January 10, 20233 yr Both the Mets and Twins were willing to guarantee 6 years. Usually with the free agent whales who arent pushing 40, any production the last couple of years is gravy if you have any chance of landing them. So I'm thinking Correa probably looks like he has 3 or 4 more productive years left before the arthritis becomes a problem.
January 10, 20233 yr 4 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said: They did get his prime seasons, however it's unlikely they will get much if any surplus value since it's like 33.3m AAV, so just to break even he would have to average about 5.6m WAR every single year rain or shine just to break even and that assumes arthritis or something else doesn't wipe out any of those seasons. You're counting 1 WAR as about $5 million? I found Fangraphs showing last year that teams paid $8.5 million/WAR on the Free Agent market. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-are-teams-paying-per-war-in-free-agency/ At that level he would have to average 3.92 WAR. I think there's also a very good chance that number will look higher this year thanks to the new CBA, Disney money, and Mr. Cohen, leaving it at <3.9 WAR he needs to average to have this deal "break even" based on what teams are spending.
January 10, 20233 yr 25 minutes ago, pcq said: Lots of excrement in MN over this signing. Not sure if this makes them better or just holding the line. Over-under on Buxton-Correa DL days at 99. Only issue with the Twinks is how they act like they are better than the Sox and usually are. It absolutely makes them better
January 10, 20233 yr 1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said: It's gotta be higher than 21 years. The Giants agreement was 13 years and Mets was 12, right? You'd think by my age I would remember to carry the one. Its 31/865 or 35/935.
January 11, 20233 yr 1 minute ago, fathom said: It absolutely makes them better It makes them better than they were yesterday. Does it make them better than they were last year? This is clearly a treading water move, they literally brought back a guy that they had last year. He might be slightly better or healthier, but not vastly so. Outside of that, as of now they've lost Sanchez, Bundy, and Archer who were at least tolerable contributors. They have brought in Gallo and Vazquez, which probably offsets those losses, but does that make them better? If Gallo turns back into an all star yes, but otherwise that's at best a tiny upgrade. They have brought up a couple of kids, but not a ton of them and not obviously guys who are franchise changing. Their bullpen should be better with a couple kids there, but that doesn't make up the ground against Cleveland. So what are they counting on? They need guys who are there to stay healthier and perform better, including guys like in their starting rotation who have been hurt recently and regularly, and guys like their CF, who has all the talent in the world but keeps only playing half a season. That...sounds pretty familiar.
January 11, 20233 yr By all accounts though, Twins are still going to be very active. They might not be better on paper than last year, but the Sox are way worse.
January 11, 20233 yr 3 minutes ago, fathom said: By all accounts though, Twins are still going to be very active. They might not be better on paper than last year, but the Sox are way worse. If a team hasn't been "Very active" by this point, I'm skeptical at the notion they will be. The FA cupboard is bare, there aren't a lot of teams selling parts, and those that are want great deals to do so. These Twins clearly needed more starting pitching help last year and they scraped the bottom of the barrel rather than trading for any of the A's guys. That is telling us what they were willing to pay.
January 11, 20233 yr 59 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: If a team hasn't been "Very active" by this point, I'm skeptical at the notion they will be. The FA cupboard is bare, there aren't a lot of teams selling parts, and those that are want great deals to do so. These Twins clearly needed more starting pitching help last year and they scraped the bottom of the barrel rather than trading for any of the A's guys. That is telling us what they were willing to pay. True but they’ve been waiting for Correa resolution for weeks now. I still think they trade someone like Larnach and prospects for Lopez.
January 11, 20233 yr Falvey was with the Indians when Bauer was there. Gotta think the Twins are one of the favs to land him.
January 11, 20233 yr 1 minute ago, Harold's Leg Lift said: Falvey was with the Indians when Bauer was there. Gotta think the Twins are one of the favs to land him. They already signed one douchebag to a 6 year deal, might as well sign another.
January 11, 20233 yr SF and NY should be penalized in some way. You can't offer someone you know that has a bum ankle a crazy deal then pull out when the physical shows the obvious. It's bad for baseball. Aside from that... what can the Sox get for Moncada now? Escobar + Mauricio seems fair but most here would probably just take Escobar and the $29m savings in 2024 lol Moncada is a high ceiling gamble for the Mets and worth the gamble for a team looking for a deep playoff run
January 11, 20233 yr Didn't the Mets sell $1M in tickets the day Correa's signing came out? It's the ultimate profit making scheme.
January 11, 20233 yr 9 hours ago, ChiSox59 said: The guaranteed AAV went up $5.33M tho. If Correa is largely healthy for them, this contract is a home run for them. 6 years is the perfect amount of star years for Correa. They just got off the hook for 4 potentially bad years that would hurt their payroll. They weren't going to 10 years/$285M because they expected him to be good for 10 years. They knew the last few years would be a huge gamble for them and likely bad money. Now they don't have to worry.
January 11, 20233 yr 9 hours ago, scotty22hotty said: SF and NY should be penalized in some way. You can't offer someone you know that has a bum ankle a crazy deal then pull out when the physical shows the obvious. It's bad for baseball. Aside from that... what can the Sox get for Moncada now? Escobar + Mauricio seems fair but most here would probably just take Escobar and the $29m savings in 2024 lol Moncada is a high ceiling gamble for the Mets and worth the gamble for a team looking for a deep playoff run I'm guessing it's more complicated than a "bum" ankle.
January 11, 20233 yr 11 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said: 6 years is the perfect amount of star years for Correa. They just got off the hook for 4 potentially bad years that would hurt their payroll. They weren't going to 10 years/$285M because they expected him to be good for 10 years. They knew the last few years would be a huge gamble for them and likely bad money. Now they don't have to worry. I think this deal is a home run for the Twins. But there is plenty here for them to worry about. Two major market teams backed out of deals, one of which being the free spending Mets who have spent without 2nd thought. For Cohen to cut his offer in half after the Giants debacle, there is clearly very bad stuff in the physical. If Correa has a brutal injury in the first half of the deal, this couple be a franchise crippling signing for the Twins. That said, without knowing exactly what the concern is beyond it being related to the 2014 plate surgically installed in his leg, I would be overjoyed if the Sox made this signing. Doesn’t mean there isn’t a good bit of downside risk, and this is coming from someone who has said multiple times I don’t expect Correa to become a pumpkin anytime soon.
January 11, 20233 yr 12 hours ago, Soxfest said: Twins can do 200 mil contract, yet Sox can’t even do a 80 mil one. They can, the issue is they don't have the will to do so thanks to ownership.
January 11, 20233 yr Great deal for the Sox, let him eat up Minnesota's payroll on the injured list and they'll stay mediocre
January 11, 20233 yr 2 hours ago, Goober said: Great deal for the Sox, let him eat up Minnesota's payroll on the injured list and they'll stay mediocre That's, uh, certainly one way to look at it.
February 4, 20233 yr Quote One rival exec predicted no one will ever again get $200M after two failures (one doctor suggested Correa has the worst ankle he’s seen) and called it a “Houdini” job to get that much after a “collapsed market.” But the Twins love him and pay no tax. https://nypost.com/2023/02/02/kodai-senga-had-iffy-physical-before-mets-carlos-correa-saga/ (Heyman).
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