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Davidson's Future


Lillian
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2 hours ago, glangon said:

For me, if he hit .250 with 30 homers and has more walks than strikeouts, then I'll be happy with that.

He will never have more walks than K's , not even close, as is the case with most players.

Joey Votto who takes a very high number of walks has done lt done it only 3 times.

26 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

 

Only 2.1% of all batters with at least 100 plate appearances in 2017 had a BB/K ratio greater than or equal to one.

That's why I can't understand why Anthony Rendon is rarely mentioned as a 3rd baseman the Sox could get in free agency. He did it for the 1st time last year and had an OBP of over .400 and came in 6th in MVP voting. Of course he had a career year in his age 27 season  with a 6.8 fWAR which was 5th in all of baseball among position players. He came in 5th in MVP voting in his age 24 season and also was 5th in fWAR that year with a 6,4. He also is a very good fielder.

When he is healthy he is a very good. Staying healthy is his only major flaw.

 

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Hell  I will be happy if his K/BB rate is within 5:1 instead of almost 9:1 it was last year.

It's currently 2.2:1. 

If he's going to be an above average, most of the time DH who backs up 3b or 1b occasionally, my goal out of that position is something like an .850 OPS as that would be above AL average production out of that position. Since he strikes out a lot that would bounce up and down every year, some years he might be .825 some years he might be at .900, but I think that's a reasonable goal. Give me that and I'm happy with him as a DH for the next several years.

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

It's currently 2.2:1. 

If he's going to be an above average, most of the time DH who backs up 3b or 1b occasionally, my goal out of that position is something like an .850 OPS as that would be above AL average production out of that position. Since he strikes out a lot that would bounce up and down every year, some years he might be .825 some years he might be at .900, but I think that's a reasonable goal. Give me that and I'm happy with him as a DH for the next several years.

I saw what it is now, and I don't think it is sustainable until proven otherwise.  Also the walk rate is really slowing down if you look at his game by games for the last month.  After 12 in his first 15 games, he actually went 7 straight games without a walk, and picked up 3 in his last two games to make it 3 in 9.  7 of the 15 walks he has this season happened in a four game stretch.

I get the feeling his walk numbers will be continuing that trend just like last season's rates.

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I'm skeptical too SS2K but his oZone swinging percent is down about 10% and he's making more contact both in and out of the zone when he swings.

He's almost +5 runs on "sinker curve" (I think that's two seamers and sinkers?) and is negative run value on every other type of pitch so far.  That's...interesting.  

Obviously he's a mistake hitter but I dunno if I'd ever throw him anything but breaking balls and 4 seamers up.   We'll see if the league adjusts.

Maybe he is a true talent 240/320/500 guy now and the Sox will have a decision at DH next year.

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One thing Davidson hitting does is make it easier to move Abreu. If Davidson continues to mash and obviously he can play the field then it makes sense to put him at 1B since he's under control till 2023.

Abreu on the otherhand only has two years.

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On 4/30/2018 at 9:30 AM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

He will never have more walks than K's , not even close, as is the case with most players.

Joey Votto who takes a very high number of walks has done lt done it only 3 times.

 

Yeah, he’s not going to do that. If he can cut the K% to the high 20’s that would be great, and he’s obviously never going to walk at that clip. The last guy to walk that much was probably Bonds (though Harper is there so far this year).

You mentioned Rendon in your original post, and I assume the reason he isn’t mentioned as a potential FA signing is simply because he isn’t a free agent until the 2019/2020 offseason. 

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8 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

One thing Davidson hitting does is make it easier to move Abreu. If Davidson continues to mash and obviously he can play the field then it makes sense to put him at 1B since he's under control till 2023.

Abreu on the otherhand only has two years.

Yea I’m not following that path.  Davidson can’t even touch Abreus production and I’m not about to gamble on a guy who hasn’t been able to do anything but mash Royals pitching

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I don’t think anyone or even the front office really knows what they have in Davidson yet. The thing is he was so awful in Charlotte in 14-15 it’s clouded all firm assessment. It’s true he might be a late bloomer, the plus power is legitimate  and the walk rate has improved. It also seems he is prone to funks and has an overly mechanical swing which falls out of whack and leads to deep slumps. I fear he may have a great year in 18 and revert back in 2019. The last thing needed is for a contending Sox team to count on Davidson in say 20-21 and he lays a season long dud. I’m still skeptical.  I think it’s best to go year to year on Matt.  He has improved greatly from say 2015, and now may have a regular role in the future, but I just can’t get past his past struggles in assessing his risk going forward.

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On 4/28/2018 at 6:58 AM, Dick Allen said:

8-15 with 7 HR vs, KC.

 

10-61 with 2 HRr and 29 strikeouts vs. everyone else.

 

it is one of the craziest splits of all time.

 

 

I think that's a pretty valid point though. It is skewing his stats this year.

 

I honestly don't view Davidson as being anything other than a placeholder for the Sox. I don't see them getting rid of him until someone in the system pushes him aside - which I don't think will be anytime soon. 

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If he keeps this up, hes worth keeping.  But I honestly think his best value will be as a flip at the deadline to a team that has a key injury.  

You gotta admit, watching a player completely reinvent his offensive approach is pretty amazing.  Hes doing the best Konerko impression that he can

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4 minutes ago, RockRaines said:

If he keeps this up, hes worth keeping.  But I honestly think his best value will be as a flip at the deadline to a team that has a key injury.  

You gotta admit, watching a player completely reinvent his offensive approach is pretty amazing.  Hes doing the best Konerko impression that he can

He certainly does look like Paulie up there. However, it is weird that he only hits against KC. 

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11 hours ago, BamaDoc said:

A worse Adam Dunn.  If you can move him for a decent prospect do it.  Right handed bat, mainly dh is the easiest piece to put into the puzzle in a couple years.

With what those players have been worth lately on the free agent and trade markets, the odds aren't in our favor.

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2 hours ago, raBBit said:

Biggest thing for me with Davidson is his new found plate discipline. 

2017 - 4.3 BB%, 37.2 K%

2018 - 14.7 BB%, 31.8 K%

And the 2018 metrics are about equal for April & May.  Just from watching him you see how much more selective he is this year.  I wouldn’t rush to consider him the long-term answer at DH, but he’s suddenly a guy worth investing a bit more time in and finding out.

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