TheFutureIsNear

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 29, 2016 -> 01:11 AM) Does anyone want to put statistical odds on Coats, Liriano, Engel or Jacob May being on a major league roster at the start of the 2020 season? The main benefit of them playing is the POSSIBILITY that just one of them is a 4th outfielder on a good team, like Saladino being a supersub/utility guy on a playoff-caliber squad. I'd take driving down the White Sox record into the 60's win total from the low 70's if it means not having to watch Avi Garcia for another full season. That said, the odds seem HIGH that they would continue with Garcia for more than 2-3 months if he's still in that 675-725 OPS range (due to his obvious defensive limitations). At that time (late June/July), you'd have playing time to give to the guys previously mentioned, as well as Davidson and anyone acquired via trade for some of our other veterans. Engel I think has a shot to be on a roster as a 4th OF'er...fast bench guy with defense and some pop. Drew Stubbs type career maybe? Liriano I suppose has always had the talent to be a regular, just hasn't put it together yet. Not great odds of making it, but there is hope. No better time than after a change of scenery to a rebuilding team to give him 500 AB's and see what happens in my opinion. Coats and May? Very little chance of being on a roster in 2020.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 11:31 PM) I'm not arguing what Todd Frazier would be worth in this market, I'm arguing what he'd be worth during the 2017 season for a team that acquires him. Turner is coming off a career year, while Frazier is coming off a dissapointing one. There's no doubt that Turner would get more in this market. Having said that, it's quite apparent that teams didn't view Turner as a 5+ WAR player (which they shouldn't), but that he also took a sizable hometown discount. His $16M AAV does reflect his true market value IMO. What's interesting though is that Frazier was the superior player in 2014 & 2015. With a strong rebound in 2017 Frazier could easily eclipse Turner's contract next offseason, especially when you consider he won't cost a team their 1st round pick. Again, I think some posters here are seriously undervaluing Frazier because of his poor 2016 season. I fully expect a 3+ WAR season out of him next year and that should be very valuable come the deadline no matter what market rate you place on WAR. Frazier has had almost 1,000 straight PA's of hitting under .230 with a OBP under .310...and you're pretty confident he's suddenly going to turn that around? I'm sure not. He's going to have to make drastic changes at the plate because his entire approach is pretty awful honestly. It boggles my mind that a professional hitter thinks its a good idea to go up to the plate and try to hook every single pitch he sees to the left. And no, there's no market for Frazier. Until he proves he's something other than a HR or nothing guy I really don't see any teams lining up for his services.

I'd say... Q Abreu (maybe he's not an elite bat, but he's still dirt cheap for his production and under control) Jones Robertson Gonzalez (it will take a desperate team close to or in ST but it's not like last year was his 1st taste of success and he's dirt cheap and under control) Jennings (I don't think any GM is fooled into thinking he's anything more than a 2nd lefty) Frazier Melky I think both Frazier and Melky are deadline deals. I really don't think any team is lining up for either right now given the free agents still available.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 08:05 PM) That's not what I said. I said Avi has as good of a chance of being a decent hitter as Alvarez does of being worth something at the deadline. If Pedro Alvarez remains who he was last year - an .800 OPS because he is strong against righties and a .670 OPS hitter against lefties - a platoon DH who is a crappy fielder and only puts up an .825 OPS because he is playing 90% of his time against righties and is still owed a couple million dollars isn't worth jack squat at the deadline. For him to be worth something at the deadline, he'd need to have a good year against lefties, a better year defensively, or put up a 1.000+ OPS against righties. All of those are possible but unlikely. I think you're overthinking it, teams trade for platoon guys and bench pieces at the deadline all the time. I'm not saying we could trade Alvarez for much, but if a team needs a power surge at the deadline we could get a couple of prospects for him if he's still hitting righties well and carrying the same .800 OPS. Even if we could get just a young UTL bench guy or a good bullpen arm under control for 6 years for him I'd consider it a win. Guys like Chris Coghlan, Aaron Hill, Brandon Guyer, Melvin Upton, and Kelly Johnson all got traded for something at the deadline this past year. I'd take the odds that Alvarez could be traded for an interesting bullpen arm and a loto ticket 19 year old then Avi putting up a .750+ OPS. I just think little moves like this type and always churning the roster are necessary in a full rebuild. No need to keep watching the same guys fail, throw as many pieces at the wall as possible and see what sticks.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 07:35 PM) I have no issue with Avi getting a good portion of the season this year - he's cheaper than these guys and probably has just as much of a chance at becoming a decent hitter as Pedro Alvarez does of becoming worth something at the deadline. Lawrie's problem is he only has 1 year of control, which means even if he got off to a great start he'd be nothing but a quick, cheap deadline deal. Saladino I have no idea what he will be long term and I want him playing every day. If he's an average MLB player (2 WAR, strong defense, weak to average bat) that's a useful find and I would be content with him playing 3b for a couple years until we find something better. Lol what world do you live in? Avi can't put up a .700 OPS and he has just as good of a chance to be as good as a guy who just put up an OPS over .800? Don't get me wrong, I'm well aware Alvarez is pretty crappy, but Avi doesn't even belong in the majors. Sorry, but 1,500 AB's is more than enough time to prove your worth. And Avi has proven nothing more than worthless.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 07:18 PM) I would consider going after 2 guys on that list (add Carter as well). Rasmus and Alvarez or Rasmus and Carter should be fits for this team once all is done. Valbuena would only make sense if they moved Lawrie or if in fact Saladino's back issues really were thought to be significant. I can't buy that Michael Saunders won't find a role somewhere before the end of Jan. If it were up to me guys like Lawrie and Avi wouldn't be on the team and we'd take a shot on guys who have the potential to have real value...but that's obviously not going to happen unfortunately. And let's not forget that Abreu can always DH more with plenty of AB's between 1B and the rest of the IF positions. Not like Lawrie and Saladino are the type of guys that need to be played everyday, we kinda know what they are already. But yeah I agree, Saunders will most likely find a multi year deal somewhere better than with us next year.

