3 minutes ago, Orlando said:

The Reds aren’t the team that scares me. The twins do. If they see the Sox as a legitimate threat , I can see them taking Wheeler bidding to an uncomfortable level for the Sox

Based on what exactly? What have the Twins ever done to lead you to believe that they would be the organization to bid high enough to make the Sox uncomfortable? 

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Based on what exactly? What have the Twins ever done to lead you to believe that they would be the organization to bid high enough to make the Sox uncomfortable? 

I mean I believe literally every organization can be the one to bid high enough to make the White Sox uncomfortable.

9 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

I think the Sox are ready to go 5/110 for Wheeler.  They may have already offered him that.  But with Wheeler's market reportedly blowing up the way it has, I'm starting to think someone may throw him a 6/125 offer.

"Ya gotta know when to hold em...and when to fold em"  Our job is to get our targets at the fair market price.  Sometimes you have to walk away if the other guys get stupid.  I don't really see that happening in this case.  If we really offer 100-110 for 5 years I think we win.  Someone who wants him for 125 and 6 years can have him IMO.

With seemingly few rumors about Cole or Strasburg, Zack is the big catch now.  As others have said, the longer this goes on the less I like the Sox' chances of landing Wheeler.

5 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I mean I believe literally every organization can be the one to bid high enough to make the White Sox uncomfortable.

Fair point lol

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Based on what exactly? What have the Twins ever done to lead you to believe that they would be the organization to bid high enough to make the Sox uncomfortable? 

Obviously change may be on the horizon but Wheeler is literally the anti White Sox signing. A pitcher for more than 5 years over 100 mil. Throw on top of that the fact that he has injury history and I think almost any team in baseball can take it to a level that will make the Sox bow out. I hope I’m wrong but I see the Twins as a team that has tasted winning and will do what it takes to stay on top of the division. This is all gut feelings and past history that makes me feel this way. 

Edited December 2, 20196 yr by Orlando

1 minute ago, Orlando said:

Obviously change may be on the horizon but Wheeler is literally the anti White Sox signing. A pitcher for more than 5 years over 100 mil. Throw on top of that the fact that he has injury history and I think almost any team in baseball can take it to a level that will make the Sox bow out. I hope I’m wrong but I see the Twins as a team who has tasted winning and will do what it takes to stay on top of the division. This is all gut feelings and past history that makes me feel this way. 

I mean, if the twins want to give him 6/$125M+, so be it.  5/$100M would be my max on Wheeler.  Even at those years and dollars there is a better than 50/50 chance that contract turns into a real mess.  I know its a risk the Sox need to take, but at some point he just gets to the point to where you may as well pay up for Strasburg or Cole.

11 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I mean, if the twins want to give him 6/$125M+, so be it.  5/$100M would be my max on Wheeler.  Even at those years and dollars there is a better than 50/50 chance that contract turns into a real mess.  I know its a risk the Sox need to take, but at some point he just gets to the point to where you may as well pay up for Strasburg or Cole.

My opinion is that Strasburg is every bit as risky as Wheeler. Stras is a better pitcher. 

Every pitcher could turn into a hot mess. You just don't know. That shouldn't stop your organization from trying, even if you get burned a few times. 

Edited December 2, 20196 yr by Jack Parkman

There's been smoke around the Twins, but I don't think they are the biggest threat to the Sox on Wheeler.  I think it's the Phillies.  They need to sign a good starter this offseason to compete in that division, but I don't think they want to get into a bidding war with the Angels/Yankees at the top of the market.

2 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

There's been smoke around the Twins, but I don't think they are the biggest threat to the Sox on Wheeler.  I think it's the Phillies.  They need to sign a good starter this offseason to compete in that division, but I don't think they want to get into a bidding war with the Angels/Yankees at the top of the market.

The Phillies scare the shit out of me as a Sox fan. They've proven they'll pay to play. 

18 minutes ago, Orlando said:

Obviously change may be on the horizon but Wheeler is literally the anti White Sox signing. A pitcher for more than 5 years over 100 mil. Throw on top of that the fact that he has injury history and I think almost any team in baseball can take it to a level that will make the Sox bow out. I hope I’m wrong but I see the Twins as a team that has tasted winning and will do what it takes to stay on top of the division. This is all gut feelings and past history that makes me feel this way. 

I agree with your take, but what is the Twins largest contract ever given to a pitcher? The Sox gave John Danks 63 million at least.

