Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 12:19 PM) You mean someone like this? Yes, I agree. Yeah, I’d rather go with a guy like Morrison. More upside and a non-zero chance he can be a cheap, interim solution at DH while we wait for Sheets/Burger or see what we have in Nicky.

What time does this start?

I’d be indifferent about this. I have zero faith in Davidson and could care less if he gets more at-bats. I’d just prefer a guy with a bit more upside if we brought in a veteran DH.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:34 AM) You are way too optimistic about White Sox prospects. I just listed twelve guys for six relief roles and acknowledged there are other major league quality arms I’m ignoring. I fail to see how I’m being optimistic here. Burdi & Cease project as impact relievers. Filling out the rest is simply a numbers game.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 06:13 AM) But again you are assuming that most/all holes will be filled by prospects. When has this ever be done? Even the Cubs and Astros over the last few years have had to bring in high priced vets to shore up their roster. Why would the Sox be any different? Take a look at the Astros for example. Check their payroll in 2016 (similar to what I would expect from the Sox next year) and how quickly it ballooned by 2017/2018. And they don’t have a single player making anywhere near the cost of a guy like Machado. I am? My plan for the offense would be to extend Abreu, sign Machado for 3B, & sign a short-term place holder for LF or DH. That would be three veterans along Anderson. The prospects would include the 2016 #1 overall prospect at 2B, a 2017 top 5 overall prospect in RF, & a guy we just spent $50M on in CF. Those aren’t exactly high risk prospects and are very similar in caliber to the guys the Cubs & Astros relied on to form their core. The other LF/DH spot would hopefully be Nicky or another internal option (Cordell, Tilson, etc). Catcher is probably the biggest risk, but we should know more about Collins before we have to execute this plan. If necessary, I’d trade some prospect depth to fill one of those last two spots with an established player. Yes, I’m relying on a lot of prospects on the pitching side, but we should know more about Kopech, Giolito & Lopez after this season. Rodon will get a spot. I’d like to add a veteran impact reliever to anchor that group. Generally speaking, I think we have much more pitching depth than the Cubs & Astros and it’s timed much better in terms of two major waves hitting right on top of each other. It’s a numbers game and I think we have them.

QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 06:06 AM) One thing I’d love is for the Sox, who clearly are trying for this, nail down a lockdown bullpen with mostly internal candidates. Bullpen help expensive and longer term deals now, avoiding this contracts make splurging on a position player or two easier to handle. I personally hope we add one impact reliever and then go young with the rest of the pen. I think we have the pieces to accomplish that. Let’s say we sign Andrew Miller for example sake. We could be looking at a 2020 pen something like this: CL: Burdi SU: Miller SU: Cease MR: Fulmer MR: Bummer/Fry/Clarkin MR: Vierira/Hamilton/Burr LR: Stephens/Adams/Guerrero And I’m sure there are other potential pen guys I’m missing. But overall I feel pretty good about the depth we have in place on the pitching side and agree that will allow us to splurge on the positional side.

