Jose Abreu

Nice to see that Robert has turned you. That may come off as a snipe or something but I mean it. Now if only Moncada can as well

The Alen Hanson one... thanks for doing this it was fun to read

Robert, pronounced like the common first name

I feel the same way, and just because of it, they're going to lose like 12-0 tomorrow just to crush our spirits

In a vacuum, contract/expectations aside, Dunn was absolutely an MLB quality player in both of those years and was a pretty good one in 2012. I don't think a .762-.800 OPS is necessarily Collins' best case scenario, but let's say that he hits .220/.330/.420 or something like that. If he can stick behind the plate, and so far there has been no indication that he cannot, then that's still a pretty valuable player.

Interesting thread and under those exact parameters I'd take Option 1. The worst option is 2, IMO.

No, and I already said in my first post that I'm not saying Collins = Gallo. Collins will never have a high BA, I'm just not sure why that matters if he takes walks and hits home runs. 20 at bats isn't even close to a fair assessment of whether he can do that. I also would be willing to bet that he does not end his MLB career with a .000 BABIP.

Ok, then did he suck from 2017-2018 when he hit .208/.322/.516 (.838 OPS)?

Does Joey Gallo suck? I'm not saying Collins is Gallo, but you're only using one stat to evaluate a player, and it's one of the worst ones you could possibly use, and I know you know that which is why I'm confused by your stance.

That, and the big declarations about players who have had 20 ABs, is very unlike Jack

Since he already had a cup of coffee with Boston, wasn't the timing of that promotion largely irrelevant as long as it occurred after the first month or so of the season?

I don't know about you but I think his .000 BABIP is sustainable

Don't kid yourself, we'll have clinched a spot already.

No Bailey in the lineup today. Could he be on a flight to Arizona??? I know it's probably just a day of rest but let me be hopeful

It had him as a -0.83, not good but also not terrible IMO. Wasn't very close to the bottom

Ha, I totally thought that was the good Nylander

And the bolded is my point. All of the correlations are very weak and that's why my conclusion was that you have to look at each player individually. As for this, are you saying that he won't be able to maintain a higher BABIP? I feel like players like Baez, Moncada, and Judge may not necessarily align with the article's claims completely, but they still routinely produce high BABIPs

I find it hard to believe that Otto Porter and Kris Dunn are below average defenders

Fascinating but also disappointing. Not the article itself but the findings. Basically tells me that there's no one size fits all approach at evaluating BABIP and that every player needs to be evaluated on a case by case basis.

For these reasons and many others, it's reasonable to conclude that what he is doing is relatively sustainable. I have actually been pleasantly surprised by the lack of "but look at his BABIP, clearly he's just lucky" posts/narratives.

Wow, he’s getting called up to MLB. I’d rather see Collins get ABs than him.

For all I've heard about Collins' defense being laughably bad, I expected him to be a train wreck behind the plate. Instead, he has actually looked pretty good defensively. Not sure why people are continuing to push the "Collins sucks defensively" narrative when there's no evidence at the MLB level to prove that it's true.

What I don't get is your expectations for his BABIP. Why does his lack of strikeouts influence his BABIP in any way? What matters is his quality of contact, which I don't know enough about, but I haven't seen anything to suggest that his contact profile is so good that he'll be Moncada or Judge like with his BABIP

Ceiling? I don't know enough about his contact profile to estimate a BABIP but maybe somewhere around .330/.380/.480 with good defense? More realistically, I think he's a solid .300/.350/.450 guy long-term.