caulfield12 Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 Shohei Ohtani, DH/RHP, Angels No player would instantly draw more attention on the trade market than Ohtani, who is following up his 2021 AL MVP season with another spectacular year. In the past month, Ohtani has four homers, 11 RBIs and an .883 OPS in 21 games – oh, and he’s also gone 4-0 with a 0.34 ERA in four starts. Ohtani won’t be a free agent until the end of 2023, and given the current state of the Angels, this might be the highest Ohtani’s value will ever be. Potential fits: Mets, Padres, Yankees by Mark Feinsand, mlb.com Plus, they already have the “Cuban Ohtani” in Oscar Colas…and they wouldn’t have to absorb the Patrick Corbin deal. Ohtani stands ahead of the pack here in a majority of categories, with time missed & innings per start being his Achilles heel to date. Running this through the algorithm (money/stats/age) spits out a 7 year, $206M contract - for Ohtani the pitcher. #1 AGENT’S TAKE: HE’S A DUAL PLAYER - TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT The simplest starting point is the argument every agent in the world would make: Here’s our player, we expect him to be this forever, pay him accordingly. He’s a $29.5M pitcher, and a $25.2M hitter, and he does both full-time, so that makes him a $54.7M baseball player. He’ll be 29 years old, and thus commands a minimum 8 year contract. 8 years, $437,600,000 ($54.7M AAV) Crazy, right? This would be the largest total value contract in MLB history by more than $11M (Trout, $426.5M), with the highest average salary in MLB history by more than $11M (Scherzer, $43.3M). But let’s think about it this way. Shohei Ohtani projects to strike out 239 batters per 162 games. He also projects to hit 44 home runs and steal 24 bags over those 162 games. How much would a free agent who strikes out 239 batters a year be worth to a contending team, $30M? How much would a 44 HR/24 SB free agent position player be worth to a contending team, $30M? ….. Will teams be tempted to offer Shohei Ohtani an over-market-value smaller contract, especially with a short leash on his ability to pitch full-time, and the heightened risk of injury as he ages? 3 years, $180,000,000 ($60M AAV) (From Above) How much would a free agent who strikes out 239 batters a year be worth to a contending team, $30M? How much would a 44 HR/24 SB free agent position player be worth to a contending team, $30M? What if 3 years won’t cut it for Ohtani (it won’t). Will 5 years at a slightly higher than market value AAV get the job done? 5 years, $285,000,000 ($57M AAV) https://www.spotrac.com/research/mlb/next-contract-series-shohei-ohtani-1532/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 yes white sox should try to get good players. Love the debate that this is bad. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 22, 2022 Author Share Posted July 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, bmags said: yes white sox should try to get good players. Love the debate that this is bad. Solves RF and LHB and LHP issues in one fell swoop. The timeline with 1 1/2 years vs. 2 1/2 for Soto is a bit off…I think you can only make this move you’re willing to shell out something like 3/$150-180 for 2024-26 or some of the suggested 4-5 year deals rather than 7-8 year timelines which don’t fit the window. Then again, that means a lowered cost of acquisition and you also have the Angels potentially salivating about Andrew Vaughn as well due to the Pac-12 roots and maybe Eloy Jimenez plus all the prospect names thrown around in the Soto discussion are the two centerpieces. Of course it also depends if they want to keep Vaughn at LF/RF/DH forever, where his valued is tamped down. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Shohei Ohtani, DH/RHP, Angels No player would instantly draw more attention on the trade market than Ohtani, who is following up his 2021 AL MVP season with another spectacular year. In the past month, Ohtani has four homers, 11 RBIs and an .883 OPS in 21 games – oh, and he’s also gone 4-0 with a 0.34 ERA in four starts. Ohtani won’t be a free agent until the end of 2023, and given the current state of the Angels, this might be the highest Ohtani’s value will ever be. Potential fits: Mets, Padres, Yankees by Mark Feinsand, mlb.com Plus, they already have the “Cuban Ohtani” in Oscar Colas…and they wouldn’t have to absorb the Patrick Corbin deal. Ohtani stands ahead of the pack here in a majority of categories, with time missed & innings per start being his Achilles heel to date. Running this through the algorithm (money/stats/age) spits out a 7 year, $206M contract - for Ohtani the pitcher. #1 AGENT’S TAKE: HE’S A DUAL PLAYER - TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT The simplest starting point is the argument every agent in the world would make: Here’s our player, we expect him to be this forever, pay him accordingly. He’s a $29.5M pitcher, and a $25.2M hitter, and he does both full-time, so that makes him a $54.7M baseball player. He’ll be 29 years old, and thus commands a minimum 8 year contract. 