Jose Abreu

[wrathofhahn]

5 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I  could post the numbers that show most prospects post 0 WAR in their careers too.

Also if anyone had been willing to pay that for Abreu, he would have been gone already. Your value idea for him is insanely high compared to what teams are willing to pay. We are not getting a top 25 prospect.  That is insanity.

I never said top 25. I said 25-50 that is sort of where when I did the projected surplus value on the most rosiest scenario (he continues his torrid hitting pace rather then using his career numbers) and plays every game of the season and it wouldn't have to be one for one swap and his surplus value would be at the bottom end of that fangraphs bucket probably somewhere between 40-50. Considering 51-75 was worth on average 24 million surplus value.

I was using FG prospect values *adjusted to last year $/WAR so once again while you could name 0 WAR prospects (which is around 32% of cases for the bucket I picked) once again these are averages. All I was doing was giving a rough idea of what his 1.38 seasons of control is worth to a new club (assuming he is moved at the deadline).

Also to be clear this really has nothing to do with an extension the only thing I was pushing back on was the idea that we couldn't get equal value for Abreu back in prospects. My point is while we may struggle to replicate the terribly lopsided deals like we made earlier for Q and Sale and to a lesser extent Adam Eaton I think we could easily get an interesting enough package back to pull the trigger.

[Chicago White Sox]

I’m open to trading Abreu, but that team better be prepared to pay up.  I’m talking about either a Quintana like return (one blue-chipper + one other top 100 type) or a Sonny Gray like return (three top 100ish prospects).

So for the Rockies, a team that could desperately use Abreu, I’m talking one of the following two packages:

A) Brendan Rogers & Riley Pint

B) Jeff Hoffman, Ryan McMahon, & Raimel Tapia

Obviously either of those packages would be a big price to pay for a year and a half of Abreu, but that’s the cost for me to give up one of the elite bats in the game, disrupting my clubhouse, & weakening my position with free agents next offseason.

[oldsox]

19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m open to trading Abreu, but that team better be prepared to pay up.  I’m talking about either a Quintana like return (one blue-chipper + one other top 100 type) or a Sonny Gray like return (three top 100ish prospects).

So for the Rockies, a team that could desperately use Abreu, I’m talking one of the following two packages:

A) Brendan Rogers & Riley Pint

B) Jeff Hoffman, Ryan McMahon, & Raimel Tapia

Obviously either of those packages would be a big price to pay for a year and a half of Abreu, but that’s the cost for me to give up one of the elite bats in the game, disrupting my clubhouse, & weakening my position with free agents next offseason.

A) Riley Pint?  He's done nothing.  You don't trade Abreu for that.  No way.

B)  Again, no way.  Hoffman not even on the team.

Rox need a bat like Abreu's in a big way, and they need to get rid of Desmond.  They could use a set up guy like Nate Jones.  Enter Hahn. Gotta have Rodgers, probably Dahl, etc.

[Chicago White Sox]

18 minutes ago, oldsox said:

A) Riley Pint?  He's done nothing.  You don't trade Abreu for that.  No way.

B)  Again, no way.  Hoffman not even on the team.

Rox need a bat like Abreu's in a big way, and they need to get rid of Desmond.  They could use a set up guy like Nate Jones.  Enter Hahn. Gotta have Rodgers, probably Dahl, etc.

I view Riley Pint a lot like Cease.  Big arm but some serious question marks (different issues obviously).  Get him in the system and hope our development guys can get things to click for him.  Regardless, option A is all about getting Rodgers.  I’m taking a discount on the secondary pieces if I get true blue-chipper for Abreu and that’s what Rodgers is.  He may not be quite as good as Jimenez, but we’re talking about a far less valuable asset.

