June 28, 20187 yr 51 minutes ago, greg775 said: I said one of the best 4 year runs. Frank obviously would be in there. Who else? Maybe Robin. Baines. And then you said maybe the best, which tells me that you never watched Frank Thomas, because no one who watched Frank Thomas would ever say that even with a maybe.
June 28, 20187 yr 2 hours ago, steveno89 said: Bowden at the Athletic proposes Jose Abreu to the Cardinals in exchange for Jose Martinez and Ryan Helsley. An interesting trade offer. Thoughts? I'll have some of what Bowen is having X2! Yeah, not in the least bit interested unless the return package starts with O'Neill or at least Hudson.
June 28, 20187 yr 6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: Below are Jose’s stats for April/May of 2018, FY 2017, & his career averages: BB %: 6.6% / 5.2% / 6.4% K %: 18.0% / 17.6% / 19.3% BABIP: .331 / .330 / .332 ISO: .224 / .248 / .221 OPS: .882 / .906 / .873 wRC+: 140 / 138 / 136 Which stats suggest an unsustainable hot streak or a sudden aging? His BABIP good luck in May simply offset his bad luck in April. Again, I really think you’re reaching here. Jose looked really damn good those first couple months. So, interestingly, I did find one thing in Abreu's stats that has clearly trended down year after year and is consistent with him actually showing an age-related decline. Here's his runs above average against 4 seam fastballs year after year: 2014: 21.6 2015: 18.4 2016: 12.4 2017: 6.2 2018: 0.4 His other performance, outside of that consistent decline, has been up and down on various pitches. In 2016 he struggled against Sliders, in 2017 he was the best in his career against sliders and changeups and splitfinger pitches, against those offspeed pitches he's gone back to doing things within the range of what he's done every other year. He's a little weak on sliders, but was worse against them in 2016. Basically though, the reason he's struggling abnormally so far is that he's getting worse against fastballs year by year.
June 28, 20187 yr 18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: So, interestingly, I did find one thing in Abreu's stats that has clearly trended down year after year and is consistent with him actually showing an age-related decline. Here's his runs above average against 4 seam fastballs year after year: 2014: 21.6 2015: 18.4 2016: 12.4 2017: 6.2 2018: 0.4 His other performance, outside of that consistent decline, has been up and down on various pitches. In 2016 he struggled against Sliders, in 2017 he was the best in his career against sliders and changeups and splitfinger pitches, against those offspeed pitches he's gone back to doing things within the range of what he's done every other year. He's a little weak on sliders, but was worse against them in 2016. Basically though, the reason he's struggling abnormally so far is that he's getting worse against fastballs year by year. Can you explain how the statistic is calculated and why there may not be embedded biases in terms of how pitchers are attacking him?
June 28, 20187 yr First multi-hit day in 13 games for Abreu apparently. Hopefully a sign of things to come.
June 28, 20187 yr Standard Batting Year Age Tm Lg G R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ IBB Awards 1994 26 CHW AL 113 106 141 34 38 101 109 61 .353 .487 .729 1.217 212 12 AS,MVP-1,SS 1995 27 CHW AL 145 102 152 27 40 111 136 74 .308 .454 .606 1.061 179 29 AS,MVP-8 1996 28 CHW AL 141 110 184 26 40 134 109 70 .349 .459 .626 1.085 178 26 AS,MVP-8 1997 29 CHW AL 146 110 184 35 35 125 109 69 .347 .456 .611 1.067 181 9 AS,MVP-3 Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 6/27/2018.
June 28, 20187 yr 6 minutes ago, Heads22 said: Standard Batting Year Age Tm Lg G R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ IBB Awards 1994 26 CHW AL 113 106 141 34 38 101 109 61 .353 .487 .729 1.217 212 12 AS,MVP-1,SS 1995 27 CHW AL 145 102 152 27 40 111 136 74 .308 .454 .606 1.061 179 29 AS,MVP-8 1996 28 CHW AL 141 110 184 26 40 134 109 70 .349 .459 .626 1.085 178 26 AS,MVP-8 1997 29 CHW AL 146 110 184 35 35 125 109 69 .347 .456 .611 1.067 181 9 AS,MVP-3 Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 6/27/2018. As much as I like Abreu he can't touch those numbers.