8 years, $437,600,000 ($54.7M AAV) Crazy, right? This would be the largest total value contract in MLB history by more than $11M (Trout, $426.5M), with the highest average salary in MLB history by more than $11M (Scherzer, $43.3M). But let’s think about it this way. Shohei Ohtani projects to strike out 239 batters per 162 games. He also projects to hit 44 home runs and steal 24 bags over those 162 games. How much would a free agent who strikes out 239 batters a year be worth to a contending team, $30M? How much would a 44 HR/24 SB free agent position player be worth to a contending team, $30M? ….. Will teams be tempted to offer Shohei Ohtani an over-market-value smaller contract, especially with a short leash on his ability to pitch full-time, and the heightened risk of injury as he ages? 3 years, $180,000,000 ($60M AAV) (From Above) How much would a free agent who strikes out 239 batters a year be worth to a contending team, $30M? How much would a 44 HR/24 SB free agent position player be worth to a contending team, $30M? What if 3 years won’t cut it for Ohtani (it won’t). Will 5 years at a slightly higher than market value AAV get the job done? 5 years, $285,000,000 ($57M AAV) https://www.spotrac.com/research/mlb/next-contract-series-shohei-ohtani-1532/ Ohtani is a ridiculously good fit and one of those few people who actually would put fannies in the seats. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralChamps21 Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Potential fits: Mets, Padres, Yankees I'm laying 5,000:1 odds that Caulfield doesn't share this article if the Padres weren't mentioned, but in reality, every team is a fit for Ohtani. Everybody can always use more pitching, and if you already have a DH who can't play another position, you'd trade him away to make room for Ohtani. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 The Sox would have nothing else left if the traded for Ohtani. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 22, 2022 Author Share Posted July 22, 2022 Just now, CentralChamps21 said: I'm laying 5,000:1 odds that Caulfield doesn't share this article if the Padres weren't mentioned, but in reality, every team is a fit for Ohtani. Everybody can always use more pitching, and if you already have a DH who can't play another position, you'd trade him away to make room for Ohtani. The Padres are in pretty much every article because 1) Preller is KW Jr. wheeler/dealer reputation-wise and 2) their outfield ship is in danger of sinking. The White Sox, otoh, really need a Rodon replacement to balance out the rotation, for the post season, and LHH RF is what we’ve been talking about going on 2-3 years now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold's Leg Lift Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 19 minutes ago, bmags said: yes white sox should try to get good players. Love the debate that this is bad. There you go again not thinking about Reinsdorf's great great great great grandchildren. How will they ever afford that summer home on Mars if Jerry selfishly throws money around on good baseball players? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 22, 2022 Author Share Posted July 22, 2022 1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said: The Sox would have nothing else left if the traded for Ohtani. Why would Ohtani cost more with slightly lesser contract extension demands and one less year of control than Juan Soto? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 Just now, caulfield12 said: Why would Ohtani cost more with slightly lesser contract extension demands and one less year of control than Juan Soto? Because Anaheim needs pitching and not position players, and they want to be able to compete ASAP. That means Cease/Kopech as headliners. They aren't going to be interested in Vaughn as a headliner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 22, 2022 Author Share Posted July 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said: There you go again not thinking about Reinsdorf's great great great great grandchildren. How will they ever afford that summer home on Mars if Jerry selfishly throws money around on good baseball players? The greatest political parlor trick of the last forty years. How to get the middle and lower middle class to sympathize more with corporations/aka billionaires and job creators than their neighbors. The American Dream is alive and well conceptually, even if only 15-20% are actually experiencing it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralChamps21 Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: The Padres are in pretty much every article because 1) Preller is KW Jr. wheeler/dealer reputation-wise and 2) their outfield ship is in danger of sinking. The White Sox, otoh, really need a Rodon replacement to balance out the rotation, for the post season, and LHH RF is what we’ve been talking about going on 2-3 years now. Amazing that Presser is such a wheeler/dealer and yet the Padres are constantly in desperate need of the biggest names on the trade market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 22, 2022 Author Share Posted July 22, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Because Anaheim needs pitching and not position players, and they want to be able to compete ASAP. That means Cease/Kopech as headliners. They aren't going to be interested in Vaughn as a headliner. Then you take the risk of dealing Kopech…since you are replacing him with a pitcher in Ohtani. Or Vera. Of course, this all depends on your belief in Michael magically rebounding to that 96-100 mph