QUOTE (Sleepy Harold @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 12:23 AM) If it's all over print why even bother to try? That's a bad mindset to have. The Sox shouldn't "settle" for Mous now before even making an attempt/effort at one of the big guys in the coming off-season(s). That falls in line with the old way of thinking. Let the young guys play this year, see how they progress, evaluate where it's looking like we'll be weak, and move forward. Mous would be an improvement at 3B right now no doubt. I just don't understand the mindset of turning down the opportunity to sign a potential difference-making all around talent for a guy, while still better than average, just is nowhere near the level of a Machado/Arenado, even Donaldson on the back 9 of his career. Remain patient, let it play out with what we have this season. No need to rush into something, especially considering the draft implications it would have. It'd be different if the Sox were picking in the 20s of every round this year. As we all know, that's not the case. Bowing out of a mid low to mid 40s pick wouldn't be very smart. It's still important to build as much high quality talent & depth as we can at this point so when the time is right that depth can be used to fill necessary holes. Patience you must have, my young Padawan! Great post.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 11:58 PM) Guys, everything printed says Machado loves NY and will be a Yankee. I think you should forget about him. Hence Moustakas. Sox can get him for 4 years 60 million I bet. 15 million a year. Why not? We might improve a lot even this year cause Davidson could move to DH with Mous at 3B. Our infield actually would be very good as long as Mous is in shape. Before advanced stats went crazy, most folks would suggest Mous had a great great season last year. He has WS experience. I don't see the harm. I won't be doing handstands if we sign him but again, why not? Machado is not coming to the White Sox, geez. There's been no hint of that. Just to point this out since it doesn’t come up enough, but giving Moustakas a 4/$60M deal is effectively giving him a $20M AAV since next year doesn’t matter. Factor in losing the #45 pick & $2M in bonus pool and does they really seem like a steal to you guys? And it’s Sanchez who loses playing not Davidson, which is another negative.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 11:15 PM) A lot depends on Anderson and Rodon. If Moncada, Jimenez and Robert each fulfilled their potential, then we’re in really good shape. We still have concerns about catcher and 3B, and aren’t sure what to do with Abreu and Garcia...extending either will be another chunk of change, with Abreu maybe $65 million for three years. Realistically, going forward they have to look at 3b, catcher, an elite closer and a veteran #2 starting pitcher, because the odds of Giolito, Lopez, Kopech and Fulmer/Dunning all holding up as reliable starters isn’t that high. Sure, maybe we get that closer internally (Cease?)...maybe Collins develops as predicted when we drafted him, but a LOT of things have to go right to not have 3-4 critical roster issues heading into 2020. The Nats are likely to lose Harper, they will put everything they’ve got into retaining Rendon... We have a veteran catcher in Castillo controllable through 2020 along with a guy whose generally considered a top 10 catching prospect in Collins and a very interesting sleeper in Zavala. Right now I feel pretty good about our catching depth and we’ll know more about Collins by next offseason. Regardless, we can afford Machado and still address the other two or three critical roster issues. There should be enough to fill a couple holes via free agnecy and probably another one via trade. Machado only becomes an issue IMO if we have like six or seven key holes and really spread ourselves thin. For now I’m optimistic that won’t happen.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 10:12 PM) As the roster is currently constructed, they are likely in line for a payroll of around $60M in 2019. Yes, they lose Shields, Soria and Gonzalez but that is partially offset by pay raises for guys like Abreu, Garcia, Rodon, etc. Let’s say they sign a guy like Machado. Now you’re at a payroll of around $85M but you still have a number of holes to fill. Not every one of these prospects is going to be an above average regular and then you also have to consider that guys get hurt. So you could still be looking for a SP, RP, DH, and CF at a minimum even after signing Machado. Now what’s the cost to fill these holes in the FA market with above average regulars? Maybe another $40-50M? Your minuscule payroll is now in the $125-135M range. How high are the Sox willing to go in team payroll? If the answer is $140M+ then sure maybe they are players for one top tier guy but if they aren’t I don’t see how they’d be willing to spend that kind of money on a single player. The Sox went up to a $128M payroll back in 2011. They will most certainly get back up to that level with all the new revenue streams in place. I feel like a $150M or so payroll in a few years is fairly realistic. As for holes, I seriously doubt they add a SP for big money. Kopech, Giolito, & Lopez will all gets shots at proving whether or not they are major league caliber starters. We still have Rodon to fill a spot. Hansen could be up by the end of this year. Dunning isn’t too far off. Plus potential back-end guys like Stephens, Adams, & Guerrero will ready and waiting for a shot at a spot. I think they’ll stick with what they have internally for the rotation. CF will likely be one of internal guys (Leury, Tilson, Engel, Cordell) or a free agent on a short-term deal. They will not want to block Robert. We should be able to find a DH if needed at a reasonable rate. Yes, I definitely see us adding one impact reliever and that could be fairly pricey. But at this point in time (I know it’s stilll early), I’m not seeing all these holes that will have to be plugged long-term by expansive free agents. And we can always use some of our prospect depth to acquire more cost-controlled players to fill some gaps if necessary.

