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White Sox, Nats, Rockies already at 0.2%-0.0% playoff odds


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4 minutes ago, Green Line said:

Who care.  These numbers are made up

Not made up:

"To generate the playoff odds, we take the current standings, the remaining schedule, and each team's projected performance. We use those inputs to simulate the remaining season 20,000 times. We aggregate these outcomes to find the probability of winning the division or a Wild Card spot, along with winning the World Series and various playoff rounds. If a team has a 90% chance to make the playoffs it means that 18,000 out of the 20,000 simulated seasons end with the team making the playoffs."

MLB Playoff Odds | FanGraphs Baseball

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26 minutes ago, KipWellsFan said:

Not made up:

"To generate the playoff odds, we take the current standings, the remaining schedule, and each team's projected performance. We use those inputs to simulate the remaining season 20,000 times. We aggregate these outcomes to find the probability of winning the division or a Wild Card spot, along with winning the World Series and various playoff rounds. If a team has a 90% chance to make the playoffs it means that 18,000 out of the 20,000 simulated seasons end with the team making the playoffs."

MLB Playoff Odds | FanGraphs Baseball

They say if the concept of infinity exists then eventually apes will type out Macbeth. I'd assume eventually the White Sox would also win a playoff series.

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1 hour ago, Green Line said:

Exaggerated.  Theyre always wrong.

But they pretty accurately capture a given moment in time based on up to date results and their proprietary assessment of body of work/rigid statistical analysis...but not necessarily what will happen in the future.

A bit like in-game win loss probabilities displayed on the screen.

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Those three teams (from thread title)...along with the A's (1.1%), are the ONLY ones with less than 10% odds of making the playoffs as of current moment.

 

Marlins 11.1%

Angels 14.6%

Royals 14.4%

 

1-5 Astros still are predicted for first place in the AL West, for example.

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