His defense appears to be absolutely stellar, among the very best for an outfielder. 

So, what does he have to hit to make him a truly valuable RF for the Sox next year and solve that hole in RF that the Sox seem to have had forever. 

I just looked it up and the average OPS in the AL is .707. So I think if he could have an OPS of .700 for the season next year, with his defense in RF, I would think that the Sox management and fans would have to be very happy to have him there. 

I know he is quite a distance from that right now, but in 2023, in OPS in 93 at bats was .791. So I think .700 is very possible, (but I would agree probably unlikely).

What do you think?

If we set our sights THAT low, we're never going to get out of the basement.

Because Fletcher's defensive metrics might not hold up like they have in 2024 over a more expanded sample size.

Then you're basically screwed if it proves to be unsustainable.

At best, you're talking something like a 1.5-2 fWARish player...but much more likely a fourth or fifth outfielder on a decent team.

Corner outfield spots are power positions, unless he can hit 25-30 home runs and drive in 90-100 runs he can't be the everyday right fielder. Maybe after Robert is traded he can move to center.  

1 minute ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Corner outfield spots are power positions, unless he can hit 25-30 home runs and drive in 90-100 runs he can't be the everyday right fielder. Maybe after Robert is traded he can move to center.  

Then the obvious question becomes whether he can come close to sustaining his defensive metrics in CF.

For example, because of his arm strength/outfield assists in 2016, Adam Eaton put up a huge fWAR, but he was nothing special in CF.

 

His bat plays more in CF, but likely his defense is only so special on a corner.  So they're still left with a conundrum.

I think he's a good 4th outfielder 

I'm going to submit that a guy with a 15 DRS in 225 innings in RF will NOT scale up to a 75 DRS if he plays 1125 innings in RF, when no player in baseball has a DRS more than 20 this year.

OPS  .760.

2 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Corner outfield spots are power positions, unless he can hit 25-30 home runs and drive in 90-100 runs he can't be the everyday right fielder. Maybe after Robert is traded he can move to center.  

Agreed.  Ideally he can play CF and replace Robert when he is traded.  No thanks on this little weak guy playing RF.

Edited September 9, 20241 yr by WhiteSox2023

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I'm going to submit that a guy with a 15 DRS in 225 innings in RF will NOT scale up to a 75 DRS if he plays 1125 innings in RF, when no player in baseball has a DRS more than 20 this year.

You don't think he's going to have the single greatest defensive season of all time?*

*Since we could measure DRS

Could he be the next Rowand?

2 hours ago, greg775 said:

Could he be the next Rowand?

No.  Rowand hit 24 and 27 homers in two separate seasons.  Fletcher would need Jose Canseco’s secret serum injections to sniff Rowand’s power numbers.

7 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Corner outfield spots are power positions, unless he can hit 25-30 home runs and drive in 90-100 runs he can't be the everyday right fielder. Maybe after Robert is traded he can move to center.  

Those are my thoughts also.  
Maybe they decide to keep Robert, they can then move him to RF, prolong his career by cutting down on all the running in CF.

 

Edited September 9, 20241 yr by The Mighty Mite

8 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Corner outfield spots are power positions, unless he can hit 25-30 home runs and drive in 90-100 runs he can't be the everyday right fielder. Maybe after Robert is traded he can move to center.  

I think the hope is he becomes what Adam eaton was for is, which was plenty good without that type of power. 

3 hours ago, The Mighty Mite said:

Those are my thoughts also.  
Maybe they decide to keep Robert, they can then move him to RF, prolong his career by cutting down on all the running in CF.

 

Then you really wipe out Robert's surplus value when he's 100% and playing GG caliber defense in CF.

That corner version of Robert is just a fairly decent player with 2023 numbers...maybe a 2.5-3 fWAR but far from a star.

His contract would be fair then...relatively....but hardly a bargain or value.

 

Not to mention at least half or more of his injuries have happened on the base paths.

Edited September 9, 20241 yr by caulfield12

His glove alone should keep him on the team. He can come off the bench for defense and also spot start

If Money Ball taught me anything clinging to any past assumptions will cause you to miss out on opportunities and you'll never be the innovation leader. 

But he'll never be a good choice as an everyday corner outfielder. 

Next year?  .600 maybe .650.  I mean who is he going to have to beat out?  Oh right the Golden Boy Gavin.

I'm guessing anyone with a pulse and who is healthy*enough* will be a front runner at each position. 

I'm less concerned about what position the power comes from than just getting some power on the team.  If Fletcher can play a great RF and have a decent bat with less power, I'll take it.  Provided, that is, the Sox find power to help fill the lineup.

I think the comparisons to Eaton are valid...hopefully the first version of Eaton.  

3 hours ago, Lyle Moooton said:

I think the hope is he becomes what Adam eaton was for is, which was plenty good without that type of power. 

I don’t think Fletcher could even sniff 14 home runs in a full season like Eaton.  He looks that weak.

Edited September 9, 20241 yr by WhiteSox2023

An OPS+ of about 100. Just be league average offensively

I’ve been really disappointed with his bat.   i follow college baseball and i was impressed what he did at Arkansas, he just hasn’t done it for the Sox.   i personally think he takes WAY too many pitches.   Also, he’s always behind in the count.

11 hours ago, Texsox said:

If Money Ball taught me anything clinging to any past assumptions will cause you to miss out on opportunities and you'll never be the innovation leader. 

But he'll never be a good choice as an everyday corner outfielder. 

Yeah my initial excitement subsided when I saw his offensive stats are not good this season in almost 200 at bats. .215ish, one homer, 14 ribbies. It's amazing how few players the Sox have that would generate any happiness to a fan. Mabe Benintendi can teach him how to elevate. Benitendi hit a few homers this season after what, one or so the year before?

Edited September 9, 20241 yr by greg775

He isn't even a fourth outfielder IMO because a fourth outfielder should be average or better in center field, and he's atrocious out there. I've never seen a center fielder drop as many balls as he has in a season.