caulfield12 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 (edited) MN Twins would prefer to offer a package headlined for Cease headlined by a young starter like Zebby Matthews or Simeon Woods Richardson that would also include Trevor Larnach and Willi Castro. Christian Vazquez seems to be off the table with the recent Elias Diaz signing. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/dylan-cease-discusses-trade-rumors.html Edited February 2 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, PaleAleSox said: Signing him to a six year deal would be so stupid. Yep, or even a 3 year high AAV with opt-outs doesn’t make sense given the ramifications. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) So you've got the Cubs Blue Jays Tigers Astros all theoretically in on Bregman...probably enough to get a deal done with early opt outs for places like Toronto or Chicago conditioned upon retaining key free agents. Maybe the Red Sox still involved as well...but they would have to move Bregman to second unless they were to move Devers to DH/1B instead. Edited February 3 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Flaherty to Tigers. Really seems Cubs might get Bregman, which shocks me. Also might get old friend Cease finally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 17 minutes ago, fathom said: Flaherty to Tigers. Really seems Cubs might get Bregman, which shocks me. Also might get old friend Cease finally. If they get Cease, then there really was no point in the Boyd signing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, fathom said: Flaherty to Tigers. Really seems Cubs might get Bregman, which shocks me. Also might get old friend Cease finally. Isn't Shaw going to play there? Funny they have already gone through what...Morel Candelario Paredes Bote. Why not Arenado?...oh the infamous Lou Brock Broglio trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) 1 hour ago, fathom said: Flaherty to Tigers. Really seems Cubs might get Bregman, which shocks me. Also might get old friend Cease finally. 2/$35 million... Tigers up to $135 million but they and the Twins ($140+ million) still in the 16-19 range for MLB...slightly below average. Edited February 3 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) "Reds (now Dodgers, 41st overall, CBR-A): This pick was already moved, as Cincinnati traded its selection along with outfield prospect Mike Sirota to Los Angeles in exchange for Gavin Lux." Seems like Cincy got fleeced big-time... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/what-other-competitive-balance-round-draft-picks-could-be-traded-this-winter.html Edited February 3 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/2/2025 at 12:46 AM, TaylorStSox said: The Cease trade looks bad now, but it's still way too early to give up on Thorpe and Zavala. Yeah, Thorpe maxes out at 92, but his MiLB stats are undeniable and his change up is legitimately one of the best individual pitches you'll ever see. If he can stay healthy, his floor is a number 4 innings eater that will flash brilliance. Zavala is 20 years old and has a beautiful, effortless swing and plus, plus plate discipline. Both of them have a legitimate shot at being contributors on good teams. Zavala isn't the type of high ceiling no floor prospect we've featured over the last 20 years. He's a very high floor, disciplined hitter with exceptional fundamentals. Give it a little time and try to have some faith. What's the worst that can happen? Zavala hits below .200 again because his beautiful, effortless swing ends up just being just being hype from one trainer on Twitter? There's no such thing as a "no floor" prospect. Thorpe loses anything coming back from injury and gets shelled. Iriarte becomes Kopech 2.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) 6 hours ago, Quin said: Zavala hits below .200 again because his beautiful, effortless swing ends up just being just being hype from one trainer on Twitter? There's no such thing as a "no floor" prospect. Thorpe loses anything coming back from injury and gets shelled. Iriarte becomes Kopech 2.0 Minus the hype of being the best RH prep pitching prospect in the game... Edited February 3 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, Quin said: Zavala hits below .200 again because his beautiful, effortless swing ends up just being just being hype from one trainer on Twitter? There's no such thing as a "no floor" prospect. Thorpe loses anything coming back from injury and gets shelled. Iriarte becomes Kopech 2.0 I mean all three guys have some pretty important red flags and none of them are THAT highly ranked. Worst case isn't even the only case that ends up bad for the Sox. -There is a very realistic chance Zavala never makes the majors. He had major struggles in his stops at A+. His K