2017 International Signings

[Chicago White Sox]

Yes, there are some of the bigger spenders are out either way. It all depends on what he gets. If he gets what Moncada got, $30 million plus $30 million penalty, I'd be shocked the Sox won the bidding. But Boston can't offer that. Who can?

 

If he is as good as many think, he fits in perfectly with any team, and is exactly the type of player the White Sox are looking to add. Acquiring him is like having an extra #1/1 pick in the draft or an extra ace to trade.

Wasn't Maitan considered the top prospect in this past year's class and he only got $4.25M? Obviously Robert is a different situation given his age and proximity to the majors, but I don't see him getting anything close to Moncada money.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Very likely that the MLB drags its feet and does not clear Robert prior to June 15th. I think the league frowns upon a team just going nuts in international free agency, hence the new model

 

Sox will be in the mix either way for him

 

 

I wonder if the Sox would rather have him cleared sooner than later. In the next period, The Sox could offer him $4.75 million. They'd likely have to acquire more $$ to sign him I'd think to a bonus closer to $8 million. If he's cleared now, some think he ends up in STL or SD but Sox could justify spending more than those teams on him in current period. If they really want him, I think they get him. They paid $68 million for Abreu. It's different because of none of that was a penalty but it's still $68 million. They offered $25 million for Jorge Soler. If they think he's worth $50 million they could easily offer $25 million and pay a $25 million tax to take it to $50 million total. It's still just money. I know they haven't typically operated this way but Hahn has hinted towards doing it for the "right" player.

[steveno89]

I wonder if the Sox would rather have him cleared sooner than later. In the next period, The Sox could offer him $4.75 million. They'd likely have to acquire more $$ to sign him I'd think to a bonus closer to $8 million. If he's cleared now, some think he ends up in STL or SD but Sox could justify spending more than those teams on him in current period. If they really want him, I think they get him. They paid $68 million for Abreu. It's different because of none of that was a penalty but it's still $68 million. They offered $25 million for Jorge Soler. If they think he's worth $50 million they could easily offer $25 million and pay a $25 million tax to take it to $50 million total. It's still just money. I know they haven't typically operated this way but Hahn has hinted towards doing it for the "right" player.

 

It benefits the Sox to have him cleared after June 15th, but this is totally out of our control

 

If we sign Robert, great. If not? Then we move on to other guys to sign

 

Hopefully we can find a way to get him

[Y2Jimmy0]

It benefits the Sox to have him cleared after June 15th, but this is totally out of our control

 

If we sign Robert, great. If not? Then we move on to other guys to sign

 

Hopefully we can find a way to get him

 

 

This isn't really true. Most of the other guys already have agreements in place with teams. It pretty much seems like Robert or bust at this point which is why I think they end up with him.

[bmags]

This isn't really true. Most of the other guys already have agreements in place with teams. It pretty much seems like Robert or bust at this point which is why I think they end up with him.

 

I am certainly open to idea I'm putting my fan hat on and ignoring more compelling evidence, but to me that Badler article is still reassuring to me. It reads like "they don't seem like the obvious candidate since they didn't already spend over limit but the white sox keep coming up".

 

It could be a case where we "pursue" with a lowercase p, and fool ourselves to thinking we can land Robert with whatever available funds are left in 2016-17 period, but I think the sox are preparing themselves to be contenders no matter what.

 

I think the main part of it to me is they just seem like an org that is much more comfortable buying into paying a bunch for an 18-19 year old talent than betting on 16 year old ones. Especially ones that had been playing professionally, even if a light league.

[southsider2k5]

They really aren't competing with very rich organizations. If they want Robert, they can go get him. It's that simple. I've outlined how in multiple posts and even wrote an article for FutureSox about the prospects of doing so.

 

The Padres have a $55 million payroll for 2017.

 

The White Sox have a $90 million payroll.

 

It would be very easy to argue that the Padres should be the early signing favorite for a few reason. #1 they already have gone over the caps this session, and literally have nothing to lose and everything to gain by bringing in every single player they can before June 15. They also have a lot less payroll spent in this period giving them the ability to spend a bit more than the white Sox have. According to the Forbes list, the Padres actually have a slight overall revenue advantage as of 2016, so the $35 million difference in payroll is significant as to their relative spending abilities.

[southsider2k5]

Wasn't Maitan considered the top prospect in this past year's class and he only got $4.25M? Obviously Robert is a different situation given his age and proximity to the majors, but I don't see him getting anything close to Moncada money.

