Chicago White Sox

Four top 100 prospects, wonder who is #4 with Rodon, Anderson, & Montas. Basically has to be Hawkins, Micah Johnson, or Danish.

Caulfield, I agree that contact is very important and often undervalued by advanced metrics. I say it all the time, but context does matter and anything that minimizes the deviations in run production in relation to the team's average output will help them win more games in the long-run, and is especially valuable in October when games are generally lower scoring. Linear weights simply can't value how the distribution of run production actually impacts winning games, it only considers gross output.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 10, 2014 -> 04:14 PM) 2.8 WAR for his career with the Sox vs $12.6 million. Last I saw that $/WAR was rated about $5 million per win, so even by that, the Sox are ahead. No offense, but this is a horrible way to look at this. The fact is Viciedo has been a below average player for us over the course of his career. Just because we paid him slightly less than the open market rate for WAR doesn't negate the fact he provided us with below average production. At the end of the day, wasting precious roster spots on below average players because they technically provided you with a small amount of surplus value is always going to be a losing proposition.

Puig isn't happening, as he'd cost Quintana or the entire farm. Either way, our team won't be any better in the long-run. CarGo makes some sense. People will highlight his home-away splits, but don't most Rockies' players have this issue? Larry Walker's career OPS was 177 points higher at home, Helton's was 166 points higher. Maybe I'm wrong, but I know I've read some theories on a hangover effect, implying most of these guys over-adjust to playing 81 games at Coors. Either way, CarGo has signicant talent or at least did before he was injured. His contract reduces the talent it would cost to acquire him and if we could use him as part of a rotating DH, I think he'd make a ton of sense for us.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Oct 9, 2014 -> 05:34 PM) He is very young but I don't think we see Anderson for a while. He has really struggled defensively at SS in the minors so far. He is way behind Semien and we saw his stuggles defensively when he was promoted. Hopefully the Sox have someone to work w Semien and Anderson defensively because both look like solid hitters. I don't see Anderson spending more than one full season at AA and one at AAA. IMO, he's either ready by Opening Day 2017 or he has busted. If defense is a concern, it's possible he's moved to CF or 2B prior to then, but they won't keep him in the minors much longer for defense alone.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Oct 9, 2014 -> 03:55 PM) I would give Adam an extension. Another player I would that I might get heat for is Alexei Ramirez. I'd give him a 2 year extension because I really feel that he's a player that if we want to contend, we need to have. Plus, I love Alexei. I would hear offers about him though, and if one blew me away, then I would do it if I were Hahn. But that's my 2 cents. The Sox have a 5 year board and my guess is it goes like this for SS: 2015: Alexei (under contract) 2016: Alexei (option year) 2017: Tim Anderson 2018: Tim Anderson 2019: Tim Anderson Honestly, I think 2016 is possible for Anderson if he has big 2015. So basically what I'm saying is extending Alexei doesn't make sense even when ignoring his age.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Oct 9, 2014 -> 04:13 AM) What if the Sox FO feels Rodon can slide into Q's spot and the team not miss a beat? That's how we could get a superstar hitter and still contend. Rodon could be that good in their eyes. We don't have quality #3 & #4 starters, so we're not contending without both Quintana & Rodon.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 6, 2014 -> 07:12 PM) Except we said this about Paulino and our veteran pen guys eight months ago. No way on masterson unless we can control him going into 2016 if he pitches at his previous level again. If he pitches at his previous level and then leaves, we most likely are getting a compensation pick as a result.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 6, 2014 -> 07:02 AM) That's pretty much EXACTLY what I suggested in my post, except adding Viciedo, lol. Now we're just arguing semantics. You said Chris Beck, one or two fliers, & Tank for good measure. Beck isn't a top 10 prospect, and I wouldn't consider the fliers to be top 15 guys when Beck barely makes the cut. When I say three guys in the 6 to 15 range I'm talking Montas or Danish as the headliner, with two other guys like Sanchez & Ravelo (or even Beck) included. That's a significantly better package than what you proposed.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 4, 2014 -> 02:16 PM) You are right about Soria. Looks like he's burned out the arm. He's no good anymore. I think his arm has lost its magic.

