June 17, 20196 yr 6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: Merkin straight up said he's here to stay. I don't think he makes that definitive of a comment of the org didn't tell him that was the plan. Oh, I did not see that. That's interesting.
June 17, 20196 yr I am expecting some major struggles early, but hopefully with time he can adjust with time.
June 17, 20196 yr I'm looking forward to seeing Collins. He's not a perfect player but he might be perfect for this team. He's a left handed bat who will get on base and knock the ball out of the yard. He and Eloy are going to be fun to watch.
June 17, 20196 yr 4 hours ago, Moan4Yoan said: I do think he will struggle with strikeouts and his AVG as he did in the minors but what is fake OBP? I believe he said something along the lines that Collins OBP is due to him not swinging, and not necessarily his ability to identify balls and strikes. I’m not sure how true this is, but maybe someone who has actually seen Collins consistently can weigh in how much of this is true. I don’t think Collins will have a 20% walk rate in the majors, but I can’t imagine it’s going to fall off a cliff.
June 17, 20196 yr 5 minutes ago, Hatchetman said: I am expecting some major struggles early, but hopefully with time he can adjust with time. Yep. Hit him 7th and left him figure it out. Much better to watch him (probably) struggle than watch Alonso struggle.
June 17, 20196 yr I want him to do really well. I am afraid we might see .190/ .250/ .375 Edited June 17, 20196 yr by BamaDoc
June 17, 20196 yr Just now, BamaDoc said: I want him to do really well. I am afraid we might see .190/ .250/ .375 I think that he's going to put up Alonso numbers, but I'd rather it be him than Alonso.
June 17, 20196 yr I think Collins can be a 230/330/450 type at 1B/C , like a 2 WAR player. Useful guy to have on the roste especially as a lefty bat. That said this year I expect him to scuffle, something like 210/300/400 would be decent as a rookie.
June 17, 20196 yr Is it possible his projected average still improves as he gets older/better? Is there a chance he could become a .250 hitter?
June 17, 20196 yr 19 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said: Is it possible his projected average still improves as he gets older/better? Is there a chance he could become a .250 hitter? His ceiling is prime Adam Dunn. Think of some of Dunn's worst seasons and average them. I think if he's a hit, the most likely scenario you're looking at .240/.360/.825 with 30 HR, in an Evan Gattis role as C/1B/DH. Overall most likely, I'd go .220/.340/.780 with 25 HR Edited June 17, 20196 yr by Jack Parkman
June 17, 20196 yr FYI Collins MiLB career splits are vs. RHP .247/.396/.463, .859 OPS, .216 ISO, 19.94 BB%, 27.78 K%, .326 BABIP. 201 BB, 280 K. 38 HR. 49 2B. 4 3B. 133 RBI. 793 AB. vs. LHP .200/.330/.356, .686 OPS, .156 ISO, 15.83 BB%, 32.69 K%, .281 BABIP. 56 BB, 119 K. 11 HR. 11 2B. 1 3B. 45 RBI. 295 AB. I think Collins will do just fine against RHP.
June 17, 20196 yr 4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: His ceiling is prime Adam Dunn. Think of some of Dunn's worst seasons and average them. I think if he's a hit, the most likely scenario you're looking at .240/.360/.825 with 30 HR, in an Evan Gattis role as C/1B/DH. Overall most likely, I'd go .220/.340/.780 with 25 HR I'm assuming your third slashes are OPS but I am hoping that we get some years from Collins that are similar to what you are seeing out of Joc Pederson this year. Joc is slashing .233/.335/.565. If in his peak years if he can really leverage his power by being selective and focusing on pitches he can drive, you would see a very productive player essentially driven by walks and power even with a low avg.
June 17, 20196 yr 4 minutes ago, bmags said: I'm assuming your third slashes are OPS but I am hoping that we get some years from Collins that are similar to what you are seeing out of Joc Pederson this year. Joc is slashing .233/.335/.565. If in his peak years if he can really leverage his power by being selective and focusing on pitches he can drive, you would see a very productive player essentially driven by walks and power even with a low avg. Two main questions are 1) will that power flash (doubt he ever produces a crazy line like that with a ISO of 325 but > 250 would be awesome) and 2) can he play a passable catcher twice a week until he's 30 or so? If he can do both he's a borderline star and a helluva useful player. If he hits but can't catch and is only a DH/1B that limits him but still worth rostering. If he can catch but can't hit then I guess he's the backup catcher long term, That probably is the least likely outcome.