As for option B, I’m not sure I understand what your beef with Hoffman is or what the “not even on the team” comment means.  He’d be the perfect type of arm to add and we could immediately insert him into our major league rotation.  On top of that, we get an instant replacement for Abreu in McMahon and a major league ready CF prospect.  While I’d love to add Dahl as a buy-low type, he’s already part of the OF mix for the Rockies and I really think they’d avoid giving him up.  Tapia would get at least a year and half opportunity in CF before Robert & Basabe become serious threats.  There’s a lot of value in adding three major league ready pieces that we can afford to work through their growing pains with.

And quite frankly, I don’t think the Rockies would do either trade.  I’m sure Rodgers is off-limits for anything but the most elite, cost-controlled talents and I can’t see them gutting a huge portion of their major league depth in one fair swoop.  More realistically I could see them offering something like McMahon & Tapia and that just wouldn’t do it for me.

[southsider2k5]

5 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

I never said top 25. I said 25-50 that is sort of where when I did the projected surplus value on the most rosiest scenario (he continues his torrid hitting pace rather then using his career numbers) and plays every game of the season and it wouldn't have to be one for one swap and his surplus value would be at the bottom end of that fangraphs bucket probably somewhere between 40-50. Considering 51-75 was worth on average 24 million surplus value.

I was using FG prospect values *adjusted to last year $/WAR so once again while you could name 0 WAR prospects (which is around 32% of cases for the bucket I picked) once again these are averages. All I was doing was giving a rough idea of what his 1.38 seasons of control is worth to a new club (assuming he is moved at the deadline).

Also to be clear this really has nothing to do with an extension the only thing I was pushing back on was the idea that we couldn't get equal value for Abreu back in prospects. My point is while we may struggle to replicate the terribly lopsided deals like we made earlier for Q and Sale and to a lesser extent Adam Eaton I think we could easily get an interesting enough package back to pull the trigger.

Those deals are not out there.  These types of players aren't getting that kind of trade value. The market isn't logical right now.  RPs are overvalued and the 1B/DH types are undervalued. Go back and look at the trades over the last few years, you will not find the deal you are talking about. 

[wrathofhahn]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Those deals are not out there.  These types of players aren't getting that kind of trade value. The market isn't logical right now.  RPs are overvalued and the 1B/DH types are undervalued. Go back and look at the trades over the last few years, you will not find the deal you are talking about. 

Like I said I think this deadline is different just based on how many 1B/DH aren't hitting on contending clubs

[southsider2k5]

16 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Like I said I think this deadline is different just based on how many 1B/DH aren't hitting on contending clubs

And I think Jose Abreu is different based on his tool set and other similar players in recent history. 

[wrathofhahn]

19 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

And I think Jose Abreu is different based on his tool set and other similar players in recent history. 

When you talk about recent history history you do realize there are only a handful of players who even make it to 33 in the MLB? There are only 18 qualified batters age 33 or older in the MLB right now. 7 with a wRC+ of 110 or greater. 6 below 100.

There are 162 qualified batters in the MLB right now. When it comes to 1B it becomes even more striking.

Out of 26 qualified 1B only 2 are 33 and older who have wRC+ of 110 or greater. Votto and Mauer who will drop off the list shortly because he's seriously injured as commonly happens with older players.

 

[southsider2k5]

13 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

When you talk about recent history history you do realize there are only a handful of players who even make it to 33 in the MLB? There are only 18 qualified batters age 33 or older in the MLB right now. 7 with a wRC+ of 110 or greater. 6 below 100.

There are 162 qualified batters in the MLB right now. When it comes to 1B it becomes even more striking.

Out of 26 qualified 1B only 2 are 33 and older who have wRC+ of 110 or greater. Votto and Mauer who will drop off the list shortly because he's seriously injured as commonly happens with older players.

 

So a majority of the guys are at least 10% above league average? Add to that where Abreu is now, and that makes me feel better,  not worse.

[wrathofhahn]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

So a majority of the guys are at least 10% above league average? Add to that where Abreu is now, and that makes me feel better,  not worse.