Pedro Alvarez Cody Asche Franklin Gutierrez Adam Lind Brandon Moss Colby Rasmus Michael Saunders Luis Valbuena I'd take a gamble on any 1 of those guys. Only need to catch lightning in a bottle for 3 1/2 months to turn them into something useful long term.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 27, 2016 -> 11:18 AM) I feel like i"ve said this a thousand times, but the Ken Giles and Kimbrel trades both happened in offseason and both were prospect heavy toward seller. I don't think Deadline helps that much. When you go back and look at that Giles trade was it REALLY that great of a haul? Once you take out the name factor and realize Mark Appel had already lost a ton of his value (looking like a huge bust) there isn't really a ton left. Don't get me wrong Velasquez is a really nice get for a reliever on a bad team, but the Phillies might have actually given up the 2nd best prospect in that deal (SS Arauz). Plus Giles threw 100+ innings of dominant ball the 2 years before being traded, Robertson has simply been above average. Maybe? Robertson is a either a salary dump for 1 or 2 B level prospects now, or you cross your fingers and hope he improves and has more value later. Really don't see any in-between.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 27, 2016 -> 11:01 AM) A solid haul, but it is missing the marquee headliner to get a deal done If the Yankees do not make Torres and/or Frazier available I don't see a deal happening. Quintana + Robertson should net both of them Mateo's stock has slipped after a mediocre 2016, I no longer view him as a top 50 mlb prospect. Judge's stock is down a bit too after striking out at an alarming rate in 2016. Robertson will have good value at the deadline, I don't love the idea of including him in a potential deal unless it lands us both Torres and Frazier as headliners Why are you acting like Robertson has a lot of value? Robertson adds a couple of B level prospects to the end of the deal. His name shouldn't even be mentioned with Frazier and Torres. Getting both is indeed crazy talk

Clint Frazier, Jorge Mateo, Miguel Andujar, Albert Abreu, Ian Clarkin That's my guess of what I think Cashman would offer for both Q and Robertson.

QUOTE (staxx @ Dec 25, 2016 -> 10:17 PM) I would take Severino for Robertson for sure Don't understand the love for this guy around here. If he can't maintain a .700 OPS in the minors what do you think he's going to do with extended MLB time? At best he's a backup and I really hope we're targeting something with higher potential than that.

But really Lunhow and the Astros just really need to make a New Year's resolution to stop being freaking cheap. Such an obvious deal that benefits both teams that it should be done already. Hahn has been shopping Q among other teams, not he just needs to go back to Lunhow with the price and make him beat it. Kyle Tucker + AJ Reed + 1 of Musgrove/Whitley/Paulino/Perez + 1 of Teosccar Hernandez/Daz Cameron/Laureno/Stubbs....Astros can pick whichever 1 they want out of the last 2 grouping for all I care. Would anybody really be upset if we ended up getting Tucker, Reed, Perez, and Laureno? I sure wouldn't. I know it lacks the shiny prospect at the top, but I honestly don't hate the odds of us getting 4 regulars out of that deal. Obviously there is a good amount of risk as with any prospects, but we need an influx of position player talent and the Astros represent a good way to do that.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Dec 25, 2016 -> 04:23 PM) MLB's eight potential trades has three Sox deals. I think the only deal I MIGHT take would be the 3 way with the Dodgers and Pirates. De Leon, Bell, Calhoun, and Diaz would be a decent haul I suppose. Don't love that both Calhoun and Bell are limited defensively though. Meadows, Frazier, and Clay Holmes isn't enough. It's a prospect light for me. Add in Newman, Hayes, or at least Craig and we might have a deal. I'd rather take the chance and wait it out that Robertson has more value at the deadline if Severino is the best deal now. I think we should be able to get more than a defensive backup catcher for Robertson honestly.

