8 minutes ago, Quin said:

Philly just fired their GM and if they enter a rebuild, Harper may want to bail.

I agree with this to an extent but I don't think he'll want to leave this soon in the contract. Especially after he made such a big deal about signing that contract with his long-term home in mind

I think Philly would jump at the chance to offload Harper's contract.  They spent a bunch of money and made a number of win-now moves at the expense of their future (i.e. trading Sixto for Realmuto, who's now a free agent) and things are trending in the wrong direction for them.  You typically don't force out your GM without a strong desire to go in a different direction.

Now whether the Sox (or anyone else) is interested in taking on Harper's contract is a different question.

Sox won't take on Harper contract. This core is going to get really expensive in the next 3-4 years. If they do take on a contract like that, they pretty much have to win now and tear it down shortly after that.

7 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Sox won't take on Harper contract. This core is going to get really expensive in the next 3-4 years. If they do take on a contract like that, they pretty much have to win now and tear it down shortly after that.

Most of the core is already signed to long term deals.

Just now, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Most of the core is already signed to long term deals.

Yeah but their annual price goes up. So the team salary number goes up. I think we have a lot coming off the books by 2023 to offset this however. 

The Harper contract might actually be a bargain if things get back to normal in the next few years.

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The Harper contract might actually be a bargain if things get back to normal in the next few years.

He also seems like the kind of player who will age well, even if he's a 1B/DH during those last 3 years

God. Now I have my hopes up for a Harper addition. Thanks, guys 

I am insane?  Didn't Klentak "resign" because the owner was pissed they didn't make the playoffs?  What evidence is there that the Phillies are rebuilding?  They have a pretty good major league team and a bad farm system.  That seems to mean they'll try to resign Realmutto and compete next year, right?

45 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Most of the core is already signed to long term deals.

By 2024, Gio, Grandal, and Keuchel are FAs and need to be replaced, Kopech is entering his last year of arb. The group of Robert, Moncada, TA, and Eloy makes $70M alone. Add Harper to the team and you're looking at $100M for just 5 players.

1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said:

He also seems like the kind of player who will age well, even if he's a 1B/DH during those last 3 years

Harper's contract is roughly 274M not including signing bonuses; and hes projected to produce 284M in value at 35.5 fWAR, so his surplus value is likely more than 10M when you factor in inflation. If Philadelphia is going to rebuild I'd welcome him on this team seeing how most of the core is locked up. The question then becomes how much if any is Philly willing to kick in to move his contract and could we also get Wheeler added into the mix?

 

1 hour ago, Timmy U said:

I am insane?  Didn't Klentak "resign" because the owner was pissed they didn't make the playoffs?  What evidence is there that the Phillies are rebuilding?  They have a pretty good major league team and a bad farm system.  That seems to mean they'll try to resign Realmutto and compete next year, right?

This.  Philly isn't going to just hand us Bryce Harper.  You guys are nuts.  

If the Sox were going to trade for any Phillies player, it should be Zack Wheeler. Pitching is the biggest need and Wheeler is obviously significantly cheaper than Harper.

29 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

If the Sox were going to trade for any Phillies player, it should be Zack Wheeler. Pitching is the biggest need and Wheeler is obviously significantly cheaper than Harper.

Or Nola

Unless Uncle Jerry is planning $200M+ payrolls long-term, Harper isn’t happening even if the Phillies would just give us his contract.  I’ll keep saying it, but I think Oscar Colas is the name people need to peg for RF starting in 2022.

Is this thread a time warp?  Harper and Wheeler?

 

 

Edited October 5, 20205 yr by turnin' two

35 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

If the Sox were going to trade for any Phillies player, it should be Zack Wheeler. Pitching is the biggest need and Wheeler is obviously significantly cheaper than Harper.

Why not both? 

We need a SP and RF.

Trade Kopech, Vaughn, Madrigal for Harper + Wheeler. Then sign Cesar Hernandez or Kolten Wong to play 2B

8 minutes ago, CeaseAndExist said:

Why not both? 

We need a SP and RF.