And just to add further reason why settling for Moustakas is a bad idea. Look at the Yankees & Astros’ lineups the next few years. The Yankees could have a lineup built around Judge, Stanton, Machado, & Sanchez plus potential young stars in Torres, Florial, etc. The Astros have Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Springer, a bunch of good complimentary players plus a potential future star in Tucker. These two teams are going to be stacked and we have to find a way to catch up. Moose just doesn’t move the needle enough. We really have to aim higher.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:36 PM) I just don’t understand why you are so confident the Sox will be willing to spend that kind of money on a single player. What about their past ownership decisions regarding payroll and FA signings suggests that they will be in play for these top tier guys? Am I missing something here? When have they ever had this much payroll flexibility along with such a promising young core? I was born in 1984 and I don’t recall many times. But the Sox have gone after big fish before. They were rumored to offer ARod a 10/$190M years ago. They went after Tanaka. I’m sure they’ve gone after other guys we don’t know about. I think they finally realize that going after B free agents isn’t a productive strategy. You’re better off signing high end talent with greater margin for error than the LaRoche’s of the world who can quciklg become replacement level. I also think Reinsdorf’s age plays a factor now. The reality is he may not have a lot of time left on this earth and if he wants one last championship he knows he needs to be aggressive.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:36 PM) They say things will be different and I believe them, but I will believe they will sign one of these guys when they actually sign him. No offense to anyone. As soon as they signed Robert for $50M and went into the penalty box I knew things would be different. I can understand being cautiously optimistic here, but the team literally has no financial commitments going forward and will have to spend their cash on something. A big free signing that signals the end of the rebuild and can be used to hype up interest in the team is no doubt the plan IMO.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:22 PM) Donaldson will be too old. Machado and Arenado will be too expensive. Sure, if ownership wants to spend the money, I'm certainly not going to complain and of course, they are better players, than Moustakas. However, that doesn't seem realistic, to me. Moreover, it would be nice to extend some of the young stars, rather than have to let a bunch of them go, when they hit free agency. They might not have that financial flexibility, if they spend $35 Million per year on a third baseman. Why is that "mind-boggling"? I do agree that giving up the draft pick is a big negative. Saying we’re better off with a left-handed bat over a top 5 player is mind-boggling. That’s basically like trading someone a $20 bill for four quarters because a vending machine doesn’t take big bills. If you’re saying we can’t afford that star player that’s a completely different story, although I don’t know you’d come to that conclusion. Let me ask you this, do you think a $50M payroll is realistic? Because we could extend Abreu and have the bulk of our core in place for that much or less. We are going to have a ton of money to play with over the next few years. These young players you mention won’t get expensive for another four to six years. What are we going to spend all this money on? Assuming the rebuild goes well, we may only have a handful of holes. Let’s spend our money on impact players and settle for some dude cause he simply plugs a hole. As for extending for our young stars, that shouldn’t even be a consideration at this point time. Why are we concerned about something six to eight years from now? We should do everything we can to maximize our 2019 to 2024 window. The reality is a lot of these guys are going to want to test the market. Once a guy like Moncada gets there, you better be prepared to give him a Machado level contract or he’s as good as gone. And you just said you don’t want to give Machado that contract right now despite having tons of financial flexibility. The good news is if were somehow able to add Machado, he’d most definitely have an opt-out after a few years and would likely exercise it, meaning his downside years wouldn’t probably not impact us anyways.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:13 PM) We’ll see. Odds are 50/50 that Rendon or Arenado stay put...so that quickly cuts the realistic list back down to Donaldson and one of those two. Do the Sox have the will to win a bidding war in the $150+ million range? We can argue if Moustakas is a 2-3 or 3-4. His 2015 and 2016 extrapolated/abbreviated numbers would argue the latter. If he was 32, I wouldn’t be arguing for him. I’d also argue the odds are greater for Moustakas than Avi Garcia in 2018, for example...especially Moustakas playing in a hitter friendly park for the first time. Where the hell do you come up with these odds? I have never seen a poster throw out random probabilites more than you. Right now, all four of those guys are within two years of free agency. Odds are they will wait it out for a big payday if they haven’t settled already by this point. Anything can happen, but I’d wager none of these guys resign with their current clubs prior to testing the market. And yes, the Sox with a $50M payroll will have TWTW a bidding war in the $150M. For f***s same, they just spent $50M on an amateur free agent. I’m certain they plan on going to the $300M+ range for Machado. Probably won’t be enough to outbid the Yankees, but once they’re out of the picture we’re as dangerous as anyone. People really need to accept the fact that the Sox are going to spend like crazy over the next two years assuming no stumbling blocks with the rebuild and that the old way of doing things will no longer be relevant.