The Mets are another team with a ridiculous amount of depth of talent. I would also take Nimmo for Robertson. I'd be interested in seeing what Wilmer Flores can do in a full season of AB's. He's still only 25 and put up a .788 OPS in part time duties last year. TJ Rivera is also pretty interesting. Old for a prospect at this point (28), but has done nothing but hit his entire career thus far. Career .324/.371/.434 slash in over 2,400 minor league AB's. Finally got a small cup of coffee in the majors last year and hit .333/.345/.476 in 105 AB's. Position flexibility being able to play 4 IF spots too. I think he has the ceiling of an above average starting 2B and the floor of a quality UTL IF. Couple of interesting catching prospects they could afford to lose in Tomas Nido and Patrick Mazeika too.

QUOTE (Fantl916 @ Dec 24, 2016 -> 09:41 AM) The cool part I take from this is that we should be getting a big package of quality for Quintana. That should be a positive for everyone. That rumored package from that 3way was massive and would be 100% worth dealing Quintana. The idea that we can get Glasnow + a couple more sweet guys (per Rabbit) is awesome. I would think everyone would be pumped for something like Glasnow + Keller + Newman +'Diaz or something of the like. This is really exciting I've been pretty firmly in the "you can't have too much pitching" camp when some complained about not enough hitting prospects after the Sale and Eaton trades, BUT we NEED to get at least 1 premium (top 50 minimum) hitting prospect back for Q. And that's not Newman or Diaz even though they are both fine prospects in their own right. We are brimming with pitching talent, but the hitting talent in the minors is still pretty lacking. I think we still need at least 1 more all-star potential piece to count on in the everyday lineup to truly feel confident in a reasonably timed rebuild.

Yankees get: McCutchen Pirates get: Q and Nate Jones White Sox get: Tyler Glasnow, Josh Bell, Jorge Mateo, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Chance Adams, and Dustin Fowler Ehh?? Pirates improve their pitching all around at a very reasonable cost controlled price without completely gutting their system while also shedding Cutch's salary. Pirates shuffle the Mateo, Adams, and Fowler package they get from the Yankees for Cutch over to us to supplement keeping most of their own prospects. Yankees make a splash move that makes them a lot better without giving up any of their main pieces in the minors. And the White Sox get a haul.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 22, 2016 -> 08:56 PM) Still don't believe they deal Bregman and without him, I'm not big on their prospect depth. Sticking with my prediction that Astros go with internal options and add around June/July if they have to. Don't like the Astros prospect depth?? They have 5 current top 100 prospects + Musgrove and Reed + Teoscar Hernandez, Daz Cameron, Franklin Perez, and Garrett Stubbs. That's 11 prospects we should be very interested in. Id listen to the argument that they don't have the 1 marquee name at the top without Bregman (although I think Tucker will be soon), but you won't find many teams in baseball with more overall depth of talent through out then them.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 22, 2016 -> 02:01 PM) I don't think a pirates team that depends heavily on the farm system due to a limited budget is going to trade anyone for Abreu and Gonzalez. One will get expensive soon, then other can be found cheaply without giving any players up. Abreu won't be expensive (relatively of course) until he's a free agent. Don't let the word arbitration scare you, he's not going to make much more than his original 6 year contract called for even he goes through arb 2 more times.

11-12, 190 IP, 210 K, 3.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

QUOTE (Al Lopez's Ghost @ Dec 22, 2016 -> 10:45 AM) I think this makes a lot of sense, and Hahn has a history of 3 way trades. Mets are currently looking to shed salary...they aren't taking on both McCutchen and Robertson in a deal.

It seems to me that people are overrating what Bell really is...Bell, Glasnow, and Newman does nothing for me honestly. Bell is a below average 1B/DH who doesn't have even close to elite game power. I know he's a big strong guy and the power is supposed to be there...but it's not. Don't get me wrong, he's a nice prospect and should be a productive player. I just question how productive he's going to be for him being a defensive liability. I see him as a Brandon Belt type with bad defense. Again, nice player, but not the #1 position player we get back for Q. Has to be more.

If Meadows really is "untouchable" is there a package that would work. Would the Pirates do Bell, Glasnow, Keller, and Newman? Would/Should we do that?

IF Pit were to trade for Q (don't think they will) id say they have to include Meadows. Bell is a nice prospect, but he'd have to a seriously elite bat to warrant trading Q for a 1B/DH type. And as others have pointed out Bell very well be their opening day 1B while Meadows has no where to play unless they sell low on Cutch, and seems pretty obvious now that that isn't happening. My official guess would be Meadows, Keller, Hayes and Agrazal...last name is extremely interchangeable obviously, but I can definitely see the 1st 3 names being the main pieces in a Q trade. Really not far off from the Sale trade, just not quite as good because Moncada/Kopech is nearly impossible to replicate.

Interesting rumor...anybody think the Pirates would try to trade Polanco and just bring up Meadows/Bell for RF? For a team always worried about the bottom line I would think they'd be more inclined to trade a guy who's service time has already started... Would anybody do something along the line of Q for Polanco, Glasnow, Keller, and Ke'Bryan Hayes (or something close)?

.265/.300/.410 14 HR's and 22 steals with above average D at SS.