rates and contact rates are scary. -Iriarte has never shown he can consistently be a guy who gets under a walk every other inning, and that is with MUCH higher chase rates seen in the minors. It's not hard to see him generating a lot of walks, followed by a lot of hard contact by guys zone hitting for when they get 3-1 and know a fastball is coming so he doesn't give up yet another walk. -Even if Thorpe has a ridiculous MLB change up, he still has to get to the counts to throw it. His margin for error is going to be much less than guys who have three major league pitches, instead of one. Everything depends on his change being perfect, so MLB hitters can't sit on something else other then his change. His control with his other pitchers also has to be picture perfect, because if it isn't he is getting pounded with the rest of his stuff. All three guys need to take pretty major steps to fix some pretty sizable flaws in their games. Sure they have ceiling with some major plus tools, but they don't get to use those tools if they can't fix their flaws. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaylorStSox Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said: I mean all three guys have some pretty important red flags and none of them are THAT highly ranked. Worst case isn't even the only case that ends up bad for the Sox. -There is a very realistic chance Zavala never makes the majors. He had major struggles in his stops at A+. His K rates and contact rates are scary. -Iriarte has never shown he can consistently be a guy who gets under a walk every other inning, and that is with MUCH higher chase rates seen in the minors. It's not hard to see him generating a lot of walks, followed by a lot of hard contact by guys zone hitting for when they get 3-1 and know a fastball is coming so he doesn't give up yet another walk. -Even if Thorpe has a ridiculous MLB change up, he still has to get to the counts to throw it. His margin for error is going to be much less than guys who have three major league pitches, instead of one. Everything depends on his change being perfect, so MLB hitters can't sit on something else other then his change. His control with his other pitchers also has to be picture perfect, because if it isn't he is getting pounded with the rest of his stuff. All three guys need to take pretty major steps to fix some pretty sizable flaws in their games. Sure they have ceiling with some major plus tools, but they don't get to use those tools if they can't fix their flaws. Pretty much exactly what I said about Thorpe - fantastic change but has little margin for error without a 3rd pitch. How much are the Sox paying you to hype up prospects on a message board read by 50 people a week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 9 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said: Pretty much exactly what I said about Thorpe - fantastic change but has little margin for error without a 3rd pitch. How much are the Sox paying you to hype up prospects on a message board read by 50 people a week? Hopefully the same as what you are getting paid, because I never called it "legitimately one of the best individual pitches you'll ever see". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 hours ago, TaylorStSox said: Pretty much exactly what I said about Thorpe - fantastic change but has little margin for error without a 3rd pitch. How much are the Sox paying you to hype up prospects on a message board read by 50 people a week? He literally said "If Thorpe has a ridiculous changeup". You said "Thorpe has one of the best pitches ever". The term "if" is a conjunction meaning 'in the event that' or 'on condition that.' 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 (edited) On 2/1/2025 at 3:49 PM, Balta1701 said: I said it above, but to make this clear - if the market is weak at the time, if the #2 pitcher on the market can't get the type of deal he's looking for and has to take a 1 year deal, that's a bad market for starting pitching. A normal market is better than that. This year, all of the top 5 pitchers have their deals, and several teams have done trades for pitching. This is a normal market, maybe even a good market, for starting pitching. Literally everything last year said that it was a bad market. You had one guy who got a good deal quickly, Nola, and that was because the Phillies said they were keeping him. Everything else was teams looking for value. I'm still ok with what he got for Cease as were many others. The fans expectations were out of whack with what he was worth. The problems was his 1st decent year was 2021 3 bWar, then 2nd in Cy Young 6.4 bWar , followed by 2023s 2.4 Unfortunately he had his worst season in 3 years on the worst team he had pitched for. Also unfortunately the trade keeps looking worse when