The shortened season is a terrible way to evaluate young pitchers imo. Every pitch is amplified and it's hard to find any kind of rhythm. For a kid like Cease, who struggles with command, it's a nightmare scenario if he starts poorly. I've been a broken record, but I hate everything about this season, especially for us. 

Edited October 3, 20205 yr by TaylorStSox

I think notice has been served that nothing is guaranteed.  For years we could allow guys to learn on the job, less so now.  Reports were that Lopez was not only surprised he was pulled from his start but angry when he was sent to Schaumburg.  Good!  He pitched better when he came back but was not on the first round playoff roster.  For a guy who struggles with focus this may be the best thing to happen to him.  Cease pitched in relief game 2 indicating we didn't think he was worth starting game 3.  Notice served.  Dunning pulled in first inning.  Notice served to all that the leash is shorter.  Rodon has to be wondering if he will be released.  If they all are back, I bet they can all count to five and know that they are in a competition and better bring it.  

Next year's starting rotation could be: Giolito, Keuchel, Kopech, Crochet and the 5th starter, a battle between Cease and Dunning. Keep in mind that provided (and that's big IF) that someone qualified enough to tweak Cease and Dunning in the off season and make them both productive again, then it wouldn't be a bad idea IMO to go to a 6 man rotation. The advantages theoretically would be: 1. We would have a deep enough rotation to get away with it. We wouldn't burn out their arms throughout the hopefully 162 game season. 2. Since our bullpen has many question marks, with a 6 man rotation, you wouldn't have to baby them on pitch count. You could go over 100 pitches each game and hopefully let them go 7 innings, thus only having to use the bullpen for 9 outs. Each starter would be fine with 6 days rest now. We have enough good bullpen pitchers to handle that....without throwing in guys like Cordero, Fry and Gonzalez to lose the game for us. Obviously keeping the current coaching staff, this isn't remotely a possibility. LOL!

 

They will give both a chance to figure it out because 162 games is more forgiving than 60 and it’s cheaper than acquiring a SP. 

21 minutes ago, ejm3 said:

Next year's starting rotation could be: Giolito, Keuchel, Kopech, Crochet and the 5th starter, a battle between Cease and Dunning. Keep in mind that provided (and that's big IF) that someone qualified enough to tweak Cease and Dunning in the off season and make them both productive again, then it wouldn't be a bad idea IMO to go to a 6 man rotation. The advantages theoretically would be: 1. We would have a deep enough rotation to get away with it. We wouldn't burn out their arms throughout the hopefully 162 game season. 2. Since our bullpen has many question marks, with a 6 man rotation, you wouldn't have to baby them on pitch count. You could go over 100 pitches each game and hopefully let them go 7 innings, thus only having to use the bullpen for 9 outs. Each starter would be fine with 6 days rest now. We have enough good bullpen pitchers to handle that....without throwing in guys like Cordero, Fry and Gonzalez to lose the game for us. Obviously keeping the current coaching staff, this isn't remotely a possibility. LOL!

 

Crochet is no where near ready for the innings load and stress of a big league starter. Kopech as well. If you got 200 innings between both of them that wouldn’t be a bad year. You need at least another arm in there, maybe two, just to have enough for innings.

On 10/2/2020 at 2:35 PM, supernuke said:

I would prefer:

Person X
Giolito
Keuchel
Person Y
Cease

Dunning/Kopech etc.

I think this is what we see.

Giolito

Stroman/Bauer (former much more likely)

Keuchel

Cease

Quintana (or some other 1 year stop gap SP)

Dunning starts the year in AAA. I am sure he'll be needed before too long.  Kopech arrives in mid June/early July.  Neither Dunning or Kopech can be expected to throw 150+ innings next year.  

I think one of Cease or Dunning is getting traded for a RF this offseason, though.  So that will change things. 

With his lack of control and inability to get out of the 5th inning in many starts, I could see Cease going to the pen before Dunning.

4 minutes ago, knightni said:

With his lack of control and inability to get out of the 5th inning in many starts, I could see Cease going to the pen before Dunning.

I could also Cease starting in AAA as a starter if things break right.

On 10/2/2020 at 12:28 PM, Balta1701 said:

Even if they sign someone else, they should be. This is not the season to judge a guy to be a failure based on 10 starts, especially not the first 10-20 starts of their career. It should be:

Person X
Giolito
Keuchel
Dunning
Cease
Person Q/Lopez/Kopech/Steiver and others.