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I agree with your take, but what is the Twins largest contract ever given to a pitcher? The Sox gave John Danks 63 million at least.

4/$54M to Ervin Santana, I believe.  

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

4/$54M to Ervin Santana, I believe.  

Other highest was 4/$49M to Ricky Nolasko.  

I am going to set my expectations surrounding Wheeler low. That way I cant be disappointed if it doesn't happen. I can also be overly happy if it does. 

(Ok I may be wanting Wheeler to sign with the Sox a lot.)

If they miss on Wheeler and end up with Dallas Keuchel I'm going to be consumed with rage.

I would be devastated if he signed with the hated Twins. I hate the Twins.

If the sox can't sign the third best pitcher on the FA market after shedding nearly all salary on a 3 year rebuild, then I'm not optimistic. 

At this point I'm less interested in payroll efficiency than stacking wins. If you want efficiency, don't play FA and you better have a damn good intl operation and PD staff. Sox have neither, so I don't want them saying "oh we would have signed wheeler at 5/100 but 6/120 is too much."

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

If the sox can't sign the third best pitcher on the FA market after shedding nearly all salary on a 3 year rebuild, then I'm not optimistic. 

At this point I'm less interested in payroll efficiency than stacking wins. If you want efficiency, don't play FA and you better have a damn good intl operation and PD staff. Sox have either, so I don't want them saying "oh we would have signed wheeler at 5/100 but 6/120 is too much."

I'm with you. I think Wheeler is going to end up in Corbin territory. 

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

If the sox can't sign the third best pitcher on the FA market after shedding nearly all salary on a 3 year rebuild, then I'm not optimistic. 

At this point I'm less interested in payroll efficiency than stacking wins. If you want efficiency, don't play FA and you better have a damn good intl operation and PD staff. Sox have either, so I don't want them saying "oh we would have signed wheeler at 5/100 but 6/120 is too much."

I mean, I think they should certainly have a ceiling and if someone greatly overspends what they valued the ceiling to be, they should move on. They shouldn't spend recklessly just to spend, but their valuations better not be significantly lower than everyone else also....

I wouldn't give Wheeler 6 years, 135 million for example - that would be reckless and you'd be better off playing in the big boy pool if you were going to invest that much. They certainly have to have ceilings, but they better be reasonable and built on the premise that FA = Overpay.

What’s the sp fa class like next year? 

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm with you. I think Wheeler is going to end up in Corbin territory. 

I would rather have Ryu and Castellanos for same price as Wheeler

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm with you. I think Wheeler is going to end up in Corbin territory. 

No way - I actually argued pretty extensively that he would be a hell of a lot closer to Corbin than projections had him at; at FG's and other outlets, so I don't disagree with the basis of your argument. Their valuation of Wheeler was laughably low, but he's not going to get Corbin money I don't think. Corbin just had more advantages and more going for him than Wheeler.

I'd be shocked if he got more than 110 and even more shocked if he got 6 years.

Edited December 2, 20196 yr by Look at Ray Ray Run

1 minute ago, fathom said:

I would rather have Ryu and Castellanos for same price as Wheeler

but if that total is driven by the extra years...who cares.

You will not have Castellanos and Ryu at the 2020 budget of Wheeler (nor 2021)

I just don't get this obssession of 2025 as dramatically more important than 2020. You can trade these dudes if you just need money. If you need to recoup good prospects? Then it's an issue.

1 minute ago, bmags said:

but if that total is driven by the extra years...who cares.

You will not have Castellanos and Ryu at the 2020 budget of Wheeler (nor 2021)

I just don't get this obssession of 2025 as dramatically more important than 2020. You can trade these dudes if you just need money. If you need to recoup good prospects? Then it's an issue.

I’m thinking more for next 3 years, and I also don’t think you would want Wheeler in that 5th year.

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

No way - I actually argued pretty extensively that he would be a hell of a lot closer to Corbin than projections had him at; at FG's and other outlets. Their valuation of Wheeler was laughably low, but he's not going to get Corbin money I don't think. Corbin just had more advantages and more going for him than Wheeler.

Wheeler has a more robust market. I think he stays on the East Coast, with either the Yankees or Phillies. I don't think the Sox are going to go to the level to get the job done. 

If Wheeler's market is really in the 4/$80 or 5$100 range, I think he would have signed already.  I'm starting to think that it's going to take at least 6/130 to get the job done.