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Oct 4, 2014 -> 10:56 AM) I like the metric, although I am a huge proponent of sabremetrics, I think that's it's something that you should use to get an idea of a player's value on the field rather than taking it fave value. Defensive metrics are still a work in progress. However I am not surprised by this, the Sox are horrible defensively and that is a area that needs to be improved this off season. I still stick to my idea about moving Garcia to 1B and Abreu to DH. Garcia leaves much to be desired on the field and I think he could be a plus defender at 1B. What makes you think Garcia would be a plus defender at 1B?

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Oct 4, 2014 -> 02:29 AM) What do you think it would take to get a guy like Hayward? A down season and one year remaining til free agency should make Atlanta's expectations reasonable. Of course I would only do it if I were confident in getting Hayward extended. Hayward would bring great defense to RF and move Avi to LF where he's better suited anyway. I think he'll be too expensive, as his "down" year was still incredibly valuable due to his defense (if you believe those metrics). I'd much rather target Jay Bruce, because his price will definitely be down and he offers three years of team control vs. one. Now, if Heyward does reach free agency next offseason, he's one of the few free agents I'd spend a boatload of money on.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Oct 3, 2014 -> 06:24 PM) A question about Viciedo's contract: How did he end up with the same salary in 2013 and 2014? Doesn't that virtually never happen in arbitration? Even if a player absolutely sucks, they generally get some kind of raise if they're actually put in the lineup to play the games. If I remember correctly, he was in the last year of his major league deal in 2013. However, this past year he was not yet arbitration eligible, which means we could pay him whatever we want as long as we didn't reduce his salary by more than 20%.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 3, 2014 -> 08:24 PM) I feel like if they can solve one of these major issues through trade they can pull of the rest in a sensible way (and don't have to lose their 1st round pick if they sign someone), but the key step is they need a major trade to fill 1+ of these holes. Call me confused. First, our 1st round pick is protected. Second, how is filling a major need by trade going to be more sensible than losing a 2nd round draft pick? We're talking about giving up partially developed prospects or even major league players vs. an unknown commodity years away from contributing. Unless of course you're talking about taking on a big contract that doesn't require much of a return. I agree that filling all our needs in free agency is unrealistic, but all else being equal, I'd much rather use our cash to fill needs than our limited minor league talent.

