Eminor3rd

Yes, this is exactly what I was saying in that other thread. Market forces have created opportunity.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 10:05 AM) Agreed. Or you hold. The Sox continue to hold the cards. Remember: Chris Sale - 3 years; Jose Quintana - 4 years. It isn't that simple, though. You have to consider injury risk, the depreciation of value as each year goes away, and then you also have to look ahead a bit at your own chances to compete and the market's opportunities to sell.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 09:52 AM) Missing on this deal could literally cost the team a decade. Yes, they need an overpay. They need a grand slam home run of a deal. I cannot disagree more. If your strategy is based on taking advantage of a team making an irrational decision, your strategy is bad. If the alternative is to let the talent rot and net nothing, well THAT is the type of thing that sets the franchise back a decade. Taking advantage of market forces to maximize a return by selling at the right time makes sense. The difference between that and stubbornly waiting for someone to give you something EVERYONE knows you won't is huge.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 09:50 AM) The Sox do hold the cards here. I don't think they're taking anything less than an overpay, and they shouldn't. In a market as depressed as this one, I don't think they need to hold out for an 'overpay.' They just need to not settle for an 'underpay.' What they need, my friends, is a 'pay.'

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 6, 2016 -> 05:44 PM) Hard to overpay for Trout. And if you think getting Trout back for sale is too little, you will not be happy with any return.

QUOTE (Tony @ Nov 6, 2016 -> 03:40 PM) Of course it makes sense. It's made sense for 3 years. Them being "Open for Business" is one thing. But what does it matter if your doors are open but you're charging $25 per drink. You'll be out of business soon. The first time I read someone around here say "Yeah, that's less than I think he was worth, but at least we were willing to sell him," I'll concede that the board would be happy with a strategy that ignores the reality of the market.

It makes sense. THis is what many of us have been saying. The market sets the direction. First you must feel out the market.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 4, 2016 -> 03:04 PM) The thing is that Anderson and Morneau both produced beyond expectations and they weren't even close to the Indians without 3 of their Top 7-8 players. 1. Lindor 2. Kluber 3. Brantley 4. Miller 5. Kipnis 6. Salazar 7. Allen 8. Carrasco 9. Carlos Santana 10. Jose Ramirez Not sure what the point is here, friend

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 4, 2016 -> 02:35 PM) If it were me, I would sign Avila and Navarro and platoon them, and then add a good defensive CFer like Austin Jackson... Haha exactly! Exactly. That's basically the extent of what the Sox can do with free agency if they decide to stay competitive. And you'd need some serious shrewdness to do something substantial via trade without totally gutting the system.

QUOTE (SonofaRoache @ Nov 4, 2016 -> 01:18 PM) For one we have to draft better when it comes to offensive performance. We seem to only hit with pitchers and then trade them away for hitters. We can sign a Cespesdes or Gordon but we have to pay. If we want talent and to win I'd rather spend a few extra mil on them than a Shields, Laroche or Dunn. We don't need elite talent to win but the talent has to be legit and not a castoff some other team doesn't want. But as I said I am not concerned with the construction of this team as is. This team can win a lot of games if they find a C, CF, and bull pen guy worth a crap. They don't have to be all-stars just competent. Right, most of us agree that we could use Cespedes -- but if we weren't willing to pay for him when he was desperate and his market was suppressed, what makes you think we'll pay for him now that he's older and his market is about to be massively inflated? And, conceptually, we all agree we need a C, a CF, and a bullpen arm or two -- but that's kind of the point of this thread: look at that list and see if you can find those guys. Catchers Alex Avila (30) Drew Butera (34) Jason Castro (30) Hank Conger (29) A.J. Ellis (36) Ryan Hanigan (36) Nick Hundley (33) Chris Iannetta (34) Jeff Mathis (34) Dioner Navarro (33) A.J. Pierzynski (40) Wilson Ramos (29) Wilin Rosario (28) Carlos Ruiz (38) — $4.5MM club option with a $500K buyout Jarrod Saltalamacchia (32) Geovany Soto (34) Kurt Suzuki (33) Matt Wieters (31) It's Wilson Ramos, who is coming off a serious injury, and then nothing. Which means Ramos is going to make way too much. Center Fielders Peter Bourjos (30) Michael Bourn (34) Yoenis Cespedes (31) — can opt out of remaining two years, $47.5MM on current contract Coco Crisp (37) Rajai Davis (36) Ian Desmond (31) Dexter Fowler (31) Carlos Gomez (31) Tyler Holt (28) Austin Jackson (30) Jon Jay (32) Alex Presley (31) Logan Schafer (30) Drew Stubbs (32) Total jack. Cespedes isn't even a CF. Ian Desmond?