 

Teams historically have been more willing to spend on Cuban players as opposed to the 16 year olds out of places like the DR and Venezuela. My guess is that it has a lot to do with the fact that not only are the Cuban players old, but they are also exposed to professional baseball environments where they play against real competition, instead of just being prepared for showcases to show off their tools. You are getting a more known quantity out of Cuba.

[Y2Jimmy0]

The Padres have a $55 million payroll for 2017.

 

The White Sox have a $90 million payroll.

 

It would be very easy to argue that the Padres should be the early signing favorite for a few reason. #1 they already have gone over the caps this session, and literally have nothing to lose and everything to gain by bringing in every single player they can before June 15. They also have a lot less payroll spent in this period giving them the ability to spend a bit more than the white Sox have. According to the Forbes list, the Padres actually have a slight overall revenue advantage as of 2016, so the $35 million difference in payroll is significant as to their relative spending abilities.

 

 

My point is that it doesn't matter. They are capable of outspending the Padres if they want Luis Robert.

[bmags]

The Padres have a $55 million payroll for 2017.

 

The White Sox have a $90 million payroll.

 

It would be very easy to argue that the Padres should be the early signing favorite for a few reason. #1 they already have gone over the caps this session, and literally have nothing to lose and everything to gain by bringing in every single player they can before June 15. They also have a lot less payroll spent in this period giving them the ability to spend a bit more than the white Sox have. According to the Forbes list, the Padres actually have a slight overall revenue advantage as of 2016, so the $35 million difference in payroll is significant as to their relative spending abilities.

 

But they spent a crapton in taxes already. Signing Robert to 10 million would be an additional $20 million to that franchise, one that already spent $30 mill (this is Jimmys article isn't it? http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/2017/...e-sox-preview/)

 

So you are talking about a $50 million investment into the riskiest pool of talent for the Padres. I just don't buy it anymore.

 

Still think Cards could, and others, but I'm not buying the Padres would go that deep in.

[southsider2k5]

My point is that it doesn't matter. They are capable of outspending the Padres if they want Luis Robert.

 

Capable? Sure. But they just don't historically outbid everyone for players. Even a guy like Abreu had an element of fluke to him. None of the top payroll teams had a place for Jose to play, which left the White Sox as a tall midget. They made a bid on Soler, but were significantly outbid by the Cubs. That is much more typical of the White Sox in the open market. They come in second much more often than they come in first.

[Chicago White Sox]

Capable? Sure. But they just don't historically outbid everyone for players. Even a guy like Abreu had an element of fluke to him. None of the top payroll teams had a place for Jose to play, which left the White Sox as a tall midget. They made a bid on Soler, but were significantly outbid by the Cubs. That is much more typical of the White Sox in the open market. They come in second much more often than they come in first.

But none of the top payroll teams can sign Robert. It's very similar to the Abreu situation. If it's us against the Padres, I'll take my chances that we can win the bidding war. To bmags point, the Padres have already spent a f***ton of money on international free agents in the last 12 months. At some point they'll run out of cash, whereas we have spent very little in this area.

[bmags]

I used to think Padres were favorites if it's pre 15 because of low payroll, now I'd say Braves/Sox/Cardinals.

[Dick Allen]

The Padres have a $55 million payroll for 2017.

 

The White Sox have a $90 million payroll.

 

It would be very easy to argue that the Padres should be the early signing favorite for a few reason. #1 they already have gone over the caps this session, and literally have nothing to lose and everything to gain by bringing in every single player they can before June 15. They also have a lot less payroll spent in this period giving them the ability to spend a bit more than the white Sox have. According to the Forbes list, the Padres actually have a slight overall revenue advantage as of 2016, so the $35 million difference in payroll is significant as to their relative spending abilities.

How come you aren't including what the Padres already spent and have been penalized this signing period? If you take what already has occured, that $35 million advantage you are speculating, is already long gone.

Edited March 27, 2017 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

But none of the top payroll teams can sign Robert. It's very similar to the Abreu situation. If it's us against the Padres, I'll take my chances that we can win the bidding war. To bmags point, the Padres have already spent a f***ton of money on international free agents in the last 12 months. At some point they'll run out of cash, whereas we have spent very little in this area.

 

The Padres have been winning player after player. The White Sox haven't. I'd bet on the team that has a history.

[Dick Allen]

The Padres have been winning player after player. The White Sox haven't. I'd bet on the team that has a history.