This - they both should absolutely be in the rotation. Lopez is the one who is on the out and hopefully he is able to make the necessary changes and step up next year - I'm sure there will be an opportunity if he looks the part (whether out of the bullpen or in spring training, etc).  I really don't think the Sox need to do much in the rotation - other than finding creative ways to get an ace (Bauer).  

If you can't get an ace in the off-season, maybe a one year stop-gap while counting on young guys to get better and if they don't, at the trade deadline look to be aggressive.  

Lopez should be kept because he is healthy enough to pitch. Rodon should be non-tendered due to chronic injuries. 

26 minutes ago, pcq said:

Lopez should be kept because he is healthy enough to pitch. Rodon should be non-tendered due to chronic injuries. 

Rodon will be without a doubt non-tendered.

But wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox try to get him back on a cheap 1 year deal.  

Rodon may be in minor league deal territory when the Sox non-tender him, quite frankly.  

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Rodon will be without a doubt non-tendered.

But wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox try to get him back on a cheap 1 year deal.  

Rodon may be in minor league deal territory when the Sox non-tender him, quite frankly.  

I’d be shocked if he wants to return if he’s non-tendered

6 minutes ago, fathom said:

I’d be shocked if he wants to return if he’s non-tendered

Perhaps, but I don't think many, if any, teams are going to be beating down his door to hand him guaranteed dollars.  

Dunning won't be ready for a full season next year so his innings will be limited but I would expect Cease to slot in the 5th spot.

42 minutes ago, BigHurt3515 said:

Dunning won't be ready for a full season next year so his innings will be limited but I would expect Cease to slot in the 5th spot.

Why won't he be ready?

Dunning is a big boy. I’m expecting 30+ starts and 170-185 innings. 

5 minutes ago, knightni said:

Why won't he be ready?

You think he is built up to throw 180+ innings plus playoffs?

2 hours ago, fathom said:

I’d be shocked if he wants to return if he’s non-tendered

Rodon is an annoyance at this point. Hasta los Huevos.

3 minutes ago, BigHurt3515 said:

You think he is built up to throw 180+ innings plus playoffs?

Cease averaged 4 innings a start in A ball and parts of other levels.

They had no issues with making him a starter.

5 minutes ago, BigHurt3515 said:

You think he is built up to throw 180+ innings plus playoffs?

They will get him there if he is ready.  The Sox are really good at this, especially if they can get a real spring training and get guys ready.

16 minutes ago, pcq said:

Rodon is an annoyance at this point. Hasta los Huevos.

What about eggs?

Absolutely baffled by the responses here.

ERA aside, Dunning showed significantly more than Cease has at any point in the majors, despite coming off of TJ.  His peripherals were light years better - we don't want to accept it, but Cease was painfully lucky and one of the worst pitchers in baseball per his xFIP and other predictive measures, and he didn't strike anyone out!

I think there's a very real possibility Cease isn't a long-term starter.  Dunning, on the other hand, I feel pretty confident as a middle of the rotation starter moving forward.  

I hope I'm wrong about Dylan but this year was way way worse than his ERA indicated.  He's young, but the command was really, really bad.

Edited October 7, 20205 yr by username

4 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think this is what we see.

Giolito

Stroman/Bauer (former much more likely)

Keuchel

Cease

Quintana (or some other 1 year stop gap SP)

Dunning starts the year in AAA. I am sure he'll be needed before too long.  Kopech arrives in mid June/early July.  Neither Dunning or Kopech can be expected to throw 150+ innings next year.  

I think one of Cease or Dunning is getting traded for a RF this offseason, though.  So that will change things. 

I don’t see how a team lacking starting pitching depth is trading a young, cost-controlled starter for more offense.  I really don’t think we trade Dunning or Cease unless it’s for an established TOR starter.

3 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Perhaps, but I don't think many, if any, teams are going to be beating down his door to hand him guaranteed dollars.  

A rebuilding team will almost certainly give him a cheap major league deal.

I think you have to pencil them in at this point, but wouldn't hate a guy like Dunning sliding into a 6th starter/Ross Stripling type role that he sort of moved into with the Dodgers. You need more than 5 starters. Plus, next year he will be 26. He's at the point where you use him at the MLB level (whether as a mainstay in rotation or 6th starter type role) or move him for another need (I do think we see one of Cease/Dunning moved, especially if we could sign 2 starters).

Edited October 8, 20205 yr by soxfan2014