shysocks

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 3, 2014 -> 09:50 AM) Then by that barometer, Adam Eaton's just as valuable as Mike Stanton, almost. Wow! I usually use Fangraphs (2.7 WAR), so I didn't realize b-ref had Eaton up at 4.8. That's got to be one of the biggest gaps in baseball. I think another test is length of production - Quintana has been proving longer than Eaton and would fetch more in a trade as a result.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 3, 2014 -> 09:34 AM) Now we're pushing it with Quintana. Solid, underrated pitcher, sure. Star, no way. Adam Eaton's got more star quality than Quintana, so does Avisail. Heck, so do Anderson and Hawkins, for that matter. Rodon as well. Stanton's an elite player, a superstar, one of the top 10 talents in the game today and still young. Think that's arguing semantics. If you don't wanna call him a star, then reword my post to read "two established MLB producers."

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 3, 2014 -> 09:31 AM) Except in the sabremetric world, defensive metrics will always weigh him down close to negative territory. If he could hit close to 800 ops-wise, he has a full-time position despite the issues in the field...or maybe he's DH and they bring in another LH bat who can play the outfield. The problem is how long will the Sox be waiting for that 800 season. 750ish is about the best we've come to expect due to the low walk totals/plate discipline issues. He has, for the most part, at least earlier in the season, figured out a better approach against RHP and he's also done a better job of hitting fastballs at times. It's not the metrics' fault, it's his actual defensive "ability." He is a really horrible fielder and I'm convinced his bat will never come around. The sooner the Sox move on, the better.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Sep 2, 2014 -> 09:05 PM) The notion that Q is not a 2 is valid to some extent. His stuff is average and he doesn't have a true swing and miss pitch. His swinging strike rate is at 7.8%, which ranks 66 out of 95 qualified pitchers this year. With his stuff, hitters foul off a lot of his pitches and runs his pitch count up, and as a result he starts to reach his pitch limit around the 5th or 6th inning, that's why we often see him implode during that span. He should not be your second starter in a playoff series, especially with the added pressure. But given that, I still don't think we should trade him. He's got one of the best contracts in the league, and if we can put a legit #2 starter between him and Sale, that would be one of the best 1-2-3's in the league. I can live with him being a #3 with that contract. And we may already have that #2 starter in the system, and he can deliver as early as late 2015. This is true, but if you look at a lot of other numbers he ranks right around 40th - ground ball rate, K-BB%, SIERA. And he is 22nd in OPS allowed despite pitching in US Cellular. I wish he could lower his pitch count a bit too, but he's still managed to make it into the top 30 in innings. When you have a pitcher who does just about everything this well and combine it with durability, you have a #2. To pile on here - the notion of trading him is kind of ludicrous. Someone else said this almost exactly: you trade established guys to get prospects who might turn into good major league players who you then might be able to sign long term. That's Quintana already. Maybe we could get Stanton for him, and that's a nice thought, but trades that move two established MLB stars just don't happen that often, Lester/Cespedes notwithstanding.

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 10:35 AM) Because they have their own award. That's what I was talking about with the can of worms thing and probably a debate for a different thread. Suffice to say, I've never had a problem with deserving pitchers winning/being considered for MVP. QUOTE (chw42 @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 10:43 AM) I don't expect a bunch of old people to take defensive metrics seriously. Even I can't take his UZR this year all that seriously. I mean, Gordon's a good LFer, but not +25 runs good. I agree about the old people. Not likely.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 09:40 AM) That IMO Sale should have been a starter that season, preferably in the minors if the big league staff had no role for him. By having him in the bullpen, we used up a year of his pre-arb eligibility and failed to work on building up endurance/innings in his arm. both of these were bad things for his long-term position with the Sox. He didn't continue building on the 150 innings/season he got in college, which likely was reflected in his exhaustion and extra rest the next year during an actual playoff hunt, and we also lost a year of him being cheap. Those were the downsides. The upside was supposed to be that we made the playoffs in 2011. We did not. There are multiple failures on that team, so it's not just Rios, but he had one of the worst seasons in MLB history, so at the very least he was a key part of it. The 2011 White Sox was the team doing an all-in bet at a casino. We risked 5 years of the franchise's health on winning that year. After losing that year, we have spent the 3+ years afterwards with a weakened roster still recovering from its failures. Chris Sale was only one small part of the things we put on the table that year. Well stated and hard to argue with. I still think that for all the complaints about his role that year, where we are with Sale right now could not be better. It's impossible to say how things would be different if he had been in Charlotte. Who knows, maybe he never signs his contract.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 09:17 AM) Wouldn't it be sad for Trout if people ended up thinking this way, and he never even ended up winning an MVP? Like he spent his breakout years being "OMG RBI'd" by Miguel Cabrera, and now that his competitor has faded, we're already used to his MVP-level greatness that we never gave him and MVP for, so he bores us too much to get one now. I don't think we have to worry because this is probably his year. The Angels will make the playoffs and that'll be that. Although it would be extra hilarious if writers fall so in love with the KC story that they give it to Alex Gordon, with defensive metrics as the justification.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 09:19 AM) Would you be mad if we had another year of eligibility on Sale's contract? And I complain regularly that we screwed around with his arm that year, FWIW. I'm not sure exactly what you're arguing. I think what you're saying is that Sale would have been in the minors getting SP innings if Rios and the team had played better that year.

