Chicago White Sox

I’m pricing Cease like a #2 starter. The ask if Cease just repeated his 2022 season would be substantially higher.

I think your valuations are completely out of whack if you think that’s the package Gilbert would command. And Burnes may be slightly less expensive, than Cease but my guess is it wouldn’t be substantially less.

I’ve never met another person whose entire evaluation is to take the previous season and assume that continues on forever. I also don’t know how anyone could be using ERA as their primary pitching metric in this day & age. Secondly, what is a top 100 prospect worth? Are they all worth the same and if your answer is no, then what type of top 100 prospect is Cease worth? Also, why was Giolito with 2 months of control worth a legit 50 FV prospect, but two years of Cease plus a potential compensation pick is worth the same? If you say it’s because of the “market”, who are all these free agent SPs with legit TOR ceilings that will be affordable to teams like the Orioles? Finally, how do you know there wasn’t a strong deal last year? There are rumors that Hahn was asking for Jackson Holiday until very late in the process (i.e. not serious negotiating). Perhaps Elias made an offer that would be to Getz’s liking now? It wouldn’t be the first time two teams couldn’t agree to a trade at the deadline and then for it to happen in the off-season (Sale, Lynn, etc).

You don’t think Baltimore specifically will or just don’t think he’s worth that?

Why not both? Kjerstad + Ortiz + Povich for Cease. Who says no?

That Bartolo guy is a fraud in all honesty, but I’m sure everyone on the major league roster is available for the right price. What I don’t get is who would want to acquire Eloy & Colas in the same package (don’t think Moncada is tradable without eating money). I do hope they’re pursing Kjerstad in a Cease trade though. Damn would it be nice to have a young LH power hitter to build this lineup around along with Montgomery.

I think you wait and see how a Cease trade plays out. Might get another middle infielder there.

Soroka is a free agent after the 2024 season. Shewmake has two options left.

He’s been bad for so long I just don’t see the point.

Or Padres. Feels like those orgs are always doing these type of deals.

Yeah, he’s not a bad throw in, but ultimately is a 24 year old lottery ticket and in my view is a much lesser consideration when evaluating the trade than the four guys who are immediately going on the 40 man roster.

Go sign Woodruff to an incentive laden two year deal. I know shoulder injuries can be death blows, but given where we’re at it’s 100% worth a shot IMO.

I’m ok with trading Eloy if we can something of value in return. The reality is he has talent, but I just don’t think he has the drive to be great and will likely continue to underperform due to low effort and his propensity for injuries. That being said, I’d be curious how he’d perform with more aggressive, vocal leaders in the clubhouse. I feel like losing Jose was bad for him. All that being said, I do think he is as good as gone. Getz’ immediate goal seems to be ridding the roster of all the guys who under-performed under the previous regime and build a low ceiling, plus defense roster. As such, I see Eloy getting traded for a defensive oriented RF with some power potential but very questionable bat to ball abilities and/or plate discipline.

Having had some time to think through this trade, it’s more of a fun one than an actual good one. Soroka & Lopez were both getting non-tendered and the former only has one year of control left. Shuster has been bad since reaching AAA with a fastball and broader pitch mix currently unable to get hitters outs. Shewmake is a middle infielder who is not elite defensively and hasn’t had a league average offensive season since A ball. To me, this trade pretty much comes down to Shuster and whether Bannister / Katz can fix something with him to make him a viable #4/#5 starter. I guess if Soroka were to return to form there might be some value to extract there, but it’s greatly capped given his lack of control. Lopez is a solid backup infielder who can start while we wait for Colson, but not really a needle mover. No idea what Shewmake offers this 40 man roster. And I find it laughable for Getz to call this trade “foundational”. This trade helps our depth in 2024, but most of these guys could be off the 40 man roster as next year.

I’d wager significant money that Eloy gets traded.

Remember, once we trade Cease we basically have 1/2 of a SP. While I’m expecting a pretty large payroll reduction, I still envision at least one, if not two, ~$10M or so free agent signings..

Hypothetically, if you could get Kjerstad, Ortiz, plus something else for Cease, you could realistically be looking at this lineup for 2025: Benintendi, LF* Robert, CF Jimenez, DH Kjerstad, RF* Vaughn, 1B Montgomery, SS* Ramos, 3B Quero, CA# Ortiz, 2B That’s at least a lineup with potential and one you likely could supplement with a free agent signing if Eloy/Vaughn aren’t getting the job done.

You’d make a great lawyer with the way you’re able to spin things to suit whatever your argument is. 4th best starter? That article clearly states “this isn’t a strict ranking of players’ trade value, nor is it solely about likelihood of being moved.” If you can’t see that two years of cheap Dylan Cease ($10M in 2024) is worth more than one year of Glasnow ($25M), Burnes ($15M), and Bieber ($12M), then there isn’t a second wasting time with you on this. And not all teams can just go buy TOR starters in free agency because 1) There aren’t many of them and 2) They are incredibly expensive. The Orioles simply can’t leverage free agency to get what they need this year. The Cardinals need multiple starters of impact and can’t do it all in free agency. The Phillies are right up against the luxury tax and may not be able to blow past that with an expensive long-term deal. Cease is a unique asset in this market and there will be many suitors. You’re once again underestimating the TOR SP market.

JFC fire this clown immediately. And I know this is all secondhand through a couple of of podcast hosts, but the on-field product, the lack of accountability for vets vs. rookies, and general lack of urgency last year all make this way too believable.

That’s all fair, but holding onto to Cease as part of a plan to lose 90 games rather than 100 will cost us greatly beyond 2024. Next year will almost certainly be a disaster no matter what we do and I’d rather suffer a bit in hopes of having a team that can win a shitty AL Central by 2026.

Agreed. There will be teams that can’t afford the couple of high-end options in free agency, which will force them to the trade market if they want a potential impact SP.

I think we only see Mena, Eder, & Thompson protected today. The first two are obvious, but I do think a team could grab Thompson in the Rule 5 and he may be a kid that Bannister would like to get his hands on.

Definitely grab this kid.

2024 simply doesn’t matter. This team has no chance of competing next year and you have to do what’s best for 2025 forward.

Given the current state of the organization, I think it would be really risky to hold Cease until the deadline. One serious shoulder or elbow injury and you’re left with nothing.