July 25, 20223 yr The next 19 games will probably let us know if this team will make a playoff push. People kept calling the Baltimore series an easy series, but the next 19 are all against teams that are worse than Baltimore (Texas is the best team with a record of 43-51). So make a prediction on how the Sox fare over these 19 games. Feel free to add where you think that puts us in the division on August 15. For reference, this is who the Sox will play: @ Colorado (2) Oakland (3) Kansas City (3) @ Texas (4) @ Kansas City (4) Detroit (3)
July 25, 20223 yr If the Sox are ever going to make a run, the time is now. They're as healthy as they will be all season and the schedule is weak. They could really use a huge run like 14-5 or 15-4, as they haven't had an extended run like that all season. I'll predict 12-7.
July 25, 20223 yr I think anything 11-8 or better keeps you in the hunt. But Sox need to make hay at some point, and no time like the next 19. I hope to see 12-7 or better.
July 25, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, zisk said: anything less than 12-7, realistically ends your season IMO. Nah. Looks at Minnesota and Cleveland's schedule. 12-7 and they're probably 2 GB or less.
July 25, 20223 yr Just now, ChiSox59 said: Nah. Looks at Minnesota and Cleveland's schedule. 12-7 and they're probably 2 GB or less. For reference, the next stretch for Twins: @ Milwaukee (2) @ San Diego (3) vs. Detroit (3) vs. Toronto (4) @. LA Dodgers (2) @ LA Angels (3) For Guardians: @ Boston (4; good time to catch them tho) @ Rays (3) vs. Dbacks (3) vs. Astros (4) @ Tigers (3) @ Blue Jays (3)
July 25, 20223 yr It seems like every time we hit one of these stretches we win just enough games to not fall out, but not enough to catch up. This team is the definition of mediocrity this year. Hopefully the bats are coming to life and we are getting into a good stretch, but man it is hard to have any optimism over the last year. This is a team that has gone 87-84 over its last 171 games since the 2021 all-star break.
July 25, 20223 yr As badly as the Red Sox have been playing, I fully expect Cleveland to sweep. I'll say 10-9. They win every road game and lose every home game.
July 25, 20223 yr The Sox are currently at 500 and this team seems to be magnetically attracted to being 1 under .500 so 9-10 is the obvious answer.
July 25, 20223 yr Anything less than 12-7 is bad. I’ll look at it this way… the Yankees, Astros, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Rays all get 88+ wins. The Twins and Sox stay under 88, so the season series winner makes it, and the other goes home. The Twins win 4 of the final 9 games with the Sox, securing the tie-breaker. That would mean for the Sox to get to 87, and the Twins to only get to 86, the remaining games (not including h-t-h) would have to be: Sox 34-23 and Twins 30-27 So yeah, let’s get some wins in bunches now.
July 25, 20223 yr @ Colorado (2) : 1-1 Oakland (3): 2-1 Kansas City (3): 2-1 @ Texas (4): 2-2 @ Kansas City (4): 3-1 Detroit (3): 2-1 12-7
July 25, 20223 yr 10 minutes ago, chw42 said: @ Colorado (2) : 1-1 Oakland (3): 2-1 Kansas City (3): 2-1 @ Texas (4): 2-2 @ Kansas City (4): 3-1 Detroit (3): 2-1 12-7 This seems about right. I could easily see Twins going 7-10 in their next 17, which would put the Sox and Twins even at the end of this stretch. I don't see the Cleveland matching 12-7 in their next 19 either, as most all of MLB has taken care of the Guardians outside of the Sox. As @Y2Jimmy0 said on twitter over the weekend, they're just a bad matchup for the Sox. Twins: @ Milwaukee (2) 1-1 @ San Diego (3) 1-2 vs. Detroit (3) 2-1 vs. Toronto (4) 2-2 @. LA Dodgers (2) 0-2 @ LA Angels (3) 1-2 Edited July 25, 20223 yr by ChiSox59
July 25, 20223 yr Just now, ChiSox59 said: This seems about right. I could easily see Twins going 7-11 in their next 18, which would put the Sox .5 a game up on them at the end of this stretch. I don't see the Cleveland matching 12-7 in their next 19 either, as most all of MLB has taken care of the Guardians outside of the Sox. As @Y2Jimmy0 said on twitter over the weekend, they're just a bad matchup for the Sox. This team is just hard to predict. You'd think they would play well against all these sub-500 teams, but they've been absolutely ass at home so you can't even put a bunch of stock in them winning home-series against teams like the Tigers and Royals. Sure, they should win those series, but you just never know. The only in-division team that they seem to play well against is Detroit. Even Kansas City gives them trouble. I have way more confidence in them beating teams on the road than I do at home. Which is the exact opposite situation from last season.
July 25, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, chw42 said: This team is just hard to predict. You'd think they would play well against all these sub-500 teams, but they've been absolutely ass at home so you can't even put a bunch of stock in them winning home-series against teams like the Tigers and Royals. Sure, they should win those series, but you just never know. The only in-division team that they seem to play well against is Detroit. Even Kansas City gives them trouble. I have way more confidence in them beating teams on the road than I do at home. Which is the exact opposite situation from last season. Yep. Seems they've been hitting a few more homers lately, which should help at home. But yeah, I wouldn't be shocked to see Sox go anywhere from 9-10 to 13-7 on this stretch.
July 25, 20223 yr 38 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: It seems like every time we hit one of these stretches we win just enough games to not all out, but not enough to catch up. This team is the definition of mediocrity this year. Hopefully the bats are coming to life and we are getting into a good stretch, but man it is hard to have any optimism over the last year. This is a team that has gone 87-84 over its last 171 games since the 2021 all-star break. We haven't really hit one of these stretches this year, though. Sure, we've had a series here and there against mediocre to bad teams (and have underperformed in several of them), but we always turn around and immediately get the Yankees or Dodgers or some such. Our first half schedule was uncommonly tough. This is the first long "break" from good teams we've had. That said, I'm on record as saying this year's Sox have no discernible pattern based on team quality (or if they do, it's that they play *better* against good teams) so I have no idea if this easy stretch will help them. I'm inclined to guess that the combination of injury returns, unmotivated opponents, and positive regression combine to help them though. I'll go 13-6.
July 25, 20223 yr 46 minutes ago, chw42 said: I have way more confidence in them beating teams on the road than I do at home. Which is the exact opposite situation from last season. They were so good at home last season. That is why I thought it was so crucial to keep the foot on the gas and go for the home field advantage last year instead of rest guys for October or whatever they were doing. Every year's team is different and you have to play to their strengths. One year later and they suck at home.
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