I f***ing hate the NRA.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 08:09 PM) They need a respectable left handed bat, more than they need a top 5 player. This is absolutely mind-boggling to me. You’d actually pass a significantly better player because of a desire to have a more balance lineup in terms of handedness. You realize that Machado & Donaldson are just as good against RHP (if not better) than Moustakas is right? But they bring much overall ability to the table. Regardless, focusing on building the most perfectly balanced lineup this early into a rebuild is a dangerous game. The goal first & foremost should be talent accumulation (preferably impact talent) and worrying about it all fits together later on.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 07:38 PM) If our sights for every position are a Top 5 player, we’re also in trouble. He’s a good player. And he’s still in his prime, and LH. How are we in trouble by targeting high-end talent? As has been mentioned repeatedly, we can go get a player like Moustakas if we miss out on those top guys when said player is needed. We don’t have to settle right now. I think some of you guys are so used to the old way of doing things that you honestly think Moose as good as it gets. There are four elite 3B options in Machado, Donaldson, Arenado, & Rendon hitting free agency over the next two years. We will have as much financial flexibility as anyone to add one of these guys. While I think Machado is a long-shot because of the Yankees, I think any of the other three are realistic possibilities. And if we really want to win a World Series, we should be doing everything in our power to add a star, 5+ WAR player at 3B (our biggest area of weakness) rather settle for a 2 to 3 WAR guy that will cost us $12M to $16M in wasted season plus a pick.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 07:25 PM) Now we are back to guys in their 30’s again. Longoria has been very solid the last four years, but he’s owed $81 million for age 32-36. Moustakas is only 29. It’s just very rare you can get a really good player not approaching his down curve or with a very expensive contract. But he’s not a really good player. That’s the point. Unless his defense rebounds, he’s really an average player. And if we’re unwilling to consider players in their 30’s to fill any roles our rebuild is going to be in trouble.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 06:34 PM) So, other than Machado (who might not even want to play 3b), Donaldson, Rendon and Arenado, who’s really out there? At least two of those guys will probably re-sign, so you’re back in the box of chasing 33-37 year old Josh Donaldson with $140-165 million over four years. Is Burger likely to be a 3 war third baseman in 2020? Odds, knowing his defensive issues...? Why are these five along with Moustakas the only five options? Why can’t we trade for someone when the time is right if necessary. The Giants just acquired a very comparable player in Longoria. I could see Kyle Seager becoming available at some point in the near future. These markets are dynamic and with the amount of teams rebuilding players who were once considered off-limits may become available.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:39 PM) Dunkirk was extremely well made, but as a narrative, it was far too lacking to consider "great." It had almost zero character development. This 100%. Pretty disappointed with this year’s nominees in general. I still have three to go, but pretty weak group after Get Out & The Post IMO. The Big Sick is better than all of them and totally got snubbed.

If you draft Madrigal, where do you slot him eventually? Normally I wouldn’t ask the question, but he should come relatively quick.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 05:04 PM) Regarding this argument that it is not meaningful to evaluate stats, if any portion is excluded: When you have consistent statistical data, with a short period, which is significantly divergent, I think that it's fair to consider that data as an aberration. It's a long season. If a hitter hit .300 every month, but one, in which he hit .200, what would you conclude? Going forward, would you anticipate that he would hit around .300 .200, or the average of his entire season? I would interpret that data as indicative of a .300 hitter, who had a really bad month. The question then becomes, what caused that aberration? Was he hurt, or was it attributed to something else? To put it another way, I would take that good production in 5 of the 6 months, and hope that the rest of the team could pick up the slack, during that one bad month, if it should recur. The more consistent the production, and the greater the divergence of the one exception, the less significance one could reasonably attach to that aberration. I’ve got great respect for you Lillian so please don’t take this the wrong way, but do you realize how variable & random baseball actually is? Every player is going to have good months & bad months. Occasionally a bad month could indicate an injury or something, but 95% of the time it’s just normal variation. You are really overthinking it here or are simply looking for a reason to justify a move you want to happen.

It's absolutely disgusting that someone would propose arming teachers would actually solve this problem. A couple teachers armed with handguns are going to do jack s*** against some psychopath who has spent months planning, has an AR-15 w/ high capacity clips, possibly wearing body armor, & with the element of surprise. The only thing those teachers might do is slow the shooter down slightly at the cost of their lives, but that's obviously not a solution and doesn't take into the account the numerous other negatives arming teachers would result in. One of the single dumbest ideas I have ever heard.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 05:29 AM) If you look at Moustakas' month, by month stats, over the last 3 years, you might decide that he is a better hitter than Todd Frazier has been, since coming to the A.L. What do you mean “month by month stats”? And I wasn’t arguing that Frazier was a better hitter. My point was that Frazier has the better track record and is coming off a comparable season (if not better) to Moose. The market deemed Todd to be worth 2/$17M. Sure, Moose deserves more money than Todd for several reasons (age being a major factor), but the question is how much more? Throw in losing a draft pick and I just don’t see Moustakas at a 5/$70M deal or so being such a steal. The fact no one has snagged him up yet is telling IMO.