Trade Kopech, Vaughn, Madrigal for Harper + Wheeler. Then sign Cesar Hernandez or Kolten Wong to play 2B

Because we’d be completely fucked financially if we traded three cost controlled guys projected to be above average regulars for two dudes making ~$50M/year.

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Unless Uncle Jerry is planning $200M+ payrolls long-term, Harper isn’t happening even if the Phillies would just give us his contract.  I’ll keep saying it, but I think Oscar Colas is the name people need to peg for RF starting in 2022.

Isn’t Oscar Colas like a 50 FV prospect? Penciling him in for anything seems aggressive. 

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Isn’t Oscar Colas like a 50 FV prospect? Penciling him in for anything seems aggressive. 

I’m not saying he will 100% be the guy, but my guess is the Sox sign him with every intention of him being our starting RF in 2022.  And IMO, that means they won’t purposely block him with an expensive, multi-year addition this offseason.

3 hours ago, beautox said:

Harper's contract is roughly 274M not including signing bonuses; and hes projected to produce 284M in value at 35.5 fWAR, so his surplus value is likely more than 10M when you factor in inflation. If Philadelphia is going to rebuild I'd welcome him on this team seeing how most of the core is locked up. The question then becomes how much if any is Philly willing to kick in to move his contract and could we also get Wheeler added into the mix?

Does a team like the Sox care about estimated excess value ? If our payroll is beyond a point that Jerry wants to pay how do you pay a whole team with one guy making that much for that long ? Stars and scrubs and not a lot of winning.  Cheap youth, supplemented with short term veteran contracts with a payroll perhaps maxing out slightly above mid league level is the only way Reinsdorf wants to win a Championship. I fear Covid and  looming labor dispute can sabotage the rebuild quickly. Give Jerry a reason to cut the budget and it's going to happen. I was planning to have the team payroll up near $175M but it's not feasible with the losses we have incurred. Not that it will ever come as direct as that.

Edited October 6, 20205 yr by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

3 hours ago, beautox said:

Harper's contract is roughly 274M not including signing bonuses; and hes projected to produce 284M in value at 35.5 fWAR, so his surplus value is likely more than 10M when you factor in inflation. If Philadelphia is going to rebuild I'd welcome him on this team seeing how most of the core is locked up. The question then becomes how much if any is Philly willing to kick in to move his contract and could we also get Wheeler added into the mix?

Wouldn't acquiring Harper now be roughly the same as if the Sox had won the Machado sweepstakes? Not that I think there's a chance in hell Harper happens, but as fans we can't be expected to believe that "the money was spent". Grandal and Keuchel and all the one year fillers were gonna need to happen regardless of a Manny acquisition.

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m not saying he will 100% be the guy, but my guess is the Sox sign him with every intention of him being our starting RF in 2022.  And IMO, that means they won’t purposely block him with an expensive, multi-year addition this offseason.

Fangraphs says Colas will likely be FV 35. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat-2-21-20/.

He's a marginal MLB prospect, basically like a 2nd-3rd rd college draft pick

50 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Does a team like the Sox care about estimated excess value ? If our payroll is beyond a point that Jerry wants to pay how do you pay a whole team with one guy making that much for that long ? Stars and scrubs and not a lot of winning.  Cheap youth, supplemented with short term veteran contracts with a payroll perhaps maxing out slightly above mid league level is the only way Reinsdorf wants to win a Championship. I fear Covid and  looming labor dispute can sabotage the rebuild quickly. Give Jerry a reason to cut the budget and it's going to happen. I was planning to have the team payroll up near $175M but it's not feasible with the losses we have incurred. Not that it will ever come as direct as that.

Payroll cuts are going to be a reality for every MLB team though. Teams like the Indians and DBacks are looking at massive cutbacks. Proportionally, I don't see much changing with where the Sox payroll ranks.

1 minute ago, CeaseAndExist said:

Fangraphs says Colas will likely be FV 35. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat-2-21-20/.

He's a marginal MLB prospect, basically like a 2nd-3rd rd college draft pick

I can tell you Fangraphs is way off with that valuation.