It shouldn't there is a reason why only 11% of MLB hitters (FG qualified) are 33+ years old and only 4% are 33+ years old and have wRC+ of 110 or greater.

Edited May 29, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[greg775]

1 hour ago, wrathofhahn said:

When you talk about recent history history you do realize there are only a handful of players who even make it to 33 in the MLB? There are only 18 qualified batters age 33 or older in the MLB right now. 7 with a wRC+ of 110 or greater. 6 below 100.

There are 162 qualified batters in the MLB right now. When it comes to 1B it becomes even more striking.

Out of 26 qualified 1B only 2 are 33 and older who have wRC+ of 110 or greater. Votto and Mauer who will drop off the list shortly because he's seriously injured as commonly happens with older players.

 

This is why I wish we'd just cut to the chase. The ones who want to flip Abreu at the trade deadline are concerned about his age. I wish everybody would just admit it. It's OK to admit you have become an age-ist regarding baseball. You aren't alone, folks. Many appreciate Jose A, sure, but they don't want to sign anybody over a certain age for any significant amount of money. It's OK. I've accepted it even though I don't like it at all.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, greg775 said:

This is why I wish we'd just cut to the chase. The ones who want to flip Abreu at the trade deadline are concerned about his age. I wish everybody would just admit it. It's OK to admit you have become an age-ist regarding baseball. You aren't alone, folks. Many appreciate Jose A, sure, but they don't want to sign anybody over a certain age for any significant amount of money. It's OK. I've accepted it even though I don't like it at all.

Literally no one wants to trade him because of his age. The main reason is about flipping him for more prospects.  I think most, if not all, say we should only deal him for a high price OR extend him for an extra 2 -3 years beyond his current contract/control (OR even trading him and signing him after next year if he becomes a free agent). You have become so laughable on this board its amazing.

Edited May 29, 2018 by soxfan2014

[yesterday333]

IF Avi re-establishes some value when he comes back, what kind of trade can we get from the rox for Avi, Abreu and Jones? Would the rox be interested in Avi as a righty OF? Arent all of their starting OFs left handed?

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, wrathofhahn said:

It shouldn't there is a reason why only 11% of MLB hitters (FG qualified) are 33+ years old and only 4% are 33+ years old and have wRC+ of 110 or greater.

The age question is a vast oversimplification.  Not all 33 year olds were created equal.  The reason most players are gone by that age is because they never were good to begin with.  How many players out there are putting up an OPS+ of 149 right now, and 142 for their careers?  I can tell you that as of today Jose Abreu is 17th in all of baseball in OPS.  If you figure 14 hitters per roster and 30 teams out there that puts about 420 major league hitters out there.  Average that out and guess where Jose Abreu is?  The top 4% of hitters in MLB today.

He has talent that very few in MLB have.  He has a skill set that will age well because he is a hitter first, who happens to have a lot of power.  There are many examples of his type of players doing exactly that.  Even if he deteriorates from his career average of 3.7 fWAR per season, down to the 2 WAR per season range, he is still putting up numbers that are right at what he is going to be getting paid in those season JUST from a statistical standpoint, and not factoring in what he means off of the field to the young players.  The average value of a point of WAR for 2017 was $10.5 million.

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, yesterday333 said:

IF Avi re-establishes some value when he comes back, what kind of trade can we get from the rox for Avi, Abreu and Jones? Would the rox be interested in Avi as a righty OF? Arent all of their starting OFs left handed?

When it comes to Avi, think Dan Jennings valuation.

[greg775]

8 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Literally no one wants to trade him because of his age. The main reason is about flipping him for more prospects.

That has nothing to do with age?? What does the word "prospect" mean? Young guys with upside. You look at Jose's Sox career and all you see is consistent production. The only "problem?" His age doesn't fit the projected WS window. Except it does if you are not an age-alarmist. At least examine your position on him thoroughly. Signing him for 2-3 more years? I guess that could happen if the Moustakas era continues, i.e. teams unwilling to sign players creeping toward 30 or just over 30. If nobody's gonna give Jose a big 5-6 year deal then I guess you could go that route, if that is what you are implying.