prospects get hurt or regress and your MLB pitcher rebounds to about middle ground between his 2022 and 2023. So it looks worse.Guys with better track records get more and selling high gets more. Sox were selling low despite peripherals and the market reflected that. And I think there was some loss of velocity also. And I do not blindly stick up for Getz. I think he was in a terrible position, just as the fans are in a terrible position. I can blame the puppet master a lot more than I can blame the puppets. Again unfortunately JR gets to hide while Getz is at the forefront of every move that is made making him the biggest puppet target even though his decisions are always based on the guidelines set by the JR Hated the Fedde trade .You could say Fedde had a better year than Cease bWar 5.6 to Cease 4.2 , little bit better ERA. But probably not many people would say Fedde is more valuable , but he had more value than Getz got for him. Do you want to know the biggest mistake Getz made so far ? The move he didn't make. He should've made trading Robert his top priority before he traded Cease. But once again after that 5 WAR season fans thought he had finally arrived.No way the Sox could get equal value for him. I'd like to see that thread again. But if he had got traded most probably would've thought he didn't get enough. People here referred to him as a superstar. I think I spoke up once and said he wasn't a superstar.Superstars have track records of above average play multiple years in a row. You cannot get greedy and ignore that he was consistently injured up until that year. Trading Robert could've been the best opportunity to get the position prospects the Sox desperately needed. It also might've created a little momentum towards trading Cease. I'll critique myself the same way I critique others. I don't know what kind of offers the Sox got for Robert that off season. But I did know that holding onto Robert was a way bigger risk than holding onto Cease . It sucks when you have to trade a guy at peak value for fans but it sucks worse now that they have to hope that a guy like him doesn't end up the same as Moncada. He'll never get anywhere near that value he had after 2023. He'll need a Crochetian type miracle and some major OF injuries among contenders to recover value. Edited February 4 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 (edited) 27 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: I'm still ok with what he got for Cease as were many others. The fans expectations were out of whack with what he was worth. The problems was his 1st decent year was 2021 3 bWar, then 2nd in Cy Young 6.4 bWar , followed by 2023s 2.4 Unfortunately he had his worst season in 3 years on the worst team he had pitched for. Also unfortunately the trade keeps looking worse when prospects get hurt or regress and your MLB pitcher rebounds to about middle ground between his 2022 and 2023. So it looks worse.Guys with better track records get more and selling high gets more. Sox were selling low despite peripherals and the market reflected that. And I think there was some loss of velocity also. And I do not blindly stick up for Getz. I think he was in a terrible position, just as the fans are in a terrible position. I can blame the puppet master a lot more than I can blame the puppets. Again unfortunately JR gets to hide while Getz is at the forefront of every move that is made making him the biggest puppet target even though his decisions are always based on the guidelines set by the JR Hated the Fedde trade .You could say Fedde had a better year than Cease bWar 5.6 to Cease 4.2 , little bit better ERA. But probably not many people would say Fedde is more valuable , but he had more value than Getz got for him. Do you want to know the biggest mistake Getz made so far ? The move he didn't make. He should've made trading Robert his top priority before he traded Cease. But once again after that 5 WAR season fans thought he had finally arrived.No way the Sox could get equal value for him. I'd like to see that thread again. But if he had got traded most probably would've thought he didn't get enough. People here referred to him as a superstar. I think I spoke up once and said he wasn't a superstar.Superstars have track records of above average play multiple years in a row. You cannot get greedy and ignore that he was consistently injured up until that year. Trading Robert could've been the best opportunity to get the position prospects the Sox desperately needed. It also might've created a little momentum towards trading Cease. I'll critique myself the same way I critique others. I don't know what kind of offers the Sox got for Robert that off season. But I did know that holding onto Robert was a way bigger risk than holding onto Cease . It sucks when you have to trade a