Sox give no qualifying offers

[maloney.adam]

15 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

No - it is a bad thing because the Sox consistently waste money on not good players in FA (thinking more of the Eaton type of signings).  In this case - you aren't doing anything to mortgage the future, you are literally buying an expensive lottery ticket asking him to be something close to what he was this past season. If he does that - he is worth $18M no problem.  And I don't doubt Rodon's stuff. 

There are some guys you debate whether they have the chips to be elite - Rodon is elite as long as he can get on that mound.  He is the guy we all thought he could be and showed it.  Now whether he puts in the work etc, I don't know. Only reason you don't spend $18M is if you think his arm will fall off or if you think you can work out a LT deal in future.  Outside of that - spend the $18M and hope it works out and if it doesn't, you move on next year.  They aren't going to find anyone at that price point who can help the rotation more than a healthy Rodon could.  

And I don't think the reason the Sox didn't do it is because they think he is currently hurt - I think he is healthy.  

Why did Rick Hahn say this in the interview with Kap this morning than?

“I’d caution against saying he’s moving on. I’ve already talked with Boras and Rodon. We know we won’t have him back for 1 at 18. It made a little more sense to shoot for a longer deal with him or someone else. His days as a White Sox might not be over. “We saw what he can do when he’s 100% healthy”

They most likely have the medicals on the guy and they have already talked to his agent so I think they actually already know he isn’t 100 percent healthy by just this statement alone. He isn’t worth the $18.4 at that point than. 

Edited November 8, 2021 by maloney.adam

[Harold's Leg Lift]

He said it because he has to say it.

 

 

[Chisoxfn]

4 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

Why did Rick Hahn say this in the interview with Kap this morning than?

“I’d caution against saying he’s moving on. I’ve already talked with Boras and Rodon. We know we won’t have him back for 1 at 18. It made a little more sense to shoot for a longer deal with him or someone else. His days as a White Sox might not be over. “We saw what he can do when he’s 100% healthy”

They most likely have the medicals on the guy and they have already talked to his agent so I think they actually already know he isn’t 100 percent healthy by just this statement alone. He isn’t worth the $18m at that point than. 

I am just stating - I'd spend 1yr 18M. I think the Sox will try and get him for a multi-year deal and more or less maintain contact with Rodon along the way. I wish the best for Carlos and maybe the Sox and Rodon had an agreement -> I'll keep playing but you don't go QO with me.  But that guy showed me everything i needed to know when he came out in the post-season and was throwing straight gas.  The only question to me is whether Rodon would put the work in.

I would use Rodon/Kopech in a staggered situation to balance their workloads and than ocassionally go with a Crochet/ReyLo day for staggered rest and Crochet build up.  Gio/Cease/Lynn as your mainstays + one more.  Now without going after Rodon - I think Sox absolutely need to make a move for a starter.  

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I am just stating - I'd spend 1yr 18M. I think the Sox will try and get him for a multi-year deal and more or less maintain contact with Rodon along the way. I wish the best for Carlos and maybe the Sox and Rodon had an agreement -> I'll keep playing but you don't go QO with me.  But that guy showed me everything i needed to know when he came out in the post-season and was throwing straight gas.  The only question to me is whether Rodon would put the work in.

I would use Rodon/Kopech in a staggered situation to balance their workloads and than ocassionally go with a Crochet/ReyLo day for staggered rest and Crochet build up.  Gio/Cease/Lynn as your mainstays + one more.  Now without going after Rodon - I think Sox absolutely need to make a move for a starter.  

I am still on this bandwagon. I just hate letting this walk for nothing. If Kopech is playing great, you can trade Rodon for other needs. You can also just have him allow a trade - he banked the contract he wanted and I'm sure he'd be open to any place he can start. But to just let him walk is disappointing.

But, it's not that strong of an opinion for me, mainly because of health. What I mentioned above gets complicated if they don't think he can pass a physical. And the sox were not quite on the same page on Rodon at end of the year and it felt like Rodon was just adamant on starting (I wonder if Boras bullied them into it).

Rodon showed us his peak is a great pitcher. And he may never get there again, but for next year, he could. Starting salaries for pitchers basically start at 11 mill and go all the way up to cole at 35 mill. 