Edited May 29, 2018 by greg775

[greg775]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

The age question is a vast oversimplification.  Not all 33 year olds were created equal.  The reason most players are gone by that age is because they never were good to begin with.  How many players out there are putting up an OPS+ of 149 right now, and 142 for their careers?  I can tell you that as of today Jose Abreu is 17th in all of baseball in OPS.  If you figure 14 hitters per roster and 30 teams out there that puts about 420 major league hitters out there.  Average that out and guess where Jose Abreu is?  The top 4% of hitters in MLB today.

He has talent that very few in MLB have.  He has a skill set that will age well because he is a hitter first, who happens to have a lot of power.  There are many examples of his type of players doing exactly that.  Even if he deteriorates from his career average of 3.7 fWAR per season, down to the 2 WAR per season range, he is still putting up numbers that are right at what he is going to be getting paid in those season JUST from a statistical standpoint, and not factoring in what he means off of the field to the young players.  The average value of a point of WAR for 2017 was $10.5 million.

Great post regarding his age. I like it.

[ptatc]

29 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

When it comes to Avi, think Dan Jennings valuation.

Not only that but it's not a good sign that they did a PRP AFTER a normal healing period of time. His rehab will be longer than normal. Teams will question whether that hamstring will hold up. This will decrease his value as well. He will absorb a lot of magnetic waves with all of the MRI he will have before another team team trades/signs him.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

When you talk about recent history history you do realize there are only a handful of players who even make it to 33 in the MLB? There are only 18 qualified batters age 33 or older in the MLB right now. 7 with a wRC+ of 110 or greater. 6 below 100.

There are 162 qualified batters in the MLB right now. When it comes to 1B it becomes even more striking.

Out of 26 qualified 1B only 2 are 33 and older who have wRC+ of 110 or greater. Votto and Mauer who will drop off the list shortly because he's seriously injured as commonly happens with older players.

 

There are 234 players with 130 or more plate appearances this season.  Out of those players, 30 are over the age of 32 at the moment.  That means on average each team is starting a player over the age of 32 or roughly 1/8 of all starting position players are above this age threshold.  And nearly a 1/3 of those players are 1B/DH types.  And while a few of these guys are only around for financial reasons, I think players aged 33 and above are more common than you think.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, ptatc said:

Not only that but it's not a good sign that they did a PRP AFTER a normal healing period of time. His rehab will be longer than normal. Teams will question whether that hamstring will hold up. This will decrease his value as well. He will absorb a lot of magnetic waves with all of the MRI he will have before another team team trades/signs him.

yeah, between that and the huge questions about what kind of hitter is even if he comes back healthy, we are getting nothing of substance for Avi Garcia.

[GreenSox]

50 minutes ago, greg775 said:

This is why I wish we'd just cut to the chase. The ones who want to flip Abreu at the trade deadline are concerned about his age. 

The age is one of the reasons I don't want to extend him; the other is that DH is not a position in which I see the Sox as lacking internally.
But the reason I want to flip him is the opportunity to bring more young talent into the organization.  Yes, the minors are top 5, but the organization as a whole is not and still needs good players.

[beautox]

On 5/28/2018 at 6:42 AM, oldsox said:

A) Riley Pint?  He's done nothing.  You don't trade Abreu for that.  No way.

B)  Again, no way.  Hoffman not even on the team.

Rox need a bat like Abreu's in a big way, and they need to get rid of Desmond.  They could use a set up guy like Nate Jones.  Enter Hahn. Gotta have Rodgers, probably Dahl, etc.

As it stands right now outside of Votto the 1B & DH markets are thin, very thin; Votto is signed for minimum 5 more years with roughly 150M remaining and a full NTC . The fact that Abreu isn't a rental and has a reasonable salary this year and ARB3 next with a likely QO attached to him makes him valuable. Adding to his value is the unique situation that three teams find themselves in.

