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Luis Robert trade thread: La Pantera stays.

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11 hours ago, Princess Dye said:

Robert will be like a Kikuchi situation. The swing data and defense/speed metrics looks good, so teams these days are so high tech they wont be bothered by the lack of production. last year Fedde was production and Kikuchi was data, and we saw what won.

On top of that Robert is a position player. Those dont become available. So i could see a (low) Top 100 prospect coming this way. Once there are a few bidders. 

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I'm still wishing for the 2 players they got from the Cubs for Bush...to part with the ML leader in steals.

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12 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

I'm still wishing for the 2 players they got from the Cubs for Bush...to part with the ML leader in steals.

Busch...sure, Z.Hope and LHP Jackson Ferris

His production has been quite bad but the underlying numbers don't look bad.

 

He is running a career low chase rate. I don't expect this to hold up completely but it is a good sign nonetheless. His barrel rate is a 12.4% which is above his career average as is his hard hit rate.

 

His xwoba is .326 vs a .271 actual wOBA.

 

He is of course striking out a lot but that always was and will be part of his package, the biggest issue is that he has run a .230 babip which shouldn't be the case with his hard hit rate.

The question is whether a team is willing to pay at least like 80 cents on the dollar based on his advanced metrics.

This guy is healthy (knock on wood) and looking like a star. Why in the hell would anybody want to trade him except one who is a fan of the archaic "tanking." (See Dallas Mavericks; no need to tank, still got the pick). Seriously when are some of u gonna mentally allow yourselves to want a Sox player for say, 10-15 years like Konerko and Abreu?

17 minutes ago, greg775 said:

This guy is healthy (knock on wood) and looking like a star. Why in the hell would anybody want to trade him except one who is a fan of the archaic "tanking." (See Dallas Mavericks; no need to tank, still got the pick). Seriously when are some of u gonna mentally allow yourselves to want a Sox player for say, 10-15 years like Konerko and Abreu?

The last contracts for Konerko and Abreu with the Astros were total disasters.

At least Konerko was more of a "lifetime loyalty/2005 WS" award.

56 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The last contracts for Konerko and Abreu with the Astros were total disasters.

At least Konerko was more of a "lifetime loyalty/2005 WS" award.

I meant Caulfield when will the "tankers" outwardly embrace having a star player to root for 10-15 years again like the old days (cough, Buehrle, cough) and Fisk and Baines and Durham and Robin and Ozzie, etc. I want continuity and not archaic tank stuff which does not work.

If Robert's trade value is virtually zero is it better just to keep him on the team until the end of the season? 

31 minutes ago, Chimpton said:

If Robert's trade value is virtually zero is it better just to keep him on the team until the end of the season? 

No.  They may as well take back whatever they can get for him, no matter the pittance.  Jerry isn’t going to approve Getz picking up Robert’s $20 million dollar team option for 2026, only his $2 million dollar buyout.

1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

No.  They may as well take back whatever they can get for him, no matter the pittance.  Jerry isn’t going to approve Getz picking up Robert’s $20 million dollar team option for 2026, only his $2 million dollar buyout.

Thanks. Also I suppose they may save some of his wages for this season which will please Jerry.

2 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

No.  They may as well take back whatever they can get for him, no matter the pittance.  Jerry isn’t going to approve Getz picking up Robert’s $20 million dollar team option for 2026, only his $2 million dollar buyout.

In fairness to Jerry, I’m not sure many teams pick up a $20M option for a sub 1 WAR player - unless he suddenly turns it on in the second half.

On pace for 2.4 bWAR though...

Benintendi -0.1 bWAR / -0.7 fWAR for his entire Sox career.

Edited by caulfield12

4 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

No.  They may as well take back whatever they can get for him, no matter the pittance.  Jerry isn’t going to approve Getz picking up Robert’s $20 million dollar team option for 2026, only his $2 million dollar buyout.

You never know. If they let Robert walk, they are out the $2mm. If they keep him, he is still tradeable, sort of. Might get part of the $20 MM back Plus, if they keep Robert next year, they don't have to pay for some other CF. So He costs less than the $18 MM. Then, if he has a decent 2026 offensively, then they might get a 2027 draft pick. You never know.

5 hours ago, greg775 said:

I meant Caulfield when will the "tankers" outwardly embrace having a star player to root for 10-15 years again like the old days (cough, Buehrle, cough) and Fisk and Baines and Durham and Robin and Ozzie, etc. I want continuity and not archaic tank stuff which does not work.

I'm confused - didn't they all get traded and/or allowed to walk away as free agents? In the case of Baines, he was traded away at two different trade deadlines.

Durham was literally dumped at the trade deadline for (for all intents and purposes) nothing.

18 minutes ago, JoeC said:

I'm confused - didn't they all get traded and/or allowed to walk away as free agents? In the case of Baines, he was traded away at two different trade deadlines.

