Outside the Box: Trade Cease+ for Daulton Varsho+

[caulfield12]

Lots of rumors the Blue Jays are unhappy with him…and might be available in trade.

He has one more year of control than Cease.

Buying low.   Daulton peaked at 4.8 fWAR just two seasons ago and in the prime of his career.  Everyone in baseball wanted him at that point.  Versatility and athleticism, etc.  Likely less injury risk attached than holding Cease.

 

Now you need to get two players for one to make this really benefit the Sox…and equalize the trade.

 

So my first thought was send over Manoah as well…Bannister will fix him.  High risk, high reward there in buying low twice…with Cease’s value also down.

But it came down to either Orelvis Martinez, Arjun Nimmala, Alan Roden, Addison Barger, Davis Schneider or Brandon Berriera (yet another back end starter projection) as the second piece to make this work from the Getz standpoint.

That leaves Toronto needing more.

A healthy Gregory Santos (this would have to take place mid Spring Training) just might be enough to push it through. Or Kopech. Or both.

 

Toronto gets the best available pitcher on the market with Burnes out and the White Sox can maybe sorta jump start the rebuild by getting a potentially star quality player in Varsho with more control…buying low.

Of course both sides hope for increases in value with Varsho (paid a high price in trade) and White Sox similarly with Cease if they hold onto them.

 

White Sox also won’t or can’t trade Robert until TDL or next offseason.  Having another position player would be the better risk since Cease has had one TJ previously and has pitched a ton since…had that 1.5 mph velo decline, etc.  The durability positive almost makes you think that has to fall apart soon since it’s the White Sox after all.  Everything that can go wrong will go wrong, right?

Shortening the rebuild for current players vs. future prospects is definitely a risk for sure.

 

Toronto really needs to win THIS year, though.  The question is whether they believe Cease and Santos/Kopech would be better than Varsho and shedding a future prospect to get that accomplished.  They also have Ricky Tiedemann to insert into that rotation behind Gausman.

Edited January 27 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Most importantly, can block the Orioles, lol.

Joking, I think.

But can anyone, starting with Getz, trust the White Sox hitting coaches to fix him???

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/examining-blue-jays-of-varshos-early-season-issues-with-high-velocity-pitches/#

 

Edited January 27 by caulfield12

[Tnetennba]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah

::inhale::

hahahahahahqhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[caulfield12]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war?season=2022
 

Can anyone else find a player 27 years or under with a 4.5+ fWAR in EITHER of the last two seasons currently available in trade AND with three or more years of control remaining?

Interestingly, Monoah’s name shows up in this mix here at 4.1.

Adames sort of comes close.

Cal Raleigh unavailable.  He’s 27.

 

 

Edited January 27 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Tnetennba said:

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah

::inhale::

hahahahahahqhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Kenny Williams at least used to be able to find these players.

You never buy a mutual fund or ETF like ARK just because it was #1 for a year, like Benintendi in his own way or Grandal or whomever…but the majority just chase that performance and get killed buying at peak.

 

Tell me which TWO players that Getz is going to get that will be able to put up 4.5 to 5.0 fWAR seasons with absokute certainty that are available?

Tell me which players that Getz added so far are even going to get to a 3.0 fWAR with the White Sox?

 

I will wait for a result that you can never provide.

It’s the exact reason that Elias will not make the trade…because the 6-7 year value their Top 5-6 prospects could provide supercedes two years of Cease that have a lot of risk attached.

All the teams that have recently tried to rush their rebuilds with veterans got burned.

Elias went to Yale, smart guy, he’s going to ride this out with the prospects he already knows and believes in…the rest will be trade material, the Ortizes and Norbys.

[caulfield12]

17 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah

::inhale::

hahahahahahqhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

I’ll give you the entire weekend to make your own trade proposal.

Mine is Cease, Santos (and maybe Kopech) for Daulton Varsho AND any of the 6 prospect names (obviously 1/6, not all 6) I listed OR Alex Manoah.

Prospect coming back would determine if Kopech would be included or held for TDL move based on his first half results.

 

Am forced to take on a high/extreme amount of risk because we don’t have four big trades to make and a series of Top 5 picks, we have just two trades (Cease/Robert, if he stays healthy) and a first rounder that could easily be blown.

Edited January 27 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Lots of rumors the Blue Jays are unhappy with him…and might be available in trade.

He has one more year of control than Cease.

Buying low.   Daulton peaked at 4.8 fWAR just two seasons ago and in the prime of his career.  Everyone in baseball wanted him at that point.  Versatility and athleticism, etc.  Likely less injury risk attached than holding Cease.

 

Now you need to get two players for one to make this really benefit the Sox…and equalize the trade.

 

So my first thought was send over Manoah as well…Bannister will fix him.  High risk, high reward there in buying low twice…with Cease’s value also down.

But it came down to either Orelvis Martinez, Arjun Nimmala, Alan Roden, Addison Barger, Davis Schneider or Brandon Berriera (yet another back end starter projection) as the second piece to make this work from the Getz standpoint.

That leaves Toronto needing more.

A healthy Gregory Santos (this would have to take place mid Spring Training) just might be enough to push it through. Or Kopech. Or both.

