February 18, 20197 yr For the first time in this race, I think it ends within a week. Looks like the offers are ramping up like the last big bang at a fireworks show.
February 18, 20197 yr One bright side to all this: If the Sox are forced to pay more here at the eleventh hour, I think it makes it less likely Machado exercises his earliest opt out. Without the Padres, the Sox may have gotten him for 7/220 or something, but Machado reports to camp disgruntled and already in the mindset of leaving in a couple years to seek what he's really worth.
February 18, 20197 yr $240-260 million has to be more likely given Padres’ financials, or the inclusion of deferred money in that package...or Year 2/3 opt out or swellopt or whatever. They have to be willing to go to at least $300 million or this entire 2+ year planning this out and adding Jay, Alonso, Colome, Nova, Herrera while keeping Castillo (to dump Narvaez) was all pretty much pointless... Edited February 18, 20197 yr by caulfield12
February 18, 20197 yr 5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: $240-260 million has to be more likely given Padres’ financials, or deferred money...or Year 2/3 opt out or swellopt or whatever. They are going after Harper too and nobody has described that pursuit as fake. I’d throw the Padres financials out the window, it’s clear they are gonna give this a ride. I’m definitely nervous, the Sox may be more dogmatic about player value than the Padres (see Hosmer$)
February 18, 20197 yr 1 minute ago, bmags said: They are going after Harper too and nobody has described that pursuit as fake. I’d throw the Padres financials out the window, it’s clear they are gonna give this a ride. I’m definitely nervous, the Sox may be more dogmatic about player value than the Padres (see Hosmer$) If there are deferrals or other reasons they need to be “creative,” that indicates there are some hard stops there somewhere. I don’t believe those same hard stops exist for the Sox.
February 18, 20197 yr 2 minutes ago, bmags said: They are going after Harper too and nobody has described that pursuit as fake. I’d throw the Padres financials out the window, it’s clear they are gonna give this a ride. I’m definitely nervous, the Sox may be more dogmatic about player value than the Padres (see Hosmer$) https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sd-sp-padres-wil-myers-hair-outfield-0217-story.html Wil Myers is all ready for the Battle of the Best West Coast Hair with Harper and Hosmer.
February 18, 20197 yr 29 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said: One bright side to all this: If the Sox are forced to pay more here at the eleventh hour, I think it makes it less likely Machado exercises his earliest opt out. Without the Padres, the Sox may have gotten him for 7/220 or something, but Machado reports to camp disgruntled and already in the mindset of leaving in a couple years to seek what he's really worth. Excellent point here. Great conclusion.
February 18, 20197 yr 11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: And if he opts out in two years, then plenty of teams can out-bid. There is no positive spin to Machado signing with the Padres over us. The potential positive spin is, as always, that we might avoid a bad deal.
February 18, 20197 yr 2 minutes ago, Jake said: The potential positive spin is, as always, that we might avoid a bad deal. See Alex Gordon, Cespedes, Adam Dunn, Tanaka, etc.,...but that’s guaranteed not to sell any tickets or get anyone to tune in at home.
February 18, 20197 yr 3 minutes ago, Jake said: The potential positive spin is, as always, that we might avoid a bad deal. What would be that "breaking point" of a bad deal? If Machado ends of signing with the Padres (which I doubt), what's the deal that we say, "Thank God we didn't pay that."?
February 18, 20197 yr 1 minute ago, caulfield12 said: See Alex Gordon, Cespedes, Adam Dunn, Tanaka, etc.,...but that’s guaranteed not to sell any tickets or get anyone to tune in at home. We got a seat at the table though. That's worth something right?
February 18, 20197 yr 1 minute ago, Baron said: We got a seat at the table though. That's worth something right? If we end up hearing that, we'll be calling for Hahn's head.
February 18, 20197 yr 4 minutes ago, hogan873 said: What would be that "breaking point" of a bad deal? If Machado ends of signing with the Padres (which I doubt), what's the deal that we say, "Thank God we didn't pay that."? Honestly impossible to guess at this point. If he plays as he has for the last 4 years, with revenues growing over time a 10/$400 deal could look like a good deal at the end. He's been worth more than $40 million a year in his performance over the last 4 years on average. If he got hurt or stopped caring early...then maybe not. At the rates the White Sox have spent for free agents, a 10/$500 deal could very well be the best spending on the free agent market for the White Sox over the last decade.
February 18, 20197 yr 6 minutes ago, hogan873 said: What would be that "breaking point" of a bad deal? If Machado ends of signing with the Padres (which I doubt), what's the deal that we say, "Thank God we didn't pay that."? Depends on 8/9/10 years also...but I’d say $325/330 is the very upper bound and $350 million is at least defensible (from an ownership perspective). Still, if it’s the Padres and not Phillies or a larger market team, it’s an incredibly enduring psychological blow to a fanbase who was dreaming “what if?” for almost the entire offseason. There won’t be tangible any reason to have faith we will actually be willing to overpay that star player next offseason, that’s for sure. Edited February 18, 20197 yr by caulfield12
February 18, 20197 yr Just now, Balta1701 said: Honestly impossible to guess at this point. If he plays as he has for the last 4 years, with revenues growing over time a 10/$400 deal could look like a good deal at the end. He's been worth more than $40 million a year in his performance over the last 4 years on average. If he got hurt or stopped caring early...then maybe not. Good point. Maybe if he signs a deal worth $40M a year somewhere else, the first reaction might be "good thing it wasn't with the Sox", but he's probably worth that. a couple years down the road, things could look different, but who knows.
February 18, 20197 yr Can’t wait to be completely unproductive today. Time for Hahn and Jerry to get this done!
February 18, 20197 yr 1 minute ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said: Can’t wait to be completely unproductive today. Time for Hahn and Jerry to get this done! I wish I had a dollar for every time "get this done" was said, on this site!
February 18, 20197 yr 1 minute ago, Saufley said: I wish I had a dollar for every time "get this done" was said, on this site!
February 18, 20197 yr I am confident that Heyman will tweet information that only an insider can provide: that when 3 teams are after 2 players, then at least one of those teams will be shut out and not get a player. Edited February 18, 20197 yr by GreenSox
February 18, 20197 yr Not to put a dampen on the mood, but I just have the sinking feeling that this will turn out like Torii Hunter or Cespedes. I really hope I'm wrong, but it's just setting up to be the same movie we've seen over and over again.
February 18, 20197 yr 2 minutes ago, GreenSox said: I am confident that Heyman will tweet information that only an insider can provide: that when 3 teams are after 2 players, then at least one of those teams will be shut out and not get a player. Oh absolutely. And don’t forget the Hector tweet about how his 8/250 was accurate.
February 18, 20197 yr 1 minute ago, Soxnfins said: Not to put a dampen on the mood, but I just have the sinking feeling that this will turn out like Torii Hunter or Cespedes. I really hope I'm wrong, but it's just setting up to be the same movie we've seen over and over again. Get out of here with that!
February 18, 20197 yr If the Sox are serious about free agents next year I feel like they should wait til February to jump in and be the “mystery team.” Being “at the table” in December means you have to wait 2 more months for something to happen because the offer we made wasn’t good enough. Hahn can keep his “at the table” bullshit narrative for himself. Someone in this front office needs to be hired that specializes in getting the deals done.
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