Durham was literally dumped at the trade deadline for (for all intents and purposes) nothing.

Jon Adkins had just loads of potential despite his sky high ERA...lol.

24 minutes ago, JoeC said:

I'm confused - didn't they all get traded and/or allowed to walk away as free agents? In the case of Baines, he was traded away at two different trade deadlines.

Durham was literally dumped at the trade deadline for (for all intents and purposes) nothing.

I dunno if you heard his podcast with Chuck but Ray wanted to stay. Said he'd take a home town discount but nobody ever approached him. Was blindsided by the trade. I was livid when it happened and that brought it all back. Ray had some great years after he left. 

5 hours ago, Chimpton said:

If Robert's trade value is virtually zero is it better just to keep him on the team until the end of the season? 

Yes.

data being so leaguewide and predictive now - i am wondering... what are the circumstances where a star hitting prospect even gets traded? the traits are so visible to the team's own people, if those people have the right power allotted to them, and trust. you may not be able to predict exactly which prospects become stars but you can probably correctly rope off a group of star-eligible prospects and not miss one. and keep those hands-off from teams.

That landscape..is why we got Quero. that was a rash decision made by Arte Moreno at the deadline, and part of it was to try to give Ohtani a ring and a reason to stay. Ohtani = $$

and Angels GM feeling pressures, not just using his thought process.

Edited by Princess Dye

16 minutes ago, The Mighty Mite said:

Yes.

Yes, because it isn’t our $20 million.  But we all know that isn’t going to happen with Jerry around.

Edited by WhiteSox2023

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

In fairness to Jerry, I’m not sure many teams pick up a $20M option for a sub 1 WAR player - unless he suddenly turns it on in the second half.

Yeah, I can see that rationale.  And if Robert ends up sucking for two seasons straight, would you really take the chance on him at $20 million that he has a comeback season in 2026?

Robert missed the memo.  At least Davis Martin gets the point.

Edited by WhiteSox2023

10 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Yes, because it isn’t our $20 million.  But we all know that isn’t going to happen with Jerry around.

At this point we probably wouldn’t get that much for him, the ideal situation would be that Robert gets out of his funk and becomes the hitter we expected him to be and spends the rest of his career with the Sox. He is still a one of the best centerfielders in MLB and steals bases.  

 

 

12 minutes ago, The Mighty Mite said:

At this point we probably wouldn’t get that much for him, the ideal situation would be that Robert gets out of his funk and becomes the hitter we expected him to be and spends the rest of his career with the Sox. He is still a one of the best centerfielders in MLB and steals bases.  

 

 

I don’t think Jerry would pay him $40 million over 2026 and 2027 even if he turned it around this season.

12 minutes ago, The Mighty Mite said:

At this point we probably wouldn’t get that much for him, the ideal situation would be that Robert gets out of his funk and becomes the hitter we expected him to be and spends the rest of his career with the Sox. He is still a one of the best centerfielders in MLB and steals bases.  

I would rather get anything for him than letting him walk for nothing. I can't see a scenario where he struggles/gets hurt again this year and the Sox pick up a $20 million option on him. They can get out of the deal for $2 million, its kind of a no brainer as much as I want to see Robert be the player we've seen before. 

If he gets hot leading up to the trade deadline and the offers aren't anything you like, sure, it makes sense then to keep him around and maybe something better comes up over the winter or into next season. This depends on Robert though, because if he's a .600-.650 OPS guy there's just no way they pick that option up. Were getting that production from guys like Baldwin, Taylor, Slater, and Tauchman for a fraction of the cost. 

13 minutes ago, T R U said:

I would rather get anything for him than letting him walk for nothing. I can't see a scenario where he struggles/gets hurt again this year and the Sox pick up a $20 million option on him. They can get out of the deal for $2 million, its kind of a no brainer as much as I want to see Robert be the player we've seen before. 

If he gets hot leading up to the trade deadline and the offers aren't anything you like, sure, it makes sense then to keep him around and maybe something better comes up over the winter or into next season. This depends on Robert though, because if he's a .600-.650 OPS guy there's just no way they pick that option up. Were getting that production from guys like Baldwin, Taylor, Slater, and Tauchman for a fraction of the cost. 

I agree. I think the big question, is this version of Robert with 20 million especially with the injury history.

5 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

No.  They may as well take back whatever they can get for him, no matter the pittance.  Jerry isn’t going to approve Getz picking up Robert’s $20 million dollar team option for 2026, only his $2 million dollar buyout.

They could keep him, buy out his option, offer him a QA, and when he signs somewhere, the draft pick will probably be worth more than anything they get for him. 

13 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

They could keep him, buy out his option, offer him a QA, and when he signs somewhere, the draft pick will probably be worth more than anything they get for him. 

Good point. That draft pick may be worth it. I don't know how that works with the option years though. If they decline the option, can they still give him a QO?

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