June 28, 20187 yr 12 minutes ago, Heads22 said: Standard Batting Year Age Tm Lg G R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ IBB Awards 1994 26 CHW AL 113 106 141 34 38 101 109 61 .353 .487 .729 1.217 212 12 AS,MVP-1,SS 1995 27 CHW AL 145 102 152 27 40 111 136 74 .308 .454 .606 1.061 179 29 AS,MVP-8 1996 28 CHW AL 141 110 184 26 40 134 109 70 .349 .459 .626 1.085 178 26 AS,MVP-8 1997 29 CHW AL 146 110 184 35 35 125 109 69 .347 .456 .611 1.067 181 9 AS,MVP-3 Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 6/27/2018. PTATC, could you take a look at these numbers and let us know what's going on? Is this better than Abreu?
June 28, 20187 yr 5 minutes ago, BlackSox13 said: As much as I like Abreu he can't touch those numbers. Frank’s 1994 might be the best non-steroid fueled offensive season of all-time.
June 28, 20187 yr 1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said: Frank’s 1994 might be the best non-steroid fueled offensive season of all-time. Absolutely! He was an all star most years but other worldly in 1994. Amazing batting eye for a man with such a big strike zone.
June 28, 20187 yr 13 minutes ago, BlackSox13 said: Absolutely! He was an all star most years but other worldly in 1994. Amazing batting eye for a man with such a big strike zone. I will never forgive him for forcing our left handed slugger to go play in Japan
June 28, 20187 yr 1 hour ago, Hot FiRe said: PTATC, could you take a look at these numbers and let us know what's going on? Is this better than Abreu? If you have to use Hall of Famers to find better hitters than a hitter you're speaking about, you're probably speaking about a very good hitter.
June 28, 20187 yr Frank's one of my favorite Sox of all time. But for a four-year stretch, I bet u only Frank, and maybe Robin and Baines had as consistently productive a four-year span (when you use regular stats BA, HR, RBI.
June 28, 20187 yr 1 minute ago, greg775 said: Frank's one of my favorite Sox of all time. But for a four-year stretch, I bet u only Frank, and maybe Robin and Baines had as consistently productive a four-year span (when you use regular stats BA, HR, RBI. Konerko 2004-2007
June 28, 20187 yr Just now, DH in the NL said: Konerko 2004-2007 Damn I forgot Paulie. I worshiped him.
June 28, 20187 yr 5 minutes ago, greg775 said: Frank's one of my favorite Sox of all time. But for a four-year stretch, I bet u only Frank, and maybe Robin and Baines had as consistently productive a four-year span (when you use regular stats BA, HR, RBI. As long as you never, ever, ever say again that "Maybe this guy not named Frank Thomas had the best hitting stretch in White Sox history" we will have accomplished something today. (Shoeless joe was also better).
June 28, 20187 yr 1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said: First multi-hit day in 13 games for Abreu apparently. Hopefully a sign of things to come. Had another ball well hit up the middle the pitcher was lucky to deflect...
June 28, 20187 yr 8 hours ago, DH in the NL said: Konerko 2004-2007 Hell, Magglio 2000-03 was even better.
June 28, 20187 yr 14 hours ago, greg775 said: Read the posts. You guys can say all you want how nobody "hates" Abreu but if you read every Abreu post there's definitely an air of negativity regarding him. I understand completely your guys' points about his projection in the future and age. I just don't agree. Only 2 years of control...you somehow keep overlooking the biggest point: his contract expires before our competitive window.
June 28, 20187 yr 11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: Can you explain how the statistic is calculated and why there may not be embedded biases in terms of how pitchers are attacking him? This is simply "statcast recognizes this pitch as a fastball/slider/etc., what is the end result". There's about 8 different versions of it on Fangraphs and all of them show the same thing; he's getting progressively weaker against fastballs every single year. You can see the end result of this in the numbers overall too; he's gradually seeing fewer and fewer changeups and more fastballs as pitchers are exploiting this developing weakness, 10% of the pitches thrown to him his first year were changeups, now only 6% are. The average velocity of fastball he's seeing has not changed, from 93.6 in 2014 to 93.5 this year, he's just gotten worse against them. To say it a different way, this is the equivalent of him having a 131 RC+ against fastballs in 2014 and a 101 RC+ against them now. This stands out enough that it's made me change my mind. Last offseason after his performance I was willing to extend him for several years, but seeing these numbers yesterday - he's gradually dropped from a great hitter to a replacement level hitter against fastballs. If I would have extended him, that would have been a $50 million+ mistake. The only way he can stay a good hitter if he can't catch up to the fastball is to get gradually better against every other pitch, and there's no sign he can do that. Unless this career long trend is turned around, and as of 2018 it has not, in a year or two he will no longer be a useful big league hitter, and choosing not to offer him a contract extension was a good move.