June 17, 20196 yr 4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said: Two main questions are 1) will that power flash (doubt he ever produces a crazy line like that with a ISO of 325 but > 250 would be awesome) and 2) can he play a passable catcher twice a week until he's 30 or so? If he can do both he's a borderline star and a helluva useful player. If he hits but can't catch and is only a DH/1B that limits him but still worth rostering. If he can catch but can't hit then I guess he's the backup catcher long term, That probably is the least likely outcome. Yeah, and let's not compare him even to McCann level defense but of Castillo, who was among the worst rated defensive catchers this year. Catchers in terms of framing have improved quite a bit so the worst isn't nearly as bad as 5-6 years ago. Even if he's a bad catcher, if he's Wellington Castillo bad but can provide offense than that's fine with me.
June 17, 20196 yr What makes Collins a bit of an enigma is that his numbers have stayed so consistent as he's moved up the minor league levels. It gives me hope that Collins could once again maintain at a .235/.370/.450 type level of production in the majors, which would work whether he's at catcher, DH, or first. But if the jump to the majors finally leads to a material decrease in productivity, we're looking at a guy would could be a .200/.300/.350 type, which wouldn't even cut it at catcher.
June 17, 20196 yr 5 hours ago, Juschill said: Somebody on these boards was going to move his or her family to Nashville based on their failure to land Machado this past offseason. The aforementioned leaps pale in comparison. No, I decided to take an opportunity and move my family to Nashville because I decided I had to grow up and not put a baseball team above everything in my life. Had the Sox signed Machado, I may not have been as rational and pushed to stick around. This is the exact opposite of what I’m calling MoanForYoan out for.
June 17, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, Greg Hibbard said: Is it possible his projected average still improves as he gets older/better? Is there a chance he could become a .250 hitter? He K’s quite a bit because he’s over selective, so yeah I think with time he can improve his batting average by being a little bit more aggressive in certain situations just like Moncada.
June 17, 20196 yr I think if Collins can actually serve as backup catcher/ 1st baseman while being primary DH that is a very key player. Most teams have a DH that has no position where they are not a liability. I don't expect Collins to initially be all that good. In general I support bringing up any of the future guys as soon as possible. I really don't care about their mistakes as much as getting the exposure to major leagues. Almost any player has some level of being overmatched for a bit. Historically even the future hall of fame guys don't have barn burner first years. Bring em up and get the party started.
June 17, 20196 yr I think we're all working overtime mentally to wishcast some formulation of Collins that is better than he actually is. A three-true-outcomes 1B (or pretty bad defensive catcher for a team that couldn't stand Narvaez) is barely above next year's crop of DFAs. I'm hoping for the best, like @bmags said, maybe a Joc Pederson type offensive peak if all goes right, but I don't think he'll be a "borderline star."
June 17, 20196 yr If there's one thing I've noticed, evaluation of a minor league catcher's defense is usually really bad. People simply don't know enough about what they're seeing to make a proper evaluation. Catcher is a very nuanced position. Collins might not be a future star, but to say he's a barely above DFA level is fucking absurd.
June 17, 20196 yr 16 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said: If there's one thing I've noticed, evaluation of a minor league catcher's defense is usually really bad. People simply don't know enough about what they're seeing to make a proper evaluation. Catcher is a very nuanced position. Collins might not be a future star, but to say he's a barely above DFA level is fucking absurd. Even if Collins isn't really a catcher, just being an early career version of Evan Gattis / Mike Napoli would provide a fair amount of value.
June 17, 20196 yr 33 minutes ago, hi8is said: Pinch hit him the Cubs series against RHP relief and then start him in Arlington. Yep.
June 17, 20196 yr Now I'm feeling like people underrate his potential to break out offensively. I wouldn't bank on it, but I still see Collins as someone whose upside is a pretty valuable player.
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