 

Toronto gets the best available pitcher on the market with Burnes out and the White Sox can maybe sorta jump start the rebuild by getting a potentially star quality player in Varsho with more control…buying low.

Of course both sides hope for increases in value with Varsho (paid a high price in trade) and White Sox similarly with Cease if they hold onto them.

 

White Sox also won’t or can’t trade Robert until TDL or next offseason.  Having another position player would be the better risk since Cease has had one TJ previously and has pitched a ton since…had that 1.5 mph velo decline, etc.  The durability positive almost makes you think that has to fall apart soon since it’s the White Sox after all.  Everything that can go wrong will go wrong, right?

Shortening the rebuild for current players vs. future prospects is definitely a risk for sure.

 

Toronto really needs to win THIS year, though.  The question is whether they believe Cease and Santos/Kopech would be better than Varsho and shedding a future prospect to get that accomplished.  They also have Ricky Tiedemann to insert into that rotation behind Gausman.

17.

[Tnetennba]

Something tells me you’re not overly familiar with Dalton Varsho. Likable player, but he didn’t exactly move the needle for a playoff team last year. He’s hardly the difference maker you need in return for Cease, on top of being a poor fit for where this team is. And dont even get me started on Manoah’s issues.
 
 

[caulfield12]

30 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Something tells me you’re not overly familiar with Dalton Varsho. Likable player, but he didn’t exactly move the needle for a playoff team last year. He’s hardly the difference maker you need in return for Cease, on top of being a poor fit for where this team is. And dont even get me started on Manoah’s issues.
 
 

Still not proposing your own trade.

You’re doing another Hahn.  Merely looking at Benintendi’s 2022 or Pollock’s last year in LA and not the full context of the overall decline in numbers over a 3-4 year period.

The same thing as acquiring the two hottest prospects in Moncada and Kopech…but missing on Devers, who has his own set of limitations but can at the very least hit consistently enough to be rewarded with a massive contract extension.  

(Of course the really smart GM/ownership group rewards the much more valuable player in Betts instead of cutting costs.)

If the White Sox can’t consistently develop prospects…then at least they are far better off trying to “fix” players with proven talent at the big league level, but they have hardly proved capable of doing that, either.

 

It’s almost impossible to find players with three or more years of control with a minimum 4.5-4.8 fWAR or above peak because those players are ordinarily never made available.

Maybe Varsho fails to exceed a 3.0 a fWAR for the remainder of his career (another Moncada bust), but we have two of our top executives now in Barfield and his assistant who are paid to know the answer.

Just like we have half the Royals’ front office and coaching staff but not the individual responsible from poaching Ragans from the Rangers for Chapman…a #30 pick in the first round who throws as hard or harder than Cease Kopech Santos.  

 

 

“Ragans has posted an underwhelming 5.32 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 51:30 K:BB in 64.1 career major-league innings after undergoing two Tommy John surgeries. has posted an underwhelming 5.32 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 51:30 K:BB in 64.1 career major-league innings after undergoing two Tommy John surgeries.”

 

“Multiple quality pitches, and one very solid out pitch plus limiting hard contact/barrels is a very good recipe for success. The only thing I am worried about at this point is his elbow. It has blown out twice before, and he is sustaining way higher velocities deep into games. He topped out at 98.7 mph on Tuesday and was sitting 94 to 98 the whole way. That is a tick down from the previous start, and I would like to see him not max out all the time. When he popped the 101 against the A’s visions of Jacob deGrom flashed in my head. 

Given the eye test and underlying stats, it is hard to see how Cole Ragans is not at least a number two starter if he can maintain the velocity and stuff he has shown so far as a Royal. Injury and regression are, unfortunately, constants in the pitching world from year to year however. Either way, the fact that the Royals identified him, traded for him, improved him, and unleashed him on their foes is a really good sign that the pitching development team is more competent than we have seen in quite some time. Now if they can just find a couple more starters like this maybe next year could avoid being a disaster again.”

https://www.royalsreview.com/2023/8/31/23852872/cole-ragans-has-the-stuff

https://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article278117072.html

 

The problem is the scout and GM who targeted him are still with the Royals…and our scouting tree has withered on the vine until just this offseason.  And we still don’t cover the Pacific Rim well enough…some SoxTalk posters know more about it from actually watching games than Haber’s CPU and algorithms could analyze and assess correctly.

You have to consistently find bargains and buy low on players who could potentially be stars.  That’s how they succeeded in the 2000s, it simply wasn’t sustainable long-term.

 

Edited January 27 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

17.

Let’s hear your non Orioles trade and we can all pick that apart as well.

Don’t just list the Yankees prospects everyone is currently focused upon.

[Bob Sacamano]

This would be a terrible deal

[Sox72]

What the f*** 

[Quin]

Caulfield, I appreciate the thinking outside the box, this ain't it.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

This would be a terrible deal

Varsho had a higher fWAR than Cease when Cease finished 2nd for the Cy Young.

Three years of control.

A top Blue Jays prospect for Santos OR Kopech, who couldn’t be more totally irrelevant to the future of the White Sox.

