Chicago White Sox

Maybe at a $10M AAV? No NL team is signing him to a 4/$68M contract.

They wanted to trade for him last year with two years in control when competing was going to be a long-shot. Right or wrong, I could definitely see us revisiting that.

No one is screaming the market will work in our favor. But to say the market dynamics are vastly different this year and the Yankees are automatically going to spend hog wild and there is no hope for us is absurd. The Yankees could afford a $300M+ payroll every single year and don’t. Why is that? And last year they could have added Machado or Corbin and didn’t. I still think they’re a huge threat for the top guys, but they aren’t the free agent monster they were under the previous Steinbrenner.

Chapman leaving would give them $17.5M to worth with, but that’s also a pretty big hole to fill. Encarnacion isn’t actual savings for them.

Why are you only looking at the expiring dollars and not the increases? And the Yankees only paid $7.5M of his contract last year and are on the book for a $5M buyout, so even if you want to go down your ridiculous path that’s only worth $2.5M in savings this year.

The Yankees have an estimated payroll of $201M with no major additions. Those guys coming off the books are simply paying for salary increases on their existing core of talent.

Andrew Friedman has signed as many $100M+ contracts as the White Sox and both of these teams were heavily rumored to be players in last year’s market.

If he opts-out, JDM’s market will literally be 3 or 4 teams and my guess is Boras will be eager to get something ASAP. This won’t drag out like the Machado process IMO.

Why do you think JDM can play RF and be a 3 win player? In 2016, he played a ton of RF and was worth 2.3 fWAR. His offensive & defensive stats were more or less the same as last year. The difference is he’s now 32 and only going to worse. Additionally, there are plenty of stories out there that he’s unable to play the field on a daily basis and stay healthy. No NL team in their right mind is going to sign him to play RF for the next three or four years without having the DH spot as an insurance policy. It’s simply not going to happen.

Who are all these teams who’ve come out and said they’re going to be big spenders? I’ve seen multiple teams say they won’t be spending big, but nothing of the former if you’re referring to teams like the Yankees & Dodgers.

Agree to disagree. Corbin was the 5th ranked pitcher in 2018 and flashed ace potential with his increased slider usage. He was without question an A tier free agent and was compensated almost exactly as expected (MLBTR predicted a 6/$129M contract). Wheeler is definitely a tier below where Corbin was last offseason IMO and I say that as a huge Wheeler fan.

What’s prompting this statement? If we should learn anything from last year’s class, only the tier one guys get tier one contracts in today’s environment. There were only three contracts above $100M last season and those were the only three above four years in length. Yes, it was a shitty class in many ways, but despite that supply constraint teams did NOT overpay for B tier free agents.

So nothing over $100M then? That’s confirms my point, Friedman has run out huge payrolls, but has never signed anyone to a massive contract before. I think the Angels are a far bigger threat to land Cole than the Dodgers.

Just out of curiosity, but what big contracts has Andrew Friedman signed off on as GM of the Dodgers?

Sure, teams will pay the luxury tax, but they won’t do it for too many years in a row and to my knowledge no team has ever gone above the second penalty threshold. And as much as the Yankees can afford to pay the tax, it makes owners effectively pay more for free agents and historically they don’t like doing that. The luxury tax (at least the second threshold) has basically served as a defacto salary cap.

There is zero chance any NL team signs him unless they know the DH is coming to both leagues soon.

I definitely could see something like that with both us and the Rangers.

Yup, definitely agree. I could actually see a JDM signing paired with a Joc trade (assuming the price is reasonable). It really seems like something Hahn/KW would do.

I have never seen a free agent market in my lifetime where “teams were not in the market to pay for starting pitching”. Teams are always in need of starting pitching and the TOR free agents are always in high demand. The difference is teams are much smarter nowadays and more often than not will not go over their internal valuation for a guy. I’m probably the biggest fan of Wheeler on this board, but no way anyone goes over five years with him and that caps his value in the $100M to $125M range.

Being able to fit a massive contract into your budget for 2020 is much different than fitting it in for the next five to seven years. How do those teams all look a few years from now? My guess is the Yankees & Dodgers be quickly be approaching the luxury tax.

So much for you being optimistic! Looks like you lasted a robust 8 hours!

I think you’re taking a major leap with this assumption. His 2019 season was still amongst the best in baseball from a quality of contact perspective and in line with 2015 & 2016 seasons. Guys do have career years and more likely than not that’s simply what happened in 2017 & 2018. I’d wager large sums of money he puts up a wRC+ of 130+ over each of the next three seasons.

But why is he getting more than Corbin did a year ago when there were literally no other high end pitching options available?

Great post Caulfield and spot on with your assessment of Wheeler’s market.

Absolutely no chances Wheeler is getting 6/$175M. Patrick Corbin got 6/$140M in a highly back-loaded deal and is left-handed and flashed more dominance. I think Wheeler ultimately gets around 5/$100M.