pitcher he was originally billed as early as next May or June. If you think he is that guy, then no trade. They obviously can’t afford to deal Cease, despite the proclivity for 5+ inning outings. Edited July 22, 2022 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 Love that Caulfield threw in "Cuban Ohtani" even though Colas hasn't pitched in ages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 22, 2022 Author Share Posted July 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said: Amazing that Presser is such a wheeler/dealer and yet the Padres are constantly in desperate need of the biggest names on the trade market. They didn’t make a deal for pitching last year and it bit them. Frazier was about as good as Hernandez/Kimbrel, talking about a huge regression. Of course, they have played 3 1/2 months without one of the 5-10 best players when he’s actually in the lineup (see Robert, Luis as well). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 22, 2022 Author Share Posted July 22, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Quin said: Love that Caulfield threw in "Cuban Ohtani" even though Colas hasn't pitched in ages. That’s what he was always billed as. And you can’t put it past the White Sox with the Crochet and Bummer injuries to try something totally zany from the left-hand side as he was clocked at 95 and that was 4-5 years ago in Japan… Edited July 22, 2022 by caulfield12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: They didn’t make a deal for pitching last year and it bit them. Frazier was about as good as Hernandez/Kimbrel, talking about a huge regression. Of course, they have played 3 1/2 months without one of the 5-10 best players when he’s actually in the lineup (see Robert, Luis as well). They didn't do what now? Quote Pittsburgh Pirates Traded RHP Joe Musgrove to San Diego Padres; New York Mets Traded C Endy Rodriguez to Pittsburgh Pirates; San Diego Padres Traded LHP Joey Lucchesi to New York Mets and San Diego Padres Traded RHP David Bednar, CF Hudson Head, RHP Drake Fellows and LHP Omar Cruz to Pittsburgh Pirates. Chicago Cubs traded RHP Yu Darvish, C Victor Caratini and cash to San Diego Padres for RHP Zach Davies, SS Reginald Preciado, SS Yeison Santana, OF Ismael Mena and OF Owen Caissie. San Diego Padres traded C Blake Hunt, RHP Cole Wilcox, C Francisco Mejia and RHP Luis Patino to Tampa Bay Rays for LHP Blake Snell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, Quin said: Love that Caulfield threw in "Cuban Ohtani" even though Colas hasn't pitched in ages. And he's only thrown like 3 innings professionally. He's basically the Cuban Matt Davidson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 1 minute ago, caulfield12 said: That’s what he was always billed as. And you can’t put it past the White Sox with the Crochet and Bummer injuries to try something totally zany from the left-hand side when he was clocked at 95 and that was 4-5 years ago in Japan… The White Sox and Colas have repeatedly stated it's done and in the past, but sure, hang onto it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Then you take the risk of dealing Kopech…since you are replacing him with a pitcher in Ohtani. Or Vera. Of course, this all depends on your belief in Michael magically rebounding to that 96-100 mph pitcher he was originally billed as early as next May or June. If you think he is that guy, then no trade. They obviously can’t afford to deal Cease, despite the proclivity for 5+ inning outings. Headliners, plural. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 22, 2022 Author Share Posted July 22, 2022 Just now, Quin said: They didn't do what now? Last year at the All-Star Break. Most importantly, they couldn’t get Hosmer off the roster and the clubhouse went south due to a roster logjam and too many combustible personalties. Don’t forget Tommy “World’s Best Citizen and Teammate” Pham was on that roster as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 22, 2022 Author Share Posted July 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Quin said: The White Sox and Colas have repeatedly stated it's done and in the past, but sure, hang onto it. Leury is on pace for more appearances than Bummer at this rate… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 1 minute ago, caulfield12 said: Last year at the All-Star Break. Most importantly, they couldn’t get Hosmer off the roster and the clubhouse went south due to a roster logjam and too many combustible personalties. Don’t forget Tommy “World’s Best Citizen and Teammate” Pham was on that roster as well. Just now, caulfield12 said: Leury is on pace for more appearances than Bummer at this rate… 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 22, 2022 Author Share Posted July 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Headliners, plural. Once again, why are we all thinking that Soto won’t require even more headliners, despite his limited baserunning and defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 1 minute ago, caulfield12 said: Once again, why are we all thinking that Soto won’t require even more headliners, despite his limited baserunning and defense. Once again, the Nats and Angels are in different places with different rosters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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