, okay-hit, super-fast-until-he-got-hurt-all-the-time player. Eaton is a good defense, strong arm, better hit tool, many more walks, and just as promising but as-of-yet less productive runner. They're really not very similar. Pods should be seen as a floor of Eaton -- productive as a LH speed guy for a few years Closer to Darren Erstad than Scotty Pods.