 

Every judgment you’re making is 100% based on 2022.

 

Now you understand why Orioles’ fans won’t ever pay 2022 prices for 2024 Cease.  For the exact same reason everyone can argue that Varsho is his 2023 version for the rest of his career, or O’s fans that Cease will never return to previous form or ever 100% recover his fastball from 2020-2022 and out it back in his too bag.

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, Quin said:

Caulfield, I appreciate the thinking outside the box, this ain't it.

Let me ask you this.  After Cease and Robert on the active roster, which three players have the most value as of today, based on their current/existing contracts?

Other than maybe Santos and maybe Kopech based on their 2024 first halves, it’s almost impossible to come up with anyone.

I guess Nicky Lopez…based on his floor due to defense.  Someone else might squint and say Vaughn, but that’s a bit of a stretch, too.  Or even Colas, to other organizations who have watched in disbelief how the White Sox have mishandled him from afar, cratering his value completely.

[hi8is]

You should write a book.

[Kyyle23]

[Middle Buffalo]

8 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

17.

Does 17 refer to the number of paragraphs in a typical Caulfield post?

[Bob Sacamano]

Terrible use of dealing Cease. So bad that I think you only posted it to get replies.

[Bob Sacamano]

1 hour ago, Middle Buffalo said:

Does 17 refer to the number of paragraphs in a typical Caulfield post?

I believe it is name drops.

Edited January 27 by Bob Sacamano

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

We know you’re not going to provide a trade of your own…apparently everyone prefers a 4-5 year rebuild.

I assume you’ve looked at who is receiving at-bats in the 2024 projected Fangraphs outfield.

 

2023

Luis Robert 5.0

2nd place 1.4 fWAR

2022 

Dalton Varsho 4.8

Jose Abreu 3.8

 

2021

Anderson 4.6

Moncada 4.0

Varsho 2.3 in 95 games    would be roughly 3.5-4.0 extrapolated out for a full season

 

2020 Abreu 2.8  (would have to be projected)

Anderson 2.4  (would have to be projected due to Covid season)

2019

Moncada 5.5

Anderson 4.5

 

Lots of 4.8 fWAR and above seasons in there…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 27 by caulfield12

[Bob Sacamano]

8 hours ago, Tnetennba said:

Something tells me you’re not overly familiar with Dalton Varsho. Likable player, but he didn’t exactly move the needle for a playoff team last year. He’s hardly the difference maker you need in return for Cease, on top of being a poor fit for where this team is. And dont even get me started on Manoah’s issues.
 
 

He has more value playing CF. The Jays fucked up by bringing back KK instead of a bat first corner OF type bat.

Edited January 27 by Bob Sacamano

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

He has more value playing CF. The Jays fucked up by bringing back KK instead of a bat first corner OF type bat.

That’s yet another argument…he will eventually have to replace Luis Robert in CF.

PLUS Orelvis Martinez or Nimmala as the second part of trade.

 

Rk	Name	Age	Highest Level	Position	ETA	FV
1	Ricky Tiedemann	21.3	AAA	SP	2024	55
2	Orelvis Martinez	22.1	AAA	3B	2024	50
3	Arjun Nimmala	17.8	R	3B	2028	45+
4	Addison Barger	24.1	AAA	3B	2024	45
5	Leo Jimenez	22.6	AAA	SS	2024	45
6	T.J. Brock	24.3	AA	SIRP	2025	45
7	Adam Macko	23.0	A+	MIRP	2024	45
8	Yosver Zulueta	25.9	AAA	SIRP	2024	45
9	Josh Kasevich	22.9	A+	3B	2027	45
10	Brandon Barriera	19.8	A	SP	2027	45

Edited January 27 by caulfield12

[Tnetennba]

1 minute ago, Bob Sacamano said:

He has more value playing CF. The Jays fucked up by bringing back KK instead of a bat first corner OF type bat.

That's the only real value he brought to the table, which would be completely wasted here. The Jays needed more LH balance in the lineup, but Varsho basically flopped. KK is the better CF obviously but neither of them helped the team's offensive issues.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That’s yet another argument…he will eventually have to replace Luis Robert in CF.

PLUS Orelvis Martinez or Nimmala as the second part of trade.

 

Rk	Name	Age	Highest Level	Position	ETA	FV
1	Ricky Tiedemann	21.3	AAA	SP	2024	55
2	Orelvis Martinez	22.1	AAA	3B	2024	50
3	Arjun Nimmala	17.8	R	3B	2028	45+
4	Addison Barger	24.1	AAA	3B	2024	45
5	Leo Jimenez	22.6	AAA	SS	2024	45
6	T.J. Brock	24.3	AA	SIRP	2025	45
7	Adam Macko	23.0	A+	MIRP	2024	45
8	Yosver Zulueta	25.9	AAA	SIRP	2024	45
9	Josh Kasevich	22.9	A+	3B	2027	45
10	Brandon Barriera	19.8	A	SP	2027	45

Replace Robert? Robert has more control lol And if you’re making this deal for a guy with 3 years of control to improve your team over that time, you’re not trading Robert.

Edited January 27 by Bob Sacamano