guy at peak value for fans but it sucks worse now that they have to hope that a guy like him doesn't end up the same as Moncada. He'll never get anywhere near that value he had after 2023. He'll need a Crochetian type miracle and some major OF injuries among contenders to recover value. Remember...Getz was going to turn things around immediately, no time could be wasted. Trading Robert and not being able to sell the fanbase the illusion oin instant competitiveness with a new manager coming in would have made JR look like a con man. And then his value would have still taken a hit...we're not the Rays. We don't sell high and get the timing right traditionally. Everyone would have assumed there was some issue with Robert to suddenly want to trade him after a year like that. Not to mention Getz couldn't have KNOWN Crochet would have that type of season and relieve some of the pressure on stocking the farm without a #1-2-3 pick in 2025 as well. Cease is a Top 5-10 pitcher in baseball by fWAR. Huge discrepancy in valuations between the two systems. In fact, Cease is number 5 there and only trails the likes of Sale Skubal Wheeler Ragans. Fedde is #17. Still ToR numbers but not accorded that respect or value in just 3-4 months back in the big leagues. Edited February 4 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 30 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Remember...Getz was going to turn things around immediately, no time could be wasted. Trading Robert and not being able to sell the fanbase the illusion oin instant competitiveness with a new manager coming in would have made JR look like a con man. And then his value would have still taken a hit...we're not the Rays. We don't sell high and get the timing right traditionally. Everyone would have assumed there was some issue with Robert to suddenly want to trade him after a year like that. Not to mention Getz couldn't have KNOWN Crochet would have that type of season and relieve some of the pressure on stocking the farm without a #1-2-3 pick in 2025 as well. Cease is a Top 5-10 pitcher in baseball by fWAR. Huge discrepancy in valuations between the two systems. In fact, Cease is number 5 there and only trails the likes of Sale Skubal Wheeler Ragans. Fedde is #17. Still ToR numbers but not accorded that respect or value in just 3-4 months back in the big leagues. Ok let's not be delusional .The Sox just got done losing 101 games. Cease and Robert were in the market at the same time.No one was thinking there was anything wrong about the Sox trading Robert. If you want to hang onto that turn things around quickly BS then you haven't been paying attention to Reinsdorf very long. It obviously was a rebuild. If you were trading Cease you had to trade Robert 1st. Big year ,biggest, most valuable trade piece. And yes Getz couldn't have known about Crochet's huge year so it made it even more imperative to trade Robert.He was at that point in time your best trade piece. The Sox would've done a whole lot better than they're going to get for him in the future barring everything possible going right to reclaim some of his value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: Ok let's not be delusional .The Sox just got done losing 101 games. Cease and Robert were in the market at the same time.No one was thinking there was anything wrong about the Sox trading Robert. If you want to hang onto that turn things around quickly BS then you haven't been paying attention to Reinsdorf very long. It obviously was a rebuild. If you were trading Cease you had to trade Robert 1st. Big year ,biggest, most valuable trade piece. And yes Getz couldn't have known about Crochet's huge year so it made it even more imperative to trade Robert.He was at that point in time your best trade piece. The Sox would've done a whole lot better than they're going to get for him in the future barring everything possible going right to reclaim some of his value. The argument last year is that nobody was giving out the type of Top 50 trade packages in position prospects...certainly at the deadline. Other than LAD and Boston, who has/had the requisite 2 studs on the position player side that trade would have entailed...with a lighter third piece? It doesn't work with MN because they still would have held onto Jenkins since the financial consequences of the Robert deal are/were harder for them to digest. E.Rodriguez and Keachsall weren't quite there yet as stud prospects. You'd have to look at the Top 100 a year ago...but hindsight is always 20/20. Mariners wouldn't have needed him for CF. Reds? Rays too cash-strapped...although they gave Kim their biggest deal weeks ago. Campbell didn't exist a year ago for Boston...Anthony and Mayer? Of course they didn't know the seasons Duran and Raffaela would have at that point. Cubs/Sox deals