They are already about $30 million over their pool. So they have another $30 million in penalties. I really doubt they can go too high with this guy. Another $15-20 million to write to the player, and $15-20 million to write to the league, doesn't seem like a Padres thing.

[steveno89]

Capable? Sure. But they just don't historically outbid everyone for players. Even a guy like Abreu had an element of fluke to him. None of the top payroll teams had a place for Jose to play, which left the White Sox as a tall midget. They made a bid on Soler, but were significantly outbid by the Cubs. That is much more typical of the White Sox in the open market. They come in second much more often than they come in first.

 

 

 

The MLB is a business after all. Owner's have limits on what they are comfortable spending

 

Would Robert be a great fit into our system? Absolutely

[southsider2k5]

They are already about $30 million over their pool. So they have another $30 million in penalties. I really doubt they can go too high with this guy. Another $15-20 million to write to the player, and $15-20 million to write to the league, doesn't seem like a Padres thing.

 

Doesn't seem like the White Sox thing either.

[Chicago White Sox]

Doesn't seem like the White Sox thing either.

Rebuilding doesn't seem like a White Sox thing either, but clearly that's happening. I don't think you can simply assume the way we've operated in the past in indicative of how we'll operate in the future.

[harfman77]

The Padres have a $55 million payroll for 2017.

 

The White Sox have a $90 million payroll.

 

It would be very easy to argue that the Padres should be the early signing favorite for a few reason. #1 they already have gone over the caps this session, and literally have nothing to lose and everything to gain by bringing in every single player they can before June 15. They also have a lot less payroll spent in this period giving them the ability to spend a bit more than the white Sox have. According to the Forbes list, the Padres actually have a slight overall revenue advantage as of 2016, so the $35 million difference in payroll is significant as to their relative spending abilities.

 

The Padres are also paying another $54M to players no longer on their roster, including sending some money to the White Sox to offset some of that $90M.

[southsider2k5]

The Padres are also paying another $54M to players no longer on their roster, including sending some money to the White Sox to offset some of that $90M.

 

The numbers are adjusted for retained salaries.

[southsider2k5]

Rebuilding doesn't seem like a White Sox thing either, but clearly that's happening. I don't think you can simply assume the way we've operated in the past in indicative of how we'll operate in the future.

 

I think it is lunacy to just assume because we changed in one area, than to assume suddenly this is a franchise that is going to blow away free agency, and international market. History is a much better indication than just because of one thing.

[harfman77]

The numbers are adjusted for retained salaries.

 

You're right. My bad.

[Dick Allen]

I think it is lunacy to just assume because we changed in one area, than to assume suddenly this is a franchise that is going to blow away free agency, and international market. History is a much better indication than just because of one thing.

White Sox once set a record when they signed Joe Borchard.

 

Did anyone really expect the White Sox to give Jose Abreu the biggest contract in team history?

 

They flew to Japan and were negotiating with Tanaka.

 

 

I don't think anyone is assuming the White Sox will sign Robert. I think we are assuming that if he is eligible before the next signing period, the White Sox are still very interested and would be willing to do something they have never done. Obviously it depends on the ultimate price, but a lot of stars are aligning just like with the Abreu signing.

 

And if the White Sox had done what they had never done and had already blown through their pool by $30 million, do you really think that would make them more likely to sign Robert?

Edited March 27, 2017 by Dick Allen

[Y2Jimmy0]

I think it is lunacy to just assume because we changed in one area, than to assume suddenly this is a franchise that is going to blow away free agency, and international market. History is a much better indication than just because of one thing.

 

 

This is far and I was with you until I saw 2 separate things. 1. Ben Badler linking the White Sox is a very big deal. 2. The Sox have no rumored agreements for 2017/2018 in a year in which many in the organization publicly stated that they'd be spending internationally. Go back and look at my posts. I was leading the charge on saying there was no way Sox would get him in this current period. I was assuming that they had agreements in place with guys though which clearly isn't the case.

[harfman77]

I think it is lunacy to just assume because we changed in one area, than to assume suddenly this is a franchise that is going to blow away free agency, and international market. History is a much better indication than just because of one thing.

 

By some accounts, the Sox did make the strongest offer to Tanaka in the international free agent market. They would not give him the opt out after three years the Yankees gave him though which was the differentiator.

 

The Sox have shown the willingness in the past to make a big splash internationally (Tanaka, Abreu, Soler) when they felt it made sense. They haven't always gotten their guy, but thats not all because of the money they have offered.

 

So, its not completely out of character for this org to spend big internationally. I think they are going to be a big player for Otani when he comes over.