I think some people on this board are really over-valuing draft picks. 1st rounders are obviously important, but losing 2nd & 3rd round picks should never sway you from adding an impact player, at least if you think you're team is close to being competitive. And I get you also lose their bonus allotment, but when you're trying to add outside talent and the trade-off is losing a pick/bonus or trading away partially developed prospects, I'm going to sacrifice the unknown commodity first every single time.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 01:53 PM) I think anybody saying that Adam Dunn was a horrible hitter for the White Sox is completely mistaken, but he definitely didn't live up to lofty expectations. He was a horrible hitter one year and about exactly what you could expect out of him the other 3. I wish him well, hopefully he keeps winning Oscars. Adam Dunn was a 135 wRC+ hitter when we got him and he was about a 110 wRC+ hitter for us his last three years. Even completely ignoring 2011, I was expecting a lot more out of him.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 11:54 AM) To come to eminors defense he did say Beck, Viciedo, and a couple fliers for Bruce, not just Beck. I think the deal he actually proposed, depending on your definition of "Fliers" is, is actually pretty reasonable. Perhaps something like Beck. Viciedo, Saladino, and Andrew Mitchell. Or lesser versions of Saladino/Mitchell Saladino & Mitchell have almost no value. Viciedo isn't worth much either. I don't see much of a difference between Chris Beck (who isn't that good of a prospect in the first place) and Chris Beck plus some garbage. Again, this is a guy who would have cost at least top three 5 prospects a year ago. He won't be available that cheaply when his contact is pretty reasonable.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 07:58 AM) You haven't added why I should have confidence that a knee injury that hurt him the entire season will not be a future issue. Because he'll actually have a full off-season to rehab it. I'm sure patc could offer some expertise here, but everything I read said a full recovery is expected. Balta, I really wish the other 29 GMs had the same tolerance for risk as you. "Oh s***, my 27 year old star outfielder had a horrible, injury-plagued season, I better trade him for Chris Beck & salary relief ASAP! He'll never bounce back from his negative WAR season!" Again, Bruce is a perfect buy-low candidate, but Jocketty isn't going to overreact to one bad season and just give him away. We have to be prepared to give up some talent if we really want to get him. Salary relief and a C+ prospect won't cut it.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 12:09 AM) So you'd give up something like Montas/Danish, Ravelo, and Sanchez for him? Because I sure as hell wouldn't. Our system is no longer so atrocious that our 6-15 guys are worthless. Jay Bruce from 2010 to 2013: WAR: 4.9, 3.0, 2.1, 4.0 (avg. = 3.5) wRC+: 124, 119, 120, 117 (avg. = 120) He turns 28 on Opening Day next year, bats left-handed, and is under-team control for the next three years at $12.5M/per. One horrific season, almost certainly due to a knee injury, won't change my expectations of him over the next three years. I'm confident he'll be a 3 to 4 WAR player during that time. Bruce is a guy that would normally cost you three top 5 prospects to obtain, so if I can get him for three guys in our 6 to 15 range you can bet I'll make that deal. I'd obviously like to hold onto Montas and Danish if possible, but they aren't going to hold me back from Jay Bruce if the other two pieces I'm giving up are Sanchez & Ravelo, neither who has star upside. Your deal is a no-brainer IMO.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 30, 2014 -> 07:24 PM) I don't see why it's impossible to discount that. After all, you discounted the words "or 2012" in my comment. Come on Balta, Bruce had a horrible 2014 season, but do you actually think he forgot how to play baseball or suddenly aged seven years? From what I've read he was never 100% this season due to a knee injury. As long as he can fully recover in the offseason, I see very little reason expect much less than his pre-2014 performance. If so, trading him for Chris Beck would be a firable offense IMO. If I'm Hahn, Bruce is definitely a guy I go hard after. I'd be willing to give up three guys in the 6 to 15 range for him without hesitation. Not sure that will be enough, but I think it's worth a shot in the off-chance the Reds are desperate to rebuild and no-one is offering more.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Sep 30, 2014 -> 06:39 PM) OJT? On job training?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 30, 2014 -> 05:41 PM) After what he did this year, that would be like us laughing at an offer of Chris Beck for Adam Dunn after his 2011 or 2012 seasons. I don't think that would be laughable if the team giving that guy up took the salary on. So a 31 year old DH coming off a -3.0 WAR season with $42M in remaining payroll commitments is the same as a 27 year old RF coming off a -1.1 WAR with $25.5M in remaining payroll commitments?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 30, 2014 -> 10:31 AM) This is more "pie in the sky" than usual for me, but what about Jay Bruce? Reasoning: Reds are looking like a disaster now and are expected to start a rebuild, beginning with unloading their pending FA starters. Bruce is under contract, but he still costs a significant amount of money and is coming off a terrible year. So he could be available. Why would we want him? He is one year removed from being good and is still currently left-handed. He's a good defender. He is under contract for two more years at $12m per year with an option on the end. I think 2/24 is more in line with the risk I'd be willing to take on a NOW type of bat, and if it worked out, we could extend him or just let him go to free agency. What would he cost? Tough to say. He obviously has upside and a good track record, but holy crap did he have a terrible, terrible year in 2014. How much did that sink him? I think I'd be willing to send a mid-top ten type of prospect (Chris Beck?) along with a flier or two and throw in Viciedo for good measure if they want him. I don't know if that would get it done or get me laughed off the phone, honestly. I mean he was worth -1.1 fWAR in 2014, lol. Chris Beck for Jay Bruce?? Walt Jocketty might actually did from laughter from that offer. Having said that, I would love to target Bruce and would easily give up several prospects in the 6 to 15 range to get him.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 29, 2014 -> 06:06 PM) Q: If Ozzie signed a document saying he would pay a $1 million fine if he opens his mouth about any issue besides baseball would you accept him back on a one-year deal, to be renegotiated after each season he's with the Sox? f*** no.

I think Hahn deserves an A for Abreu alone. Think about how bad our offense would be right now without him. We'd basically be completely f***ed. He filled our biggest hole in the entire organization (impact bat) and did so relatively cheaply. The rest of his moves are simply icing on the cake. Now, obviously it wasn't a perfect offseason, but his hits far, far exceeded his misses and he's moved us in the right direction.