QUOTE (SonofaRoache @ Nov 4, 2016 -> 09:00 AM) Lol at people who think the Sox will do a full rebuild. They are going to rebuild and try to contend at the same time. Meaning they will get the young guys some time and keep a lot of vets. The Cubs winning the WS has all but assured this. The problem isn't that we need to rebuild, we just need to stop bringing in "bargains" hoping to get prime years out of them. Those are the mistakes we keep making that screws us over. Bring in legit talent and a legit 5th starter option and we'll be okay. With what, though? That's the thing. What do you use to "bring in legit talent?" After last offseason, there is no reason to believe the Sox will ever pay for a top free agent. They're going from an extreme buyer's market with all the best pieces available in areas of need to an extreme seller's market without any true solutions in positions of need. There's just no f'ing way. And, I hate to say it, but as far as the farm system has come, it simply isn't good enough to be able to outbid other contenders on "legit talent" via trade. If a truly "prime" talent is available, someone else is going to have more to give up. Sure, you may be able to come up with an offer that sounds plausible, but you can't ever come up with one that will end up being the best offer that a team receives. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GZ9...QPwuVrk/pubhtml

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 4, 2016 -> 08:50 AM) pls subdivide by hero status thx

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/2016...ree-agents.html Here's a list organized by position. It's a garbage list. The worst I can remember. For some reason I think we will sign Rajai Davis or Chris Coghlan, lol.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 3, 2016 -> 01:14 PM) Best farm systems ever? KC had to be bad a long, long time and had a lot of misfires in their drafts. KC didn't have to be bad for 30 years to develop the system, they just kept screwing it up. They "had" to be bad for like 3-4 years to net their current product.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Nov 1, 2016 -> 01:33 AM) Poop.

I wrote the article about the Avila/Navarro pairing. I still stand by the fact that it looked good on paper. It always had risk; everything does. I am also liberally on record as being confused and frustrated that they didn't do enough heading into the season. Those things aren't mutually exclusive.

Post-hype sleeper

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 27, 2016 -> 10:44 PM) Just think if Avi could hit 30 homers.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Oct 27, 2016 -> 01:58 PM) Hope it goes to Eaton, predict it goes to Betts. Same.

poop

QUOTE (Carpe Diem @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 12:20 AM) The stadium is located in a terrible part of town and lacks originality. Build a stadium (from their own pockets) on the Lake with the Skyline featured as well and I will bet anything attendance BOOMS. Oh, is that all? Should be a simple change, lol.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Oct 21, 2016 -> 09:24 PM) And thanks for this. Very cool. No prob. Saw it on Reddit.

Some improv: https://streamable.com/weie

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 09:26 PM) He could get hurt this year and never play again. Is it really worth risking $25M to MAYBE make an extra $2M next year? I wouldn't think so. It would make a lot more sense to opt out after next year. Maybe. Hard to tell how a guy views money after he already has ~$30m or so. I wouldn't be surprised if he'd make $3-4m extra this year, and getting that extra trip in means a lot more in the sixth year. I hope FanGraphs does an article on it -- they always have a really good arb estimator model.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 12:49 PM) Abreu would be a fool to opt into arbitration right now. He would barely make more money, if any at all, in 2017 and would risk losing the guaranteed money he has coming in 2018 and 2019. Really? You think he's a likely non-tender candidate over the next three years? Also, he's all but guaranteed a raise -- the arbiters don't look at total value, they look at how much of a RAISE the guy has earned. Dingers and ribbies have shown to be chief there.