always complicated...and a year ago they had Bellinger coming off an MVP votes season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: I'm still ok with what he got for Cease as were many others. The fans expectations were out of whack with what he was worth. If there’s ever a week that proves “a guy bringing a disappointing return in a trade does not mean the guy was only worth that return, it means you GM has issues”, it’s right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: If there’s ever a week that proves “a guy bringing a disappointing return in a trade does not mean the guy was only worth that return, it means you GM has issues”, it’s right now. What's going to be really hard to swallow is if Anthony and Campbell are complete studs in Boston and Mayer at least ends up as a 3-4 fWAR SS for 6-7 seasons. I'm thinking with Quero already in place...Raffaela might have been the more interesting choice, since we still don't have a plus SS, while Boston has two plus Story...who is more of a 2B at this point. Meidroth looks good on paper...BUT maybe like Madrigal, the reality of him will come up short at the big league level. Or simply Mayer and Montgomery/Abreu with no third piece. But you have to roll the dive on Braden's potential, ceiling not reached and the 2027-28 start of theoretically competitive window. Raffaela Duran Abreu all moves for "win now" teams https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF Duran had 2.0 fWAR combined for three years and then exploded to 6.7. 2.5 previous year...weren't going to trade him unless even the Red Sox didn't buy into a repeat. Raffaela is 24 and closer to Sox timeline but God knows if his offense ever matches the defensive profile. He will start season in CF apparently. David Hamilton (too old for White Sox) will start at 2B and quickly get pushed out by Campbell...Trevor Story hasn't been healthy for three years but will start season at short. Edited February 4 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, caulfield12 said: Remember...Getz was going to turn things around immediately, no time could be wasted. Trading Robert and not being able to sell the fanbase the illusion oin instant competitiveness with a new manager coming in would have made JR look like a con man. And then his value would have still taken a hit...we're not the Rays. We don't sell high and get the timing right traditionally. Everyone would have assumed there was some issue with Robert to suddenly want to trade him after a year like that. Not to mention Getz couldn't have KNOWN Crochet would have that type of season and relieve some of the pressure on stocking the farm without a #1-2-3 pick in 2025 as well. Cease is a Top 5-10 pitcher in baseball by fWAR. Huge discrepancy in valuations between the two systems. In fact, Cease is number 5 there and only trails the likes of Sale Skubal Wheeler Ragans. Fedde is #17. Still ToR numbers but not accorded that respect or value in just 3-4 months back in the big leagues. Yeah, but WAR is just one tool. Like with baseball cards, you don't get to walk into a card shop, slap down the Nolan Ryan rookie card, and yell, "ha! read it and weep!! I'll take it in 100's!!" You're dealing with FO's who want to talk about bWAR, ERA, velocity, walks, etc. Cease had a down 2023. And the market collapsed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12 minutes ago, WestEddy said: Yeah, but WAR is just one tool. Like with baseball cards, you don't get to walk into a card shop, slap down the Nolan Ryan rookie card, and yell, "ha! read it and weep!! I'll take it in 100's!!" You're dealing with FO's who want to talk about bWAR, ERA, velocity, walks, etc. Cease had a down 2023. And the market collapsed. I had that card in close to mint condition and sold too early in the 1990s...don't remind me lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 (edited) https://global.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/43611665/mlb-2025-free-agency-alex-bregman-contract-prediction-astros-tigers-red-sox-dodgers Already turned down 6/$156 million from Astros in Dec. Dodgers can't possibly be interested... Edited February 4 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 (edited) https://global.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/43682593/pitcher-tim-mayza-pittsburgh-pirates-agree-1-year-contract Could have signed LHP Mayza, traded for DFA'ed Tigers' RHP Alex Faedo, former first rounder. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/rays-to-acquire-alex-faedo.html Edited February 4 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 https://athlonsports.com/mlb/new-york-yankees/yankees-make-decision-on-former-white-sox-star-after-jazz-chisholm-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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