It's completely reasonable, but absent context, it is pretty difficult to me to be all-in on what was right here.

[pcq]

16 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

Why did Rick Hahn say this in the interview with Kap this morning than?

“I’d caution against saying he’s moving on. I’ve already talked with Boras and Rodon. We know we won’t have him back for 1 at 18. It made a little more sense to shoot for a longer deal with him or someone else. His days as a White Sox might not be over. “We saw what he can do when he’s 100% healthy”

They most likely have the medicals on the guy and they have already talked to his agent so I think they actually already know he isn’t 100 percent healthy by just this statement alone. He isn’t worth the $18.4 at that point than. 

It is a given that he has health issues, likely chronic. The crap shoot is how many starts can he make.

[Chisoxfn]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

I am still on this bandwagon. I just hate letting this walk for nothing. If Kopech is playing great, you can trade Rodon for other needs. You can also just have him allow a trade - he banked the contract he wanted and I'm sure he'd be open to any place he can start. But to just let him walk is disappointing.

But, it's not that strong of an opinion for me, mainly because of health. What I mentioned above gets complicated if they don't think he can pass a physical. And the sox were not quite on the same page on Rodon at end of the year and it felt like Rodon was just adamant on starting (I wonder if Boras bullied them into it).

Rodon showed us his peak is a great pitcher. And he may never get there again, but for next year, he could. Starting salaries for pitchers basically start at 11 mill and go all the way up to cole at 35 mill. 

It's completely reasonable, but absent context, it is pretty difficult to me to be all-in on what was right here.

I also self admittedly have always been one of Rodon's super fans.  I just love love love his stuff and when it comes to pitching I'm a stuff (above all else guy). Shocking since Maddux, Buehrle, and Pedro are my 3 favorite pitchers in baseball history to watch.  2 of those 3 are not like the other.  

[Chisoxfn]

4 minutes ago, pcq said:

It is a given that he has health issues, likely chronic. The crap shoot is how many starts can he make.

I think this team has all the depth and other guys who need innings / limits (Kopech/Crochet) to where you combine a few of them together and can actually create a pretty good dynamic while creating capacity to handle when someone ends up on DL, etc.  I think you can build a pretty modern front end rotation while using pieces like Rodon to ensure they are at their best for the whole season.  

He should actually be primed to have much better and sustainable arm strength unless he actually suffered a real physical injury (vs. fatigue) during last season.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

24 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

Why did Rick Hahn say this in the interview with Kap this morning than?

“I’d caution against saying he’s moving on. I’ve already talked with Boras and Rodon. We know we won’t have him back for 1 at 18. It made a little more sense to shoot for a longer deal with him or someone else. His days as a White Sox might not be over. “We saw what he can do when he’s 100% healthy”

They most likely have the medicals on the guy and they have already talked to his agent so I think they actually already know he isn’t 100 percent healthy by just this statement alone. He isn’t worth the $18.4 at that point than. 

So he's not 100% healthy, but they would rather bring him back for multiple years than for one year.

Hmmmm, makes a lot of sense!

[maloney.adam]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

So he's not 100% healthy, but they would rather bring him back for multiple years than for one year.

Hmmmm, makes a lot of sense!

They aren’t going to bring him back. They’ve moved on.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

They aren’t going to bring him back. They’ve moved on.

I don't disagree, I just think you give the benefit of the doubt to the Sox far too often.

[ChiSox59]

2 hours ago, Tony said:

So to be clear here...You're either much smarter than the White Sox, or......they have a reason for not extending the qualifying offer and seem perfectly fine being done with Rodon. You believe the Sox are being cheap, and it has nothing to do with their faith in Rodon performing in the future at a level they are comfortable with. 

Do I have that right? 

Balta is always smarter than the white sox.  This is Soxtalk 101. 

[ChiSox59]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

If $18 million is 75% of what this team has to spend then that's the entire issue.

Sure, but we all know they aren't blowing by $200M.  So you can nitpick all you want, but when we have likely an $180M max budget, spending $18.5M on a pitcher that's been above average for 1 2.5 month stint in a 6 year career and has MAJOR injury concerns....maybe....just maybe....is not a wise allocation of resources. 

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

A fundamental question - would you expect anything more than that from a guy recovering from TJS and the 2020 season nuttiness, after they were pushed for a lot of innings in the first half?