June 28, 20187 yr 24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: This is simply "statcast recognizes this pitch as a fastball/slider/etc., what is the end result". There's about 8 different versions of it on Fangraphs and all of them show the same thing; he's getting progressively weaker against fastballs every single year. You can see the end result of this in the numbers overall too; he's gradually seeing fewer and fewer changeups and more fastballs as pitchers are exploiting this developing weakness, 10% of the pitches thrown to him his first year were changeups, now only 6% are. The average velocity of fastball he's seeing has not changed, from 93.6 in 2014 to 93.5 this year, he's just gotten worse against them. To say it a different way, this is the equivalent of him having a 131 RC+ against fastballs in 2014 and a 101 RC+ against them now. This stands out enough that it's made me change my mind. Last offseason after his performance I was willing to extend him for several years, but seeing these numbers yesterday - he's gradually dropped from a great hitter to a replacement level hitter against fastballs. If I would have extended him, that would have been a $50 million+ mistake. The only way he can stay a good hitter if he can't catch up to the fastball is to get gradually better against every other pitch, and there's no sign he can do that. Unless this career long trend is turned around, and as of 2018 it has not, in a year or two he will no longer be a useful big league hitter, and choosing not to offer him a contract extension was a good move. Again, how do you know pitchers are simply no longer challenging Jose with fastballs and throwing more heaters out of the zone? When he came to the states, he was rumored to have “slider” bat speed and quickly put that theory to bed. I’m still skeptical you are using these numbers appropriately. Also, I’m not sure where you came up with the idea he’s seeing more and more fastballs, as that’s simply not true, at least in terms of 4 seamers which your stats are based on.
June 28, 20187 yr 12 hours ago, BlackSox13 said: I'll have some of what Bowen is having X2! Yeah, not in the least bit interested unless the return package starts with O'Neill or at least Hudson. It's not a terrible trade suggestion, especially if the Sox do not have top kick in any of Abreu's salary, but I think they would be looking for a bit more upside if they are dealing him. Helsley might continue to develop into a backend starter, and Martinez is serviceable, but this wouldn't excite me much.
June 28, 20187 yr 1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said: Again, how do you know pitchers are simply no longer challenging Jose with fastballs and throwing more heaters out of the zone? When he came to the states, he was rumored to have “slider” bat speed and quickly put that theory to bed. I’m still skeptical you are using these numbers appropriately. Also, I’m not sure where you came up with the idea he’s seeing more and more fastballs, as that’s simply not true, at least in terms of 4 seamers which your stats are based on. Because for that to be the case and for that to be why his numbers are going down, he'd have to be swinging at more balls outside the strike zone, which is also not the case. He's simply doing less damage against the standard fastball. Perhaps he did not have a slider speed bat when he came in, but he's no longer hitting fastballs as anything other than a replacement level player. Perhaps a swing overhaul could delay this. This might be one of those cases where a guy could substantially extend his career by changing his stance and opening up, so that his body is moving more towards the pitch as part of the trigger mechanism. But as of right now, this is why his numbers have gone progressively down; he's slowing down progressively as he ages and can't catch up with the fastball any more.
June 28, 20187 yr 12 hours ago, Hot FiRe said: PTATC, could you take a look at these numbers and let us know what's going on? Is this better than Abreu? Sorry, my expertise is in sports medicine.
June 28, 20187 yr 3 hours ago, SoxAce said: Hell, Magglio 2000-03 was even better. So you guys are proving me right. I said only a few guys on the Sox could have had a better four year run. I've read you guys mention a few guys which is what I said. I give up. Abreu has joined the ranks of a guy Sox fans, at least on this board, don't want around any more. They don't want him to share in the fun when we get good even though he's contributed so much to the horseshit teams. Nobody will just let his contract run out and see what happens they want him gone cause he would need a new contract to fit our competitive window. Nobody wants that except a few of us, so bye bye Jose. Many of you are OK pretty much giving him away cause of his age, get him out of here. Considering he's only worth scraps, why trade him at all? Let his contract run out and see what happens. So what if he's one guy, who just walks in free agency. Nobody's going to offer him much if it's true he's finished. Considering what you all are reporting on his decline and imminent decline, he could be signed for a reasonable contract.
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