Give me more Stone and Wimpy.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 09:03 AM) There's a legitimate "opportunity/cost" issue though. The White Sox went "all in" as a bet, in the truest sense of the phrase, in 2011. Rios was abjectly awful that season. The White Sox's failure that season continues to impact this team to this day. We had to cut payroll after that, shed veterans, and eventually start a true rebuilding process. We also sacrificed a year of Sale's eligibility working him out of the bullpen to try to win every game possible. Alex Rios's debacle of a season fed the 2011 White Sox debacle of a season, and even though he helped the next 1.5 years, his terrible play that year contributed to long-term damage to the franchise. Not buying that Sale line. We had six starting pitchers put up roughly 3 fWAR that year and I know nobody's complaining about Sale's career path now.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 10:00 PM) Well well well - 2 for 4 last night with 2 RBI and a homer. Oh we know, it was impossible to watch the game last night and not hear the big news from Hawk.

I voted King Felix. I know Trout will probably win, but Felix is doing some things on the mound that are unparalleled in history, while Trout is having your run-of-the-mill great year. I can see a lot of writers voting for Felix & Kershaw and running with the story. The MLB OPS is the lowest its been in 22 years at the moment, so why not give it to the two pitchers most responsible? /can of worms

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 09:51 AM) 999,999 times. One dollar. But seriously, I'm sure Hahn has done his due diligence on Stanton. The Sox might have enough to get him, now that Rodon is in the picture, but the cost would be astronomical.

Was looking up Abreu's first and second half splits this morning because while it's obvious that he's not hitting for as much power, it still seems likes he's been no less effective. Anyway, I noticed something interesting. 1st half: .292/.342/.630/.972, 6.3 BB%, 23.4 K%, 162 wRC+ 2nd half: .361/.438/.534/.972, 9.8 BB%, 18.3 K%, 169wRC+ Funny that he's gotten to an identical OPS in such drastically different ways. In conclusion: stud.

Tough to question his power. Only 27 guys have more homers than him since the start of 2013. Only 15 guys with as many plate appearances as him have higher slugging.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 26, 2014 -> 02:45 PM) I doubt they sign someone else. They still had Keppinger, and I would imagine they thought he would be healthy enough to play. If Paulie doesn't come back, maybe he still is in baseball. Ultimately, it didn't cost the White Sox anything, and Paulie has had his moments. He still gets the biggest cheers at USCF. Letting him go out like this instead of the Fisk, Thomas, McDowell, Maggs ugliness when they left is preferrable and ultimately may help the White Sox. A. with free agents and B. being omited from no trade clauses. Everything else being equal, I'll agree that this way is preferable. But I have trouble believing that giving Paulie a full-season sendoff will have any effect on dealings with other players. That's a stretch.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Aug 26, 2014 -> 01:55 PM) To me this all depends on if the Sox think Rodon is going to be ready to go or not. I'm not saying spend money on Shields specifically but if Rodon is what we all think he's going to be then I have a hard time believing that a rotation with Sale, Quintana, Shields(someone his caliber) and Rodon in it, isn't at the very least a wild card contender. Just for fun I drew out the 2015 roster, both known and unknown, and gave them some fairly conservative WAR estimates. Keep in mind a replacement level team wins about 47 games. fWAR, PLAYER 5 Chris Sale 4 Jose Quintana 3 James Shields 1 Carlos Rodon 1 John Danks 2 Bullpen 4 Jose Abreu 2 Alexei Ramirez 2 Adam Eaton 1 Avisail Garcia 1 Conor Gillaspie 1 Tyler Flowers 1 Left Fielder 1 DH + 2B 1 Bench That's 30 WAR for a 77 win team. This assumes most of our spare cash goes to pitching, what with adding James Shields and trotting out a somewhat useful bullpen. I generally put almost no thought into the estimates, other than "round down." Obviously this is super simplified, but that team might be a contender - it is more than a remote possibility.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 26, 2014 -> 09:17 AM) Too bad we can't cut posters for having bad posting spells. I blame advanced stats.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 25, 2014 -> 09:52 AM) It is a balancing act. What I don't want to see if those losses come at the expense of development. For example, if you are the White Sox, and Avi Garcia hits .100 with no power for September, what do you do? Maybe it gets you a better draft pick, but if it comes at the expense of the team's future, that isn't good. I'd much rather see games won because guys like Sanchez, Flowers, Garcia, etc are playing well, than for the kids to go into the tank and us to get a better draft pick. Usually to lose games, you need to have players play losing baseball. If it is just the pen blowing games, fine. Any more than that, and we do more harm than good for the future of this organization. It isn't as simple as Lose Baby Lose! Best post ever. In a vaccum, sure, let's get a better pick. But this isn't a vacuum, and our better pick could be the result of important players not playing well.

QUOTE (ChiSoxJon @ Aug 24, 2014 -> 09:40 AM) I've said his since we moved him away from 3B but Beckham belongs there, great D and put up great numbers, there was no need to move him, in the case he bats around .260-.270 next year on a different team at 3B with 12-15 HRs and 25-30 2Bs with roughly 60-70 RBIs, how pissed will you be and at whom? I'll be pissed at KW and RV at an extreme level, maybe even Ozzie Not pissed at all. The team gave him years and years to get his act together. Whether they jerked his position around or not, that's plenty of time.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Aug 22, 2014 -> 09:34 PM) What a huge joke this pen is Pen allowed one run tonight. Offense squandered baserunners all night long.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Aug 22, 2014 -> 09:31 PM) Thank god Prado has no plan whatsoever. K him Webb totally lost control after getting two strikes.

I've never heard a noise quite like the one the crowd just made when they thought Jeter had won the game.

Props to Belisario for this outing, and to Robin for bringing in the right guy.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Aug 22, 2014 -> 08:40 PM) Hawk says it is odd saying Sanchez at 2nd and not GB wishes him the best. He sounded like he was in mourning.