I would have rode him hard and put him away wet and let him be someone else's problem in 22.  I've said this numerous times even early in this season.  Feel free to look it up.  They did precisely what I beleived was the best route.  Did I think he'd have the 2.5 months he did?  Nah.  But the dude wasn't useful in the 2nd half and he's not worth the risk of $18.3M.  Had Carlos done something he's really never done...stay healthy....we wouldn't be having this conversation.  But, as always, he didn't...and he cost himself a ton of $.  Just a few short months ago you were clamoring about how he was going to surpass Wheeler's $120M.  

[TaylorStSox]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

I would have rode him hard and put him away wet and let him be someone else's problem in 22.  I've said this numerous times even early in this season.  Feel free to look it up.  They did precisely what I beleived was the best route.  Did I think he'd have the 2.5 months he did?  Nah.  But the dude wasn't useful in the 2nd half and he's not worth the risk of $18.3M.  Had Carlos done something he's really never done...stay healthy....we wouldn't be having this conversation.  But, as always, he didn't...and he cost himself a ton of $.  Just a few short months ago you were clamoring about how he was going to surpass Wheeler's $120M.  

I think this year was about riding him to that limit. As cheap as the Sox are, I don't buy for a second that they would let a healthy Rodon walk on a 1 year deal. I bet his shoulder is toast 

[Thad Bosley]

If the Sox gave Rodon the QO and he accepted it, then went out next year and dominated all season long and put to rest all concerns about his health, he’d hit the open market a year from now and undoubtedly receive a Steve Boras trademark, gargantuan contact, and it wouldn’t come from the White Sox because this owner doesn’t give ace pitchers contracts like that.

What he will do, however, is roll the dice and see to get Rodón to sign a long-term deal this winter, but one with fewer years and at a discounted rate to the previous contract I referenced, due to the health uncertainty at this point in time.  It would be somewhat similar to trying to get a 300 million dollar player to come play for you for 250 million.  

It would be a gamble on both sides, but certainly one with a lot of upside for the Sox.

[Snopek]

59 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

Why did Rick Hahn say this in the interview with Kap this morning than?

“I’d caution against saying he’s moving on. I’ve already talked with Boras and Rodon. We know we won’t have him back for 1 at 18. It made a little more sense to shoot for a longer deal with him or someone else. His days as a White Sox might not be over. “We saw what he can do when he’s 100% healthy”

Against my better judgement, I'm going to hold a magnifying glass up to a Rick Hahn quote: If you knew you he wasn't going to accept the QO, why wouldn't you still offer it so you can get the compensatory pick?

[ChiSox59]

10 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

I think this year was about riding him to that limit. As cheap as the Sox are, I don't buy for a second that they would let a healthy Rodon walk on a 1 year deal. I bet his shoulder is toast 

His inability to work more than 5 innings the 2nd half of the season and multiple trips to IL would seem to agree.  Yet some want to make him one of the highest paid players on the team?  I get it - it was a close call.  But the outrage is silly.  Sox were handcuffed if he accepted. Much like they are with Kimbrel.  

[reiks12]

32 minutes ago, Thad Bosley said:

If the Sox gave Rodon the QO and he accepted it, then went out next year and dominated all season long and put to rest all concerns about his health, he’d hit the open market a year from now and undoubtedly receive a Steve Boras trademark, gargantuan contact, and it wouldn’t come from the White Sox because this owner doesn’t give ace pitchers contracts like that.

What he will do, however, is roll the dice and see to get Rodón to sign a long-term deal this winter, but one with fewer years and at a discounted rate to the previous contract I referenced, due to the health uncertainty at this point in time.  It would be somewhat similar to trying to get a 300 million dollar player to come play for you for 250 million.  

It would be a gamble on both sides, but certainly one with a lot of upside for the Sox.

Thats what I was thinking, something like 3 years with a load of bonuses should he pitch a certain amount of innings and how well.

[GreenSox]

It's the context:  Rodon option declined while Kimbrel was exercised.  Under no objective measure is using $16 million on Kimbrel a wise investment.

2 hours ago, maloney.adam said:

Why did Rick Hahn say this in the interview with Kap this morning than?