 

1.) Rockies have the worst production out of 1B have the pieces to make a deal happen and are looking at a dodger team too good to both play at this level and stand idle and a Giants team that is playing competently and have put them self into the picture.

2.) The defending Champs are going to feel even more pressure to defend. Gattis, Gurriel and Gonzalez have all taken a step back this year. They too have the pieces to land Abreu.

3.) The Yankees, bird is coming back but there is no way in hell Cashman is going to let the date of their season rest on a potential 1 game playoff against the Angels. They too have the pieces and the cap space to land Abreu.

 

Which brings the Sox to a great posisition where something is going to give and you can play all three teams against one another to get you what you think 1.5 years of Jose Abreus skills and intangibles are worth. It wouldn't surprise me if come July we're talking about a near Texeria like return from the Rockies for Abreu and Jones / Rondon

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, beautox said:

As it stands right now outside of Votto the 1B & DH markets are thin, very thin; Votto is signed for minimum 5 more years with roughly 150M remaining and a full NTC . The fact that Abreu isn't a rental and has a reasonable salary this year and ARB3 next with a likely QO attached to him makes him valuable. Adding to his value is the unique situation that three teams find themselves in.

 

1.) Rockies have the worst production out of 1B have the pieces to make a deal happen and are looking at a dodger team too good to both play at this level and stand idle and a Giants team that is playing competently and have put them self into the picture.

2.) The defending Champs are going to feel even more pressure to defend. Gattis, Gurriel and Gonzalez have all taken a step back this year. They too have the pieces to land Abreu.

3.) The Yankees, bird is coming back but there is no way in hell Cashman is going to let the date of their season rest on a potential 1 game playoff against the Angels. They too have the pieces and the cap space to land Abreu.

 

Which brings the Sox to a great posisition where something is going to give and you can play all three teams against one another to get you what you think 1.5 years of Jose Abreus skills and intangibles are worth. It wouldn't surprise me if come July we're talking about a near Texeria like return from the Rockies for Abreu and Jones / Rondon

And if that’s the case, by all means move him.  I love me some Abreu and would love to find a way to keep him with the White Sox long-term, but if market conditions provide us with an opportunity to add multiple high-end talents then it will be hard not to say goodbye to him.  My only beef is with the notion of getting rid of him for some fringe prospects or salary relief.  He’s a top 20 hitter in the game and those guys aren’t easily replaced.  Moving him better be on our terms.

[Flash]

2 hours ago, beautox said:

As it stands right now outside of Votto the 1B & DH markets are thin, very thin; Votto is signed for minimum 5 more years with roughly 150M remaining and a full NTC . The fact that Abreu isn't a rental and has a reasonable salary this year and ARB3 next with a likely QO attached to him makes him valuable. Adding to his value is the unique situation that three teams find themselves in.

 

1.) Rockies have the worst production out of 1B have the pieces to make a deal happen and are looking at a dodger team too good to both play at this level and stand idle and a Giants team that is playing competently and have put them self into the picture.

2.) The defending Champs are going to feel even more pressure to defend. Gattis, Gurriel and Gonzalez have all taken a step back this year. They too have the pieces to land Abreu.

3.) The Yankees, bird is coming back but there is no way in hell Cashman is going to let the date of their season rest on a potential 1 game playoff against the Angels. They too have the pieces and the cap space to land Abreu.

 

Which brings the Sox to a great posisition where something is going to give and you can play all three teams against one another to get you what you think 1.5 years of Jose Abreus skills and intangibles are worth. It wouldn't surprise me if come July we're talking about a near Texeria like return from the Rockies for Abreu and Jones / Rondon

I can see interest from Rox but doubt we will pry away similar value. If, however, there is an injury on Milwaukee, St. Louis or Red Sox, things could heat up nicely.

[wrathofhahn]

You can add some other names to the list. Astros. Mariners. Nationals