“I’d caution against saying he’s moving on. I’ve already talked with Boras and Rodon. We know we won’t have him back for 1 at 18. It made a little more sense to shoot for a longer deal with him or someone else. His days as a White Sox might not be over. “We saw what he can do when he’s 100% healthy”

They most likely have the medicals on the guy and they have already talked to his agent so I think they actually already know he isn’t 100 percent healthy by just this statement alone. He isn’t worth the $18.4 at that point than. 

If there are concerns about his health, then why shoot for a longer deal?

And it's the context: not picking up 18.4 for Rodon, while exercising $16 for Kimbrel.  The 18.4 is dependent on his health; but the $16 is objectively a large overpay in any circumstance.
 

Edited November 8, 2021 by GreenSox

[poppysox]

1 hour ago, Snopek said:

Against my better judgement, I'm going to hold a magnifying glass up to a Rick Hahn quote: If you knew you he wasn't going to accept the QO, why wouldn't you still offer it so you can get the compensatory pick?

Maybe they want to have Rodon test the water and realize an incentive-laced deal is the best he is going to get.  I don't think 18 million is the chump change some here think.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, reiks12 said:

Thats what I was thinking, something like 3 years with a load of bonuses should he pitch a certain amount of innings and how well.

The problem is - that would be a bad deal for Rodon. If it's not 3 years mostly guaranteed, then he doesn't make that much more than he does on a shorter term deal, and on a shorter-term deal he can prove he's healthy, hit a higher innings total, and really cash in next offseason with a true multi-year deal. 

He is better off taking a 1 year, $20 million deal and hitting the FA market again than he is taking a 3 year $30 million deal with a bunch of incentives that could bump it up more. This is also a Boras client we're talking about, and they know that getting back to FA at the time the market is ready for you is how you score the largest deal.

[kleedawg]

4 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

It's the context:  Rodon option declined while Kimbrel was exercised.  Under no objective measure is using $16 million on Kimbrel a wise investment.

If there are concerns about his health, then why shoot for a longer deal?

And it's the context: not picking up 18.4 for Rodon, while exercising $16 for Kimbrel.  The 18.4 is dependent on his health; but the $16 is objectively a large overpay in any circumstance.
And this is the GM who's used 2 first-round-draft choice picks on relief pitchers and traded the young 2B who was the #4 pick in the draft for an aging reliever.
 

Maybe the sox suspect that Rodon would accept the QO. Maybe they think no one will offer as much as 18 mil annually for Rodon. Therefore, they can out bid the highest offer and still get Carlos for less than 18 mil. annually. But just like the rest of us I can only speculate on what the sox know and why they do things.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, kleedawg said:

Maybe the sox suspect that Rodon would accept the QO. Maybe they think no one will offer as much as 18 mil annually for Rodon. Therefore, they can out bid the highest offer and still get Carlos for less than 18 mil. annually. But just like the rest of us I can only speculate on what the sox know and why they do things.

If no one will offer Rodon comparable money to the QO, then that is a pretty strong sign that there's something going to be wrong with his physical. 

[35thstreetswarm]

5 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Maybe they want to have Rodon test the water and realize an incentive-laced deal is the best he is going to get.  I don't think 18 million is the chump change some here think.

I do find it strange that a lot of folks seem not to bat an eye at 18.4 million for Rodon but regard 30 million for Scherzer as laughable.  I mean, reasonably likely that they're all outside the FO's budgetary constraints but it's kind of crazy that Rodon plus Kimbrel = (or >) Scherzer, or Ray, or some other far safer top-of-market target.  

[bmags]

Just now, 35thstreetswarm said:

I do find it strange that a lot of folks seem not to bat an eye at 18.4 million for Rodon but regard 30 million for Scherzer as laughable.  I mean, reasonably likely that they're all outside the FO's budgetary constraints but it's kind of crazy that Rodon plus Kimbrel = (or >) Scherzer, or Ray, or some other far safer top-of-market target.  

Well keep in mind there are two ways people talk about things on this board:

1) What they would do
2) What they think the sox will do

In general, Soxtalk GM thinks sox should manage things with the overall budget in perspective and worry less about individual price tags. Reinsdorf Owner/Hahn GM have shown very little tendency to set tops of the market, so when people talk about something laughable, it's more likely to be coming from that place.